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Vladimir Putins time as Russian president has long featured a quiet campaign of disinformation and censorship at home. However, it is only since Russia began its all-out war on Ukraine that the world has truly woken up to this. In recent months, the Russian authorities have shuttered the countrys last independent media outlets, banned platforms such as Facebook and Twitter, and implemented laws that make free speech in the form of anti-war statements punishable by as much as 15 years in prison. So far, the regime has arrested more than 15,000 people for demonstrating against the war, which is acting as a powerful deterrent. For those willing to risk arrest, censorship makes it difficult to discover how many others share their opposition to the war, and hinders the organisation of protests.

Along with the repression of dissent, the Kremlin has manipulated Russias already twisted information ecosystem to promote its own version of events in Ukraine. This goes beyond the daily state-media lies about defeats, casualties, and objectives. The Russian authorities have also gone to great lengths to manufacture photographs and videos, including deepfakes (albeit those of questionable quality). For example, the Kremlin published photos and videos purporting to show that the flagship of Russias Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva, sank after catching fire in a storm when all the evidence seems to indicate that it was hit by Ukrainian missiles. Moreover, school-aged Russians are now subjected to the Ministry of Educations mandatory videos explaining the war.

This toxic marriage of censorship and disinformation damages the prospects for peace in Ukraine. It is difficult to see why a critical majority of Russians would pressure President Vladimir Putin to end his brutal obsession with Ukraine when they are made to believe that the war is a limited special operation, exaggerated by a Russia-hating West, a necessary act of self-defence, and a heroic bid to liberate decent Ukrainians from their neo-Nazi government. But understanding how and why these beliefs pervade Russian society will be fundamental to overcoming them. Here, psychology can help policymakers understand, predict, and modify censored and misinformed behaviour.

Social identity is particularly decisive in Russian repression. The Kremlin has skilfully exploited peoples need to belong to an in-group, tendency to resent an out-group, and desire for a prestigious identity. Throughout his reign, Putin has repeatedly referred to a shared community of iskonnye rossiiskie (primordial Russian) values along the same lines as his imperial and Soviet predecessors to establish a nationalist in-group while dramatically increasing hostility towards the West. For instance, in his recent Victory Day speech, he portrayed himself as a katechon a force that prevents the coming of the Antichrist to crystallise Russians sense of group identity.

This toxic marriage of censorship and disinformation damages the prospects for peace in Ukraine

Cognitive biases can help facilitate information warfare. For instance, availability bias can cause people to engage almost exclusively with readily available information and thereby avoid critical thinking (or further thinking of any kind). Similarly, confirmation bias the tendency to believe information that confirms pre-existing beliefs helps explain why a recent public opinion poll found that 89 per cent of Russians believed the aim of the current military operation was to protect and defend civilians in Ukraine, prevent an attack on Russia, or combat Ukrainian nationalists and denazify Ukraine. These responses which to the West may be blatant disinformation reflect what most Russians see as a heroic truth, as it confirms the group identities they have been fed by the Kremlin. Counter-narratives, which are the current defence of choice for key media outlets and EU initiatives such as the East StratCom Task Force, will not be enough to overcome this by themselves.

Of course, Ukrainians and EU citizens are also subject to cognitive biases and the dynamics of social identity. For example, Ukraine has sometimes used group psychology to create imaginary heroes such as an ace fighter pilot in Kyivs skies, aiming to boost morale and discredit Russia. Meanwhile, sensationalist headlines that label Russia a terrorist state draw a large audience not just because there is some truth to them but also because they satisfy readers desire to confirm pre-existing beliefs.

It is unsurprising that such techniques succeed in conflict zones and a repressive Russia at a time when conspiracy theories have even become widespread in some of the worlds freest media environments, making it harder for governments to contain a deadly pandemic and leading millions to reject the legitimacy of the 2020 US presidential election. As technology expert and former MEP Marietje Schaake argued in a recent ECFR policy discussion: disinformation and state propaganda doesnt just start when a tanks roll over a border.

However, there are also reasons for hope. Despite the Kremlins propaganda, demonstrations recently unfolded in more than 60 Russian cities. This is remarkable not just for the bravery of the organisers and other participants but also for their potential impact: protests in highly repressive contexts tend to be more successful than those in less repressive ones, because the signal of dissent is stronger. And many Russians are on a quest for the truth. Downloads of virtual private networks online tools that allow for some degree of freedom of expression increased by 2,692 per cent between 24 February and 31 March, making up Russias top three app-store searches during roughly the same period. Meanwhile, George Orwells works on repression are popular in Russia perhaps prompting the Russian Foreign Ministrys recent revival of the Soviet claim that 1984 is about the end of [Western] liberalism rather than totalitarianism.

