Archive for July, 2017

Big Oil Stays Wary on Iran – Wall Street Journal (subscription)


Wall Street Journal (subscription)
Big Oil Stays Wary on Iran
Wall Street Journal (subscription)
At a major energy conference here, Iranian officials said French oil giant Total SA's commitment of $1 billion toward a gas project this month marked a new chapter in the country's energy business since the end of Western sanctions. Iranian officials ...
New Iran Commission to Oversee Total Gas DealNew York Times
Iran wants Turkish companies for oil projectsDaily Sabah
Iran expects to sign more big oil deals 'within weeks'NBC Montana
Hurriyet Daily News -Reuters -Anadolu Agency
all 33 news articles »

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Big Oil Stays Wary on Iran - Wall Street Journal (subscription)

US Hands Off Iran – HuffPost

I just travelled to Iran where was I was invited to speak at the University of Tehran about human rights and humanitarian intervention. I put this term in quotes because Ive rarely ever seen any intervention that was truly humanitarian or that produced humane results, but more on that later.

Dan Kovalik, 2017

Before I traveled to Iran, a number of friends and family members expressed shock that I would go there, feared for my safety and well-being, with some urging me not to go at all. Of course, this is not surprising given the antipathy of the U.S. towards Iran and how that country is portrayed in the mainstream press.

We in the U.S. are constantly told that Iran is our enemy; that it is indeed part of some axis of evil that must be sanctioned, fought against and even subject to regime change. In terms of the first assertion that Iran is our enemy we are usually told that this is so because Iran is allegedly a state sponsor of terrorism. This is a quite curious claim given that Iran is a sworn enemy of Isis and Al-Qaida, and indeed was set to help fight Al-Qaida and the Taliban after the 911 attacks until Donald Rumsfeld intervened. Meanwhile, the U.S.s close ally Saudi Arabia a country we just sold $110 billion of arms to has been covertly and overtly supporting Isis and Al-Qaida for years. Recall that fifteen of the nineteen 911 attackers were indeed from Saudi Arabia and that Saudi Arabia aided and abetted some of the 911 attackers.

The claim about Iran sponsoring terrorism is also ironic given the U.S.s support for the cultish Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK) organization which itself wants to topple the Iranian government, despite its unpopularity in Iran, and which was actually designated by the U.S. as a terrorist organization from 1997 to 2012. As the London Guardian notes, the MEK has claimed responsibility for murdering thousands of Iranians since 1981 (my friends in Iran put the figure of those killed at 17,000); supported the seizure of the U.S. Embassy in Iran in 1979 and the holding of the American hostages; joined Saddam Hussein in fighting Iran during the Iran-Iraq war; and killed at least six Americans during the 1970s. Yet, the MEK, which was holding a conference in Paris while I was in Iran, is now a darling of such U.S. political bigwigs as John Bolton, Newt Gingrich, Joe Lieberman, Howard Dean and Rudy Giuliani.

Another claim that is made about Iran is that it is a despotic, sexist theocracy which is offensive to our Western values and sensibilities (as if those are the gold standard). Again, given that the U.S. is in lock-step with the retrograde, misogynistic monarchy of Saudi Arabia, this claim rings hollow. Moreover, as any visitor to Iran will tell you, Iran is actually a quite modern, Western country where many people speak English. It is also a country where women, though certainly not as liberated as they should be, for the most part wear minimal head coverings, such as colorful silk scarves (which nearly all of the women on my flight from Frankfurt began to put on their heads as we descended toward the Tehran airport); freely drive cars and are found in every sector of public and commercial life.

Most importantly, though, talk about regime change begs the question of what the regime will be changed to and how it will be changed. In the case of one of the most notable recent acts of regime change the West has effected Libya we see that the West is content to topple a government , doing great damage to the people, civilian infrastructure and ancient antiquities in the process, and leave nothing but chaos in its wake. In my view, the West seems to have the same plans for Syria where it has aimed at toppling the Assad government while claiming to support moderate rebels who do not seem to exist. The regime changes in Iraq and Afghanistan have not produced much better results with tens of thousands being killed, the countries being laid to ruin, and at best weak governments resulting from the ashes.

As I walked through the beautiful streets of Tehran and Isfahan, was warmly greeted by the beautiful people of Iran who actually love Americans as I came to find; and witnessed Irans wealth of ancient architecture, including functioning Armenian Christian Churches and Jewish synagogues, I couldnt help but feel pangs of fear and even anger at the thought of but another humanitarian intervention which would surely lay waste to many of the people and antiquities I was encountering.

