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CATCH YOU ON THE FLIPPITY FLIP: The House is out for three weeks of recess after an exhausting weeks long dash filled with hearings, legislation and partisan sniping. But that doesnt mean Democratic leaders arent looking ahead to what is up on their next legislative agenda.

First though, members are expected to return to their districts and hit all the messaging points: Democrats tout their legislative accomplishments, with the big one being Covid relief bill (i.e. shots in your arm, money in your pockets), while Republicans will hammer the Biden administration for the slow school reopenings and the crisis at the border and Democrats socialist agenda. This week is all district work period, but then starting the week of March 29th, the House is expected to have two weeks of committee work, remotely.

The recess comes as Democrats are eying their next agenda targets, including possibly muscling priorities on drug pricing, climate change policy goals and immigration through Congress via the budget reconciliation process, Sarah reports (theyd still need to get that legislation past the Senate parliamentarian). All three are major goals Democrats want to get accomplished both to run on in next years midterm elections and in case Republicans take over the House majority in the next Congress.

As Sarah writes: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer havent formally decided to use the budgetary tool known as reconciliation for Bidens next major priority, an infrastructure and jobs plan. Biden and top Democrats are still publicly courting Republicans for his proposal. But given the Senate GOPs continued reluctance, many senior Democrats in both chambers believe it will be the ultimate path.

And House Budget Committee Chairman John Yarmuth (D-Ky.) says he believes many different health care and climate bills could survive the budget rules, as well as some aspects of immigration policy: Not everything, but I think certain things can.

There is also that lingering frustration over the Senate filibuster. The chorus can get louder, but if some key Dems dont budge, it will be just that: An opera singing Andrea Bochellis Time to Say Goodbye, without an actual departure.

More here from Sarah: http://politi.co/3sb1dX5

AND ACROSS THE CAPITOL: The Senate is in with nominations on the docket, including President Joe Bidens pick to lead the Labor Department, Marty Walsh -- the last outstanding cabinet nominee awaiting confirmation.

The Senate, which got through Bidens confirmations faster than it did for both the Obama and Trump administrations, is also poised to confirm five more nominations this week that Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has filed cloture on, including Shalanda Young for OMB Deputy Director, Vivek Murthy for Surgeon General, Rachel Levine for Assistant Secretary at HHS, David Turk for Deputy Energy Secretary, and Wally Adeyemo for Deputy Treasury Secretary.

PPP = Planning to Pass Paychecks: The Senate, which is also out next week, must do something about the Paycheck Protection Program this week, before it is set to expire at the end of this month, on the 31st. The House bill, the PPP Extension Act of 2021, would extend the program until May 31. Schumer, who has filed cloture on this legislation, has said they plan to pass the measure ASAP.

On tap today: Biden will also speak to Senate Dems as part of their retreat tonight. It is closed to the press, but dont worry, we will have our Senate team on the prowl for news nuggets.

Starting today: Schumers newly appointed Senate sergeant at arms leadership team starts today, marking the first time that office is fully staffed by women since its creation in 1789. Lieutenant General Karen Gibson is serving as the Sergeant at Arms, Kelly Fado as the Deputy Sergeant at Arms and Jennifer Hemingway as Chief of Staff:

Related: Outlook: Senate faces deadline to extend pandemic loans program for small businesses, by the National Journals Zach Cohen and Casey Wooten: http://bit.ly/3cVVvlr

ONE FOOT IN, ANOTHER ONE OUT: The House GOP is looking at the fresh new face of Julia Letlow, who won the Louisiana special election on Saturday, and then losing a known face after Rep. Tom Reed (R-N.Y.) announced he will not seek re-election to the House nor will he run for governor following allegations of sexual misconduct that came out on Friday.

Letlow took lemons and made lemonade out of a horrible situation after her husband, former Rep.-elect Luke Letlow, died of Covid shortly before he was slated to be sworn into Congress. Letlow, the mother of two small children, launched her campaign and has received a lot of support on Capitol Hill.

In contrast to her rise, Reed, in a lengthy statement, apologized to Nicolette Davis, who detailed how, when she was a young lobbyist attending a dinner in 2017, Reed began touching her back and unhooking her bra. Reed, co-chairman of the House Problem Solvers Caucus, said he was struggling with alcohol at the time and later checked himself into treatment. He wrote in his statement that consistent with my recovery, I publicly take ownership. He had initially denied the allegations, stating that he had a different account of that night.

