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Support for the Progressive Conservatives has jumped ahead of the governing Liberals in Newfoundland and Labrador, suggests a new poll.

MQO Research's quarterly Atlantic Matters poll, released Thursday, suggests the Liberals' support is steady among decided and leaning voters at 35 per cent, the same as in the last pollin May.

But the PCs jumped from 39 per cent in May to 48 per cent in the new poll. The PCs' gain was the NDP's loss, as the New Democratsfell from 23 per cent last time to 16 per cent this quarter.

But one in three people polled, 33 per cent, say they're undecided or don't know who they support.

If the election were held today, 28 per cent would vote PC, 20 per cent Liberal, nine per cent NDP, and nine per cent wouldn't vote, or refused to answer.

Premier Dwight Ball's rating among the public remains low, with a mean rating of four on a scale of one to 10.

The poll also suggests Newfoundlanders and Labradorians are pessimistic about the provincial economy, with 56 per cent saying the general outlook is getting worse, and just eight per cent who think it's getting better.

MQO polled 600 randomly selected eligible votersacross the province by telephone from July 4 to July 19. The margin of error among decided voters is 5.2 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

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PC lead jumps while Liberals hold steady, NDP slide in latest MQO poll - CBC.ca

Trumps Failure to Use Twitter Enough to His Advantage, Simply to Provide Perspective

The biggest failure of the Trump Administration continues to be its failure to present its own policies in perspective.

President Trump is being pilloried in the press for his ban on transgenders in the military, just as all conservatives continue to be pilloried in the press for opposing same-sex marriage.

Trump should have and should rather present his ban NOT as a new draconian measure instituted by a raging rogue or lunatic but rather as RESTORING the ban that existed from time immemorial, under liberals and conservatives, Democrats and Republicans, through the first 7 years of the Obama Administration, through June 30, 2016, including both years in which Obama and the Democrats controlled both houses of Congress.

Liberals point excitedly to the fact that 18 other countries allow transgenders to serve in the military (to the extent they have militaries). But considering that there are 195 or 196 countries all together, fewer than 10% of the countries in the world allow transgenders in their militaries, even now.

Similarly, the ban on same-sex marriages existed from time immemorial , under liberals and conservatives, Democrats and Republicans, until the United States Supreme Court decided, on June 26, 2015, to usurp the powers of the people and the legislatures and the church and the dictionary to declare same-sex marriages real, let alone legal.

It should be noted that the progressive movement basically derives most of its values from liberals, where Jews have been in the forefront, from Karl Marx to Leon Trotsky to Betty Friedan to Bernie Sanders, but these values are derived directly from the Bible caring for the poor, the sick, the stranger, the widow, and the orphan (though charity in the Bible is to come from individuals as tithes, not imposed by the government or unelected governmental bureaucrats, and it may also be noted that the strangers referred to in the Bible, to be protected, did not necessarily include avowed terrorists and/or their supporters). Mainstream Jews, of course, temper their progressive instincts with the overall Biblical encouragement of moderation.

The Bible from time immemorial defined marriage as between a man and a woman and defined homosexual activities as abominations, so the people who believe homosexuals are entitled to all rights as partners but are still not entitled to call themselves spouses are in a way even more liberal than the Bible.

The Bible was not focused on transgender issues as are the liberal press and politicians, but the Bible does forbid a man from wearing a womans garment (Deuteronomy 22:5) and the prohibition has been extended to women as well, by the leading codifiers of Jewish law, generally conscious of and promoting equal rights for women, if not equal obligations (Code of Jewish Law, Shulchan Arukh YD 182:5).

The rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness do not necessarily include a dubious right to serve in combat positions in the army.

Mr. Rich is a self-described liberal with common sense and an open mind.

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Trump Transgender Ban for Military Actually RESTORES Policies of Liberals, Including Obama - Canada Free Press

OK, Democrats. Its time to stop mucking around.