In the context of Russias war on Ukraine, in which public perceptions are linked to the prospects for peace, European states need to adapt their information campaigns to the realities of information warfare. So far, their attempts to combat the Kremlins tactics have come from intelligence sharing, open-source fact-checking, and messaging. But disinformation and censorship cannot be countered purely through efforts to promote accurate information. If European states are to succeed in the task, their policies will need to account for the individual and group psychology that shapes the information landscape.

The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. ECFR publications only represent the views of their individual authors.

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Putins war at home: Censorship and disinformation - European Council on Foreign Relations

Whats the best time to post on Instagram? Hootsuites Senior Social Marketing Manager, Amanda Wood, and her team seek the answer.

Have you ever wondered what the most optimal time to post on Instagram is? We certainly have. Were excited to bring you another round of insights and learnings from our latest social media experiment this month!

As always, we worked with our lovely partner Stacey McLachlan to test the effectiveness of post timing on Instagram engagement rates. In this experiment, we tested Hootsuites recommended time to publish feature to see if it would improve engagement instead of posting at random times.

The ExperimentAs a social media strategist, Ive always been a firm believer in scheduling posts to engage audiences when they are online. So, our hypothesis for this test was that timing would be a component in a successful social media campaign and that posting when audiences are online would improve the overall engagement rate on Instagram.

We also wanted to figure out when was the optimal time to post. Tools like Hootsuites recommended time to publish were useful in helping us automate the process.

Stacey created and posted some wedding photos on Instagram at random times with a non-methodical cadence throughout the week on a wedding magazine Instagram account with roughly ten thousand followers.

The week after, she posted another selection of beautiful wedding photos using similar captions and images but utilized Hootsuites recommended time to publish feature. The way the feature works is Hootsuite bases suggestions on when your followers are most likely to be on a particular social network and when your account has accumulated the most engagement and views in the past using an algorithm.

Key LearningsDuring the two weeks, we monitored the performance of the posts and consolidated the findings. Heres what we found:

Hootsuites recommended times still helped the posts perform better, with higher impressions, comments, and likes on average than the random cadence of posting from the first week. For example, we saw a 30% increase in impressions, from 2,200 the week before to 2,900 during the Hootsuite Recommendation week.

The best-performing post got 30% more likes than the best-performing post the week prior.

Its safe to conclude that posting when your audience is online will generate more engagement on Instagram. While this may seem like a basic principle, its easy to get caught up in producing quality content itself that you dont stop to think about getting the maximized engagement on all your hard work by posting at the best time. So, what does it mean to post at the best time?

First, its essential to recognize that the best time will look different for everyonedepending on your brand, your goals, and the platform that you choose. Secondly, once youve nailed down an optimal time, understand that your audiences habits will evolve over timeand thus, so will your optimal time.

As you build out your social media strategy for the year, consider your goals and the audience you are trying to target. Then, research your audiences social media behaviors and get acquainted with them when they are active on social. You can also tap into your insights natively through Instagram or use Hootsuites automated scheduling tools for recommendations.

I encourage you to analyze test times on different platforms over different times. Every social media platform has its own user behaviors and may have suggestions on the best times to post you may be surprised with your findings!

At Hootsuite, we publish quarterly Digital Reports that include great in-depth data on different audiences and their internet/social media usage habits.

We hope these insights are useful as you schedule your next social posts! You can also check out our Hootsuite blog to read up on some of our other experiments, learn more about digital strategy and keep up with notable industry news!

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What's The Best Time To Post On Instagram? - We are Social Media

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WASHINGTON U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-ND) corrected the record on U.S. Department of the Treasury Secretary Janet Yellens remarks about the Democrats socialist, big government agenda during a Senate Banking committee hearing today. Senator Cramer specifically discussed the Congressional Budget Offices (CBO) score on Democrats Build Back Better agenda, the lack of work requirements for tax credits and new entitlement programs in the bill, and the current state of inflation with Secretary Yellen and Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell.

I want to read directly from the Congressional Budget Offices score. CBO estimates that enhancing this legislation would result in a new increase in the deficit totaling $367 billion over the 2022 through 2031 period,said Senator Cramer.Its $155 billion next year alone, and it continues for five years.

In response, Secretary Yellen acknowledged that the Democratstax and spending spree would add hundreds of billions of dollars to the deficit over the ten year period in CBOs score.

