Archive for March, 2017

IEA Doubles Forecast for New OPEC Oil by 2022 as Iraq Ramps Up – Bloomberg

OPEC will increase its production capacity by about twice as much as previously thought, led by expansion in Iran and Iraq, the International Energy Agency said.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will raise output capacity by 1.95 million barrels a day from 2016 to 2022, with a third of the gains concentrated in Iraq, the IEA said. Last year the Paris-based agency predicted growth of 800,000 barrels a day from 2015 to 2021.

While OPEC is leading an effort by global producers to clear a glut this year by reducing output, the organization is getting ready to meet rising demand in coming years. Iraq is rehabilitating its oil industry after years of conflict, while neighboring Iran is seeking foreign investors after the lifting of nuclear-related sanctions.

The group is building capacity even as it reduces in 2017, in anticipation of higher demand, said the IEA, which advises most of the worlds biggest economies on energy policy. Capacity growth is concentrated in the low-cost Middle East, with Iraq leading the gains.

Iraq will retain its position as OPECs second-biggest producer, adding 700,000 barrels a day to reach 5.4 million a day in 2022, according to the IEA, which last year saw the nation hitting 4.6 million by 2021. Most of the increase will come from oil fields in the south of the country, such as the Majnoon project operated by Royal Dutch Shell Plc.

Iran will expand capacity by 400,000 barrels a day to reach 4.15 million in 2022, according to the agency, which said the forecast hinges on whether the accord to lift international sanctions remains in place. Having been released last year from trade restrictions, the country has introduced a new contract model to attract foreign investors.

See also: Irans key to growth will be attracting investment to energy industry

With supplies from outside OPEC also projected to rebound sharply next year, its unclear whether therell be enough demand to immediately absorb extra crude from OPEC.

Could U.S. Oil Production Derail OPEC Deal?

Demand for the groups output will be at 33 million barrels a day in 2018, roughly in line with the amount it pumped before cutting production. Even if Saudi Arabia, OPECs biggest member, continues its policy of holding back some output for emergency use, the IEAs data point to considerable excess capacity next year.

Whether or not the group chooses to prolong the current agreement on output limits, it is difficult to imagine a return to the unbridled production that sent prices crashing to their lowest in more than a decade, the agency said.

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IEA Doubles Forecast for New OPEC Oil by 2022 as Iraq Ramps Up - Bloomberg

The stench of the Iraq war lingers behind today’s preoccupation with fake news – The Guardian

Trumps aggressive bluster might threaten a catastrophic war but Bush, Blair and Howard actually delivered one. Photograph: Jason Reed/Reuters

Australia invaded Iraq purely and simply to cement the alliance with the US. The purported justifications for war preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, enforcing international law, fighting terrorism were mandatory rhetoric, nothing more.

So says Dr Albert Palazzo from defences directorate of army research and analysis, in a secret report (released under FOI) based on multiple interviews conducted within military, and extensive access to classified material.

When Fairfax published a major feature last week about Palazzos research, the story made barely a ripple on the Australian political pond, probably because most people already recognise the unparalleled cynicism and dishonesty by which Operation Iraqi Freedom was foisted on an unwilling nation.

Nonetheless, Palazzos document still matters, as much for what it reveals about the politics of today as for its insights into the chicanery of 2003.

How can Trump tell such barefaced lies? Why not ask a different question: how did Bush, Blair and Howard get away with the duplicity with which they manoeuvred us into the Iraq charnel house?

The invasion resulted in more than a million deaths; it spread refugees all over the region; it sucked over a trillion dollars (and counting) from Americas coffers. Today, Iraq remains in flames, with the rise of Islamic State merely the latest (and by no means the last) reverberation of a war of choice deliberately embarked upon by our leaders.

In 3 April 2002, Tony Blair explained: We know that he [Saddam] has stockpiles of major amounts of chemical and biological weapons, we know that he is trying to acquire nuclear capability, we know that he is trying to develop ballistic missile capability of a greater range.

