Archive for July, 2017

Iran and Iraq Military Unite Against ‘Terrorism,’ Creating Potential Problems for US – Newsweek

Iran and Iraq have pledged to join forces against militant fighters and ideology in the region by boosting bilateral defense ties, a move that could present a challenge to U.S. foreign policy goals.

Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan and Iraqi Defense MinisterIrfan al-Hiyali met Sunday in Tehran to sign a military agreement aimed at improving joint efforts to curb the influence of jihadissuch as the Islamic State militant group. ISIS has conducted deadly attacks in both countries and is still being fought by Iraq with support from Iran and the U.S., but the U.S. has become increasingly concerned about Iran's growing foothold in Iraq. Despite the volatile history of the twomajority Shiite-Muslim neighbors and theirdiffering views on Washington, the new deal will reportedly seeIran and Iraq's armed forces work together on a number of strategic levels.

Related: U.S. military must leave Iran's borders and stop calling us terrorists, Revolutionary Guards say

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"Extending cooperation and exchanging experiences in fighting terrorism and extremism, border security, and educational, logistical, technical and military support are among the provisions of this memorandum," Reuters quoted Iran's state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) as reporting.

Two Iraqis take a selfie while stepping on a U.S. flag during a parade marking Al-Quds (Jerusalem) International Day organized by the Popular Mobilization Forces in the southern Iraqi city of Basra, June 23. The Popular Mobilization Forces are the collective label for a number of majority-Shiite Muslim, Iran-backed militias battling the Islamic State militant group (ISIS) alongside U.S.-backed forces in Iraq. Haidar Mohammed Ali/AFP/Getty Images

While the U.S. has yet to offer an official response, Iran's Foreign Ministry reportedly said the following day that Iran's international relations were no one else's business. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bahram Qasemi confirmed Monday that the military agreement had been signed and maintained that no third country should be involved in Iran and Iraq's relationship, IRNA reported.

Iran and Iraq fought a bitter war in the 1980s, in which the U.S. publicly backed Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, a Sunni Muslim Baathist, against the new Islamic revolutionary government of Shiite Muslim cleric Ayatollah Ruhollah Musava Khomeini. Privately, the U.S. backed both sides to attain funds to battle leftists in LatinAmerica. After the U.S. ultimately toppled Hussein in 2003, Iran quickly began to build relations with the newly installed Shiite Muslim-led government of Iraq and has contributed the services of its elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp. toward battling ISIS after the militant grouptook over nearly half of Iraq in 2014.

The U.S. has also sent troops and has lent extensive resources to assist the Iraqi military and Iraqi Kurdish forces, both of which have fought alongside Iran-backed, majority-Shiite Muslim militias, known as the Popular Mobilization Forces. The U.S. and Iran accuse each other of attempting to destabilize the region and of funding foreign groups classed as terrorist organizations in order to advance their own respective interests. Relations between the U.S. and Iran have become particularly tense since the election of President Donald Trump, who has pledged increased support for Iraq, but has taken a hard-line stance against Iran by increasing economic sanctions and suggesting a renegotiation of a 2015 nuclear treaty signed between the U.S., Iran and several other nations.

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Iraqi President Saddam Hussein shake hands December 20, 1983, in Baghdad amid a bloody war between Iran and Iraq that killed hundreds of thousands on both sides. The U.S. publicly supported Hussein against a hostile Iranian revolutionary government but provided arms to Iran in order to fund anti-Communist fighters in Nicaragua and facilitate the release of U.S. prisoners in Lebanon. Getty Images

As ISIS loses the last of its ground in Iraq, Iran has taken the opportunity to court its neighbor. In addition to Sunday's defense agreement, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Jaberi-Ansari and Iraqi Parliament Speaker Salim al-Jabouri also met Sunday in Baghdad, where the secondIran-Iraq Joint Political Committee is due to be held, according to IRNAand Press TV, an affiliate of the semi-official Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting agency.