Cancel the focus groups. Junk the lame slogans (what does A Better Deal even mean? Better than what, and how?)

Its time to take stock of where you arewhere we are as a country given the dire condition of the presidency and the alternatively vulturous and supine impulses of the congressional majority, and formulate a plan to pull us back from the brink.

It has been clear for some time that Democratic control of the congress is the only hope for saving the health care of tens of millions of people and reining in a president in full meltdown over Russiagate before he really breaks something.

Trumps latest gambits have the feel of a despot flailing through his final days clinging to power, making a change of leadership on Capitol Hill all the more urgent. He and his team announced a plan to turn trans peoples military service into a Karl Rovian campaign ornament to give his base in exchange for the wall he cant build and the trade agreements he cant cancel. He and his interior secretary have threatened to destroy the economy of an American statethe very red state of Alaskato try and bludgeon its junior senator into agreeing to take away her constituents health care and thus deliver the GOPs King Joffrey his win.

Worse, Trump and the leadership of the United States Senate dont even care whats in the bill, or what it does to Americans. Meanwhile, Trump is transparently seeking to muscle out his own attorney general for failing to shield Trump and his campaign team from criminal inquiries. And his new communications director is carrying on his bosss thuggish and ignorant ways, knifing the White House chief of staff on live television and Twitter, in a clumsy attempt to frame Reince Priebus as the lead West Wing leaker.

Absent Democratic control of one or both houses of Congress, Donald Trump will surely add to these abrogations of democratic norms by arranging for the firing of Bob Mueller. Republican pledges to remain in session to prevent it notwithstanding, nothing in their behavior up to now suggests this temporary bout of independence would hold, and that if Sessions was fired, they would do anything other than to dutifully snap to attention and confirm whatever lackey the White House puts in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee.

The ever-hopeful media dream is of an ending where John McCain rides heroically to Americas rescue on Russiagate, with his trusty lieutenant Lindsey Graham at his side. But McCain and Graham are not coming to the rescue. They are Party Men who support Donald Trump fully and will likely do so until the bitter end. There will be no Republican heroes. Democrats, as clumsy and scattershot as you are, are going to have to do this on your own.

A Democratic congressional victory next November, resulting in Democrats in the speakers chair and heading the relevant investigative committees, and if possible, helming the Senate too and sidelining the serpentine Mr. McConnell, is the only hope of saving or restoring Medicaid coverage to tens of millions of people who need it, preventing the total collapse of the individual health insurance markets, fully investigating this president and his team for potential collusion with a hostile foreign power, and impeaching him if it is warranted.

Thats a lot to lay on a party that until now has proved unequal to the challenge of the Trump era, and unprepared for the post-Reconstruction style backlash over the Obama era. The party that thought the parade of social progress would never end, for black people and DACA recipients, and gay couples and trans people has seen a Mack truck driven through the band line. Its time to stop playing, and engage in the fight.

So what should Democrats do and say?

On the doing front, Democrats must recognize the unprecedented nature of the threat to their voters next year. Voters who lean Democraticmeaning voters of color and single womenare likely to be subjected to a national onslaught of voter suppression the likes of which has not been seen since the 1950s. That means Democrats should aim to register as many voters as they can, starting now, and mount a national information campaign to get their already registered voters to check and double check their registrations.

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Set your goal high: Aim for a million or more new registrants. And spend the money it takes to reach out to them and convince them of the urgency of the cause, and the relevance to their own wallets, given the bottom that could fall out of their own lives if they lose their health insurance or the subsidies that pay for their aging parents nursing home care. Put an army of lawyers on speed dial, because youre going to need every one of them fight a party that has proven it will do anything, including widespread disenfranchisement and even shrugging off Russian collusion in order to hang on to power. By the way, expect that the Russians will be back. They interfered with Democratic candidates down ticket from Hillary Clinton last year too.

