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A Ukrainian Humvee mired in bezdorizhzhia mud before the current war.

Every fall, Ukraine gets wetterand its not yet cold enough for the rain to freeze into ice. Every spring, as the winter ice melts, Ukraine again gets wetterand its not yet warm enough to dry out.

The result is two seasons of mud. Mud thats so deep and sticky that it renders thousands of miles of unpaved roadsto say nothing of forests and fieldsimpassable for vehicles. The Ukrainians call these muddy seasons bezdorizhzhia. That means roadlessness.

Bezdorizhzhia works against both armies in Russias wider war on Ukraine, but its a bigger problem for whichever army is trying to go on the attack while its muddy. Poor [cross-country mobility] typically provides some military advantage to defending forces, the U.K. defense ministry explained.

Right now, that means the mud favors Russian forces, which mostly have begun shifting to a defensive posture in anticipation of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

The spring bezdorizhzhia tends to be worse than the fall bezdorizhzhia is. Spring is the nightmare season for fighting in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. noted. And this year, amid warmer weather across Europe, the spring bezdorizhzhia has persisted through late April. Prolonging the nightmare.

That might help to explain why Ukraine hasnt yet launched the main efforts we might associate with a counteroffensive.

Yes, there have been Ukrainian raids across the Dnipro River into Russian-held territory left of that wide river in southern Ukraine. And yes, Ukrainian officials claim their forces are beginning to push back against Russian assaults in the ruins of Bakhmut, in eastern Ukraines Donbas region.

But we havent yet observed a major Ukrainian armored assault anywhere along the 600-mile front that stretches from the mouth of the Dnipro in southern Russian east toward Zaporizhzhia then northward up through Donbas to the Russian border near Kharkiv. An assault that might begin with a complex and risky effort to breach Russian fortifications.

A Ukrainian BTS-4 recovery vehicle.

The mud is so bad that even the vehicles that are supposed to recover other vehicles that get stuck themselves are getting stuck. A video that circulated online on social media on Saturday depicts a Ukrainian BTS-4 armored recovery vehicle practically glued to a forest track somewhere in Ukraine.

A BTS-4 is an old T-54/55 tank chassis with a front-mounted dozer blade and a 12-ton hydraulic crane in place of its turret. The Ukrainian army began the current, wider war with around 20 BTS-4s, at least 10 of which went through an extensive overhaul at the Lviv vehicle plant back in 2021.

ARVs such as the BTS-4 are essential for armies that fight on the move in difficult conditions. They winch out and unstick stuck vehicles; tow away damaged and immobilized vehicles so they can get repaired; and even support engineers breaching enemy defenses.

Its not for no reason that the U.S. Army has 1,200 M-88 recovery vehicles to support 2,700 active M-1 tanks. Thats slightly more than two tanks per ARV.

The Ukrainian army, on the other hand, had only around three dozen BREM-1, BREM-2, BREM-M, BREM-64 and BTS-4 ARVs when Russia widened its war on Ukraine 14 months ago. Thats 36 or so ARVs for a pre-war tank force with nearly a thousand T-64s, T-72s and T-80s. One recovery vehicle for every 25 tanks.

Donations from foreign allies have helped to grow the Ukrainian ARV fleet, as has a local effort to rebuild captured Russian T-62 tanks into improvised recovery vehicles. Its possible the Ukrainians have around 50 more ARVs than they started the wider war with.

Thats still too few ARVs by American standards. Too little recovery capacity to unstick an army that, for now, is stuck in the mud of the twice-a-year bezdorizhzhia season.

Especially as the ARVs themselves also are getting stuck. Until the ground dries a bit more and vehicles can move without high risk of miringor at least are recoverableit seems unlikely Ukraine will launch a major armored assault.

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Ukraine Is Really Muddy Right Now. It's A Risky Time For A ... - Forbes

In todays attack on Pavlohrad, in the eastern Dnipropetrovsk region, seven missiles were fired at the city, Serhii Lysak, the regions top official, said. Some were intercepted but others hit an industrial facility, sparking a fire, and a residential neighbourhood where 19 apartment buildings, 25 homes, six schools and five shops were damaged, he said. Missiles also hit three other areas in the region, damaging residential buildings and a school, he said.

Video posted on social media showed secondary detonations amid a significant blaze at the site of the strike, which came amid overnight missile launches against a number of Ukrainian cities by Russian strategic bombers. Among the buildings damaged or destroyed were an industrial zone, 19 apartment buildings and 25 homes, according to Mykola Lukashuk, the head of the Dnipro region council.

The Ukrainian military reported that air defence crews had destroyed 15 out of 18 missiles launched by Russian forces in the early hours of Monday morning with air raids sirens and air defence batteries audible in Kyiv and across the country.