Iran and the U.S. have also downplayed each other's role in defeating ISIS in its former stronghold of Mosul, Iraq's second city and by far the largest population center the jihadishave ever controlled. The U.S. and Iran are also conducting parallel campaigns against ISIS in neighboring Syria, where their partnered factions have clashed at times.

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Iran and Iraq Military Unite Against 'Terrorism,' Creating Potential Problems for US - Newsweek

Fate of 39 Indians missing in Iraq for 3 years still unknown – Miami Herald


Miami Herald
Fate of 39 Indians missing in Iraq for 3 years still unknown
Miami Herald
Iraq's foreign minister said Monday he does not know whether 39 Indian workers who were abducted by militants in Iraq three years ago are dead or alive. Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari met with his Indian counterpart, Sushma Swaraj, and other ...
No substantial evidence on 39 missing Indians, says IraqEconomic Times
Iraq not sure of fate of 39 IndiansThe Hindu
On Missing Indians, Congress Preps Privilege Notice Against Sushma SwarajNDTV
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Fate of 39 Indians missing in Iraq for 3 years still unknown - Miami Herald

Iraq: OPEC’s Problem Child – Seeking Alpha

This year has been a pretty interesting ride for oil. Right now, prices appear to be trading near the low-end of a specific range of about $45 to $55 per barrel amidst fears of not only higher US output but also because the market fears that OPEC may be backtracking on its production goals. In what follows, I want to dig into some data that shows it's not OPEC that has been the problem but, rather, one of its members. No, I'm not talking about Libya or Nigeria here but am talking about, instead, a larger player in the group than both of these combined.

Last year, OPEC decided, after a two-year long war on US shale, to finally cut production to the tune of around 1.2 million barrels per day. They also negotiated cuts with some non-OPEC nations, namely Russia, to slash nearly 0.6 million barrels of extra oil from the market as well. Prices surged initially and everybody, myself included, thought the road higher would be easier than it ended up being. There was also a concern (not from myself but from others) that OPEC wouldn't honor their pledge. That said, on the whole, OPEC has defied those expectations and has cut.

*Created by Author

If you look at the graph above, for instance, you can see the goal OPEC set for itself last year in terms of production. This data excludes output from Libya and Nigeria since both of those nations were exempt from cuts. It also excludes Equatorial Guinea since it's a new addition to the group and had no specific limit set. In the graph, you can also see how OPEC's production has looked, using the group's own estimates, compared to their goal. In the next graph below, you can see the difference between these two figures.

*Created by Author

Overall, OPEC's work, less what has been done by Libya and Nigeria, has been phenomenal. By my math, if you look at the output, production has been mostly lower each month. Sure, as you can see in the graph below, June was bad with 1.56 million barrels produced in excess of what was planned, but total output since the start of this year has been 5.41 million barrels below what OPEC said they would pump out. This shows commitment but, most importantly, it should help to reduce the global oil glut faster.

*Created by Author

While OPEC, on the whole, has done well, the same cannot be said of Iraq. If you look at the graph below, for instance, you can see the nation's average daily output, reported each month, compared to what the nation promised to produce last year. Not one single month has the nation reported at or below its target. It's best month was April, when production averaged just 30 thousand barrels per day above the goal but, since then, output has moved higher. In June, production was 0.15 million barrels per day higher than the country promised last year.

*Created by Author

In the next graph, as shown below, you can see that this isn't even the worst of it. You see, while OPEC reports its own estimates of output for each of its member nations, some nations provide their own estimates of what they produced. As you can see, Iraq isn't even trying to hide the fact that they are producing above what was agreed upon. In fact, they may even be proud of it since the country's own estimates put oil production quite a bit higher than OPEC's own estimates. Generally speaking, I am inclined to believe data like this over estimates, but I don't know what to make of this situation.

*Created by Author

If we assume that OPEC's estimates for Iraq are correct, we can generate a graph like the one below. In it, you can see that oil production from the group as a whole would have been consistently below the target if Iraq had behaved accordingly. The best month would have been a draw from the group totaling 6.42 million barrels, while aggregate production over the first six months of this year would have been 21.53 million barrels lower than under perfect adherence to their plan.