Meanwhile, its time for the party to do a little casting. Choose your most charismatic voices, preferably some who havent worn out their welcome in cable TV green rooms, but also some tried and true All Stars. Kamala Harris, Joe Kennedy, Al Franken, Eric Swalwell, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar come to mind, as do state-level stars like Mitch Landrieu, Stacey Abrams, and Gavin Newsom. Get your congressional and gubernatorial candidates out there too, not just on TV, but in every blue and purple state and every major urban center.

As to what they should say, the message seems pretty simple: Its time to cancel this dangerous and embarrassing reality show and get back to rebuilding America and the American dream.

Rebuilding America requires a few fundamentals. Luckily, one of them is not that red states and blue states fall in love with each other. That dream is just not on the table right now. Theres too much enmity. Too much water under the bridge. Obamas election and reelection broke something in the body politic. Maybe one day it will get repaired, but it wont by the next election. Everyone wants their particular views affirmed and for their opponents to be obliterated. If either the red or the blue states were to propose secession today, the other side would likely say dont let the door hit you on the way out.

But given the urgency of the moment, our disunity doesnt really matter that much now.

America is like a house full of squabbling relatives. We dont have to like each other, but we damned sure better fix the roof before it starts raining.

And our roof is leaking where it counts: in the working of our democracy. Right now, the Congress isnt functioning. The White House sure as hell isnt. Were creaking along on aging, ragged infrastructure. Millions of our fellow citizens fear they or their moms, dads, grandparents or children will be left to face sickness and financial collapse in one fell swoop. Still othersthirst for jobs where they are scarce, or freedom from fear of police. And we face waning confidence among our allies that we are a strong, reliable ally that is not being dictated to and toyed with by a foreign adversary and that we are led by a sound, sane leader.

Democrats must sound the alarm but stay focused. They must succinctly and powerfully tell the country that if given control of Congress, they will do a small number of concrete things, and leave the great driving dream to 2020.

First and foremost: They will save Americans health care by guarding Medicaid, while fixing the very real problems in the individual insurance market, together with any Republicans who will join them, and in consultation with the nations governors.

Second: They will pass legislation, also crafted by working with the states, to invest in literally rebuilding Americaour roads and bridges, highways, electrical grids and water and sewer systems; to finally give us a 21st century national transportation system and to ensure every household has access to the Internet, creating jobs and opportunity. If Republicans cry tax hikes, remind them of their push to steal a trillion dollars from Medicaid to hand over to the wealthy. Thats your money, too, America.

Third: Democrats will pass laws supporting business and scientific innovation to create jobs well into the future, including industries that promote clean air and water and make us independent of imported fossil fuels. We dont need to lie to displaced workers by pretending the coalmines and factories are coming back. America is the innovation nation. We raised entire industries from the dust and ashes of a world war and emerged to build the interstate highway system. We can do it again. We can out-build and out-innovate the world, and put our people back to work in the industries of the future. And we can use our extensive network of community colleges to retrain displaced workers so they can get in on the tech rush, too.

Fourth: Democrats will cancel the clownish Trump reality show by forcing the White House to live under real oversight, ensuring Robert Mueller can do his job (if he still has one) and giving America a real and thorough investigation of Russias intrusion into our election. No party can make Donald Trump behave like a rational adult, but he can be boxed in by a Congress willing to assert itself.

And fifth: They will return the Congress to the American people, putting an end to secret committees who write legislation behind closed doors and conspire in the dark to steal health care from the sick and the elderly in the dead of night. With an open Congress that does its business in the daylight, we can prepare to tackle the weighty issues in our culture: immigration, refugees, policing, drug legalization, and drug addiction, and whether to move to truly universal, single payer health care.

Those are big debates worth having, but we cant even begin, with the Congress and the White House in the state theyre in, and while the fundamentals of our democracy are being sawed off and hammered into dust.

The White House and the GOP want us wasting valuable time fighting over where people relieve themselves, whether to turf our thousands of serving soldiers, sailors and airmen on the whim of a man who five times refused his countrys call to service, or over whether millions of phantom voters denied Trump the popular vote he felt entitled to. They want the opposition fractured and fighting over a bygone primary thats lost to history and over which targeted group to throw over the side to lighten the boat.