Dan Kovalik, 2017

And, I wondered what the plan would be for Iran if the U.S. were to seek regime change. Would the U.S. put in power the unpopular and bizarre MEK? Or, maybe the U.S. would put in power the son of the last Shah (i.e., King) who apparently is making noises of wishing to return. Recall that the U.S. installed the Shah in 1953 after overthrowing the democratically-elected Prime Minister, Mohammed Mossadeqh because Mossadeqh wished to nationalize Irans oil fields and use the oil revenue for the benefit of the Iranian people an unforgiveable offense. The Shah was kept in power until the 1979 revolution through the help of the SAVAK a brutal security apparatus which the CIA helped to set up and train in torture techniques to prevent democracy from breaking out in Iran. I had the chance to tour the main SAVAK prison and torture center now a museum and see the rows and rows of photos of those imprisoned, tortured and killed by the SAVAK. Is the U.S. interested in again handing over Iran to this terrible regime?

The truth is that Iran is a society which is progressing, if slowly and in its own way. It has a democratically-elected president and legislature and a vibrant civil society which is pushing for ever greater freedoms and reforms. If we havent learned by now, it is up to the Iranian people to decide their own fate and what type of government they will have. I am confident the Iranian people will find their way, in their own manner and in their own time, if we just allow them to do so.

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US Hands Off Iran - HuffPost

Iran’s cartoonists are finding it almost too easy to mock Trump – Vox

After a quiet few months, hardliners in Iran are slowly but surely returning to their traditional attacks on the US. Theyre discovering quite gleefully that their new target a wispy-haired political outsider prone to tweets and temper tantrums is almost too easy to make fun of.

Cartoons of President Donald Trump in various forms, from a toddler to a pig, are flooding Irans websites and streets, reflecting a gradual shift in the countrys attitudes toward the president. While Irans leaders were previously apprehensive or even a little afraid of Trump who had repeatedly promised during his campaign to go after Iran for its nuclear program and support for sectarian militias around the region many in Tehran are now realizing they have little to worry about when it comes to Trump following through on hyperbolic threats.

Immediately after Trump was elected, we saw a dip in the volume of anti-American language, says Ayelet Savyon, who has been monitoring the issue closely as the director of the Iran Media Project at the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI). But now theyre back on track with the inflammatory rhetoric.

MEMRI research shows that for about three months following Trumps inauguration, the popular Iranian hate slogan "death to America" disappeared almost entirely from official discourse, as did public burning of the American flag. Iranian officials seemed particularly anxious about Trumps threats to dismantle the Obama administrations landmark 2015 nuclear deal, which he has called a disaster and the worst deal ever.

Those fears have now largely been dispelled by Trumps performance in office, and specifically his flip-flopping on the nuclear deal, to which Iranian leaders have paid close attention. In other words, Iran is back with its anti-US jokes and is coming after an easy and obvious target: Trump.

Take the Iranian government-linked group that recently organized a Trumpism cartoon and caricature contest where more than 1,500 illustrators were asked to submit images mocking the US president.

The contest concluded with a gallery exhibition of the images in Tehran that was held quite purposefully, Savyon says on July 3, just a day before America celebrated Independence Day.

This competition was organized by a group that presents itself as an independent NGO but actually receives funds from the Iranian government and maintains close relations with senior government officials, Savyon says.

The group is known internationally for organizing an annual Holocaust-themed cartoon contest that insults the history of the genocide and gives a platform for Holocaust deniers in the country. Masoud Shojaei Tabatabaei, one of the leaders of this group, said in April last year that the organization he heads "cooperates with the Ministry of Culture."

His latest venture, this International Trumpism Cartoon and Caricature Contest, was pitched as a creative opportunity for international artists to showcase their political satire, but later seemed to some participants like a glorified platform for state-sponsored propaganda.

Ed Wexler and Clay Jones, the two American cartoonists who were awarded prizes in the competition, said they rejected the citation from the group when they learned about its tradition of organizing cartoon competitions that both deny and mock the Holocaust.

Accounts from both Jones and Wexler suggest that the way the Trumpism competition was carried out was ... sketchy to say the least. Organizers reached out to Jones via Facebook, explaining the theme and inviting him to submit a piece of artwork over email. They didnt mention any of the other competitions they had organized before, or the fact that they were based in Iran.