As NBCs Garret Haake aptly points out: About as complete of an apology & statement taking ownership of past actions as I can recall seeing from a politician.

Davis, an ex-lobbyist, responded: "I am grateful for Congressman Reeds reflection on his actions. I hope that his words and actions will be an example for others who face similar allegations.

While her tip to the Washington Post came before Reed had announced his interest in a potential gubernatorial bid as Governor Andrew Cuomo faced a growing list of allegations of sexual misconduct, Reed had taken the position that combating sexual violence and harassment was a top priority of his in Congress. He recently called for Cuomo to be impeached.

Reeds district, which is just above the New York-Pennsylvania border and south of Buffalo, is considered a safe GOP stronghold. Former President Donald Trump won the 23rd District 11 points against Biden in November, and 15 points when Trump ran against Hillary Clinton in 2016.

But as Cook Political Reports Dave Wasserman notes: If NY Dems override the commission and redraw the map for 2022, pretty good bet #NY23 gets eliminated or combined w/ #NY27 Rep. Chris Jacobs (R).

Roll Calls Herb Jackson has more on Reed and his apology: http://bit.ly/2OLBHJL

A message from McDonald's:

Protecting our restaurant crew and customers is our number one priority. McDonalds national COVID safety plan is fact-based, data-driven, and informed by epidemiologists and health authorities. As science evolves, we update our plan. We train and retrain to always stay on top of whats happening. Thats Safety + Commitment.Learn more at mcdonalds.com/safety

HAPPY MONDAY! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill on this March 22, where cameras -- including police cams -- can sure catch the darndest things.

FRIDAYS MOST CLICKED: The Jewish Insiders story on the Chabad chief in the House was the big winner.

PUPS OF CAPITOL HILL: New week, new pup pictures! We have one more day or so before we dive into the final rounds of the pup photo com-paw-tition. The Friday winners advancing to the next round: Albert Bertie Sanders Golden, Norman Cutler and Toby. Be sure to throw your favorite pooches a bone and vote for your favorite, and make sure you get your friends involved in this bi-paw-tisan competition others certainly are. Up on deck today: Batch 9Batch 10.

RHETORIC OR LEGAL REALITIES?: Michael Sherwin, the federal prosecutor who up until recently was leading the Justice Departments inquiry into the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, told 60 Minutes in an interview that aired Sunday he believes the federal government has obtained evidence that meets the bar of charging suspects with sedition, a rare charge.

I personally believe the evidence is trending toward that, and probably meets those elements, Sherwin said. I believe the facts do support those charges and I think that, as we go forward, more facts will support that.

Seamus Hughes, Deputy Director of the Program on Extremism at George Washington University, noted that Sherwin didnt bring sedition charges against anyone in the seven weeks that he led the investigation even after hinting in January that such charges were forthcoming. Theres a difference between prosecutorial rhetoric & legal realities, Hughes tweeted.

Reuters has more on Sherwins interview: http://reut.rs/2OMZwAZ

Related: Assaulting the truth, Ron Johnson helps erode confidence in government, by the NYTs Trip Gabriel and Reid Epstein: http://nyti.ms/2QjrF2G

MEANWHILE, Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) is warning that a bipartisan 9/11-like commission to probe the Capitol Hill riot may delay needed security improvements.

"The Congress itself has the capacity here to move forward," the No. 4 GOP Senate leader said Sunday on NBC News Meet the Press. "That doesn't mean I'm opposed to a commission, but frankly, I would believe that commission would probably be a reason to wait and not do the things that we know we need to do right now." Our Zachary Warmbrodt has the story: http://politi.co/2OUaWmk

NOT SO TRANSPARENT: Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are calling on the Biden administration to open up Customs and Border Protection facilities to journalists.

"This should be transparent, Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, the top Republican on the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, told CBS News. It's amazing to me how little my constituents know about what's going on down along the border. It is a situation spiraling out of control."

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) told NPR over the weekend that we should all press the administration to do better on opening up access to media coverage at these facilities, noting that while there are young children in these facilities who are at incredibly vulnerable points in their life, he added that he believes there's a way for DHS to do it. More here from CBSs Nicole Sganga: http://cbsn.ws/2ND1XFs

The bipartisan push comes as Axios Jonathan Swan reports that an internal Department of Homeland Security document showed 823 unaccompanied migrant children held in border patrol custody for more than 10 days, more than a fourfold increase over the past week.