In October 2002, George Bush declared: [Iraq] possesses and produces chemical and biological weapons. It is seeking nuclear weapons.

In March 13 2003, John Howard said: We believe that it is very much in the national interest of Australia that Iraq have taken from her her chemical and biological weapons and denied the possibility of ever having nuclear weapons.

If world leaders can deceive voters about the greatest foreign policy debacle in a generation, why should a president today worry about casually lying about the crowds at his inauguration?

Not surprisingly, you can detect the faint stench of Iraq lingering behind todays preoccupation with fake news.

Contrary to whats often assumed, readers do not mistake stories from conspiracy-mongering clickbait for mainstream news. They dont click on rightwing conspiracy site Infowars by accident: a certain audience gravitates to such sites precisely because theyre not mainstream.

To put it another way, with trust in the establishment at an all time low, the institutional heft of traditional media companies becomes a liability rather than an asset, enabling Trump to successfully turn the fake news label onto his opponents.

Much of that goes back to Iraq.

The period of time between 9/11 and the invasion of Iraq represents one of the greatest collapses in the history of the American media, says Gary Kamiya. Every branch of the media failed, from daily newspapers, magazines and websites to television networks, cable channels and radio.

Bush administration lies and distortions went unchallenged, or were actively promoted. Fundamental and problematic assumptions about terrorism and the war on terror were rarely debated or even discussed. Vital historical context was almost never provided. And it wasnt just a failure of analysis. With some honourable exceptions, good old-fashioned reporting was also absent.

Lets look at the most famous example of how the media was used to make the Iraq war happen.

On September 8 2002, the New York Times published a major story by Michael R Gordon and Judith Miller asserting that Iraq had stepped up its quest for nuclear weapons and embarked on a worldwide hunt for materials to make an atomic bomb. The piece cited no named sources whatsoever. Rather, it attributed all its significant claims simply to anonymous US officials and, by so doing, it helped launder the Bush administrations talking points, lending a liberal imprimatur to unverified (and totally untrue) claims.

When the key members of the Bush administration launched a publicity blitz to make the war happen, they were able to quote the New York Times as evidence: in effect, reacting to newspaper revelations for which they themselves were responsible.

For instance, during a CNN appearance, Condoleeza Rice urged the public to support an invasion on the basis that we dont want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud. Shed lifted the phrase directly from Gordon and Miller whod taken it from the administration.

Elsewhere, Gordon and Miller referred to Iraqs supposed interest in acquiring high-strength aluminium tubes as an illustration of its nuclear ambitions. Again, the claims came from Bush officials. But when, at the UN General Assembly, Bush told the story, he sounded as if he were repeating a New York Times scoop.

A similar circularity defined the propaganda campaign conducted in other countries.

No serious figure in the debate anywhere believes Iraq does not have [weapons of mass destruction], proclaimed the Australians Greg Sheridan in March 2003. He was certainly right about that. In 2002 and 2003, journalistic seriousness over Iraq was defined by participation in the feedback loop between the pro-war reporters and the pro-war politicians, who leaned upon each other like drunks at closing time, repeating and amplifying the (largely untrue) claims of the Bush and Blair administrations.

We can see in that an obvious antecedent for Donald Trumps bizarre relationship with the media today.

Even as Trump and his surrogates take aim at mainstream outlets, theyve established a rapport with the new, rightwing media that mimics the curious symbiosis between Bush and the New York Times Judith Miller, with Trump relying on his alt-right journalistic enablers to reinforce and amplify his alternative facts.

You look at whats happening last night in Sweden, declared Trump in a speech in Florida. Sweden! Who would believe this? Sweden!

When puzzled Swedes explained that nothing out of the ordinary had happened, Trump cited the screening of a Fox News documentary about refugees. Meanwhile, far right websites everywhere doubled-down on Trumps claim. Suddenly, Sweden a country to which most conservatives had previously paid almost zero attention was held up throughout the Trumposphere as a cautionary tale about immigration.