*Created by Author

Besides Saudi Arabia, which has been doing most of the heavy-lifting this year, another interesting nation is Iran. Last year, one common fear I heard from oil bears was that the country would never cooperate on a cut with the rest of OPEC, largely due to its animosity toward Saudi Arabia and other Sunni-majority nations. Certainly, from a political perspective, this makes sense but, as I have always believed, politics only has a short-term sway while economics will always drive things in the long run.

*Created by Author

Sure enough, as you can see in the graph above, Iran has done really well in terms of adhering to its target of 3.797 million barrels per day. Five of the past six months have seen production average below that (February was the exception). On the oil front, I believe that Iran is the most likely to destroy the existing oil deal because of political concerns but, even so, the nation has managed to behave because it knows that doing so, especially when Saudi Arabia has cut beyond expectations, is in its own best interests. This means the fear that Iran may exit the deal at any point is probably vastly overstated.

Based on the data provided, it seems to me that OPEC, as a whole, has been doing its job. Sure, it's bad to see Libya and Nigeria both increase output, but that was largely expected. What's not expected, however, is to see Saudi Arabia and other nations do all the heavy-lifting to offset Iraq's shortcomings. While I am certainly still bullish on oil, I believe that OPEC needs to pressure Iraq to fulfill its end of the bargain because, not only will it help the market rebalance, but it might increase the sense of unity among the group. A continuation of the country not adhering to the group's agreement may otherwise unsettle things and pose a risk for oil bulls.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Iraq: OPEC's Problem Child - Seeking Alpha

Female mechanics spark gender revolution in Iraq – USA TODAY

Matthew Vickery, Special for USA TODAY Published 7:00 a.m. ET July 24, 2017 | Updated 3:10 p.m. ET July 24, 2017

Shadi Mohammed works on a customers car in her garage staffed by women in the Iraqi city of Sulaimani. (Photo: Halwest Abdulkareem)

SULAIMANI, Iraq Sitting under shelves decked with dozens of brightly colored bottles of motor oil, Shadi Mohammed shouts to be heard over nearby machines.

"This is Shadi's garage!" she yells as she raises her oil-stained hands with enthusiasm, knowing she's an anomaly in this conservative, male-dominated country.

Mohammed is an extraordinarymechanic in an ordinary garage in this Kurdish city near the border with Iran: Everyoneworking under the hoods of flashy pickups and all-terrain vehicles are all women. They areearning a wage for their families and creating a mini-revolution in the process.

"I want to change the perception of society toward women and toward what they think women can do," explained Mohammed, 45. "Show them that woman are also capable of running a garage like this just like men do here."

The charismaticbusinesswoman and former civil servant never planned to don overalls and transform herself into a mechanic. But asan economic crisis hits the Kurdish region of northern Iraq, where public sectorwages have beenslashed up to 75%, she needed a new way to provide for her family.

With two daughters looking to their mother as a role model, Mohammed wanted to prove that Iraqi women could have whatever career they wanted. So she decided to take on one ofthe most male-dominated professions fixing cars.

When I realized this job had never been done by women before in Iraq, it encouraged me to go ahead with the idea of running an auto-repair garage, Mohammed told USA TODAYon a blisteringhot day. I wanted to show that women could take care of themselves, and help encourage women to gain experience in this trade.

She also wanted to create a garage where women would feel comfortable when they bring in their vehiclewithout facing ridicule or harassment from men.

Three months later, and $10,000 of savings spent, she saidher business is doing well, and she regrets nothing.

Mohammed admits she is a self-taught mechanic whosefour-woman team takes on more complex jobs every day. The current aim is to master automotive electronics in the coming months.

Just 11% of women in Iraq's Kurdistan region were employed last year, compared to nearly 19% in the Middle East,according to the World Bank.Only one in 100 of those women had jobs in the private sector, where men and women are more likely to interact something frowned upon in acountrywhere traditional gender roles are still prevalent.

Many of the women who buck this trend still end up leaving the workplace between the ages of 25 to 29 to fulfill family roles at home.