IOWA 2ND: Nine of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump earlier this year called on Pelosi over the weekend to end the House probe into the results of the contested House race in Iowas 2nd District. In a letter to the speaker, the nine lawmakers voiced extreme dismay over Democrats challenge of the race in Iowa, arguing it will undermine confidence in the electoral process -- just as Trump did in 2020, WaPos Marianna Sotomayor reports: http://wapo.st/3rbtQCh

Our Playbook friends report that the effort to oust GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in favor of Rita Hart (D) has been blessed by the top echelons of House Democratic leadership. And the DCCC has brought in and is paying the legal fees for top Democratic election lawyer Marc Elias, this person said.

Expect this to start -- not that it hasnt already -- a series of finger pointing and claims of hypocrisy as anti-certification Republicans call foul for Congress becoming involved in this election process and Democrats weighing flipping state-certified election results.

How some Mods feel: I dont think theres the slightest chance that that would happen, Rep. David Price (D-N.C.) said on Fox News.

Related: Jim Clyburn is ticking off some in the White House. Hes perfectly fine with that, by our Natasha Korecki: https://politi.co/3tJOHOE

A message from McDonald's:

CAMPAIGN CENTRAL:

-Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.) is expected to announce his Senate bid today and could receive a coveted Trump endorsement in the foreseeable future if not on Monday, sources tell Gabby Orr and Meridith McGraw, who break down the various ways to win over Trump as well as how to alienate the former president: http://politi.co/311TaQF

-Rep. Jody Hice is expected to launch GOP challenge against Raffensperger by the AJCs Greg Bluestein: http://bit.ly/3f6Jb4D | And Trump is looking to take down Raffensberger by endorsing Hice, our Alex Isenstadt and Zach Montellaro report: http://politi.co/2NE8Sy9

-OP-ED: How this voting rights bill could turn the next election into a clusterf*ck, by The Daily Beasts Jessica Huseman: http://bit.ly/3s8HHKX

-Next up in race to replace Cedric Richmond: Gary Chambers' endorsement and how runoff might play out, by The Times-Picayune | New Orleans Advocates Tyler Bridges: http://bit.ly/2QoaJbn

-Club for Growth takes aim at impeachment backers Cheney, Anthony Gonzalez, by our Alex Isenstadt: http://politi.co/3cVIVmj

-2024 shadow campaign takes shape under Trumps watchful eye as Pompeo, Rick Scott, Tim Scott, Ron DeSantis and others show signs of presidential bids, David Siders reports: http://politi.co/3lDwtLT

CABINET CORNER:

-Today: After convening, the Senate will resume consideration of the nomination of Marty Walsh to be Bidens Secretary of Labor.

-VP Kamala Harris will swear in Isabella Guzman as Bidens Small Business Administration administrator today at 9:30 a.m.

TRANSITIONS

Vanessa Ambrosini and Alexa Henning, both Trump White House alums, are joining Sen. Ron Johnsons (R-Wis.) office as senior communications advisers. Ambrosini most recently was deputy director of public affairs at the Commerce Department. Henning most recently was director of media affairs for the Trump campaign.

Geoff Burgan will be comms director for Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.). He most recently was Arizona comms director for the Biden campaign and is a Beto ORourke and Andrew Gillum alum. Giselle Barry will be moving to deputy chief of staff and Jeremy DAloisio to legislative director.

Jon Green is now defense policy adviser for Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.). He previously was national security adviser for Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.).

Gabriella Vesey is now legislative correspondent for Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), covering health care and aging issues. She previously was legislative correspondent/aide for Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Kan.).

Amanda Fitzmorris is now press secretary for Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.). She previously was a special adviser in the Office of Research and Development at the EPA.

John Elizandro will be director of strategic comms and data at the Montana Department of Labor and Industry. He previously was senior adviser and comms director for Rep. David Rouzer (R-N.C.), and is an Erik Paulsen alum.

TODAY IN CONGRESS

The House is out.

The Senate will convene at 3 p.m.

AROUND THE HILL

11 a.m.: The House Oversight Committee will hear testimony from Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser and others about D.C. statehood.

7 p.m.: Biden will meet virtually with the Senate Democratic Caucus during their annual retreat.

TRIVIA

FRIDAYS WINNER: Zev Siegfeld was the first person to correctly guess that Gerold Ford was the President who owned a Golden Retriever named Liberty.

