Archive for March, 2017

Fall of Mosul won’t spell end of ISIS, Iraq may split apart Kurd … – RT

Published time: 5 Mar, 2017 15:01

The much-awaited fall of Mosul will not result in ISIS defeat in Iraq, which is likely to split like Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, and other states torn by political or ethnic rifts, the leader of Iraqi Kurdistan said in an interview with Italian media.

Masoud Barzani, president of the Iraqi Kurdistan region since 2005, told La Stampa newspaper that the liberation of Mosul, where US-backed Iraqi troops continue their advance on Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL), will not bring the defeat of the terrorist group.

The fall of Mosul will not result in the defeat of IS, they will opt for other offensive tactics, both inside and outside the city, he argued. To beat them, you have to defeat them on different levels, including in ideology, economy and social issues. Their terror will last for a long time.

As the battle of Mosul progressed, leaders of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) began to discuss scenarios of how northern Iraq mostly populated by Kurds would look when the terrorist group is forced out of the city. Though Peshmerga paramilitary forces have joined forces with Iraqi troops against IS, many Kurdish leaders say the time has come for Kurdistan to secede.

Barzani, and outspoken advocate of Kurdish autonomy, also said he believes Iraq will end up like Czechoslovakia a former socialist state which split in 1993 into the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

In the Middle East and Europe, history has shown that states created after the First and Second World Wars have proved unsustainable and fictitious. Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia have faded away, as it happens today to the legacy of Sykes-Picot, he said, referring to a secret 1916 pact negotiated by British diplomat Mark Sykes and his French counterpart Francois Georges-Picot to define both countries spheres of influence on the former Ottoman Empire lands in the Middle East.

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Many historians believe the pact was elaborated without any regard to the ethnic or sectarian features of the Arab world, which resulted in conflict and religious discord.

A desire to keep Iraq united is there but the reality says that it is already divided by unsolvable problems. Sunnis and Shiites have been fighting for 1,400 years and we Kurds are the victims of this war, Barzani said. We have to find a new formula of coexistence.

He added that defeating Islamic State in parts of Iraq came at the cost of Kurdish lives, and that too many massacres have taken place, so there is no room for reconciliation.

Independence of Kurdistan would create a stability area in this region. We have already seen too much blood and injustice. Our society is to be based on the rule of law, respect for democratic values as well as coexistence between different identities, Barzani concluded.

The KRG is the official ruling body of the predominantly Kurdish autonomous region of northern Iraq. In July 2014, President Barzani announced that Iraqi Kurds would hold an independence referendum. However, with the emergence of IS, the security situation forced these plans to be postponed.

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Fall of Mosul won't spell end of ISIS, Iraq may split apart Kurd ... - RT

FOX Exclusive: Former Iraqi Vice President Allawi speaks on US relations, Trump – Fox News

As President Trump begins to lay out his policies for the Middle East, he will find a region in chaos -- and impossible choices ahead.

But in an exclusive interview with Fox News, the former vice president of Iraq, Ayad Allawi, said he looks forward optimistically to the president's policies, as he looks back sadly at former President Barack Obamas errors.

Speaking at his home in central Baghdad for the first time since Trump's election, Allawi is now able to open up about Obama's major mistakes, which critics say brought Iraq into turmoil and which Trump will need to address.

America has lost a lot of potential friends here in the region. and this is something that the new administration has to address.

Obamas principal error, says Allawi, was his disengagement from a country and a region which desperately needed U.S. support. At a time when Iraq couldnt stand on its own, Obama left -- leaving a vacuum for Iran to fill. Irans new influence, he says, is behind much of the bloodshed.

When our American friends left Iraq in 2011 they never laid down the issues that would strengthen the Iraqis to face the challenges ahead -- their sudden withdrawal in 2011 without the necessary preparation left us many problems to face.

Allawi, who also served as interim prime minister in 2014-2015, was very clear about Irans impact.

Its leading to bloodshed, to catastrophes and to wars around the Middle East.It has been a destabilizing factor. Its destabilizing Iraq, its destabilizing Syria its destabilizing other areas.

This Iranian influence, he said, could be traced firmly back to Obama. In 2010, Allawi won the elections in Iraq, winning the seats, but was pressured by the Obama administration to back down -- in a direct interference with the political system.

Biden came several times here; in fact, he used to come once a week to convince me to withdraw my interest and I told him we are not interested in withdrawing.

Eventually Obama got his way, and Iranian-backed Nouri Maliki stepped in. This is the moment Allawi sees as a turning point for Iraq Today large parts of the army are under Iranian control (via their support for Shia militias) and many state institutions also answer to Iran.