Ukrainian counterattacks have ousted Russian forces from some positions in the besieged eastern city of Bakhmut, but the situation remains difficult, a top Ukrainian general has said. The situation is quite difficult, said Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of ground forces. At the same time, in certain parts of the city, the enemy was counterattacked by our units and left some positions. Syrskyi made the remarks while visiting frontline troops on Sunday, the military said.

The head of the Wagner private militia renewed his appeal to Russias defence ministry to increase ammunition shipments to his fighters trying to seize the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. Yevgeny Prigozhin has frequently clashed with Moscows defence establishment over the conduct of Russias campaign in Ukraine and what he says is insufficient support being provided to his Wagner soldiers. In a video posted on his Telegram channel, Prigozhin said he needs at least 300 tonnes of artillery shells a day for the assault, Reuters reported.

One person was killed and three others were injured by Russian shelling in the Kherson region over the past 24 hours, the regions administration said.

The governor of Chernihiv, Viacheslav Chaus, has reported the death of a child in Novhorod-Siverskyi after a mid-afternoon strike on the region.

Russian media reported on Monday what looks like two separate overnight incidents of sabotage within the Russian Federation. Alexander Bogomaz, governor of Bryansk, said a freight train was derailed as a result of an explosive device blowing up on railway tracks in the region. Aleksandr Drozdenko, governor of Leningrad region, claimed that a power transmission line support was blown up there. He wrote that an explosive device was also found on a second power pylon, but that electricity supplies had not been disrupted. Authorities in Russia say they are investigating both incidents.

Since last summer Russia has built some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world for many decades in the areas it controls in Ukraine as well as in its own border regions, the UKs Ministry of Defence has written in its latest intelligence update on the conflict.

Vladimir Rogov, chair of the We Are Together with Russia organisation that operates within the occupied Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine, has posted to Telegram to claim that a man has been killed by his own improvised explosives in occupied Melitopol.

Polands ministry of foreign affairs has issued a statement condemning the former childrens ombudsman of Russia, Pavel Astakhov, for comments he made on Russian state TV that murdering ambassadors is within the framework of international law, with specific reference to Polands ambassador. Poland called on Russia to ensure the safety of all diplomats in accordance with the Vienna Convention.

In Washington, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy emphatically stressed his support for military aid to Ukraine on Monday, blistering Russias killing of the children and distancing himself from some in his party who oppose additional major US aid to stave off the Russian invasion. In Israel on his first trip abroad as speaker, McCarthy flatly rejected a suggestion at a news conference that he does not support sending military and financial aid to Ukraine and he amplified his positions on other issues back home, including his demand for debt limit negotiations with President Joe Biden.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy has spoken to New Zealands prime minister, Chris Hipkins. Ukraines president said the pair discussed further cooperation on defence and humanitarian issues and the need for further consolidation of the countries of the Pacific region in supporting Ukraine.

The head of Russias Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has warned that an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive could turn into a tragedy for Russia, and complained that his fighters lacked ammunition, in an interview with pro-Kremlin war correspondent Semyon Pegov. Prigozhin, whose group is spearheading Russias attack on the embattled city of Bakhmut, predicted a Ukrainian counterattack in mid-May and said Wagner had only 10-15% of the shells that we need.

Pope Francis has said that the Vatican is involved in a peace mission to try to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. I am willing to do everything that has to be done. There is a mission in course now but it is not yet public. When it is public, I will reveal it, Pope Francis told reporters during a flight home after a three-day visit to Hungary.

The Russian army replaced its highest ranking general in charge of logistics, after days of rumours about the sacking of Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev. In a statement, the Russian defence ministry said Alexei Kuzmenkov a former official from the National Guard had replaced Mizintsev as deputy defence minister of the Russian Federation, responsible for the logistical support of the Armed Forces. The statement did not say why Mizintsev was replaced after just seven months in the job.

Four people have been killed from an overnight Ukrainian strike on the Russian border village of Suzemka, the governor of Russias western Bryansk region said on Sunday. Two more civilians have been found and removed from the rubble. Unfortunately, both of them died, local governor Alexander Bogomaz said on Telegram.

With Reuters and AFP

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Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 432 of the invasion - The Guardian

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China could play a crucial role in ending the war in Ukraine - Financial Times

This is an edition of The Atlantic Daily, a newsletter that guides you through the biggest stories of the day, helps you discover new ideas, and recommends the best in culture. Sign up for it here.

The Atlantics June cover story is a dispatch from Ukraine, including an interview with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The Ukrainian leader met with our editor in chief Jeffrey Goldberg, staff writer Anne Applebaum, and Laurene Powell Jobs, chair of the magazines board of directors, and their conversations took place as Ukraine prepares to conduct what could be one of the most consequential military counteroffensives in modern history.