In choosing to be a mechanic, Mohammed battles sexism and ridicule daily at her garage.

During a recent visit by USA TODAY, one customer came in and lingered around Mohammed for an hour, offering gifts and later asking her to check his 4x4.

Theres nothing wrong with it, she said matter-of-factly after popping the hood and checking, as the vehicle owner leered behind her.

Suchbehavior is a daily occurrence male customersfake having vehicle problems so they can watch Mohammed and her female workers.

I would not face the harassment that I am facing now if I were a man," Mohammed said."I am familiar with my societys behavior. In some cases people just visit us because we have women working here.

Fatah Sleman, one of the female mechanics who works at the auto-repair garage, checks a vehicle's tires as a customer looks on.(Photo: Halwest Abdulkareem)

She said she had to hire women in secret after a public attempt to find women workers was met with ridicule.

Fatah Sleman, one of her employees, said she was grateful for the work Mohammed provided and the opportunity to prove that women shouldnt be confined to home or jobs traditionally held by women.

I dont want careers like this one to be occupied just by men, said Sleman, 37. I want to tell women, there is no difference between us and men, and that its our right to try different careers.

Despite facing ridicule and harassment, the women say theyre thankful for the customers who show respect and support their business.

One of those customers, Aros Ghafur, said he had never beforeseena garage owned and run by women but was pleased with the work they did.

I see a clear future of success in what Shadi is doing.I have really encouraged her to keep doing her job, said Ghafur, 31, a Sulaimani resident.

Success for Mohammed is not just increasing profits, but alsoinspiringother female employees.

And its working. Sparked by Mohammed's give-it-a-go attitude and confidence in taking on Iraqi society, her employees want to encourage other womento do the same.

Eyeing the future, Mohammed plans to hire more women and relocate her auto-repair business to a larger site, but she expects little helpalong the way.

Nobody has tried to stop me or close my garage, but neither has anyone or the government helped or assisted me with it, she said. Maybe they dont want to lessen gender discrimination here.

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Baghdad needs Russia to balance foreign influence in Iraq, VP Maliki – Rudaw

MOSCOW, Russian Federation Iraqs Vice President Nouri al-Maliki has told Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow that Baghdad wants Russia to play a bigger role in Iraq so that there is a balanced policy that does not allow a foreign political entity to impose its agenda in Iraq.

Maliki and Lavrov met on Monday after the Iraqi leader started an official visit to Russia, with Maliki expected to meet the Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday in Saint Petersburg.

Lavrov noted the fact that it is not the first time Maliki visits Russia, following his 2012 official visit in his capacity as the then Prime Minister of Iraq.

He said that they are open to help develop and strengthen relations between the two sides, especially economically, and in the fight against terrorism.

Maliki said that Russia wants to expand the bilateral relations and that the Russian foreign minister has praised the Baghdad Operation room, jointly run by Iraq, Iran, Syria and Russia where the member states share intelligence.

Maliki told the Russian FM that Baghdad wants to create a balanced policy in Iraq, in cooperation with Russia, so that it does not allow for disorder to happen whereby a foreign political entity may impose its agenda in the country.

Maliki also showed his appreciation for the Russian role in Syria that preserved the region from a total collapse.

While he celebrated the victory in Mosul against ISIS, Maliki was fearful of what may come next.

He called it a new stage in Iraq that comes after the defeat of the ISIS group, followed by the upcoming general elections in Iraq next year.

May be Iraq is prone to new political developments in light of regional interferences, Maliki said briefly as he sat opposite the Russian FM.

He also said that there were some practices that threatened the unity of Iraq, perhaps a reference to the September 25 independence referendum to be held by the Kurdistan Region, something Maliki expressed his objections to on more than an occasion.

Iraq and Russia have a $4.2 billion outstanding arms deal that was signed by the then PM Maliki on a visit to Moscow in 2012.

The deal was put on hold amid a corruption and bribery scandal involving senior Iraqi defense officials.

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Baghdad needs Russia to balance foreign influence in Iraq, VP Maliki - Rudaw