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Afghanistan: No Sympathy For Pakistan

December 21, 2014: Fighting has been heavy, mainly in Kunar, Nangarhar, Ghazni, Helmand, Uruzgan, Balkh and Herat provinces during the last three days. The army reports they have killed nearly 200 Taliban while losing less than twenty soldiers. The lose losses are largely due to the troops having and using skills enabling them to spot, and then destroy or disable nearly 200 mines and roadside bombs. The Taliban do poorly in gun battles against the better armed and trained troops. The fighting was heaviest in the east (Kunar) and the south (Helmland). In Kunar Pakistani Taliban and other terrorists are trying to keep transit routes to Pakistan open and also seeking to intimidate local tribes into tolerating the presence of these foreigners. The Afghan troops were able to find and attack the enemy because several villages have been under siege by the foreign terrorists and there was some urgency about breaking those sieges so the villages could get fuel and food. This is all part of some fundamental changes in this area. Over a week ago several thousand armed tribesmen in Kunar rebelled against the Islamic terrorists and the army has come to the aid of the tribesmen. The Afghan Taliban in the area, although not on good terms with the Pakistani Taliban, have joined in fighting the soldiers, who threaten to interfere with the lucrative Taliban drug smuggling operations here.

In Kabul police ordered a two month ban on unauthorized boat use on the Kabul River. This river is merely a stream most of the year but after the Spring thaw and after the Fall harvest (when irrigation upstream is much reduced) it fills up. While blocked by three dams along its 700 kilometers length it is usable this time of year by flat bottom boats near (south of) Kabul and the police believe Islamic terrorists have been using the river to move men and bombs.

The major problem in Afghanistan continues to be (as it has for centuries) a culture of corruption that has resisted numerous attempts to reduce it. When this corruption problem is actually measured Afghanistan finds that it is one of the most corrupt nations in the world. However, Afghanistan has made some progress in the last year. In 2013 Afghanistan was in a three way tie with North Korea and Somalia at the bottom of the list of 175 nations surveyed. This year North Korea and Somalia are still at the bottom together but Afghanistan has moved up to 172. Corruption in this Transparency International Corruption Perception Index is measured on a 1 (most corrupt) to 100 (not corrupt) scale. The two most corrupt nations have a rating of 8 and the least corrupt (Denmark) is 92. African nations are the most corrupt, followed by Middle Eastern ones. In East Asia North Korea sets the standard for sleazy behavior while Afghanistan part of an arc of ancient corruption stretching from Central Asia through Pakistan to India and thence of Burma and Southeast Asia. In Afghanistan the most lethal aspect of the corruption is how it makes it easier for terrorists to operate in a major city, like Kabul. In a crowded place like that well-funded terrorists can pay off enough people to stay hidden. Thus the police know of over a hundred Islamic terrorist cells in the metropolitan Kabul area but is unable to shut down all of them because of the silence (and security) terrorist cash (and threats) can buy. Metro Kabul contains about 88 percent of the four million people in Kabul Province. The police have also found that many of the young men who join the Taliban do so because that organization is officially fighting to end corruption. Young Afghans quickly figure out that the corruption is the main cause of the poverty and backwardness in Afghanistan. Many of these recruits eventually leave the Taliban when they discover that the anti-corruption angle is more rhetoric than reality. Very real is the Taliban support of the drug gangs and the use of violence against uncooperative civilians. Most of the young idealistic recruits have a hard time accepting those two items that the Taliban does not publicize.

Somalia also excels at terrorist violence. A recent terrorism survey (Global Terrorism Index) found that five nations (Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Syria, in that order) accounted for 80 percent of all terrorism related deaths in 2013 and even more in 2014. Four Islamic terrorist organizations (ISIL, al Qaeda, Boko Haram and all flavors of the Taliban) account for nearly 70 percent of all terrorist deaths. Many of the lesser terror groups are also Islamic. In fact, of the top ten nations by terrorist activity (Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria, Syria, India, Somalia, Yemen, Philippines and Thailand) only India and the Philippines had a significant minority of terrorist deaths that were not carried out by Moslem organizations. In those two countries the minority terrorists were leftist rebels who had not noticed the collapse of radical socialism in 1989. Meanwhile the rapid growth in Islamic terrorism violence caused the total number of terrorist acts to increase 44 percent in 2013 over 2012.