Tell America you know better, Democrats. Tell Americans its time to turn off the noise and get back to rebuilding this country; this weathered house, and to have a congress that at least has the backbone to stand up and say enough to the three-ring circus at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

Continue reading here:
How the Democrats Can Pull Us Back From the Brink - Daily Beast

Soon after President Donald Trump ordered that transgender people may no longer serve in the military, one anonymous White House official boasted about how the new policy would trap Senate Democrats running for reelection in the Rust Belt: This forces Democrats to take complete ownership of the issue. How will the blue-collar voters in these states respond when senators up for reelection in 2018 like Debbie Stabenow are forced to make their opposition to this a key plank of their campaigns? Raw politics was not the only motivationPOLITICO reported Trumps decision was mainly an effort to resolve a fight in Congress that threatened funding for his border wallbut theres little doubt that some Republicans believe the transgender rights debate drives a wedge between Democrats and critical swing voters.

Trumps shocking announcement comes two days after Democrats, led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, rolled out a new agenda crafted to circumvent the culture wars. The Better Deal package is laser-focused on the economy and restraining corporate power, with proposals to crack down on monopolies, stop price gouging by pharmaceuticals and raise the minimum wage to $15.

Story Continued Below

Schumer explained the underlying reasoning in a New York Times op-ed: Democrats will show the country that were the party on the side of working people and that we stand for three simple things. First, were going to increase peoples pay. Second, were going to reduce their everyday expenses. And third, were going to provide workers with the tools they need for the 21st-century economy.

Several high-profile issues are conspicuously missing from those three simple things: climate change, reproductive freedom, gun control, immigration and discriminationall issues that have become signifiers of membership in ranks of secular, multicultural liberalism. But if Democrats thought they could escape being sucked back into a culture war as they pursued white voters without college degrees, Trumps assault on transgender rights was a rude awakening.

A renewal of Bill Clintons the economy, stupid strategy may make sense on paper. But campaigns do not take place on paper. External events, sometimes engineered by your opponent, often intrude on the best-laid plans. In all likelihood, Democrats will have to figure out how to sell the Better Deal while simultaneously defending their commitment to multiculturalism.

It would be unfair to conclude that the Better Deal omissions are tantamount to abandonment. In fact, Schumer quickly stood up for transgender soldiers, as did Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, all facing tough reelection battles next year. But these responses keep economic and social issues independent of each other, suggesting Democrats will try to pivot back to an economics-only message as soon as possible. Thats a missed opportunity. The transgender soldier controversy is a chance to test a message strategy that incorporates the essence of the entire Democratic platform: that no matter what your background, your occupation, where you live or where you went to school, America wont leave you behind.

Democrats are probably feeling pretty good about the pushback they delivered to Trump. Two recent studies were quickly taken off the shelf and shared widely online, showing that transgender soldiers have made little or no impact on unit cohesion, operational effectiveness, or readiness, and their health care needs add a negligible cost. Several Republican senators broke with Trump, including some from deep red territory like Richard Shelby of Alabama and Orrin Hatch of Utah. McCaskills response was to share Sen. John McCains statement, which read, We should all be guided by the principle that any American who wants to serve our country and is able to meet the standards should have the opportunity to do soand should be treated as the patriots they are. McCaskill only added, what he said.

The bipartisan agreement is a reminder liberals have largely won the culture war declared by Pat Buchanan in 1992, when he railed against the amoral idea that gay and lesbian couples should have the same standing in law as married men and women and stood against putting our wives and daughters and sisters into combat units of the United States Army. Back then, Democrats were wary of engaging in these hot-button social issues. The battle over allowing gays to serve openly in the military sapped Clintons political capital in the early months of 1993 and produced the unsatisfying dont ask, dont tell compromise. That political debacle helped Republicans pressure Democrats to back the anti-gay Defense of Marriage Act, and force it on to Clintons desk with veto-proof majorities.

