But it is already near impossible to hold a private conversation with anyone in the Chinese capital who takes an interest in politics without talk turning to Mr. Guo and his unverified insider tales of elite corruption and power plays. People here have followed each unveiling of Mr. Guos often long-winded allegations by creeping around Chinas barricade of internet censorship.
I dont think the party has ever had a big businessman so boldly challenge it like this, said Bao Tong, a former senior aide to Zhao Ziyang, a former party leader who was toppled from power during the 1989 protests. How to respond is a dilemma.
Mr. Guo, who also goes by the name Miles Kwok, has delighted in doling out his allegations on a lively Twitter feed as well as in hourslong talks and interviews broadcast, sometimes live, on YouTube and Mingjing, a Chinese news website based in the United States. All those sites are blocked in China.
During a broadcast in mid-June, which went on for more than four hours, Mr. Guo seemed to enjoy teasing the interviewer.
I dont get how youre just sitting there. Are you made from flesh and blood? Mr. Guo said as he laid out pictures and diagrams that he said proved his claims. Such huge news. Why dont you take off your clothes and get excited?
Mr. Guos stories have caused a stir in part because he socialized with security officials before he left China several years ago and has shown a familiarity with whos who in elite party families. But many of his recent claims are unverified and disputed, and Mr. Guo has sometimes left out important details needed to test the accusations.
Yet even without confirmation, the allegations appear vexing for Mr. Xi.
Mr. Guo has described himself as a paladin defending Mr. Xi and even acting indirectly on his orders. But the billionaire has also asserted that Mr. Xis plans for choosing a new leadership team for his second five-year term at the coming congress are mired in conflict. There is little evidence of that, but Mr. Guo has thrown a firecracker into the careful choreography of the lead-up, some experts said.
No matter whether these allegations are bogus or exaggerated, they have become a distraction, said Deng Yuwen, a current affairs commentator in Beijing. People who dislike Xi the democratic opposition, cadres unhappy with his policies are also finding something to focus on in Guo Wengui.
Much of the speculation has focused on the future of Mr. Wang, one of the most powerful men in China and the primary target of Mr. Guos ire. Party insiders have said Mr. Xi may want Mr. Wang to stay in office, bucking the established retirement rules.
But Mr. Guo wants Mr. Wang out and has claimed again and again that his extended family has amassed staggering wealth through a web of companies. At a minimum, the pounding has bruised Mr. Wangs reputation among members of the urban elite who have heard Mr. Guos claims. The state news media has long presented him as an incorruptible graft buster with the courage to catch tigers corrupt officials in the partys high echelons.
What if the tiger hunter turns out to be a tiger? asked Mr. Bao, the former senior aide. How do you explain that?
Still, Mr. Guos claims are uncorroborated and have been challenged even by some critics of the party.
Much of what Guo Wengui says is incorrect or speculative, said Zhang Lifan, a businessman and liberal intellectual in Beijing who has jousted online with Mr. Guo. Hes just letting off fireworks to create a ruckus.
Asked about Mr. Guos allegations, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said he was a crime suspect whom China had put on an Interpol list, and it referred questions to the legal authorities. The State Council Information Office, the government agency that deals with such inquiries, did not respond to faxed questions.
Leaders in Beijing face a quandary: Openly disputing Mr. Guo would give him more prominence, while ignoring him could be read by some as a sign that he is telling the truth, several experts said.
You cant give him attention, but you cant ignore him, either, Mr. Bao said. You might have been able to entirely ignore Guo Wengui before, when society was shut off and had no access to information. But that doesnt work now. You cant act dumb.
Mr. Guo, his business and his employees have been assailed by a wave of lawsuits in China and the United States claiming unpaid wages and debts, fraud and libel. The authorities have also channeled vitriol against Mr. Guo through Global Times, a tabloid that the party often uses to attack its foes.
Hes lied so much that the lies dont match up, and Guo Wengui has totally given up on logic, the newspaper said this month.
Still, the editorial nodded to Mr. Guos acumen as a showman: It must be said that hes a spectacle, and at home and abroad there are those who loathe Chinas political system and get a kick out of political rumors enjoying taking in this spectacle.
Though some opponents of the partys rule inside China and abroad have embraced Mr. Guo as a folk hero, others warn he is an opportunist who could drag democracy advocates into perilous undercurrents of party infighting.
Mr. Guo has denounced some of these critics, accusing them of lacking the backbone to support him.
Hes become a divisive force in the democratic movement abroad, said Li Weidong, a former Chinese magazine editor living in New Jersey who has fought with Mr. Guo. Theres a clash of views over whether to back him or keep a distance.
Much of the whispering in Beijing has fixated on Mr. Guos claim that he still has powerful patrons inside the party, including an old leader whom he has not named.
But no Chinese leader is likely to make common cause with a volatile, talkative exile like Mr. Guo, said Minxin Pei, a professor at Claremont McKenna College in California who studies Chinese politics.
Those attempting to do that must be mad since they can get caught easily and suffer the consequences, he said.
Professor Pei added that Mr. Guo was unlikely to derail Mr. Xis plans for the next leadership. For his allegations to disrupt these preparations, there need to be at least a critical mass of senior officials who demand an investigation, he said. Under the current conditions in Beijing, it is inconceivable that there are people in Beijing who dare to take such risks.
Michael Forsythe contributed reporting from New York, and Adam Wu contributed research from Beijing.
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