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Dont expect any supply relief from Black Sea wheat, says an analyst.

Weve got another bumper crop of wheat coming out of Ukraine and Russia, said Mike Lee, owner of Green Square Agro Consulting.

He recently conducted a five-day, 2,500 kilometre tour of fields in the main wheat growing regions of Russia and Ukraine.

His conclusion is their crops are going to be a lot bigger than the U.S. Department of Agriculture is estimating.

The USDA is forecasting 67 million tonnes of Russian wheat, down from last years record 72 million tonne crop.

Lee thinks that number will be revised higher in tomorrows World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Russia could produce up to 70 million tonnes this year, which would be the second largest crop in the post-Soviet Union era.

He still has a hard time believing the country grew 72 million tonnes of wheat last year because when he toured the fields just before harvest, most of the wheat had toppled over and was lying on the ground.

This has been a cooler growing season, and the wheat isnt as tall as it was last year.

It has not fallen over. It has got plenty of rain, but its upright, its solid, he said.

This year the crop looks better, but I cant believe its going to achieve 72 million tonnes.

Last years crop quality was abysmal. It had poor protein levels and was full of mycotoxins. Lee expects quality to be normal this year.

The USDAs latest Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin backs up his forecast of a bumper crop of Russian wheat.

In Russia, widespread showers and thunderstorms sustained excellent yield prospects for flowering to filling winter wheat from the southern Central District into the Southern and North Caucasus Districts, stated the report.

The USDA is forecasting 25 million tonnes of production from Ukraine. Lee believes it will be closer to 27 million tonnes, which would again be the second largest crop since the demise of the Soviet Union.

In its weekly weather report, the USDA said production prospects are variable in Ukraine. Vegetative health is excellent in southern and eastern Ukraine, contrasting with poor health in the central part of the country because of drought.

The Black Sea harvest will start in about two weeks.

There is nothing, barring a tsunami or something really catastrophic, that will do any damage to the wheat crop now, said Lee.

That means Canada will have plenty of competition from Russia and Ukraine in export markets this year.

Both those regions are long overdue for a difficult harvest, but it doesnt look like its going to be this year for the wheat, said Lee.

He previously worked as an agronomy consultant in Ukraine and has been conducting five crop tours of the Black Sea region every growing season for the past three years.

Lee tweets pictures and videos and writes a report at the conclusion of each tour detailing his findings and providing yield forecasts for subscribers to his service, which can be found on his Agronomy-Ukraine website.

He has noticed in the last couple of years that the governments of both countries are significantly backing agriculture and are starting to promote sensible policies for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union.

In the past it was just random rubbish that came out of these places, said Lee.

Many farmers in the western world have a misguided view that farming in the Black Sea region is backward, but Lee said nothing could be further from the truth. It has already come a long way and with government support, the region will become an even more formidable competitor in export markets.

The state of farming is at a very high level and is only improving, he said.

Contact sean.pratt@producer.com

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Bumper wheat crops expected in Russia, Ukraine - The Western ... - Western Producer

4 mins ago Analysis By Paul Goble | 4 mins ago

In the course of a wide-ranging discussion in advance of the release of his new book on Russia today, Moscow economist Vladislav Inozemtsev provides perhaps the most compelling argument yet on why Vladimir Putin will do everything he can to ensure that Ukraine fails in its efforts to become a modern state and why the West must make sure it does.

Arguing that Russia at present is not threatened by disintegration and that, as a result, the Kremlin may not feel compelled to make major changes in its manner of rule, the commentator says that Russia may only begin to change if an attractive example of what such changes could bring were to appear (znak.com/2017-05-15/ekonomist_vladislav_inozemcev_o_tom_kogda_rossiya_smozhet_postroit_demokratiyu).

Only Ukraine, he says, could play that role and shake up Russia, but it could do so only if it were to be rapidly transformed into a developed Western country, become a member of the European Union by 2025, and thus become a new Jerusalem, showing the way to the future for former Soviet republics.

But so far, Mr. Inozemtsev continues, the Kremlin has been lucky in that in Kyiv one kleptocrat has replaced another in power, while talented young people flee and there is complete stagnation as far as reforms are concerned. And growing Ukrainian Russophobia, which Mr. Putin has sponsored by his actions, works to the Kremlin leaders advantage.

As a result, for Russians as Mr. Putin intends, Ukraine has become an example of how not to act and this is the most powerful factor which in our days strengthens the Russian regime, the commentator says, adding that in his view, all the members of the Kyiv cabinet of ministers should be awarded medals For services to the [Russian] fatherland of various degrees.

At a time when many in Western capitals seem to have grown tired of the Ukrainian crisis brought on by the Russian Anschluss of Crimea and the invasion of the Donbas and want to focus on Moscow alone, Mr. Inozemtsevs argument is critical: If the West really wants Russia to change in the ways it says it does, then the West must make sure Ukraine succeeds.

That wont be easy, but the Moscow commentator has performed a useful service by reminding everyone that what is at stake in Ukraine is not just Ukraine and its heroic people, but the fate of Russia and much else.