In 2004, Democrats were flustered when White House political adviser Karl Rove engineered 11 state ballot initiatives banning same-sex marriage in a ploy to boost conservative turnout. Most Democrats responded in halting fashion, opposing marriage rights but supporting a legal equivalence (in 2000, Vermont Gov. Howard Deans signing of landmark civil union legislation was done in private, in an attempt to mitigate backlash). When John Kerry lost the presidential election in 2004, even openly gay Rep. Barney Frank put the blame on then-San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom for provoking the issue by unilaterally legalizing same-sex marriage, only to be restrained by the courts, earlier in the year.

But Barack Obamas reelection after embracing same-sex marriage rights in 2012, the Supreme Court ruling protecting same-sex marriages in 2015, and the resulting public approval, turned the culture war tables. Liberals found fresh confidence to forge ahead in the fight for equal rights, including for transgender people. Today, the Democratic Party, and America in general, are more multicultural and more culturally liberal than in the 1990s. Most Americans oppose laws that force people into bathrooms that do not correspond with their gender identity, and most do not believe being transgender is a choice or a mental illness. The voter backlash against North Carolinas bathroom bill was strong enough to oust the Republican governor who signed the law while simultaneously giving Trump the state's 15 electoral votes. In this climate, no Democratic candidate is going to get very far by throwing sharp elbows at any minority groupas Clinton did during the 1992 campaign when he criticized Rev. Jesse Jackson to his face for giving the controversial rapper-activist Sister Souljah a platform at his Rainbow Coalition conference. In fact, there is an expectation among base voters for a strong response when those issues are thrust into the spotlight. Democrats now have little reason, and ability, to stay silent.

And yet, the culture wars remain a complex political minefield for Democrats. While a majority of Americans often agree with socially liberal positions, many of those voters are electorally impotent, clustered in urban areas outside of swing states. Moreover, swing voters with some liberal sympathies dont feel as passionately about social issues as do core Democrats, and may recoil at an emphasis on minority rights or womens rights. Thats why after months of analyzing polls and focus group data, Democrats crafted an agenda based on the critique best articulated by their Mahoning County party chair: People in the heartland thought the Democratic Party cared more about where someone else went to the restroom than whether they had a good paying job.

The Democrats ability to walk this political tightropebalancing their emphasis on economic and social issuesis challenged by Trump, who views social conservatives as his backstop. Evangelical Christians put their faith in the gleefully sinful Trump on Election Day, and Trump has delivered for them more than any other constituency: installing Neil Gorsuch on the Supreme Court, ending funds for the United Nations Population Fund, which supports contraception, and revoking Obamas order protecting the rights of transgender students to use the bathroom of their choice. Without social conservatives, Trump wouldnt have had the base turnout to eke out a victory. And Trump now has a rock-solid base that prevents him from going into a job approval free fall, and helps keep disgruntled congressional Republicans in line.

So we can expect Trump to keep opening new fronts in the culture war, and Democrats to keep responding in kind. And every time that happens, Democrats will not be able to main a singular focus on their Better Deal.

The recipe for winning back white working-class voters cant be fully cooked inside the controlled conditions of a focus group. Democrats have no choice but to weave together their economic platform with their multicultural principles, so any discussion of minority rights is not perceived as favoring one group over another. No question thats easier said than done, as the White Houses anonymous Machiavellian political adviser proves. But Trumps discriminatory, zero-sum brand of politics presents Democrats with an enormous opportunity.

While Trump tries to cling to power with a loyal yet still limited base, he cedes Democrats the opening for a broader and more durable coalition. But that opportunity cant be seized with the micro-targeting evident in the Better Deal pitch. When it comes to coalition building, there are no short cuts.

Bill Scher is a contributing editor to Politico Magazine, and co-host of the Bloggingheads.tv show The DMZ.

