Mediaboss Marketing

On October 1, 2023, the ousted Afghan government of President Ashraf Ghani closed its embassy in India, weeks ahead of the arrival in Kabul of the Chinese Ambassador to Taliban-led Afghanistan. The vacuum left by the United States withdrawal from Afghanistan is growing in significance as China strives to increase its presence in the face of Indias wait and watch approach. In the wake of these developments, Afghanistan can either turn out to be a ground for confrontation or cooperation between China and India. Instability in Afghanistan and the resurgence of terrorism is a collective security threat to both India and China, therefore, cooperation through regional platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) can best serve the interest of both the states.

Instability in Afghanistan and the resurgence of terrorism is a collective security threat to both India and China, therefore, cooperation through regional platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) can best serve the interest of both the states.

Two Years of Taliban Rule Has Consequences for Regional Stability:

On August 6, 2021, the Taliban took charge of governance in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the United States. Ever since, the question of whether to recognize the Taliban regime has posed a challenge for the international community. For many in the international community, the Afghan Taliban is considered a violent non-state actor that established de-facto control over the region for the second time. During the regimes first tenure in the 1990s, their orthodox policies brought them a great deal of criticism on the grounds of womens rights and human security. With their return to power in 2021, the Taliban has still resorted to the same approach of brutally enforcing their version of shariah.

After more than two years of Taliban rule, militant groups have resurged on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, leading to a new wave of terrorism. This naturally poses a grave threat to regional stability and is thus a concern for India and China as regional stakeholders. Because India and China have vested stakes in the stability of Afghanistan and the region, both states have an incentive to put aside geopolitical competition to coordinate with each other to build stability in Afghanistan.

Chinas Growing Stakes in Afghanistan:

Afghanistan is significant for China for three main reasons. Following the U.S. withdrawal, China has sought influence in Afghanistan to compete with U.S. dominance in the existing global order. Both states vie for regional actors trust, to keep them out of each others influence. Before Kabuls fall, Chinese officials invited the Taliban to Tianjin, signaling a willingness to engage. Given Afghanistanschallenge to the U.S. and NATO, China has opted for caution to dodge excessive responsibility. Espousing the Afghan-led, Afghan-owned principle, China maintains a principle of non-intervention in Afghanistans domestic affairs.

Nevertheless, China has maintained its footprint in Afghanistan by providing aid and deepening economic ties. In September 2021, China sent $31 million in aid to Afghanistan and 3 million COVID-19 vaccine doses. In January 2023, the Taliban regime signed an oil-extraction deal with a Chinese company Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Co (CAPEIC), worth $150 million/year with the potential to create 3,000 jobs. The Taliban regime has also signed seven agreements with China, worth $6.5 billion, for the extraction of gold, iron ore, zinc and lead.

On May 5, 2023 China, Pakistan, and the Taliban agreed to admit Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This move, owing to Afghanistans strategic location, offers China a direct route to economic integration in Iran and Central Asia. However, recent terrorist attacks on Chinese-owned infrastructure in Pakistan underlie the risks of an unstable Afghanistan to the BRIs key project, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)). This rise in Chinas economic sway in Afghanistan contests Indias regional standing.

Finally, China views the potential for extremist activity penetrating from border states like Afghanistan as a major security concern, particularly affecting its Muslim minority in Xinjiang. Chinas authoritarian regime perceives the alleged vulnerability of Xinjiangs Muslim population as a threat, making a stable Afghanistan crucial. Thus, China maintains a cautious approach to collaboration with the Taliban, declaring that it never interferes in Afghanistans internal affairs, never seeks selfish interests in Afghanistan, and never pursues so-called sphere of influence.

What Does This Mean for India?

Indias approach towards Afghanistan balances the expectations of Western allies in addition to its own regional considerations. Indias primary considerations with respect to Afghanistan are to contain the spread of terrorism and prevent a pro-Pakistani regime in Afghanistan. Now that the Taliban, which India perceives as a proxy of Pakistan, is in power, India must decide what level of engagement it should have with the de facto government while balancing its concerns over historic terror group connections the Taliban maintains. However, Indias geopolitical relationships with Western nations and principles of democracy and human rights hinder its recognition of the Taliban, unlike China.

Indias approach to dealing with the Taliban emphasizes promoting peace without direct involvement. Initially, India supported the UNSCs Resolution 2593 and the double-peace initiative. The double-peace initiative proposed two steps towards peace in Afghanistan: internal dialogue and external dialogue. Resolution 2593 condemned the Kabul Airport attack and highlighted the urgency of aid in Afghanistan, but China abstained from supporting it. Immediately after the fall of Kabul, India launched Operation Devi Shakti to evacuate Indians and maintained embassy operations, which facilitated the successful Emergency-X-Misc visa policy that introduced quick e-visas to migrants.

India maintains a line of communication with the Taliban, and also continued to provide aid to Afghans through infrastructure, education, capacity building, and community development. In 2022, India dispatched a technical mission to Afghanistan to assess the situation on the ground and suggest policy measures. Since then, India provided over 80 million pounds of wheat, almost 150 thousand pounds of pharmaceuticals, 500,000 COVID-19 vaccine doses, and 13 batches of medical supplies. The extent of active investment from India indicates that Afghanistan is of critical importance to the country and its competition with Chinese influence. Nevertheless, the two states can find a ground to cooperate over matters of mutual interest.

Keeping in view the persistent stakes of both India and China in Afghanistan, the closure of the Afghan Embassy in India challenges Indias wait and watch policy. However, if India revives the operation of the Afghan Embassy on its soil to provide aid and compete with Chinas influence on the country, it cannot do so without recognizing the Taliban regime. While recognizing the Taliban entails the burden of recognizing their ties to terrorist groups and their harsh treatment of women, silence could damage India-Afghanistan relations and erode the Afghan peoples trust in India- enabling China to replace it as the supportive regional power.

If India revives the operation of the Afghan Embassy on its soil to provide aid and compete with Chinas influence on the country, it cannot do so without recognizing the Taliban regime

Contest or Collaboration?

Since India and China hold a shared interest in countering terrorism and promoting regional stability, cooperation is a preferable option for both states. If both develop a collaborative approach towards Afghanistan, they can prevent the country from further fragmentation. India should cooperate with China in Afghanistan by using regional platforms, like the SCO, to forge consensus over terrorism and instability in Afghanistan as a collective security threat.

The arrival of the Chinese ambassador in Afghanistan in September 2023 ended the question of Chinas recognition of the Taliban regime. For India, however, the dilemma persists. With the termination of the Afghan mission in India that had been in place since the tenure of Ashraf-Ghani, India is once again in a catch-22.

If India prioritizes humanitarianism over restoring diplomatic relations, China is likely to have an uncontested space to advance its influence in the region. Chinas influence in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Maldives has already challenged Indias regional dominance. Gaining a foothold in Afghanistan will not only allow China to influence Indias relationship with Afghanistan, but also with Iran and Central Asian states. Therefore, Indian officials ought to coordinate with Chinese officials to build stability in Afghanistan since it would best serve the respective interests of both India and China.

Also Read:Two Years After Taliban Takeover: What is Indias Afghanistan Policy?

***

Image 1: Afghanistan flag via Flickr

Image 2: PM Modi with former President Ghani via Wikimedia Commons

Read more:
Afghanistan's Fate in the Balance: China and India's Quest for ... - South Asian Voices