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HELSINKI As the threat of a new Russian invasion of Ukraine grew, the European head of state with the longest and deepest experience dealing with Vladimir V. Putin fielded calls and doled out advice to President Emmanuel Macron of France and other world leaders desperate for insight into his difficult neighbor to the east.

What do you think about this about this, what about this, or this? Thats where I try to be helpful, said Sauli Niinisto, the president of Finland, as the harsh light gleaming off the snow and frozen bay poured into the presidential residence. They know that I know Putin, he added. And because it goes the other way around Putin sometimes says, Well, why dont you tell your Western friends that and that and that?

Mr. Niinisto, 73, said his role was not merely that of a Nordic runner, shuttling messages between East and West, but of borderland interpreter, explaining to both sides the thinking of the other. The departure from politics of Angela Merkel, who for years as Germanys chancellor led Europes negotiations with Mr. Putin, has made Mr. Niinistos role, while smaller, vital, especially as the drumbeat of war grows louder.

But Mr. Niinisto is not optimistic. Before and after his last long conversation with Mr. Putin last month, he said, he had noticed a change in the Russian. His state of mind, the deciding, decisiveness that is clearly different, Mr. Niinisto said. He believed Mr. Putin felt he had to seize on the momentum he has now.

He said it was hard to imagine that things would return to the way they had been before. The opposing sides disputed the Minsk agreement that the Russians insisted be honored. The remaining options boiled down to Russia pressuring Europe and extracting demands from the United States for the foreseeable future, or, he said, warfare.

Such plain speaking has made Mr. Niinisto, in the fifth year of his second six-year term, wildly popular in Finland. He is compared by some to Urho Kekkonen, who took power in 1956 and ruled Finland for 25 years, during the so-called Finlandization period of the Cold War.

We love him, said Juha Eriksson, as he sold Reindeer pelts, canned bear meat and smoked salmon sandwiches in a market next to ice shards in the bay. My generation had Kekkonen and he was the father of the country. And he is a little something like that. Its a pity that he must leave office soon.

Mr. Niinisto plays down his near 90 percent approval rating as consistent with his predecessors and dismisses the hyperbolic talk of his being some kind of Putin whisperer. Its an exaggeration that I somehow know more about Putin or his thinking, he said. He is clearly cautious about upsetting a relationship he has nurtured over a decade, including many meetings, countless phone calls and a game of ice hockey. Asked who was better, he responded diplomatically, Ive been playing all my life.

But he did point to some concrete benefits. After gaining support from Ms. Merkel, he said that he asked in 2020 if Mr. Putin would let Aleksei A. Navalny, the Russian opposition leader who accuses Russian operatives of poisoning him, to be flown to Germany for medical treatment. Mr. Navalnys office later thanked Mr. Niinisto.

He is a good person to call when you want to understand what is happening in the northeastern corner of Europe and especially if you want to understand the thinking of President Putin, said Alexander Stubb, a former prime minister and foreign minister, who has accompanied Mr. Niinisto in meetings with Mr. Putin. Hes a mastermind in power politics and in finding the right balance.

That Mr. Stubb was so effusive about the president itself said something about Mr. Niinistos overwhelming popularity, and political dominance, in Finland, as political tensions between the two are widely talked about here.

Mr. Niinisto derives his power from a critical national security meeting that he runs and from the Constitution, which states that foreign policy is led by the president of the republic in cooperation with the government.

Feb. 15, 2022, 5:59 p.m. ET

Its the president pause who is leading in cooperation, Mr. Niinisto explained, making it clear who came first.

Finnish officials say that Mr. Niinisto sheds his diplomatic modesty in private, and is known for his long political memory, cutting style and mission creep. I have been sometimes criticized for remembering too much my old history as minister of finance, he said with a smile.

Domestic policy is the territory of the prime minister, currently Sanna Marin, a 36-year-old former cashier and climate change campaigner who raised Mr. Niinistos ire in January, according to Finnish political observers, when she told Reuters that it was very unlikely that Finland would apply for NATO membership while she was in office.

I still say only that I see no major damages, he said, with visible restraint. Asked if her statement was constructive, he said I just repeat, no damages.