It was extremely simple to enter the competition, Jones said in an interview. There was no entrance fee, no paperwork. You just attached some files to an email.

When the contest ended and winners were announced, Jones and Wexler werent notified even though they had both won prizes. The two cartoonists found out about the results and about the group only when American news agencies started running articles on the contest.

They didnt notify me of anything. I feel exploited, Wexler told me.

I think the competition was held to justify their stances they hold, Jones says. They like to criticize America, and what better way to do that than to have someone agree with you whos an American.

Jones adds that he doesnt think its a coincidence that out of the 1,600 cartoonists who (organizers claimed) participated, the winner of the contest was an Iranian, Hadi Asadi. Asadi won $1,500 for his cartoon of Trump dressed in a suit of money, orange hair ablaze and face crumpled in anger with saliva dripping from his mouth.

Asadi told the Associated Press he wanted to show the money-mindedness and warmonger nature of Trump. I wanted to show Trump while trampling symbols of culture, he said.

Despite government statements otherwise, research institutions like MEMRI have known for years now that this group has definite links to the Iranian government. This contest, and the images it produced, suggests that the event was less a celebration of political satire or creativity than it was a state-sponsored platform for Trump-bashing.

Trump is not the first US president to be targeted by Iran, which has made effigies and caricatures of every president since Jimmy Carter, according the New York Times. In fact, according to Savyon, anti-US rhetoric was more severe during the Obama administration, which Iranian leaders typically derided as weak.

Whats distinct this time is that Trump, who worried some Iranian leaders with his braggadocio during the campaign, is now proving to be an exceptionally easy US president to skewer.

He isnt welcomed in certain circles in the US, so its easier for [Iran] to say look, its not what we say, its what you say, Savyon explains. Iran is no different from any other place in the world they see how Trump is treated in the US, by the press and other major elements, and they only echo it. They only imitate it.

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Iran's cartoonists are finding it almost too easy to mock Trump - Vox

United Effort on Iran Requires Additional Sanctions – Jewish Exponent

By Robert P. Casey, Jr.

At the height of World War II, Sen. Arthur Vandenberg, a Republican and avowed isolationist, stood on the Senate floor and said, We cannot drift to victory. We must have maximum united effort on all fronts. And we must deserve the continued united effort of our own people. Vandenberg was admonishing his colleagues to unite in the face of threats to the stability and security of the United States and our allies.

I was reminded of this message earlier this year, when I was sitting with a small, bipartisan group of my colleagues and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during his visit to Washington. We talked at length and reaffirmed our unity of purpose in confronting the security threats facing Israel, including from the Iranian regimes support for terrorist groups and its continued pursuit of ballistic missile technology.

Just a few weeks later, the Trump administration certified that Iran is complying with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. The JCPOA, with the five members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany and Iran, substantially constrained the Iranian regimes nuclear program and was the best available option to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapons capability. When I made my decision on the JCPOA, I knew that we could not trust Tehrans commitments.

For this deal to be effective, we needed to be unified on four actions verifying Irans compliance with the agreement, enforcing the deal, countering Irans aggression and deterring the Iranian regime from resuming their pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability. I committed to advancing legislative efforts that prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, exporting terrorism in the region, and committing human rights atrocities at home.

Last month, the Senate came together across party lines to pass legislation that is a strong step in the right direction. I am proud to be an original cosponsor of S. 722, a bill that levies tough sanctions on Iran for its aggressive, provocative behavior. It is imperative that we hold the Iranian regime accountable for its destabilization of the region, its support for terrorist proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas, its development of ballistic missile technology in contravention of U.N. Security Council resolutions and its atrocious human rights record. The administrations diplomatic and military experts must also develop a strategy to counter Irans influence in the Middle East.

The bill also includes a robust package of sanctions and other measures to hold Russia accountable for its destabilization of Syria and Ukraine and its interference in our domestic politics. Although President Donald Trump has called Russian President Vladimir Putin a strong leader, we know he is an authoritarian former KGB officer who puts his political opponents in jail or worse, and who stifles freedom of the press, freedom of worship and freedom of expression all fundamental American values.

Last month, the Senate demonstrated what Vandenberg called maximum united effort when it comes to standing with our allies and holding our adversaries accountable. It is imperative that the House of Representatives takes action on this legislation, and I hope the president will sign it.

Robert P. Casey, Jr., a Democrat, is the senior U.S. senator for Pennsylvania.