TODAYS QUESTION: From Zev: Which president is buried at the Albany Rural Cemetery, in Albany, NY?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answer to [emailprotected].

GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning.

Follow Olivia on Twitter: @Olivia_Beavers

A message from McDonald's:

Safety + Commitment: Protecting our restaurant crew and customers is our number one priority. Over the last year, we have developed a comprehensive, national COVID safety plan to help ensure that McDonalds remains a safe place to eat and to work. Safety + Science: McDonalds COVID safety plan is fact-based, data-driven, and informed by epidemiologists and health authorities. Every time CDC guidelines are updated, as science evolves, we update our plan. Safety + Training: Early on, we created a nationally recognized set of COVID safety standards. All 850,000 managers and crew were trained on its effective usage. We train and retrain on safety, to always stay on top of whats happening. And provide the protection that our customers, crew and communities expect from us.Learn more at mcdonalds.com/safety

Read more here:
Dems sell Covid bill at home and eye reconciliation for their return - Politico

Andrew Cuomo should have known theyd come for him.

New Yorks Democratic governor often scolding and demeaning; at times a bully had made plenty of enemies over the years. He appeared almost daily on cable news, painting a picture of a decisive, effective leader in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. It found traction, contrasted with then-President Donald Trumps denials, inaction and dangerous absurdities that made doctors cringe.

His abrasive and condescending style with political adversaries, with the press, even with Democratic allies he considered rivals or insufficiently deferential to him lit a fuse. First came evidence that his administration had significantly shorted the count of COVID-19 nursing home deaths across New York. Then came claims from numerous women that Cuomo made unwanted advances ranging from indecent suggestions to groping. The resulting detonation has blown his governorship to bits.

Calls for his resignation are nearly universal. Even President Joe Biden who also survived accusations of improper touching said in an ABC News interview last week that if an investigation validates the womens allegations, not only should he resign, he would probably be prosecuted.

Virginia has been there, done that and mailed the kids postcards.

Two years ago, separate, simultaneous scandals provoked loud and widespread cries for the departures of all three of Virginias top statewide elective officeholders.

First, on Feb. 1, 2019, Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam encountered the mother of all PR nightmares when a Republican blogger discovered a photo on Northams medical school yearbook page showing one man dressed in blackface standing beside another in Klan regalia. That night, in a panic, Northam and his advisers issued a statement in which Northam apologized for appearing in the picture.

The next day, however, after a late night of phone calls with old medical school friends and classmates, Northam reversed himself, announcing in a nationally televised news conference that he was not in the photo, but admitting to applying shoe polish to his face for a Michael Jackson dance contest in the 1980s.

As calls from state and national leaders reached hurricane force, Northam hunkered down to ride it out.

Prominent among those calling for Northam to go was Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax, a fellow Democrat who stood to succeed him and become Virginias second Black governor. His potential shortcut to the throne was sidetracked when two women alleged that Fairfax had sexually assaulted them in the early 2000s, allegations Fairfax has repeatedly and vehemently denied. Instantly, demands for Fairfaxs resignation ensued, relieving some of the pressure on Northam.

Then Attorney General Mark Herring, who also had clamored for Northams exit, disclosed that he, too, had once applied brown makeup and a wig to impersonate rapper Kurtis Blow for a party during his University of Virginia frat boy days.

For weeks, Virginias entire Democratic power triumvirate seemed to teeter at the precipice. But all three remain in office. Fairfax is a candidate in a large, diverse Democratic gubernatorial field.

Northam, uniquely barred by Virginias Constitution from seeking re-election, has proved to be one of the commonwealths most consequential governors. He went from being a pariah in the winter of 2019 to helping position fellow Democrats for electoral triumphs that fall that gave them majorities in the state House and Senate for the first time in a generation. Under full Democratic rule, Virginia has reformed its election laws, passed new gun control measures, decriminalized marijuana and approved its eventual recreational use and abolished the death penalty in making historically conservative Virginia the Souths most progressive state.

A review of the yearbook scandal commissioned by the Eastern Virginia Medical School concluded that neither person in the photo could be identified and that the origin of the photo could not be determined.

Herring, who had been weighing a gubernatorial run, is seeking re-election a prospect made more interesting by Northams endorsement of Herrings primary challenger, Del. Jay Jones of Norfolk.