It does say $360 billion over ten year effect on the deficit,said Secretary Yellen.

Yellen also pointed to enhanced resources for tax enforcement to whichSenator Cramer responded,and fairy dust creates energy. The senator then pivoted to discussing the tax credits in the proposal noting the lack of work requirements to receive the credits.

If all of those credits and giveaways and incentives are going to help increase workforce participation, is there a work requirement tied to all of those?asked Senator Cramer.

There are places where there are not workforce requirements, like the child tax credit,replied Secretary Yellen.

Were talking about a workforce participation rate that needs to be increased, do any of these incentives require people to work to get them or is this just going to be added on to whatever theyre already getting regardless of their employment situation?asked Senator Cramer.

When Secretary Yellen did not answer the question, Senator Cramer answered it for her:They arent, just so you know,said the senator.

Senator Cramer wrapped up his questioning by discussing inflation with Chairman Powell, specifically noting the benefits of investing in the capacity of the economy rather than paying people not to work.

In North Dakota, inflation is over 7%... By the time we got to early this year, the winds of inflation were already blowing and the economy was already expanding, but the Democrats added $2 trillion more dollars to the debt and deficit as well as stimulating the economy without any requirement on the other side. Now were doing another whatever its going to be $2, $4, $5 trillion Democrats are going to push through,said Senator Cramer.[Stimulation] may help people pay for some things, but the cost does not come down.

Do you know of an economic model where costs come down when people have more money to spend on it?asked Senator Cramer.

Chairman Powell couldnt name an example, but hestatedthere are benefits to investments which create more capacity in the economy.

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Sen. Cramer Corrects the Record with Treasury Secretary Yellen on Democrats' Socialist, Big Government Agenda at Banking Hearing - Kevin Cramer

When was the last time you bought a product because you got enticed (and targeted) by an Instagram ad? Probably yesterdayand youre not the only one.

Whether you would like to admit it or not, its easy to fall trap to social media ads, which just proves that they do work. But of course, the process isnt as simple as opening an account, posting a photo, promoting the post, and calling it a day. Theres so much that goes into content creation and ad optimization, especially now that there the number of businesses competing for the attention of consumers is blowing up in numbers.

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Since TikTok is everyones favorite app as of late, youll learn hacks on TikTok marketing, along with a step-by-step guide on creating effective video ads. Youll also learn how to leverage Facebook groups, gain traffic and sell products on Reddit, and the secrets to viral marketing.

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Ace The Social Media Marketing Game With This Expert-Led Training Bundle - Black Enterprise

Voters of all stripes who live in three southcentral Pennsylvania counties have the opportunity to cast a ballot in a May 18 special election to decide who will represent them in the state Senate for the next 18 months.

On the ballots in Lebanon County and parts of York and Dauphin counties, voters will see the names of four candidates listed who hope to fill the 48th state Senatorial District seat that became open due to the January death of Sen. Dave Arnold. The winner will serve out the remainder of his term that expires Nov. 30, 2022.

This seat has rested securely in Republican hands for decades and that is an advantage that falls in Republican newcomer Christopher Gebhards favor.

But Dr. Calvin Clements, the Democrat in the race, is optimistic that voters in the district want someone like him working on their behalf in Harrisburg. He touts a science background and more than three decades of business acumen from operating veterinary clinics.

The seat also has attracted the interest of Ed Krebs, an independent who came out of retirement to launch his Bring People Together political movement. Krebs formerly served in the state House of Representatives for 12 years, first as a Democrat and then as a Republican. He believes his legislative experience along with his fiscally conservative but socially moderate views could attract Republican voters who want another option but cant bring themselves to vote for a Democrat.

Tim McMaster, a Libertarian who believes his partys desire to get government out of peoples lives, will carry enough appeal in this race to let his party finally gain a foothold in the Senate.

The interesting twist to this race is it will be decided in a special election that coincides with a primary.

Primary elections typically draw out only registered Republican or Democratic voters to decide their party nominees. But this primary also offers all voters, regardless of party, the chance to weigh in on some controversial proposed constitutional amendments that have been getting plenty of attention.

So that, plus the convenience of mail-in no-excuse voting, could make this race not as cut and dry as some might think.

Their aha moment

Each of the candidates came at their decision to run for this political office in a different way.

For Clements, it was the backlash to the COVID-19 pandemic and Republicans refusal, as he put it, to follow the science.

The 70-year-old retired veterinarian from Lebanon County agrees that Gov. Tom Wolfs mitigation orders were difficult but he said they were difficult to everybody. But without doing it, we would have had a tremendous amount of deaths beyond the more than 26,000 already recorded, he said.