Many Islamic terrorists, including leaders, have fled the six months Pakistani Army offensive in North Waziristan for neighboring Afghanistan. These terrorists believed they would be safer in Afghanistan but the Americans, despite having withdrawn most of their troops from Afghanistan, still have special operations and intelligence forces as well as dozens of missile-armed UAVs available in Afghanistan. Thus in the last month there have been several UAV attacks against Pakistani Taliban and al Qaeda leaders in remote parts of eastern Afghanistan. This has caused over a dozen deaths, and some of the victims were senior Taliban and al Qaeda leaders. Another problem these displaced Pakistani Islamic terrorists have had is growing armed resistance by local Afghan tribesmen. The Pakistani Taliban have always tried to get along with their fellow Pushtun tribesmen just across the border but over the years the constant violence (including the American bomb and missile attacks and thousands of rockets and mortar shells fired from Pakistan by the army and police into these border areas) has turned the tribes against the Pakistani Islamic terrorists and that is reflected in increased sniping, ambushes and armed confrontations on roads. The tribes are also supplying the Americans and Afghan security forces with more information, which often leads to precise UAV missile attacks or helicopter raids by commandos on Pakistani Taliban hideouts. This is causing heavy losses among key people in the Pakistani Taliban and other Islamic terrorists in the area. This has led to discussions about moving to a safer area. The options are not good. Going back to Pakistan is dangerous and given the feuding between the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban, moving to other parts of Afghanistan is not a good idea. Meanwhile the Islamic terrorists in eastern Afghanistan are getting hammered.

Civilian deaths are up a bit, to nearly 3,200, in 2014. Since late 2001 nearly 20,000 civilians have been killed. Most of these civilian losses were the result of Taliban terror, which was limited by the fact that there were many civilians the Taliban could not attack because the potential victims were well armed or well connected (belonged to a tribe that was capable of hitting back vigorously). Since 2009 civilian deaths have been up because angry tribes increasingly interfered with Taliban operations or simply refused to aid the Taliban in any way. The Taliban struck back. While the Russians killed over 100,000 civilians a year during the 1980s the Western forces have been much less lethal during the last 13 years because most civilians sided with the foreigners and the widespread use of precision weapons. That has not helped the Taliban who have lost at least five as many men as Afghan and foreign forces have lost. In other words over 80,000 Islamic terrorists have died in Afghanistan since September 11, 2001. This is not particularly high by Afghan standards but Afghanistan has been mired in civil war for 35 years now and a growing number of Afghans just want peace and many of them have guns and will kill for peace. Thats the Afghan way.

Afghans are very concerned about what happens when all, or nearly all, of the foreign troops are gone at the end of the year. By early 2015 there will only be about 14,000 foreign troops left in Afghanistan and they will provide essential (air support, logistics, intelligence and training) support for the security forces. About a thousand of the foreign troops will fight, largely in counter-terror operations. The foreign troops also reassure many of the foreign aid workers in Afghanistan. If the violence increases after 2014 the foreign aid workers, and most of the money they bring in, will leave. Thus the war in Afghanistan is a struggle between the savage past and a more promising future. The old ways have always had a lot more support in Afghanistan than in other parts of the world and that means the bloody minded conservatives are still contenders.

In its continuing effort to gain more influence in Afghanistan Iran agreed to extend (for six months) the visas of 450,000 Afghan refugees in Iran. There are over two million of these refugees in Iran, some of them from the 1980s war with the Russians. Most Iranians want the refugees gone as the refugee camps are a base (and source) for Afghan drug smugglers and other criminals. Much of the drug problem in Iran is because of Afghan drug smugglers and dealers. Iran has over two million drug addicts as a result. The Afghan refugees complain of persecution and discrimination, but still find it preferable to live in Iran rather than in Afghanistan. Iran takes advantage of this by offering free education in Iran and there are currently over 300,000 Afghans attending Iranian schools. All of the subjects are taught with a very pro-Iran vibe.

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Afghanistan: No Sympathy For Pakistan