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Dont expect any supply relief from Black Sea wheat, says an analyst.

Weve got another bumper crop of wheat coming out of Ukraine and Russia, said Mike Lee, owner of Green Square Agro Consulting.

He recently conducted a five-day, 2,500 kilometre tour of fields in the main wheat growing regions of Russia and Ukraine.

His conclusion is their crops are going to be a lot bigger than the U.S. Department of Agriculture is estimating.

The USDA is forecasting 67 million tonnes of Russian wheat, down from last years record 72 million tonne crop.

Lee thinks that number will be revised higher in tomorrows World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Russia could produce up to 70 million tonnes this year, which would be the second largest crop in the post-Soviet Union era.

He still has a hard time believing the country grew 72 million tonnes of wheat last year because when he toured the fields just before harvest, most of the wheat had toppled over and was lying on the ground.

This has been a cooler growing season, and the wheat isnt as tall as it was last year.

It has not fallen over. It has got plenty of rain, but its upright, its solid, he said.

This year the crop looks better, but I cant believe its going to achieve 72 million tonnes.

Last years crop quality was abysmal. It had poor protein levels and was full of mycotoxins. Lee expects quality to be normal this year.

The USDAs latest Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin backs up his forecast of a bumper crop of Russian wheat.

In Russia, widespread showers and thunderstorms sustained excellent yield prospects for flowering to filling winter wheat from the southern Central District into the Southern and North Caucasus Districts, stated the report.

The USDA is forecasting 25 million tonnes of production from Ukraine. Lee believes it will be closer to 27 million tonnes, which would again be the second largest crop since the demise of the Soviet Union.

In its weekly weather report, the USDA said production prospects are variable in Ukraine. Vegetative health is excellent in southern and eastern Ukraine, contrasting with poor health in the central part of the country because of drought.

The Black Sea harvest will start in about two weeks.

There is nothing, barring a tsunami or something really catastrophic, that will do any damage to the wheat crop now, said Lee.

That means Canada will have plenty of competition from Russia and Ukraine in export markets this year.

Both those regions are long overdue for a difficult harvest, but it doesnt look like its going to be this year for the wheat, said Lee.

He previously worked as an agronomy consultant in Ukraine and has been conducting five crop tours of the Black Sea region every growing season for the past three years.

Lee tweets pictures and videos and writes a report at the conclusion of each tour detailing his findings and providing yield forecasts for subscribers to his service, which can be found on his Agronomy-Ukraine website.

He has noticed in the last couple of years that the governments of both countries are significantly backing agriculture and are starting to promote sensible policies for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union.

In the past it was just random rubbish that came out of these places, said Lee.

Many farmers in the western world have a misguided view that farming in the Black Sea region is backward, but Lee said nothing could be further from the truth. It has already come a long way and with government support, the region will become an even more formidable competitor in export markets.

The state of farming is at a very high level and is only improving, he said.

Contact sean.pratt@producer.com

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Bumper wheat crops expected in Russia, Ukraine - The Western ... - Western Producer

4 mins ago Analysis By Paul Goble | 4 mins ago

In the course of a wide-ranging discussion in advance of the release of his new book on Russia today, Moscow economist Vladislav Inozemtsev provides perhaps the most compelling argument yet on why Vladimir Putin will do everything he can to ensure that Ukraine fails in its efforts to become a modern state and why the West must make sure it does.

Arguing that Russia at present is not threatened by disintegration and that, as a result, the Kremlin may not feel compelled to make major changes in its manner of rule, the commentator says that Russia may only begin to change if an attractive example of what such changes could bring were to appear (znak.com/2017-05-15/ekonomist_vladislav_inozemcev_o_tom_kogda_rossiya_smozhet_postroit_demokratiyu).

Only Ukraine, he says, could play that role and shake up Russia, but it could do so only if it were to be rapidly transformed into a developed Western country, become a member of the European Union by 2025, and thus become a new Jerusalem, showing the way to the future for former Soviet republics.

But so far, Mr. Inozemtsev continues, the Kremlin has been lucky in that in Kyiv one kleptocrat has replaced another in power, while talented young people flee and there is complete stagnation as far as reforms are concerned. And growing Ukrainian Russophobia, which Mr. Putin has sponsored by his actions, works to the Kremlin leaders advantage.

As a result, for Russians as Mr. Putin intends, Ukraine has become an example of how not to act and this is the most powerful factor which in our days strengthens the Russian regime, the commentator says, adding that in his view, all the members of the Kyiv cabinet of ministers should be awarded medals For services to the [Russian] fatherland of various degrees.

At a time when many in Western capitals seem to have grown tired of the Ukrainian crisis brought on by the Russian Anschluss of Crimea and the invasion of the Donbas and want to focus on Moscow alone, Mr. Inozemtsevs argument is critical: If the West really wants Russia to change in the ways it says it does, then the West must make sure Ukraine succeeds.