For McMaster, an information technology analyst who operates a farm in York County, it happened when he was collecting signatures to get the Libertarian Party candidates on the 2020 general election ballot.

The 46-year-old overheard the partys presidential candidate Spike Cohen say the party really needed to focus on getting candidates elected to local offices so others could see we are just normal people who want other people to be free and unencumbered by government. He initially decided to run for township supervisor but switched gears when the Senate seat opened up.

For Krebs, it was the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol that roused his desire to return to government to serve only for the 18-month duration of the unexpired term.

The 77-year-old bicycle enthusiast has deep Lebanon County roots and a farming and economics background. He admits he also was influenced by people who like his philosophy of governing from the middle and not wanting the winner to be under control of the countys Republican Party leadership.

Gebhard, who at one point was challenged for the GOP nomination by seven other candidates, said running for a political office was not anything he ever thought he would do. Instead, his family was active in his Lebanon County community in other ways.

Weve always had the belief its the responsibility of everyone to do their small part to make their community a better place, said the 46-year-old owner of an insurance and risk management firm. I felt this was a calling to do that at a greater level.

Primary area of focus

All four identified financial-related issues as the primary area where they would focus their attention if elected.

For Gebhard, it would be looking to improve the states business climate.

We certainly need to look at our business environment and find ways to make it more competitive and make it more attractive so we can recruit and bring in businesses that are going to provide good family-supporting jobs, he said.

For Clements, its paying down the state pension systems unfunded liability and believes its necessary to freeze the defined benefit plan for current employees to bring the pension debt under control. While others maintain that would be unconstitutional, Clements said if its necessary to amend the constitution to make it happen, hes up for that.

For McMaster, its tax reform with an eye toward eliminating the state income tax. He said that revenue could be replaced with money from corporate taxes as a result of all the new businesses and workers that Pennsylvania would draw in being a no-income-tax state.

For Krebs, picking one primary area of focus was tough but among them was balancing a state budget without the smoke-and-mirror tactics of accounting gimmicks, dipping into special funds and ambitious revenue estimates.

I understand the games, he said. They havent passed a real balanced budget basically since I left the Legislature in 2002.

Will you be a full-time legislator?

For Krebs and Clements, the answer is yes, although neither considers serving in the Legislature as a job but rather a short-term public service opportunity.

McMaster raises goats and cows so he said he will still continue farming but would take a leave from his IT job if elected.

Gebhard, on the other hand, does not intend to step away from his business. He said that connection to the community will keep him grounded. Moreover, he said, its going to allow me to not be dependent on the Senate position to support my family. I think thats important because itll allow me to make decisions based on what is right rather than what I need to get re-elected.

What makes them the best qualified?

McMaster, a one-time professional wrestler, said he is not beholden to a party but rather the idea of freedom of the people and getting government out of peoples lives, out of their wallets and out of their bedroom.

I think thats what people really, really want, he said. Its the way our system was intended. The government was there as a necessary evil at best.

Clements cites his maturity, experience in operating a profitable chain of veterinary offices, creating 57 jobs, living within a budget and understanding science.

I can listen to a lot of opinions and can come up with a consensus as opposed to following the left or the right, he said.

Gebhard cites the fact that he isnt a career politician as a selling point to voters.

I think that gives me great independence. Im not beholden to anyone. The only people I answer to are the voters, he said. Im not dependent on this position to support my family and that gives me great independence, independence of thought and independence of action. I think those things are all important.

Krebs pointed to the name of his political movement, Bring People Together. He said in the sharply divided political atmosphere inside the Capitol, that is what needs to happen and hes the guy to do it.

It used to be the center ruled. You had moderates in both parties and they came up with a consensus, he said. Im a moderate who has the experience in Harrisburg and the best one who can do the job in 18 months. Some of the other guys are good but none of them have the experience I do. They need to learn about Harrisburg.

If you are a registered voter who lives in any of the following municipalities, you have the opportunity to vote for one of these candidates: All of Lebanon County; in Dauphin County, Conewago, Londonderry, Swatara and Lower Swatara townships and the boroughs of Highspire, Middletown, Paxtang, Royalton and Steelton; and in York County, Conewago, East Manchester, Newberry and Springettsbury townships and the boroughs of Goldsboro, Lewisberry, Manchester, Mount Wolf, and York Haven.

Jan Murphy may be reached at jmurphy@pennlive.com. Follow her on Twitter at @JanMurphy.

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The Pa. Senate 48th District race: Whos the best man for the job? - PennLive