Fairfaxs situation most closely parallels Cuomos. He has insisted that the encounters with his accusers were consensual. Unlike Cuomo, no other women have made claims against Fairfax. He has not been charged in either encounter and, from the outset, has called for independent investigations that so far have not materialized. He filed a $400 million defamation lawsuit against CBS News over interviews CBS This Morning did with his accusers in 2019 and is appealing a lower courts dismissal of the case to the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.

Set aside moral considerations for a moment and consider Cuomos dilemma from a realpolitik perspective: why should he unilaterally abdicate power given Virginias outcomes? Consider, too, how Trump shrugged off numerous womens claims and even his own hot-mic boasts about taking obscene liberties with women only to be elected president and remain in office for a full single term.

But in the second decade of the 21st century, how could anyone in such a position of power behave as though the misogynist Mad Men culture of the 1960s, when men sometimes considered the office a sexual hunting ground, still applies?

No one should imagine that sexual harassment or even sexual assault are vanquished. It still happens and, perhaps, always will. But now, at last, there are swift and terminal consequences for it in the #MeToo world. Companies spend huge sums of money training employees to identify, avoid and report sexual harassment and assault. Its untenable for C-suite executives and even mid-level managers in todays corporate world. Even consensual workplace romances are viewed harshly by HR departments, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a leading national outplacement firm.

So how is it that the nations most powerful elected leaders supposedly exemplars of the best in America seem to get away with it? When did it become survivable in politics?

Bill Clinton and Gennifer Flowers. 1992, said political scientist Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University.

The claim by Flowers, a Little Rock cabaret singer and TV reporter, of a 12-year affair with Clinton, then the governor of Arkansas, came as Clinton positioned himself in that years crowded Democratic presidential primaries. Days after The Star tabloid published the allegation, Hillary Clinton appeared at the side of her husband for a joint 60 Minutes interview. He denied improprieties with Flowers but acknowledged wrongdoing (and) causing pain in my marriage. He survived it and subsequent revelations during his presidency. He was impeached over lying to a federal grand jury about his relationship with White House intern Monica Lewinsky but avoided conviction and removal from office in the Senate.

Remember that just one election cycle before that, the frontrunner had been knocked out of the race over allegations of infidelity that he had denied, said Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Government and Policy at George Mason University. Sen. Gary Hart of Colorado, then 50, withdrew from the 1988 Democratic field, done in by newspaper reports of an extramarital relationship with Donna Rice, then a 29-year-old actress and model.

What changed?

Much of it comes down to how the political figure handles the issue, whether he is transparent and confronts the accusations honestly and is able to convince the public that certain private actions have no bearing on public performance Rozell said. I think that was the big distinction many people made in 1992.

Will it work for Cuomo? Time will tell.

The New York legislature has begun an impeachment inquiry of Cuomo. And a new Quinnipiac Poll shows that while his support has slipped, 49 percent of state residents surveyed said he should not resign and 43 percent say he should.

As his number of accusers grew, he finally got around to apologizing, but in doing so, denied ever touching anyone appropriately. It had the feel of mea culpa prompted not so much by what was done but by getting caught doing it.

But for all his words of contrition, the lead of the story remains this: he flatly refused to resign.

If past is precedent, he probably wont have to.

Read the original here:
Cuomo: Resign or stay put? In Virginia, we've been there, done that. - Virginia Mercury

The same year, 2013, a bipartisan gun background check measure, sponsored by Manchin and Pennsylvania RepublicanPatrick J. Toomey, won a majority but failed to get past the Senates filibuster threshold partly because four Democrats voted against it. Last year, the Senate fell five votes short of 60 on a policing measure sponsored by South Carolina RepublicanTim Scott.

That Schumer would choose to test McConnell rather than pursue these past bipartisan efforts indicates just how inflexible politics has become on Capitol Hill, and how Democrats see political gain in taking a stand on the filibuster.

Democrats see their best shot at beating the odds in the 2022 midterm elections, and either maintaining or expanding their majorities, by keeping their coalition of progressive whites and minority voters engaged.

While Democrats share of the former grew in the 2020 presidential race, their share of the minority vote shrank. Donald Trump took 12 percent of African American ballots, up from 8 percent in 2016, and 32 percent of the Latino vote, also 4 points higher than he did in his victory over Hillary Clinton.

Democrats plan to use their elections bill, which would require states to permit early and mail-in voting and, for states with voter ID laws, to accept a sworn statement in lieu of an ID card, and the coming fight over the filibuster, to appeal to minority voters.

