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When the World Bank released its latest damage assessment of war-torn Ukraine this week, it announced that the price of recovery and rebuilding had grown to $411 billion. What it didnt say, though, was who would pay for it.

To Ukraine, the answer seems obvious: Confiscate the roughly $300 billion in Russian Central Bank assets that Western banks have frozen since the invasion last year. As the war grinds on, the idea has gained supporters.

The European Union has already declared its desire to use the Kremlins bankroll to pay for reconstruction in Ukraine. At the urging of a handful of Eastern European and Baltic nations, the bloc convened a working group last month to assess the possibility of grabbing that money as well as frozen assets owned by private individuals who have run afoul of European sanctions.

In principle, it is clear-cut: Russia must pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine, said Swedens prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, who holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union.

At the same time, he noted, turning that principle into practice is fraught. This must be done in accordance with E.U. and international law, and there is currently no direct model for this, Mr. Kristersson said.

The working group, which has a two-year mandate, is scheduled to meet in Brussels next week.

Other top officials, in the United States and elsewhere, have sounded more skeptical. After visiting Kyiv last month, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen reiterated her warnings of formidable legal obstacles. The Swiss government declared that confiscating private Russian assets from banks would violate Switzerlands Constitution as well as international agreements.

The legal debate is just one skein in the tangle of moral, political and economic concerns that the potential seizure of Russias reserves poses.

Ms. Yellen and others have argued that seizing Russias accounts could undermine faith in the dollar, the most widely used currency for the worlds trade and transactions. Foreign nations might be more reluctant to keep money in U.S. banks or make investments, fearing that it could be seized. At the same time, experts worry that such a move could put American and European assets held in other countries at higher risk of expropriation in the future if there is an international dispute.

There are also concerns that seizure would erode faith in the system of international laws and agreements that Western governments have championed most vocally.

But Russias pummeling of Ukraines infrastructure, charges of war crimes against President Vladimir V. Putin, and the difficulty of squeezing Russia economically when demand for its energy and other exports remains high have helped the idea gain ground.

Also, there is the uncomfortable realization that the cost of rebuilding Ukraine once the war is over will far outstrip the amount that even wealthy allies like the United States and Europe may be willing to give.

The United States, the European Union, Britain and other allies have funneled billions of dollars into Ukraines war effort, as well as tanks, missiles, ammunition, drones and other military equipment. And this week the International Monetary Fund approved its biggest loan yet $15.6 billion just to keep Ukraines battered economy afloat.

But public support for continued funding is not inexhaustible.

If its difficult to get funding now for maintaining the infrastructure or housing, why is it going to be easier to get funding later? asked Tymofiy Mylovanov, the president of the Kyiv School of Economics and a former government minister.

Its hard enough for Ukraine to get money and equipment while we are being killed, Mr. Mylovanov said. Once were not being killed, well have difficulty getting anything.

Laurence Tribe, a university professor of constitutional law at Harvard, has argued that a 1977 law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, gives the U.S. president the authority to confiscate sovereign Russian assets and repurpose them for Ukraine.

The U.S. authorities previously seized Iraqi and Iranian assets and redirected them to compensate victims of violence, settle lawsuits or provide financial assistance.

Mr. Tribe concedes that calculations about the ripple effect on the dollar or invested assets will ultimately matter more to policymakers than legal ones. But he finds those broader political concerns unpersuasive.

Its crazy to argue that its more destabilizing to have assets seized than to have wars of aggression, Mr. Tribe said in an interview on Friday. The survival of the global economy is far more threatened by the way Russia behaved than by any financial retaliation.

And, he added, taking billions of dollars is much more meaningful either as a deterrent or punishment than bringing war crime charges.

Other prominent voices in the United States have endorsed the notion. Lawrence H. Summers, a former Treasury secretary; Robert B. Zoellick, a former president of the World Bank and U.S. trade representative; and Philip D. Zelikow, a historian at University of Virginia and a former State Department counselor, made their case this week in an opinion piece in The Washington Post.

Transferring frozen Russian reserves would be morally right, strategically wise and politically expedient, they wrote.

A few countries in addition to Ukraine have taken steps to pry loose foreign assets owned by Russian individuals and entities and use the money for reconstruction. In December, the Canadian government began the process of seizing $26 million owned by the Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich after passing a law easing the forfeiture of private Russian assets from individuals who are under sanctions.

A federal judge in Manhattan gave the go-ahead last month to confiscate $5.4 million from another Russian businessman facing sanctions, Konstantin Malofeev. And Estonia is also seeking to pass legislation that would give the government there similar powers.

But Mr. Tribe, Mr. Summers and others argue that the main focus should be not on seizing private assets, which would be legally much more complicated and time-consuming, but on the hundreds of billions owned by Russias central bank.

Wherever the money comes from, the bill keeps growing. Over the past year, Ukraines economy has shrunk by a third. The war has pushed more than seven million people into poverty, the World Bank reported, and reversed 15 years of development progress.