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Democrats Can't Escape the Culture War - POLITICO Magazine

Polling shows growing support among Democrats overall for a government-run health care system amid Republican efforts to tear down the 2010 Affordable Act. | AP Photo

By ADAM CANCRYN

07/27/2017 01:56 PM EDT

Updated 07/27/2017 03:34 PM EDT

A single-payer health care system may be the holy grail for many progressives, but a Republican plan to put Senate Democrats on the record voting for it couldnt get support even from Bernie Sanders.

Democrats on Thursday afternoon sat out a vote on a proposal for a completely government-run health care system, denouncing it as a ploy designed to score political points against vulnerable red-state Democrats and drive a wedge between the party to distract from the GOPs health care struggles.

Story Continued Below

Four Democrats and one independent Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp, Jon Tester, Joe Donnelly and Angus King voted with all of the chamber's Republicans against the amendment, which failed 0-57. The four Democrats are facing reelection in states that President Donald Trump won.

Im not going to support something thats a sham, and thats a sham, Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) said before the vote. Not at the same time theyre planning to kick people off their health insurance. Its a bait and switch.

The introduction of single-payer health care into a conversation about unwinding Obamacare offers an inflection point for Democrats who have long shied away from endorsing the universal coverage system. The reality is, single payer is gaining steam in the liberal base, and mainstream Democrats like Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) have taken up the cause in Congress. A majority of House Democrats support a Medicare for All bill in the House, which is the functional equivalent of a single-payer system.

Thursdays vote, though, wasnt the moment for Democrats to throw down the gauntlet on single payer. Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) derided his own amendment as socialized medicine that makes up the heart and soul of the Democratic vision for health care.

Sanders, a Vermont independent whos led the charge for single payer, had vowed to protest the amendment and encouraged other Democrats to do so.

Polling shows growing support among Democrats overall for a government-run health care system amid Republican efforts to tear down the 2010 Affordable Act. A Kaiser Family Foundation tracking poll in June found 64 percent of Democrats backed a single-payer or national health plans, while the Pew Research Center that same month found a majority of Democrats support the idea for the first time in three years of polling.

Still, Democratic leaders have long resisted advocating for a massive expansion of the governments role in health care, wary of alienating independent voters and hanging swing-state senators out to dry on whats long been a divisive issue.

The partys economic agenda released this week notably excluded single payer, but Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said the idea is on the table among other less divisive options for expanding government-sponsored coverage, such as allowing near retirees to buy into Medicare.

Senate Democrats face a tough electoral map in 2018, raising concerns that full-throated support for single payer could bury the party deeper in the minority. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and Tester are among those who have expressed skepticism about a single-payer system.

If Republicans Obamacare repeal effort collapses, liberal activists are hoping to seize the moment to push for single payer. But Tester dismissed the idea as just talk earlier this month.

In this environment, thats all itll be, Tester said.

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Democrats are facing growing pressure from activists on the left who, despite supporting Obamacare, were disappointed that the law left the private insurance system largely intact. McCaskill has walked a tightrope on the issue, telling constituents at a town hall this month that shes concerned about the cost of such a program. However, she said now she believes Obamacare should have included a government-run public option to compete with private insurers.

I was against it at the time, she said in early July. So I think I made a mistake on that.

Democrats hesitant to embrace single payer can point to several failed state efforts to establish their own systems.

Money has proven a major obstacle, with states struggling to raise hundreds of billions of dollars to ensure care for all of their citizens. Vermonts 2014 attempt at establishing single payer collapsed over concerns that payroll taxes on businesses meant to fund the program would hurt the states economy. In Colorado, a single-payer ballot measure opposed by the states Democratic governor was overwhelmingly defeated last year.

Californias Democratic legislature devolved into infighting earlier this year after Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon shelved legislation creating a single-payer system. It would have cost an estimated $400 billion per year to cover everyone without premiums or out-of-pocket costs, according to a legislative analysis.

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Republicans try to bait Democrats on single-payer vote - Politico