Read more:
Democrats pushing to weaken the filibuster say it enables racism - Roll Call

The leaders of the European Union and Turkey held talks by videoconferenceon Friday, ahead of next week's EU summit that will address the bloc's relations with Ankara.

"We underlined the importance of sustained de-escalation and of further strengthening confidence-building to allow for a more positive EU-Turkey agenda," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement after the discussion.

"The presidents also exchanged views on the situation of Syrian refugees hosted in Turkeyas well as the wider regional situation including Libya and Syria," the EU statement added.

The video call between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel was arranged to try to improve ties between Brussels and Ankara that had become fraught in recent years.

The issuesinclude: Erdogan's power grab and the rollback of democracy, Turkey's involvement in conflicts in Libya, Syria and indirectlyNagorno-Karabakh, a spat over energy exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and accusations that Ankara has used Syrian refugees staying in the country as a political pawn to win EU concessions.

EU foreign ministers are expected to discuss a joint report on relations with Turkey on Monday ahead of thesummit ofEU heads of state and government later in the week.

Leaders are expected to discuss updating a 2016 migrant deal under which Turkey has curbed entries into Europe in exchange forfinancial support from Brussels.

Erdogan told the video call that Turkey expects next week's discussions to "pave the way for concrete work," on rebuilding ties, his office said.

The Turkish president said he hopes the EU report will reflect "objective and constructive views" on how Turkey-EU relations can move forward.

Erdogan called on Brussels not to allow Greece and Greek Cypriots to gang up on Turkey, and instead urged increased dialogue to resolve the eastern Mediterranean dispute.

During Friday's talks, the three leaders also discussed the possibility of a visit to Turkey soon, according to an EU statement.

Turkey and Greece have been at odds overmaritime boundaries and natural gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean, which saw Brussels threaten Ankara with sanctions, although these have since been put on hold.

Turkey had sent navy warships to protect its research vessels operating in the disputed waters, but has since softened its stance.

The EU is also closely following UN efforts to restart peace talks over Cyprus in which Turkey is a key player.

mm/rs (AFP, dpa)

See the rest here:
EU chiefs urge Turkey's Erdogan to ease strained ties with bloc - DW (English)

As the Syrian crisis enters its 11th year this month, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has appealed for Western support in Syria in an apparent hope to advance plans for a safe zone along the Turkish border and hamper Russia in Idlib, if not revive his regime-change ambitions.

In a March 15 article for Bloomberg, Erdogan argues that restoring peace in Syria depends on strong Western support for Turkey and that the most sensible option for Western leaders is to throw their weight behind Turkey and become part of the solution in Syria, at minimum cost and with maximum impact.

Erdogans emphasis on minimum cost has unpleasant political connotations in Turkey, dating back to the early years of the Cold War, when American leaders would often advocate military partnership with Turkey as a cheap way of advancing US security interests. In remarks to Congress in 1953, for instance, Secretary of State John Foster Dulles argued that Turkish soldiers get 23 cents a month, while US soldiers would cost you 10 times as much. Such comparisons left lasting marks in Turkeys political lexicon and the great Turkish poet Nazim Hikmet, an avowed socialist, even penned a poem titled The 23-cent soldier. For many, military collaboration with the United States remains akin to being Americas cheapest soldiers.

In his article, Erdogan describes Idlib as the oppositions final stronghold, never mind that the province is controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which Ankara itself designates as a terrorist group, and other al-Qaeda-inspired factions. He claims Turkey saved millions of lives in Idlib a year ago when it struck regime positions to stop attacks on the region. Yet Turkeys intervention in Idlib in February 2020, which claimed the lives of dozens of its soldiers, failed to stop regime forces from taking control of the key M5 highway and besieging Turkish military outposts in the region. Moreover, the population in the area was hardly in the millions as locals had already fled their homes in droves. More crucially, the groups Erdogan calls the opposition are the same groups he pledged to eliminate in two deals with Russia in September 2018 and March 2020.

Erdogan frames the Syrian conflict as the terrible outcomes, including terrorism and irregular migration, of the regimes crackdown on popular demands for freedom and democracy, obscuring Ankaras role in militarizing the conflict through weapons transfers to the rebels with CIA help in the early years of the conflict and loose border control that allowed foreign jihadis to cross to Syria. While stressing the need to preserve Syrias unity, Erdogan seems to insist on a regime change, writing, The Turkish people believe that creating a political system, capable of representing all Syrians, is key to restoring peace and stability. We reject any plan that does not address the Syrian peoples demand for human dignity.