Today another country is also moving into the region Russia. But Allawi believes Russian President Vladimir Putin can and should be worked with to defeat ISIS.

I dont think we should look at competition here between the U.S. and Russia, but rather as supplementing each other, and this is what I look forward to -- what the new administration will do.

Allawi also doesnt believe the battle against ISIS is the final one.

I can see a lot of problems that will emerge after ISIS is defeated because I always say that not only is the military victory against ISIS enough, it needs to be supported by political gains."

Allawi says he hopes to unite Iraq -- Sunni, Shia and Kurdish -- but acknowledges it wont be easy -- Iraq is engulfed in sectarianism -- and many in the region, not least Iran, thrive on division.

He also hoped for U.S. support moving forward.

We dont want to see more American power here, we dont want to see more American troops here, we dont want to see more Americans being killed here in this country. But we need the political leverage of the U.S. to help Iraq and to develop Iraq."

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FOX Exclusive: Former Iraqi Vice President Allawi speaks on US relations, Trump - Fox News

Libya to Louisiana: An immigrant’s story – WWLTV.com

Megan Wyatt, mbwyatt@theadvertiser.com , WWL 11:00 AM. CST March 05, 2017

Salah ElDarragi, owner of Telesis Geophysical Services in Lafayette. (Photo: LEE CELANO/THE ADVERTISER) (Photo: (Photo: LEE CELANO/THE ADVERTISER))

LAFAYETTE, La. -- "You're looking at a guy who embodies the American dream. I had $1,000 and a suitcase and a whole bunch of dreams.

"That's all I had."

Salah ElDarragi, 60, stresses this point again and again.

The Lafayette businessman supports President Donald Trump's executive order to ban immigration from seven countries including Libya, the one he immigrated from in 1975.

"I really, truly believe I have a very unique perspective on this whole immigration issue," ElDarragi says. "I kind of have mixed emotions about it."

ElDarragi managed to escape his hometown of Benghazi, Libya, just before things got bad.

Friends he left behind were arrested, tortured and hung publicly for speaking out against the government.

It could have been him.

He, too, had participated in anti-government demonstrations before leaving Libya for Louisiana.

ElDarragi sympathizes with refugees and immigrants who see opportunity in America the way he did so many years ago.

He also believes anybody joining a new society should do so legally, assimilate quickly and work hard. If that means waiting until the ban is lifted, so be it.

"You're speaking to the absolute example of the American dream," ElDarragi says. "If my story can help someone else, why shouldn't I share it?"

SalahElDarragiis pictured as a child in Benghazi, Libya, in this photo from 1960. (Photo: Submitted)

ElDarragi is the first-born of three children.

His father worked for the state department in Libya, and his mother cared for him and his younger brother in their Benghazi home. She was pregnant with his youngest brother the day the dreaded news came.

His father died in an airplane crash on his way to a training mission in the United States.

"I was suddenly pushed into the forefront," ElDarragi recalls. "'Salah, you're now the man of the house at the age of four.' And I don't remember really having much of a childhood because I was just all of a sudden consumed by this intense desire to protect my brothers and my mother."

That was in 1960.

Although his uncles and grandfather helped the family stay afloat, ElDarragi struggled with the loss of his father.

He did everything he could to ensure his younger brothers didn't feel the void as much.

"I was a pretty good soccer player," ElDarragi says. "And I would score a really good goal, and I wouldn't even bother looking to the sidelines like the other kids because I knew there wouldn't be anybody there watching me.

"That void caused me to start skipping school. And I would walk the equivalent of 4 miles to my two brothers' school, and I would stand on the side for them."

ElDarragi was just 11 at the time.

On the sidelines, the other men because only fathers, uncles and grandfathers watched soccer in this male-dominated culture eyed him with suspicion.

His grandfather eventually learned that he was skipping school. Even when his grandfather accused him of "going with the bad kids" to smoke cigarettes, ElDarragi didn't tell his grandfather why he'd been skipping school.

"He was trying to do so much for us, and I didn't want him to get the feeling he was missing something," ElDarragi says.

"I knew in my heart I wasn't going to quit doing it because I saw how much it meant to my brothers that I was there on the sidelines for them."

One day on the sidelines, he felt a tap on his shoulder. It was his youngest uncle, who told his grandfather why ElDarragi had been skipping school.

That was the only time he saw his grandfather cry.

"You don't see grown men cry in that culture," ElDarragi says. "It's frowned upon. It means you're not man enough. I appreciated it because it showed me that he was a human being after all."