Within the closed ecosystem of the far right media, you could thus hear a weird echo of Greg Sheridan on Iraq: no serious figure in the debate anywhere doesnt believe Sweden to be a crime-ridden hell hole.

As the catastrophic incompetence of Bush and his cronies became more and more obvious, most of the progressive journalists and pundits whod backed the Iraq invasion walked (or perhaps tiptoed) back their support.

So where George W Bush cultivated certain elite liberals (the late Christopher Hitchens comes to mind) to sell his program, Trump, by necessity as much as by choice, identifies as an opponent the mainstream media in its entirety the enemy of the people, as he recently put it.

Yet that rhetoric still draws on the hysterical, threat-laden discourse that accompanied the march to war in Iraq.

I accuse the media in the United States of treason.

Thats not Steve Bannon or another Trumpite writing today. It comes from a Washington Post op ed published in 2002 by Dennis Pluchinsky, a senior intelligence analyst working for the US Department of State.

Back then, that sort of stuff was remarkably common.

Recall the fate of the Dixie Chicks, boycotted and subjected to a barrage of abuse for daring to criticise Bush. Recall NBC dumping Phil Donahue for presenting guests who are anti-war, anti-Bush and sceptical of the administrations motives. Recall the FBIs systemic surveillance of anti-war activists and organisations. Recall White House press secretary Ari Fleischer responding to critics by explaining Americans need to watch what they say, what they do. This is not a time for remarks like this; there never is and attorney general John Ashcroft telling civil libertarians: Your tactics only aid terrorists for they erode our national unity and diminish our resolve.

If weve forgotten that period, its probably because many of those who once urged Bush to crack down on dissenters now worry that, under President Trump, they might be targets themselves.

For instance, the American essayist Andrew Sullivan recently declared Trump literally delusional, clinically deceptive and warned that the President responds to any attempt to correct the record with rage and vengeance.

But in 2002, Sullivan was one of the many Bush supporters engaged in precisely that kind of intimidation against those who opposed the march to war.

The middle part of the country the great red zone that voted for Bush is clearly ready for war, he wrote. The decadent Left in its enclaves on the coasts is not dead and may well mount what amounts to a fifth column.

The extremity of the Trump presidency tends to recast past administrations in the pastel glow of nostalgia, providing an opportunity that the politicians of yesteryear have been quick to grasp. Tony Blairs been nosing around the British Labour party once more, George Bush spoke up to defend the media against Donald Trump and John Howard, when hes not championing western civilisation, says Trump emerged as a response to political correctness.

In that context, its important to emphasise that many of the worst things Trump promises (torture, racial profiling, detention without trial, etc) were implemented during the Bush years. Trumps aggressive bluster might threaten a catastrophic war but Bush, Blair and Howard actually delivered one.

To put it another way, these men created the conditions in which Trumpism emerged. Have a look at the Palazzo report, and the extraordinary cynicism with which our leaders embarked on armed conflict. Such people are part of the problem: theyre not any kind of solution.

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The stench of the Iraq war lingers behind today's preoccupation with fake news - The Guardian

New Trump immigration order grants Iraq a reprieve – Science Magazine

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.

Kevin Lamarque/REUTERS

By Meredith WadmanMar. 6, 2017 , 4:45 PM

President Donald Trump today dropped Iraq from a list of countries targeted in a controversial 27 January executive orderon immigration. That proclamationcaused chaosby blocking nationals of seven largely Muslim countries from entering the United States for 90 days, and indefinitely blocking Syrian refugees.

Today, Trump rescinded that order and replaced it with a 90-day ban, effective 16 March, on entry of nationals from Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen.The new executive order, does not apply to those who currently hold a valid visa, or who held one at the time that the 27 January measure went into effect,. It also exempts permanent residents, known as green card holders. It reduces the indefinite ban on Syrian refugees to a 120-day hiatus. And it drops preferential treatment for members of religious minorities fleeing persecution, which was widely read as favoring non-Muslims.