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United Effort on Iran Requires Additional Sanctions - Jewish Exponent

The Battle For Iraq Doesn’t End With MosulOr ISIS – The National Interest Online (blog)

As the battle of Mosul reaches its end, President Trump must decide how to proceed in Iraq. Both the U.S. and Iraqi governments rhetoric indicate American troops will withdraw after Mosul has been recaptured. However, that would leave the country vulnerable to Iranian influence. U.S troops should remain in Iraq to secure its territory and government from external threats.

Iran has tried to increase its influence in Iraq since the withdrawal of U.S. troops in 2011. Tehran has extended its reach through Shia militias loyal to the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei. These militias have fought alongside Iraqi security forces and Kurdish troops against ISIS to claim territory, not help civilians, and many of them have political wings that seek to align Iraqs government with Irans political and religious structure.

Since 2016, the U.S. has invested over $10 billion and an additional $4.83 billion in the fiscal year 2017 budget to combat ISIS. Currently, there are more than 5,000 U.S. troops and 3,500 coalition advisers to train 65,000 Iraqi soldiers, police, Kurdish troops, and Sunni tribal fighters. The U.S. should continue to support the Iraqi government as it rebuilds. This will help regional partners and the U.S. protect their interests. If the U.S. withdraws, Baghdad may become a puppet of Tehran, making the rest of the region susceptible to Iranian control.

Irans funding and logistical support of Iraqi Shia militias commonly referred to as the Popular Mobilization has aided in the effort to defeat ISIS. However, the Popular Mobilizations involvement has also led to increased sectarian violence in recaptured areas. In addition, it has delegitimized Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadis sovereignty over the security forces. These militants refuse to take orders from the Iraqi government, and only respond to directions given by Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The U.S. withdrawal of troops from Iraq would be an invitation for Iran to create a base of control to threaten U.S. partners in the region. Currently, Iraqi security forces lack the manpower and resources to secure recaptured territory. Troops are centered in Mosul, leaving the rest of the country vulnerable and unprotected. This not only makes Iraq vulnerable to an ISIS resurgence, but also allows the Shia militants free reign over unfortified areas. Iran could take control of recaptured areas through its militias and implement its own rule of law on the inhabitants. Fighting between the Iraqi security forces and the militants would likely cause a drastic surge in sectarian violence, risking civilian lives and worsening the refugee crisis.

A number of groups in Iraq, including from the prime ministers party, support a closer relationship with Tehran. Some powerful Shia political parties receive funding and support from Iran and aim to bring the two countries closer together. They are seeking a leader who will distance the country from U.S. influence. One such individual is Nouri al-Maliki, Iraqs former prime minister. Maliki insisted on the withdrawal of U.S. troops in the late 2000s and gave top government and military positions to favored Shiites, denying rights and representation to other communities in Iraq.

Without U.S. support, the Iraqi government will lose the limited control and legitimacy it has, placing U.S. security and economic interests in jeopardy. A pro-Iran leader in Iraq would hurt U.S. efforts to combat terrorism in the region and strain its economic relationship with Iraq. Much like Iran is able to threaten Israel via its proxy, Hezbollah, in Lebanon, establishing a hold over Iraq would aid its wars in Yemen and Syria against U.S. partners like Saudi Arabia, and further destabilize the region.

During the presidential campaign, Trump repeatedly stated his commitment to combatting Irans influence in the Middle East. In an interview with the Washington Post, then-candidate Trump remarked, Iran is taking over Iraq as sure as youre sitting there. In a campaign speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee last March, Trump stated Iran is a problem in Iraq, a problem in Syria, a problem in Lebanon, a problem in Yemen and will be a very, very major problem for Saudi Arabia. U.S. policy needs to reflect the accuracy of Trumps assessment.

The Trump Administration must renew its presence in Iraq to prevent a resurgence of conflict and protect the country from Iranian influence. Two programs provide funding for the U.S. to advise and assist in Iraq and Syria: the Iraq Train and Equip program and the Counter ISIL fund. Congress needs to renew these programs in 2018 to fund the security forces. President Trump should also encourage other members of the Counter-ISIS coalition to commit more funding and logistical support for security forces.

The administration should also increase funding for the Air Forces F-15 and F-16 fighter jet programs, which have been highly effective in targeting ISIS. If President Trump is to follow through in his pledge to stand up to Iran's aggressive push to destabilize and dominate the region, he must commit to securing territories and the U.S. relationship with Iraq.

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The Battle For Iraq Doesn't End With MosulOr ISIS - The National Interest Online (blog)