Read more:
Support Grows to Have Russia Pay for Ukraines Rebuilding - The New York Times

Alexander Novak, Russia's deputy prime minister, said Russian oil sales to India jumped 22-fold in 2022 amidsanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

Last year, as European countriessought to end their dependence on Russian energy supplies and imposed sanctions on Moscow, Russia has shifted its oil exports to India and China.

Novak said that Russia's energy exports were "redirected" to the "markets of friendly countries,"adding that energy revenues accounted for 42% of Russia's federal budget in 2022.

He said Russia'senergy industry was sustainable despite the challenges faced by Western sanctions.

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India had previouslyexported large quantities of its oil from Africa and rarely bought Russian oil due to high transport costs.

But last year refiners in India became Moscow's key oil clients as Russia reportedly offereddiscounted rates. According to the Indian newspaperThe Economic Times,India received 1.72 million bpd of Russian oiljust last month.

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Over the last year, observers have defined India's position on Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a muted one.New Delhi has refused to condemn the war or support the Western sanctions.

At the G20 meet hosted by India, the US repeatedly called for Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine. ButIndia refused to condemn the Russian invasion and has called for talks to de-escalate the conflict.

"We should not allow issues that we cannot resolve together to come in the way of those we can," said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi while addressing the gathering.

Modi has previously said on India's ties with Russia that "the world also knows that it is an unbreakable friendship."

On the eve of the first anniversary of Russia's war,the UN General Assembly (UNGA) sought to pass a resolution demanding the end of the war.

India was among the 32 countries that abstained from voting.

ns/fb (AFP, Reuters)

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Russia says oil sales to India surged amid war in Ukraine - DW (English)

TALLINN, Estonia (AP) Advertisements promise cash bonuses and enticing benefits. Recruiters are making cold calls to eligible men. Enlistment offices are working with universities and social service agencies to lure students and the unemployed.

A new campaign is underway this spring across Russia, seeking recruits to replenish its troops for the war in Ukraine.

As fighting grinds on in Ukrainian battlegrounds like Bakhmut and both sides prepare for counteroffensives that could cost even more lives, the Kremlins war machine badly needs new recruits.

A mobilization in September of 300,000 reservists billed as a partial call-up sent panic throughout the country, since most men under 65 are formally part of the reserve. Tens of thousands fled Russia rather than report to recruiting stations.

The Kremlin denies that another call-up is planned for what it calls its special military operation in Ukraine, now more than a year old.

But amid widespread uncertainty of whether such a move will eventually happen, the government is enticing men to volunteer, either at makeshift recruiting centers popping up in various regions, or with phone calls from enlistment officials. That way, it can avoid declaring a formal second mobilization wave after the first one proved so unpopular, according to a recent report by the U.S.-based think tank Institute of the Study of War.

One Muscovite told The Associated Press that his employer, a state-funded organization, gathered up the military registration cards of all male employees of fighting age and said it would get them deferments. But he said the move still sent a wave of fear through him.

It makes you nervous and scared no one wants to all of a sudden end up in a war with a rifle in their hands, said the resident, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he feared reprisal. The special operation is somewhat dragging on, so any surprises from the Russian authorities can be expected.

Its been more than a week since he handed in his card, he said, and exemptions usually get resolved in a day or two, heightening his anxiety.

Russian media report that men across the country are receiving summonses from enlistment offices. In most of those cases, men were simply asked to update their records; in others, they were ordered to take part in military training.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said last week that serving summonses to update records in enlistment offices is usual practice and a continued undertaking.

Other unconfirmed media reports say authorities have told regional governments to recruit a certain number of volunteers. Some officials announced setting up recruitment centers with the goal of getting men to sign contracts that enable them to be sent into combat as professional soldiers.

Ads have appeared on government websites and on the social media accounts of state institutions and organizations, including libraries and high schools.

One of them, posted by a municipal administration in the western Yaroslavl region, promised a one-time bonus of about $3,800 to sign up, and if sent to Ukraine, a monthly salary of up to $2,500, plus about $100 a day for involvement in active offensive operations, and $650 for each kilometer of advancement within assault teams.

The ad said the soldier would also get tax and loan repayment breaks, preferential university admission status for his children, generous compensation for his family if he is wounded or killed in action, and the status of a war veteran, which carries even more perks.

In the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, officials asked universities, colleges and vocational schools to advertise for recruits on their websites, said Sergei Chernyshov, founder of a private vocational school there.

Chernyshov posted the ad on his social media account so that everyone knows what our city hall is up to, but he told the AP that he doesnt plan to put it on the school website. Its weird to target vocational school students, he said.

Other efforts include enlistment officials meeting with college students and unemployed men, or phoning men to volunteer.

A Muscovite who spoke on condition of anonymity for his own safety said that he received such a call and was surprised at how polite it was: After my No, there were no threats or (attempts to) convince me - (just) Thanks, goodbye.