Paul Goble is a long-time specialist on ethnic and religious questions in Eurasia who has served in various capacities in the U.S. State Department, the Central Intelligence Agency and the International Broadcasting Bureau, as well as at the Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The article above is reprinted with permission from his blog called Window on Eurasia (http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/).

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Why Putin can't allow Ukraine to succeed and why the West must make sure it does - The Ukrainian Weekly (press release) (subscription)

A spokeswoman for U.S. President Donald Trump says sanctions against Russia for its interference in Ukraine would remain in place until the crisis is resolved.

Spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders on June 8 said the United States "is committed to existing sanctions against Russia."

She added the administration will keep them in place "until Moscow fully honors its commitments to resolve the crisis in Ukraine."

"We believe that the existing executive-branch sanctions regime is the best tool for compelling Russia to fulfill its commitments," she added in an off-camera briefing with reporters.

The United States and other Western nations imposed sanctions on Moscow in 2014 for its illegal annexation of Ukraines Crimean Peninsula and its support for Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.

President Donald Trump has caused some concern among allies about his commitment to sanctions, praising Russian President Vladimir Putin and saying he wants to improve relations with Moscow.

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White House Says Russia Sanctions To Remain Until Ukraine Crisis Resolved - RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

South Africa's team management is trying to keep the players calm and convince them to carry on their cricket as normal ahead of the knockout match against India on Sunday. Following South Africa's defeat to Pakistan, and India's subsequent loss to Sri Lanka, the match at The Oval is a winner-takes-all affair, and given South Africa's history in knockout matches it's understandable if butterflies are fluttering. But batting coach Neil McKenzie said the backroom boys were trying to keep belief high.

"Because there is no insurance, you can sometimes take a knockout game too seriously and put too much pressure on yourself," he said. "We've had a lot of chats about keeping things exactly the same, being okay with the extra nerves but trusting your game-plan, trusting your blueprint and trusting the players that you've been playing with and been around for 18 months, doing well with.

"It's okay to feel extra tension, but it shouldn't be affecting your performances. We've tried to emphasise that our blueprint is good enough to beat any side. Our game plan is good enough to beat any side. It's making sure we can execute that."

McKenzie admitted the crunch moment has come sooner than South Africa would have liked, but said it is an opportunity to show what they have been working towards. "We were hoping [we would feel this] in a semi-final, but it has come one game early. All that we've put in place, and all our thinking and chats over the last 18 months has come a game early. It's quite exciting for the management, and it's all that we've been planning that we've got to be out there. Against India, a huge Indian crowd, you can't get more pressure cooker than that, but we think we're prepared."

Despite losing to the tournament's lowest-ranked side, South Africa are still the No.1 ODI team. They got there by winning seven of their last nine ODI series. That may count for nothing against India, but McKenzie said it was an indication of what they had done right. "The cricket we have been playing over the last 18 months suggests that if we get our blueprint right and we play somewhere where we know we can be, we should come up on top."

The "blueprint" McKenzie referred to is the same one he believed has fashioned most wins this tournament. With sporting surfaces upfront, McKenzie believed the best way to approach an innings is "a solid foundation, then middle order needs to hit space, knock it around, set up that platform and then obviously try and cash in. Most teams have been getting 70s and 80s in the last 10. That's normally our blueprint."

South Africa failed to do that against Pakistan because the top order was rattled. Only David Miller, with some support from Chris Morris, lent the innings some gravitas. In particular, South Africa's reticence against the spinners brought up a familiar weakness, but McKenzie said the familiarity of India's spinners should aid them.

"Both squads are blessed with a lot of variation - we are talking about Ashwin to our left-handers in the middle stages, but everybody knows what everybody can do. We know what Ashwin and Jadeja do. A lot of the guys have played with and against them in the IPL. It's not like they are coming with any mystery balls or bowlers. It's just down to preparation."

With rain around, South Africa held an optional practice session on Friday to remain "mentally fresh." They will go full tilt at training on Saturday to make sure they are fully ready to take on India.

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South Africa's mental prep in full swing ahead of knockout - ESPN

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and former President Barack Obama left their ties at home Tuesday night as they casually dined at a Montreal restaurant.

Obama had earlieraddresseda crowd of 6,000 people at the Montreal Board of Trade during his first post-presidency visit to Canada. He did not mention President Donald Trump by name but denouncedthe current administrations lack of leadership on climate change and diplomacy.

Following the event, Obama and Trudeau headed to the St. Henri neighborhood for dinner. According to the Montreal Gazette, people crowded outsideLiverpool Houseto get a look at the two leaders.Liverpool House is the popular sister restaurant to the trendy eatery Joe Beef.

People on Twitter loved it. Some hoped for a cameo appearance by Frances new president, Emmanuel Macron, while others complimented the pair on their restaurant choice.

And, of course, some wondered if the dinner jeopardized a certain bromance.

CORRECTION: This article previously misstated the name of Liverpool Houses sister restaurant: It is Joe Beef, not Joes Beef.

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Obama Follows Montreal Speech With ...