Archive for October, 2014

The Democrats' war at home

President Obama pauses as he gives a statement during a press conference in the Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House on August 18, 2014 in Washington, D.C. Win McNamee, Getty Images

This article originally appeared on Slate.

Sens. Mark Udall, Jeanne Shaheen, and Kay Hagan all serve on the Senate Armed Services Committee. With national security in the headlines, that position could give them standing to speak with authority about terrorist threats and what they believe the United States should do to respond to them. But at the moment when the president's response to the threat from ISIS is being criticized, and approval of his handling of foreign affairs is low (at only 34 percent), being a member from the same party with responsibility for national security issues may be a liability.

Republicans sure think so. In New Hampshire, Republican Senate challenger Scott Brown has been attacking Shaheen for months on a variety of national security issues. Mostly he has focused on securing the border, but in the last month he has talked more about ISIS. Last week he started running an ad that referred to the group. "President Obama and Sen. Shaheen seem confused about the nature of the threat" from radical Islamic terrorists, he says. This week, in North Carolina and Colorado, Republicans picked up the same line of attack.

The president announced military action against the jihadist outfit several weeks ago, but the issue is taking off in the broader political discussion only now. Republicans have an overwhelming advantage over Democrats when people are asked which party they trust to handle national security issues. In the latest CBS poll, Republicans have a 20-point lead on this question and respondents have elevated national security issues to their second-most important concern.

The danger for Republicans is that, despite their polling advantage on national security, the nation is not anxious to go to war. So while they may be ready to criticize the president, they don't have a clear policy prescription that is much different from his own. Former Vice President Dick Cheney's speech attacking President Obama three weeks ago contained several ideas for targeting the Islamist group. That same night Obama described a plan that essentially lined up with what Cheney had suggested. But with Republicans still criticizing the president's approach, it raises the natural question: What more would they like to do? That question leads to ground troops, an idea that almost no Republican (or anyone else) wants to raise, though GOP Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin on Tuesday said ground troops were the only way to defeat ISIS.

Republicans would rather talk about the past and make a seat on the Senate Armed Services Committee seem like a seat in the Situation Room. The most practical and pressing issue at the moment is how to combat this terrorist force. But there is also the important matter of whether those responsible for American national security are sufficiently vigilant. That's the part of the debate Republicans would like to have: Were the administration and its congressional allies asleep at the switch? That's a debate that doesn't immediately require Republicans to come up with a ready plan for what they would do while inflicting maximum blame on Democrats for letting the threat emerge.

Play Video

The president sits down with Steve Kroft to discuss the current strategy in the Middle East to combat ISIS.

President Obama told CBS's "60 Minutes" that he agreed with National Intelligence Director James Clapper's recent assessment that "we underestimated the Islamic State." Several officials in the intelligence agencies the president was including in that "we" do not happen to agree. I spoke to one former senior member of the intelligence community who says they had been watching and reporting on ISIS to the administration for a long time.

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The Democrats' war at home

In the Loop: Why do negative political fundraising appeals actually work?

If you are a recipient of Democrats campaign donation solicitation e-mails youd be right to assume the world is nearing its end.

But no, its just the end of the last quarter before Election Day.

With Democrats incapable of taking back the House and at risk of losing the Senate, the campaign committees have adopted a Chicken Little approach to fundraising. One message from the Democratic Governors Association even threatened a Dem-pocalypse. E-mail after e-mail foretells terrible outcomes that can only be avoided if you open up your checkbook immediately.

According to our colleague Ed OKeefe, the doomsday e-mails are working. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has outraised its GOP counterpart by roughly $33million this cycle, in part due to online contributions from the e-mails.

But why do they work?

We reached out to several psychologists to see what this tells us about the human psyche. In short, were a negatively inspired bunch.

A variety of research has long shown that people are far more likely to take action to avoid negative events than to produce positive ones, said Robert Epstein, senior research psychologist at the American Institute for Behavioral Research and Technology and the former editor-in-chief of Psychology Today magazine. Loss is simply more impactful than gain. Loss can even cause trauma, which can permanently alter ones life; there is no equivalent for gain. People know this intuitively, and so do the campaign managers and others whose job it is to manipulate the masses.

University of Nebraska political science and psychology professor Ingrid Haas agreed that negative emotions are very motivating so something like anger might be most effective for getting people to take action or donate money.

But Haas said one way to rouse people with positive feelings is to use messages of hope. (Remember Obama 2008?) Its difficult to sell a message that everything is great, so join the effort to help it stay great. But telling people that things arent as great as they could be, but theres hope for the future could spur action, she said.

Its all about creating an emotional impact, said John Rooney, professor of psychology at La Salle University. People tend to be motivated more by how theyre feeling rather than by their intellect, he said. Rooney believes its less about the tone of the message and more about whether it will arouse emotions.

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In the Loop: Why do negative political fundraising appeals actually work?

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