There have only been isolated cases of enlistment officials really pressuring men to sign up, said Grigory Sverdlin, founder of a group called Go by the Forest that helps men avoid mobilization.

The group gets up to 100 messages a day from men seeking advice on dealing with summonses or enlistment officials, he said, compared with dozens per day in recent months. In most cases, the officials wanted to update their records with addresses and phone numbers, and they might try to recruit men during that process.

But Sverdlin said some cases stand out.

In the Vologda region, about 400 kilometers (250 miles) north of Moscow, the group received messages saying that almost everyone going to the enlistment office after receiving a summons is forced to sign a paper barring them from leaving the region, he said.

Lawyer Alexei Tabalov, who runs the Conscripts School legal aid group, believes theres nothing unusual in authorities handing out summonses now. Some of the notices are traditionally served before Russias spring conscription draft, scheduled to begin April 1 for those eligible for mandatory service.

All Russian men from age 18 to 27 must serve one year in the military, but a large share avoid the draft for health reasons or get student deferments. The share of men who avoid the draft is particularly big in Moscow and other major cities, and many simply evade enlistment officials bearing conscription summonses.

Tabalov said that men have reported going to enlistment offices to update their records but have officials there who beat around the bush and promote the idea of signing the contract, talk about how one should love their motherland and defend it.

He doubted anything could make volunteering attractive after 13 months of a war that has killed and wounded tens of thousands.

People already understand what it means to sign a contract, he said. Those who got burned once are unlikely to fall into the same trap.

Tabalov said that his group continues to get messages from soldiers who want to terminate their contracts, but that isnt legally possible until President Vladimir Putin ends the partial mobilization, which began in September, with a new decree.

Getting out of the war automatically means criminal prosecution, Tabalov said, adding there have been a flurry of criminal cases since December, with prosecutions of soldiers who desert or go AWOL.

The news outlet Mediazona counted 247 verdicts in 536 criminal cases on these and similar charges, adding that over a third of those convicted got suspended sentences, which allows authorities to send them back to the front line.

The current recruitment campaign is similar to one enacted last summer, before the September call-up, said Kateryna Stepanenko, a Russia analyst with the Institute of the Study of War.

Back then, authorities also used financial incentives, and various volunteer battalions were formed, but the effort clearly wasnt successful, because Putin eventually turned to the partial mobilization.

Whether this one will succeed or not is unclear.

Theyve already recruited a significant portion of people that were financially incentivized last summer. And they struggled to do so last year, Stepanenko said.

The current recruitment effort shows the militarys awareness of manpower needs in Ukraine.

What the mobilization campaign of 300,000 servicemen told us is that its not enough to form a sufficient strike group for Russia to push forward with its offensive operations, she said.

___

Associated Press writer Yuras Karmanau contributed to this report.

___

Follow APs coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

Originally posted here:
New Russian campaign tries to entice men to fight in Ukraine - The Associated Press

Listen to this story:

Lviv and Kyiv, Ukraine Boghdan Sulanov, the fast-talking vocalist of a heavy metal rock band called YAD, traverses a crammed backstage area. He edges past a guitarist who has just finished a high-octane, adrenaline-fuelled set, leaving him drenched in sweat, and reaches a small table piled with audio equipment, tea and biscuits. From underneath the table, he fishes out a rucksack with the clothes he will soon wear onstage.

The concert hall, an intimate venue in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, is covered in music posters and on a night in early February, it is packed with several hundred rock enthusiasts eagerly awaiting the next performance. The atmosphere is electric, and Sulanov is excited.

Young people didnt appreciate music in the same way before the war, says the 33-year-old, referring to Russias full-scale invasion of his native Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

Our band always sing about our problems, and right now, it is that we want to survive, says Sulanov, as he takes in the frenetic backstage atmosphere.

On stage, Bohdana Nykyforchyn, a 35-year-old singer with shoulder-length dyed red hair, screams into a microphone while her bandmate pounds away on a drum set.

Nykyforchyn transports the room through a range of emotions, alternating between soft melodic tones and more aggressive, fast-paced vocals. At one point, her voice cracks, and she looks like she might cry. After her set, she explains why. I am eight months pregnant, and my dream was to climb this stage, she says. When the second song came on, I felt all my emotions bubble up. My hormones are everywhere!

The members of YAD run out onto the stage, and the audience, ranging from fresh-faced teenagers to grey-haired middle-aged rockers, erupts in excitement. The people standing in the front row scream out the words to their songs, including a young boy who looks to be about 10 years old. The guitarist briefly stops strutting around the stage when he spots the boy and gives him a heartfelt thumbs-up.

Marichka Chichkova, the event organiser who is helping out at the bar, admits that although heavy metal is not her preferred music genre, she is happy to see all the people enjoying themselves. She looks up at the stage and remarks, Its also a release for musicians; this is very important, too.

Go here to read the rest:
Dance like there is no tomorrow: Ukraines wartime music scene - Al Jazeera English

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China, Japan and the Ukraine war - Financial Times