That wont be easy, but the Moscow commentator has performed a useful service by reminding everyone that what is at stake in Ukraine is not just Ukraine and its heroic people, but the fate of Russia and much else.

Paul Goble is a long-time specialist on ethnic and religious questions in Eurasia who has served in various capacities in the U.S. State Department, the Central Intelligence Agency and the International Broadcasting Bureau, as well as at the Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The article above is reprinted with permission from his blog called Window on Eurasia (http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/).

Excerpt from:
Why Putin can't allow Ukraine to succeed and why the West must make sure it does - The Ukrainian Weekly (press release) (subscription)

A spokeswoman for U.S. President Donald Trump says sanctions against Russia for its interference in Ukraine would remain in place until the crisis is resolved.

Spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders on June 8 said the United States "is committed to existing sanctions against Russia."

She added the administration will keep them in place "until Moscow fully honors its commitments to resolve the crisis in Ukraine."

"We believe that the existing executive-branch sanctions regime is the best tool for compelling Russia to fulfill its commitments," she added in an off-camera briefing with reporters.

The United States and other Western nations imposed sanctions on Moscow in 2014 for its illegal annexation of Ukraines Crimean Peninsula and its support for Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.

President Donald Trump has caused some concern among allies about his commitment to sanctions, praising Russian President Vladimir Putin and saying he wants to improve relations with Moscow.

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White House Says Russia Sanctions To Remain Until Ukraine Crisis Resolved - RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

euronews

Ukraine Says Prepared to Negotiate With Gazprom Outside Russia New York Times KIEV Ukrainian state energy firm Naftogaz is prepared to attend talks with Russian gas giant Gazprom provided negotiations are not held in Russia, Naftogaz said on Thursday. Gazprom and Naftogaz have been locked in a bitter legal dispute since 2014, ... Ukraine Transports More Russian GasNatural Gas World all 6 news articles »

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Ukraine Says Prepared to Negotiate With Gazprom Outside Russia - New York Times

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, speaks in Kiev, Ukraine, on Wednesday. He said he will hold a referendum on the issue of Nato membership. Photograph: Anthony Anex/EPA

Ukraines parliament has voted to make membership of Nato a strategic priority for the country, enshrining in law an ambition that Russia has called dangerous for European security.

Of 357 deputies present for Thursdays vote in Kiev, 276 backed a Bill to make deeper co-operation with Nato a core element of Ukraines foreign policy, with the aim of eventually joining the 29-member military alliance.

The vote took place during another surge in fighting in eastern Ukraine, where more than 10,000 people have been killed and 1.5 million displaced in a three-year war between government troops and Russian-backed separatists.

The authors of the Nato Bill argued that Russias aggression towards Ukraine, its annexation of [Crimea], placed before the Ukrainian state the urgent task of genuinely ensuring the national security of the country.

They said several of Ukraines neighbours had found Nato membership to be the most effective instrument for guaranteeing their safety and preserving their territorial integrity and sovereignty.

Surveys suggest the Kremlins violent reaction to Ukraines 2014 revolution has sharply boosted support for Nato in the country of 45 million people, although the prospect of membership remains far more popular in western regions than in areas closer to Russia.

Four years ago, only 16 per cent [of Ukrainians] favoured Ukraines entry into Nato. Now its 54 per cent, Ukrainian leader Petro Poroshenko said earlier this year.

As president, I am guided by the views of my people, and I will hold a referendum on the issue of Nato membership.

The alliance is increasing its co-operation with Ukraine but has made clear that membership is not likely to be offered in the foreseeable future.

Moscow is categorically opposed to the possibility of Ukraine joining Nato, which the Kremlin accuses of aggressive expansion right up to Russias borders.

In response to Thursdays vote in Kiev, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia believes Natos growth threatens our security and the balance of forces in the Eurasian region. Naturally, the Russian side will take all measures needed to rebalance the situation and ensure our own security.

When Ukraine renounced its neutral military status in December 2014, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said: The very idea of Ukraines efforts to join Nato are dangerous, not only for Ukrainian people, because there is no unity over that issue, it is dangerous for European security.

Tension between Russia and Nato shows no sign of abating: Moscow has denounced Montenegros recent accession to the alliance and its alleged agents are accused of being behind a failed coup in the tiny Balkan state last October.

In the Baltic states and Poland, meanwhile, multinational Nato battalions are now being deployed to allay fears of Kremlin aggression, and both Russia and Nato plan major military exercises in the coming months.

In Ukraines parliament, the pro-Russian Opposition Bloc party voted against the Nato Bill and called for the countrys neutrality to be restored.

As Opposition Bloc deputy Yuri Miroshnichenko called for more discussion of the issue, another deputy, Yuri Bereza reminded him of Ukraines bloody conflict: Were already having a discussion in the east, he said

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Ukraine targets Nato membership despite Russian warnings - Irish Times