Erdogan boasts that Turkey was the first country to deploy combat troops against terrorist groups in Syria, even though he had gloated at the Islamic States (IS) onslaught on Kurdish areas along the border in 2014. US raids against IS began in September that year, while Turkey launched its first military campaign, Operation Euphrates Shield, in 2016 to stop the advances of the Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG) after their ouster of IS from northern Aleppo. The operation, which also was aimed against IS, was certainly instrumental also in dispelling criticism that Turkey was supporting the militant group.

The areas that Turkey and its Syrian rebels allies have come to control through Operation Euphrates Shield and two ensuing operations, Olive Branch and Peace Spring, have seen clashes between Turkish-backed groups, moves to alter demographics at the expense of the Kurds and myriad violations such as looting, extortion and the destruction of religious and historical sites. Erdogan, however, paints a rosy picture, writing, The safe zones, which Turkey created in cooperation with its local partners have become islands of peace and stability, as well asself-sustaining ecosystems.He refers also to a large-scale housing construction plan in northern Syria to settle up to 2 million refugees, which he had raised at the UN in 2019. According to Erdogan, Turkeys actions have sheltered Europe from irregular migration and terrorism, and secured NATOs southeastern border.

Erdogans offer to the West is not without conditions. Ankara, he writes, expects the West to adopt a clear positionagainst the YPG and support the legitimate Syrian opposition. He warns that failure to share Turkeys burden may result in fresh refugee waves to Europe. The warning evokes the crisis in February 2020, when Erdogan encouraged refugees in Turkey to cross to Europe via Greece. He now wants the West to invest in the safe zones in Syria and unequivocally endorse this peace project.

Finally, Erdogan appeals to the Joe Biden administration to stay true to its campaign pledges and work with us to end the tragedy in Syria and to defend democracy.

Less than two years ago, Erdogan was hailing the Astana process between Turkey, Russia and Iran as the sole initiative capable of producing effective solutions in Syria. And earlier this month, Turkey launched a new peace track with Russia and Qatar. Yet Erdogans Bloomberg article shows he still entertains the ambitions he had before his rapprochement with Moscow in 2016.

Despite his collaboration with Moscow, Erdogan has played a double game, waging military operations against the Kurds on the one hand while continuing to shield rebel forces on the other. By setting up more than 70 military outposts in southern Idlib over the past year, Turkey has effectively erected a barrier to the Syrian army. Erdogans offer to the West is a reminder of the value of Turkeys posture in Syria and a message to Biden who still keeps him waiting for a phone call on how the two could reconcile.

Yet the offer, in its current form, could hardly resonate with its addressees, who have harshly criticized Turkeys actions in Syria. Just last week, a European Parliament resolution denounced Turkeys illegal invasion in Syria and praised the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces as an ally against IS.

Arab states, which have collaborated with the West in Syria, are unlikely to be impressed either, as they have come to see Turkeys influence expansion as a threat. Some are already pressing for Syrias return to the Arab League to counter Turkish and Iranian influence in the region.

Erdogans condition to the West to renounce the YPG is, in fact, self-destructive to his offer. Biden has displayed little flexibility on the issue and even the Donald Trump administration, which was ready to abandon the Kurds in 2019, had to step back under pressure from Congress.

More importantly, Erdogans offer bumps into Russia, which remains a steadfast ally of Bashar al-Assads government. And any move to create a safe zone along Turkeys border depends on Russias approval. As if responding to Erdogans intended pivot to the West, the Russians have recently hit oil facilities used by Turkish-backed rebel forces.

Commenting on Erdogans article, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov asserted ongoing disagreements with Turkey in Syria. The situation in the areas of [Turkish-Russian] interaction remains quite difficult. Terrorist elements remain there, hindering normalization. Nevertheless, interaction continues, he said.

Erdogans appeal to the West might stem from a sense of urgency. By failing to fulfill his commitments in Idlib, he has been paving the way for a fresh Syrian-Russian thrust on the region. An escalation in the next couple of months would not come as a surprise. Erdogan might be trying to deter such a prospect, while offering Biden a ground for score-settling with Russia.

See more here:
What lies behind Erdogans Syria offer to the West? - Al-Monitor