First, here are four new stories from The Atlantic:

A Fateful Spring

The democracies face a coming year of decision. In the next 12 to 18 months, we will know whether Americans have the collective will to resist yet another attempt to hand power to a would-be autocrat; as astonishing as it seems, one of the likely presidential candidates in the 2024 election is a man who incited a violent attack against the government and the Constitution of the United States. We will also know whether the free world (and yes, its long past time to start using that expression again) has the will to resist the onslaught of Russian butchery in Europe.

These two battles are inextricably linked. If America stumbles even deeper into authoritarian darkness than it already has, Ukraine is lost. If Ukraine is lost, Europe and the West face an existential threat not only to our physical security but also to our democratic civilization.

As Jeffrey Goldberg notes in his editors introduction to the June issue, The Atlantic went to Ukraine because the war there is about much more than Ukraine; it is about the very subjects that animate this magazine: democracy, freedom, justice, humanism. In Kherson, he and Anne were interviewing Ukrainian soldiers when the Russians bombed a nearby supermarket parking lot, the kind of indiscriminate attack that reinforces the stakes for Ukraine and the world. The Russian missile, Jeff writes, was meant to murder and terrorize; mission accomplished.

And this is what the Russian war on Ukraine has become: a campaign of revenge by an infuriated despot who is determined to show that democracy will bow to dictatorship, even if he has to bomb every home and kill every Ukrainian.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, of course, is trapped in a vortex of his own grandiose miscalculations and strategic ineptitude. He expected Ukraine to collapse within hours of his first attacks more than a year ago. As the Ukrainian defense minister told Anne and Jeff, so did the U.S. and NATO, who expected a war between a big Soviet army fighting a small Soviet army and thought that the big Soviet army would win.

I made the same miscalculation in my early analyses of the conflict. As we now know, however, the Russian military had for years managed to hide its shocking incompetence and poor logistics from the worldand especially from Putin, whose small circle of sycophants was too terrified to tell him the truth. Lost in a fantasy, he expected not only that Kyiv would fall but also that Russian soldiers would be greeted as liberators. The Russian campaign, as Anne and Jeff write, was to annihilate both Ukraine and the idea of Ukraine, but now, with tens of thousands of Russian casualties and the Russian nation in shock at constant defeats, Putin has apparently decided that he must destroy what he once hoped to possess whole. He will rule over whatever is leftand then continue his attempted march westward.

Although our cover story bears witness to these crushing tragedies on the ground in Ukraine, it is not a report of relentless pessimism. Indeed, Ukraine at war has forged an even stronger identity as a civic and democratic nation. Ukrainians are resolute that there is no alternative to victory. (Ukrainian citizens, as our writers saw, routinely use expressions when parting such as See you after the victory.) Anne and Jeff also note how much has changed since those first chaotic months of the war. When they went to speak with Zelensky in the spring of 2022, Kyiv was a city in darkness, its leadership in bunkers, its businesses mostly closed. When they returned last month, they found that the lights were on, the restaurants were open, and the trains ran on predictable schedules. A coffee shop in the station was serving oat-milk lattes. Even Bucha, where the Russians conducted a ghastly campaign of civilian executions, is rebuilding.

Good news, to be sure, but without a powerful counteroffensive and eventual victory, there can be no peace in Ukraine, and no stability in Europe or the world. What does victory mean? Obviously, the survival of an independent Ukraine is the immediate goal, but a lasting peace has to mean more than living through successive Russian conquests and partitions. The Ukrainians, who have lost so much already, are unlikely to accept such an unjust truce, even if the Russians had any interest in offering one. If the Ukrainians lose sovereign territory, if they are not safe from Russian attack, and if there is no reckoning with Russian war criminals, then any Ukrainian victory is just a temporary respite from another round of Russian aggression.

But even more important, any outcome short of a Ukrainian victory would endanger the rest of the world. There is a reason, as Anne and Jeff write, that so many nations, movements, and individuals are waiting to see what happens:

If a Ukraine that believes in the rule of law and human rights can achieve victory against a much larger, much more autocratic society, and if it can do so while preserving its own freedoms, then similarly open societies and movements around the world can hope for success too. After the Russian invasion, the Venezuelan opposition movement hung a Ukrainian flag on the front of its countrys embassy hall in Washington. The Taiwanese Parliament gave a rapturous welcome to Ukrainian activists last year. Not everyone in the world cares about this war, but for anyone trying to defeat a dictator, it has profound significance.