It is the president's solemn duty to protect the American people, and with this order President Trump is exercising his rightful authority to keep our people safe, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said in announcing the order.

The academic community was not appeased by the changes. During the 2015-16 school year, more than 15,450 students and over 2,100 scholars from the six countries targeted in this ban studied and conducted research at U.S. universities, said Peter McPherson, the president of the Association of Public and Land-grant Universities in Washington, D.C., in a statement. The pipeline of new students and scholars from those countriesmany of whom are in the midst of the college application processis now cut off.

The new order, like its predecessor, poses a fundamental long-term threat to Americas global leadership in higher education, research, and innovation, added Mary Sue Coleman, the president of the Association of American Universities, also in Washington, D.C.

Wael Al-Delaimy, an epidemiologist at the University of California, San Diego, who was born in Iraq, says that the exclusion of Iraqis from the new ban brings cold comfort.It is the whole concept of barring people from travelling because of nationality and religion that is problematic, and this is still there in the new order, he says. I am concerned for the interest of other colleagues and for the freedom of science and research. Many scientists and academics will have their careers or plans disrupted.

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New Trump immigration order grants Iraq a reprieve - Science Magazine

Iraq warns of Aust ‘sleeping’ terrorists – 9news.com.au

Iraq has warned of a possible "sleeping colony" of potential terrorists in Australia, according to The Australian.

The middle east country's ambassador Hussain Al-Ameri has in an interview cited concerns within the local Iraq community about the radicalisation of its young people.

"When anyone with Australian citizenship ... we are not expecting that he's a terrorist. But maybe he's a member of a 'sleeping colony'. And maybe he was brainwashed already because the people who practise brainwashing are already in Australia, and they are active," Mr Al-Ameria said.

AAP 2017

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Iraq warns of Aust 'sleeping' terrorists - 9news.com.au

The fantastic nine of Libya: These archaelogists dodged ISIS threat to dig up an ancient cave – Scroll.in

7 hours ago.

True heroes, generous hearts: these are the Libyan archaeologists who, with Daesh (the Arabic acronym of ISIS) at their heels, have accomplished the feat of completing the excavation of the Haua Fteah cave in Cyrenaica, one of the most important prehistoric sites of all Africa. When, in 2013, the team of international researchers involved at the site was forced to suspend work, nine Libyan archeologists two women and seven men successfully completed the excavation by themselves, securing its secrets for posterity. Thus the history of human population along the North African coast over the last 100 thousand years can now be written.

Haua Fteah is, in fact, the largest karst cave in the Mediterranean (measuring 80 x 20 metres) and is open to the sea a short distance from the city of Susa, the ancient Apollonia. It is a sort of natural hangar, inhabited uninterruptedly by humans from prehistoric times until the present. Investigated for the first time between 1951 and 1955 by Charles McBurney an archaeologist from the University of Cambridge, the same university resumed the research in 2007 under the direction of Professor Graeme Barker, in collaboration with the Libyan Department of Antiquities and an international team of scholars, including myself.

Beginning at the earliest levels, at about 15 metres below the current surface and relating to the Middle Palaeolithic, the cave takes us on a breathtaking journey through time. We first move through the levels dating back to 70,000 years ago where the only human remains found so far at the site two fragments of Homo sapiens lower jaw were uncovered: a moving testimony to the arrival of our ancestors along the North African coast.

We can then examine the layers of the Upper Paleolithic on our way to the Neolithic, when the first species of domesticated animals and plants of the Levantine regions made their appearance in North Africa. Continuing our journey towards the surface, through layers dating from the Classical Period and thence more recent ones, we arrive at the present day. Like a wonderful freeze frame which has lasted thousands of years, the cave is still in use to this very day, as a livestock shelter, by families of shepherds. It is greatly respected by the local population.