The NATO option mattered in Finland as a strategic tool to manage Mr. Putin. In a country with an abundance of sayings about the incorrigible nature of Russians (A Russian is a Russian even if you fry them in butter) Mr. Niinisto recalled one about Russian soldiers, saying, The Cossack takes everything, which is loose, which is not fixed.

The Kremlins position. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who has increasingly portrayed NATOs eastward expansion as an existential threat to his country, said that Moscows growing military presence on the Ukrainian border was a response to Ukraines deepening partnership with the alliance.

Despite recalling that Mr. Putin once said the friendly Finnish neighbor would become the enemy soldier if it joined NATO, Mr. Niinisto, who boasts about Finlands impressive artillery, frequently asserts Finlands right to become a member of the alliance. I have said it to Putin too, very clearly, he said.

Mr. Niinisto has also spoken directly to other leaders he suggested were threats to democracy. In a memorable joint news conference at the White House in 2019, he looked squarely at President Donald J. Trump and said, You have a great democracy. Keep it going on.

He doesnt respect institutions, Mr. Niinisto said of Mr. Trump in the interview, whether it was the European Union or NATO. And the Finn considered the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol building a worrying sign for American democracy.

But in dealing with Mr. Putin, Mr. Niinisto tried to give Mr. Trump some pointers before a summit in 2018 in Helsinki, actually behind that wall, he said pointing across the room. Before a solicitous public performance that was widely considered a disaster for Mr. Trump, Mr. Niinisto told Mr. Trump that Mr. Putin respects the one who is fighting back.

Mr. Niinisto has said he told Mr. Biden something similar ahead of Mr. Bidens call with Mr. Putin over Ukraine last month.

Besides the difficulty of dealing with Mr. Putin, Mr. Biden and Mr. Niinisto share another, and tragic, history. In 1995, Mr. Niinistos first wife died in a car accident, leaving him to raise his two young sons.

I know his history, Mr. Niinisto said quietly, adding that he might bring it up to the American president, who also lost his wife in a car crash as a young politician, someday maybe if I had the possibility of having a longer sit with him.

Mr. Niinisto also picked up the pieces. In 2009, then the speaker of Parliament, he married Jenni Haukio, then a 31-year-old director of communications for the National Coalition Party and now a poet. They have a 4-year-old son, and their dogs have become beloved national mascots.

Before the couple met, he was engaged to Tanja Karpela, a former Miss Finland who was a member of Parliament in an opposition party. They broke up in 2004, and Ms. Karpela now trains scent detection dogs that track Siberian flying squirrels.

The year of their breakup coincided with the devastating tsunami in Thailand, where he was vacationing with his sons and was nearly swept away. He survived by clinging high up on an electric pole for more than an hour. The traumatic event still seemed to shake the staid president, who lost a hundred countrymen that day. People who were sitting beside you at breakfast, he said.

That was a natural disaster. Now he hoped his relationship with Mr. Putin, and the small moves it might create, would help his partners avoid a man-made one in Ukraine.

Dangerous times, he said.

More:
Finland's President Knows Putin Well. And He Fears for Ukraine. - The New York Times

Some diplomats and experts speculated that the White House had little appetite for a Senate confirmation hearing that could devolve into a debate about Nord Stream 2, a natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany that members of both parties have criticized Mr. Biden for not opposing more vigorously. Republicans might also use a confirmation hearing to dredge up the past business activities in Ukraine of Mr. Bidens son, Hunter, although one Senate Republican official said he was aware of no plans to do so.

Also unclear is why Ukraine might not have immediately signed off on Ms. Brink, a Foreign Service officer for more than two decades who has been posted in two other former Soviet republics, Uzbekistan and Georgia.

The Kremlins position. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who has increasingly portrayed NATOs eastward expansion as an existential threat to his country, said that Moscows growing military presence on the Ukrainian border was a response to Ukraines deepening partnership with the alliance.

Mr. Zelenskys office has consolidated much of its foreign policy activity with his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, who speaks regularly to Mr. Bidens national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, in what has become the center of gravity of the U.S.-Ukrainian relationship. It is possible the Ukrainians prefer to keep it that way.