This is why the world is waiting for the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Read the whole story, which is accompanied by powerful images captured by the renowned photojournalist Paolo Pellegrin. (The cover art is by Bono. Yes, that Bono.) Americans can find it easy to forget the war raging across the sea, but Ukraine is approaching a battle for its ultimate fateas are all of us living in the free world.

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Evening Read

Paris Hilton Has a Lesson for Everybody

By Annie Lowrey

The Paris Hilton with whom I am familiar is not the real Paris Hilton, Paris Hilton tells me. The Paris Hilton she describes in her best-selling new memoir is. I just put it all out there. It was like writing in a diary, speaking about things that Ive never said out loud to anyone in my life, not my closest friends or family members. So I would say it was definitely me, she tells me over Zoom. Yeah, its me.

I do not believe this claim for a minute, nor do I believe that she believes it either. Paris: The Memoir is a glimpse into the lifestyles of the rich and famous; a dishy gift for her devoted fans, the Little Hiltons; and a horrifying recounting of a life filled with exploitation and abuse. It is also a manual on how to construct a self for public consumption, a skill at which Hilton is an immortal genius and a practice she has helped mainstream into American culture, curving it into a ouroboros of ceaseless posting, commenting, buying, selling.

Read the full article.

More From The Atlantic

Culture Break

Watch. Along Came Polly (streaming on Peacock), which features a brilliant comedic performance from Philip Seymour Hoffman.

Listen. Funny How Time Slips Away, a song that captures the artistry of Willie Nelson.

Play our daily crossword.

Katherine Hu contributed to this newsletter.

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The World Awaits Ukraine's Counteroffensive - The Atlantic

Ukraine is finalizing preparations for its anticipated spring counteroffensive against Russia, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says his country will fight with or without Western military jets.

Ukraines battlefield progress depends heavily on military supplies from the West. Military experts say, without advanced jets from Kyivs NATO allies, the counteroffensive will likely consist of costly battles of attrition.

Zelenskyy: Spring Counteroffensive Coming, With or Without Western Warplanes

In recent days, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg was among Western leaders who held meetings with Ukraine's leadership and military command. He emphasized that through the Contact Group led by the United States, NATO allies and partners have provided more than 98% of the combat vehicles promised to Ukraine, including over 1,550 armored vehicles, 230 tanks and vast amounts of ammunition.

In total, we have trained and equipped more than nine new Ukrainian armored brigades. This will put Ukraine in a strong position to continue to retake occupied territory, said the NATO secretary general last week during a press conference.

Ukraine says it needs more. Ukraines top military commander, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, recently held a working meeting with U.S. Army General Christopher Cavoli. According to VOA sources, the generals conferred on Ukraine's military abilities and agreed on the need for a thorough assessment of Ukraines readiness for a counteroffensive.

Posting on Facebook after the meeting, Zaluzhnyi wrote that participants had considered in greater depth the operational situation along the entire front line the likely scenarios, threats and prerequisites for our future actions.

Zaluzhnyi added, We focused on the importance of timely supply of sufficient ammunition and materiel. I emphasized the need to provide Ukraine with a wide range of armament and air defense systems, which will significantly help us to solve the problematic issues in our resistance to Russian aggression.

VOA sources in Ukraines military command confirmed that Ukraine has largely spent its supply of aged Soviet military hardware and munitions. Ukraines military has been fighting on the eastern and southern fronts in recent months, hoping to exhaust Russian forces without giving up territory.

Ukraine is having success in that regard, according to U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby.

"Russia has exhausted its military stockpiles and its armed forces and since December alone, Kirby told reporters Monday. [J]ust since December, we estimate that Russia has suffered more than 100,000 casualties, including over 20,000 killed in action, nearly half of whom were Wagner [Group] soldiers."

At the same time, Ukraine is transitioning to Western weapons systems, making the country even more reliant on Western military support.

As it preps for a spring counteroffensive, one of Ukraines critical unmet needs is fighter jets, according to Gustav Gressel, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

In a recent article, Gressel wrote that [e]xtensive fortifications in the Russian rear may slow Ukrainian advances long enough to allow Russian aircraft to strike the forces clearing obstacles. ...To screen the ground forces from such attacks, the Ukrainian air force will have to come out, at least to disrupt Russian attacks.

Addressing Ukraines need for jets, Gressel wrote: The US should learn from last years delay over tank deliveries and approve their release as soon as possible.

The end of the war depends on Ukraine, NATOs assistant secretary-general for public diplomacy, Ambassador Baiba Brae, recently told VOA. [T]he most important part is ensuring that Ukraine is supported in maximum ways. If it wants to continue fighting, it has the capability to continue fighting.

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Acquisition of Advanced Jets Could Be Key to Ukraine's Spring Counteroffensive - Voice of America - VOA News