Despite the instability that has followed the collapse, in 2011, of the Gaddafi regime in Libya, we continued to work at Haua Fteah albeit with considerable difficulty until September 2012 when the US Ambassador to Libya, Chris Stevens, was assassinated in Benghazi. The terrible news reached us while we were actually digging in the cave. We were struck by a deep sense of loss, but also with concern for our own safety. We left Libya a few days later and, after months of indecision and another very brief campaign in 2013, Graeme Barker reluctantly decided to suspend the excavation. Daesh had definitively taken control of the city of Derna, just 60 km east of Haua Fteah, and the risk to our safety was really too great.

However, our Libyan colleagues continued to monitor the massive open trench, and a short while later they informed us that its walls, exposed since 2007, were not going to last for long. To safeguard and bring to a conclusion the work of years, the excavation had to be completed as soon as possible. We can do it ourselves, said Ahmad Saad Emrage, archaeologist at the University of Benghazi. We can still work safely enough. We will be accurate and fast. So, without any delay, the command of operations fell to Ahmad and his team of local archaeologists: Fadl Abdulazeez, Akram Alwarfalli, Moataaz Azwai, Saad Buyadem, Badr Shamata, Asma Sulaiman, Reema Sulaiman and Aiman Alareefi.

Who are these Fantastic 9? They are, first and foremost, passionate archaeologists and serious professionals. Ahmad and Fadl are the fathers of the group, always ready to guide and encourage the younger ones; then there is Moataz, the tireless gentle giant; then two young daredevils, Akram and Saad, who, after a day of excavation, love to dive from the beautiful cliffs of Lathrun; also Badr and Aiman, who make sure the rest of the troop always has tea in their cups and sheesha to puff on; and then the two sisters, Aasma and Reema, who have iron will. Nine different individuals, nine different histories, united by an immense passion for their homeland, Libya, and by a single unwavering desire: to save their country and its history.

The first excavation campaign began on May 9, 2015, and was supposed to last for two months, but it was suspended after only four weeks. Ahmad told me:

After work started with no particular problem, the situation had rapidly deteriorated. Local sources had reported to us that Daesh militants had recently been seen in the Susa area. When passing through the town we would often hear gunfire and screams. We were afraid, but we did not want to stop. During the raids against the Daesh positions in Derna, Libyan air force planes and helicopters flew over the cave. We were by no means certain that they were all aware of our presence in the area, and, for fear of being mistaken for terrorists, we would run to take shelter in the back of the cave every time we heard the noise of an approaching aircraft.

I remember one day when I was carrying the long plastic tube we used to store the stratigraphy drawings of the excavation over my shoulder; on hearing the sound of an approaching helicopter, Fadl grabbed the tube and threw it away from us, for fear it could be mistaken for a rocket launcher. We were extremely tense, and when the helicopter finally moved away, we looked at each other and burst into laughter.

We were increasingly afraid but we continued to work. One day, however, a friend came running, shouting that the night before he had seen masked men in the vicinity of the cave, almost certainly Daesh militiamen. And shortly afterwards the Susa police arrived and forced us to stop work. It was not easy to convince the boys that we could not go on. We can still do it they kept repeating well be even more careful and fast. Reluctantly, however, we collected the equipment and left the cave.

But that was not the end by any means. Two months later, thanks to the liberation of Derna from Daesh militia, the Fantastic 9 returned to the cave and finally managed to complete the excavation. Do not call us heroes, Ahmad exclaimed when I told him that I would recount their adventure. We just did what had to be done, as archaeologists and as Libyans. However, in a country like Libya that sees its archaeological heritage so dramatically at risk, our colleagues achievement was exceptional in its significance: it showed that the Libyans have not given up, that they wish to reclaim their own cultural heritage and determine its fate themselves.

Dr Giulio Lucarini is a Leverhulme Research Fellow at the McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research in Cambridge. Excavation at Haua Fteah has been principally funded by the European Research Council, with supplementary funding from the Society of Libyan Studies, the projects sponsor.

This article first appeared on Archeostorie. Journal of Public Archaeology.

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The fantastic nine of Libya: These archaelogists dodged ISIS threat to dig up an ancient cave - Scroll.in