SalahElDarragi, left, is pictured with his mom,MariamElDarragi, in 2006. (Photo: Submitted)

ElDarragi applied for a student visa to live in the United States in 1974.

The process included writing to and obtaining documentation from American colleges and universities, getting a background check, filling out paperwork and paying fees at the embassy in Libya's capital, Tripoli.

About six months later, ElDarragi was on his way to Baton Rouge to attend LSU.

"I was completely unaware of the differences between states in America," ElDarragi says with a laugh. "If you had asked me at that time 'What's the difference between Florida and North Dakota?' I wouldn't have been able to tell you."

LSU accepted him, and that was good enough.

But ElDarragi soon felt overwhelmed by the large campus and his new city. He spoke with his counselor, who recommended that he look into the University of Southwestern Louisiana, now the University of Louisiana at Lafayette.

ElDarragi visited, fell in love with the college and community and made the move to Lafayette in 1975 after just one semester at LSU.

He remembers joking with his mother about why he loved Cajun Country so much.

"Son, how do you like it there?" she would ask him.

"Mom, it's perfect," he would reply.

"It's perfect? The weather's great or what? What is it?" she'd ask.

"No, it's not that. I can't speak good English, and they can't either," he'd quip, referring to the prevalence of Cajun French in Acadiana at the time.

ElDarragi spoke decent English when he arrived in Louisiana.

Even though he'd studied the language in school as a teenager, it was his high school girlfriend who helped him master it.

She spoke Greek, and he spoke Arabic. English was their common language.

In fact, ElDarragi said he didn't learn anything new in college until his junior year because his high school curriculum in Benghazi was so rigorous.

What ElDarragi did learn in his first two years was more about Cajun culture. He vividly remembers his first encounter with mudbugs at UL's Lagniappe Day.

"I remember grabbing the plate and sitting down and looking at it full of crawfish, and that was the very first time I ever laid eyes on crawfish and I said, 'You've got to be kidding me.' I just handed it over to the next guy and said, 'No, I don't think so.'"

Now, 42 years later, ElDarragi can easily eat 5 pounds of "very spiced up" crawfish.

SalahElDarragi, right, is pictured with his wife, LaurieElDarragi, and child,ShabreElDarragi, in 1980. (Photo: Submitted)

ElDarragi never intended to become an American citizen. He planned to return to Libya.

But he likes to say that fate intervened when he met his wife, Laurie, a New Orleans native who was living in Lafayette.

The two were married in 1979, and ElDarragi became a nationalized citizen a year later.

"The reality is that none of this was planned," he says. "I came here to go to school with the understanding that I was going back home after. But looking back, it really is amazing how fate got me to this point.

"It has occurred to me that if I returned to Libya, I'd be dangling from the end of a rope because I was classified as 'one of them.'"

ElDarragi is referring to those who opposed the terrorism happening under Libya's former leader, Muammar Qaddafi.

His priorities evolved over the years as he completed a geology degree at UL, had children and started a marine survey company, Telesis Geophysical Service.

"I came here with the understanding that I would some day go back home and rebuild that place," he says.

"At the tender age of 60, that window is closing rapidly, but it is my dream that some day Libya can join the rank of free democratic nations and allow me the opportunity to travel there safely, to bring my family there."

ElDarragi has only visited his hometown four times since he immigrated to America. His wife and five grown children have never seen the place where he grew up.

Now, it's too late.

His childhood home and neighborhood were recently leveled in the civil war, but it's not something ElDarragi dwells on.

He's an American and honorary Cajun who now speaks English more fluently than Arabic.

"I passionately love this country. I passionately love this city and this culture," ElDarragi says. "And that's because I achieved full assimilation to this society.

"I didn't keep myself surrounded by four walls and practice things that are foreign to this place. I wore what they wear. I ate what they eat. I didn't ask for a button on the telephone that says, 'If you speak Arabic, push number three.'"

A scripture which appeared onSalahElDarragi'sscreen one night. (Photo: LEECELANO/THE ADVERTISER) (Photo: (Photo: LEE CELANO/THE ADVERTISER))

ElDarragi, who is a practicing Christian today, would not have been allowed to immigrate to America if the current restrictions applied when he immigrated.

He was a Muslim at the age of 18 when he left Libya, even though he wasn't actively practicing Islam.

This is the part of Trump's executive order that ElDarragi takes issue with.

"The federal law is clear that the president has the authority to limit or restrict immigration from anybody in any country that he deems to be a threat to the United States," ElDarragi says.

"Having said that, I think that to select a particular group of people or in this case, a particular religion is contrary to our values as Americans."

Still, ElDarragi supports most of Trump's initiatives, including his plan to build a wall at the Mexican-American border.

"How can a sovereign country not secure its borders?" he asks.

When ElDarragi speaks about his own immigration, he stresses how lucky he is to have landed in Cajun Country.

The humid climate took time to adjust to, but so many things about Acadiana remind him of the good parts of the home he left behind.

"I came to a place where unlike many parts of the country family values are truly important and food and company and companionship are still strong. These are the values that I grew up with," ElDarragi says.

"Had I ended up in Seattle, Washington, God knows what would have happened."

( 2017 WWL)

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Libya to Louisiana: An immigrant's story - WWLTV.com

Five missing after 122 migrants rescued off Libya – Vanguard

Five people remained missing on Sunday after scores of migrants in an inflatable boat were rescued in turbulent waters off the coast of Libya overnight.

About 122 of the migrants were saved after being spotted by the Golfo Azzuro, run by the Spanish Proactiva Open Arms group.

We saw the lights, the rescue boat, but we were very far, Farses, a migrant from Ghana, told AFP aboard the Golfo Azzuro.

He had earlier been playing draughts, also called checkers, with another Ghanaian; both had won a game, so they agreed to play the tiebreaker once they were in Italy.

But the friend fell asleep, and was among seven who fell into the sea when a strong wind buffeted the boat. Only two people were recovered.

He was swimming very fast. But we couldnt wait for him, because the wind was very strong, Farses said.

The one who was driving the boat wouldnt stop, (saying) We have to move on, move on.

The Spanish boat brought the migrants to the Italian island of Lampedusa, the latest in a wave of some 1,200 migrants that have been rescued on the Mediterranean and brought to Italy in recent days.

On Friday, the Italian coastguard said the number of migrants saved in rescue operations this year had surpassed 15,000.

Aid groups say the exodus is being driven by worsening living conditions for migrants in Libya and by fears the sea route to Europe could soon be closed to traffickers.

The United Nations refugee agency estimates that 440 people have lost their lives trying to make the crossing from Libya to Italy since the start of 2017.

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Five missing after 122 migrants rescued off Libya - Vanguard

Oil prices increase as conflicts in Libya, Iraq intensify – Libyan Express

Seeking Alpha A new set of geopolitical conflicts buoyed oil prices higher today after yesterdays sell-off pushed WTI below its 50-day moving average. Conflicts in Iraq and Libya were the main reason for the rise in oil (NYSEARCA:USO) prices today, while consensus continue to overwhelmingly focus their attention on US shale production and rig counts.

Oil markets are prone to geopolitical risk factors that are hard to forecast. Namely, Iraq is having issues again with Kurdish factions.

Since the OPEC production cut deal started, secondary sources peg Iraq as the least compliant member out of OPEC. Our estimate and secondary sources put Iraqs production cut at only 80k to 100k b/d, which is far less than what it promised to cut.

Iraq is unlikely to cut the full amount promised from the OPEC agreement due to the nature of its production. Conflicts erupted with Kurdistan as Iraqs current oil revenue sharing deal is coming under scrutiny with the locals. Reuters reported that forces loyal to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) seized the Kirkuk facilities and briefly suspended oil flows. PUK is seeking to cancel the oil sharing deal with Iraq within a week or else it threatens further action.

The implication of this conflict can impact up to 150k b/d which is exported through Turkey.

Libya on the other hand is seeing geopolitical issues flare up again with the Eastern ports of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf under attack today by Benghazi Defence Brigades (BDB), an armed faction group comprised of fighters that were ousted from the Libyan National Army (LNA).

So far, there have been no official statements from the Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC) stating the impact the attacks had on oil flows.

The continued conflict in Libya however highlights the sensitive geopolitical situation its in with a split government ruling body and constant conflicts from armed militant groups. Libyas oil production has recently topped out around 680k b/d and falling according to the latest February estimates. Without additional capital investments, Libyas existing producing fields will likely start seeing accelerating production decline rates as a lack of field maintenance from the last five years start to deplete existing fields. We see Libyas oil production heading lower for the rest of 2017.

Geopolitical conflicts from Iraq and Libya will continue, and the likely impact will be supportive of oil prices. Our fundamental analysis of the oil markets also point to the supply and demand balance becoming more bullish over the next several months. We expect to see much higher oil prices in the next six months.

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Oil prices increase as conflicts in Libya, Iraq intensify - Libyan Express