Ukrainian officials in recent years have also seen American ambassadors as patronizing scolds who continually issue statements and call meetings to reprimand Ukrainian elites over insider dealing and good governance failures.

And then there is the memory of the Trump years, and the dismissal of Ms. Yovanovitch. In the events leading to his impeachment, Mr. Trump, hoping to damage Mr. Biden before the 2020 election, leveraged U.S. military aid to pressure Mr. Zelensky to investigate Hunter Bidens work for a Ukrainian energy company, according to testimony during the impeachment hearings.

In April 2019, Mr. Trumps personal lawyer Rudolph W. Giuliani persuaded the president to remove Ms. Yovanovitch from the position after she opposed Mr. Giulianis efforts there to dig up dirt on Hunter Biden. (No evidence of wrongdoing was found on the part of Hunter Biden or his father. Mr. Trump denied doing anything improper and was acquitted in his Senate trial.)

In a reminder that the position can get tangled in Ukraines contentious domestic politics, some Ukrainian officials encouraged Mr. Giulianis opposition to Ms. Yovanovitch because her focus on anti-corruption initiatives threatened their interests. The countrys top prosecutor at the time, Yuriy Lutsenko, referred to Ms. Yovanovitch in a text message to an associate as an idiot, according to evidence released during the impeachment proceedings.

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Puzzle in Ukraine Crisis: Wheres the U.S. Ambassador? - The New York Times

Melinda Simmons, the British ambassador to Ukraine, has been winning plaudits for her decision to stay in post in Kyiv, working with a much-reduced staff to help UK citizens out of the country and to manage the steady flow of British dignitaries still flying to the country to show their solidarity.

Given the clarity, frequency and urgency of the British intelligence warnings of an imminent Russian invasion, including the possibility of airstrikes, it is surprising that she has until now insisted she remain in situ alongside a core team.

Her decision to stay put, along with most EU embassies, will be popular with Ukraines president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. He is deeply unhappy that some western embassies including the US, Canada and Australia decided to move from Kyiv to Lviv or other cities in the west of the country. At a joint briefing on Monday Zelinskiy said he was determined to prevent an exodus of his political and business class, and questioned their logic. There is no western Ukraine, he said. There is Ukraine; it is integral. Because if, God forbid, something happens, it will be everywhere.

Simmonss decision to stay may also be an implicit admission that the Foreign Office did not cover itself in glory in its handling of the fall of Kabul.

It might be thought that the Conservative press would treat her decision to stay put as a sign of the sangfroid on which the British diplomatic class like to pride themselves. But Douglas Murray, associate editor of the Spectator, took umbrage at her admissions that she sometimes needed to take walks to relieve herself of stress. When exactly did Simmons-like behaviour become our national character? When did me-time and self-esteem replace stoicism? People used to talk of drawing on reserves in a crisis, not least because it gave confidence to our friends and allies as well as to ourselves. Clearly that isnt the case now.

Those who know her say she is regarded as a highly focussed humanitarian, and part of a new generation of British female ambassadors.

Born in the East End of London to Jewish parents, her family is from Poland on her fathers side, but her mothers side is both Lithuanian and Ukrainian. Fluent in German and French, she came into the diplomatic network in 2003 via the Department for International Development (DfID) relatively late 10 years after university, and after spending time in advertising and marketing, which she quit in disillusionment, taking a 50% pay cut to work for a peace-building NGO. Her husband was a journalist specialising in Africa. Her DfID career had a heavy Africa focus and she specialised in conflict resolution and prevention. Her move to the Foreign Office in 2013, and to the National Security Secretariat, meant a drift from soft to harder power. In 2018 she started language training in preparation for taking up her post in Kyiv in 2019. For the de-stressing reviled by the Spectator she tries baking and boxing.

Inside the Foreign Office she has tried to be a trailblazer, but admits it can be hard, once saying: I think its really difficult to build the courage to speak up for yourself. Often for women, thats just a step too far out of your comfort zone, plus theres a real why bother button that switches on in your head. Giving yourself permission to be heard is hugely empowering. She awards herself one specialist skill the ability to pick up the phone to anyone, no matter how senior, to get her point across.

Apart from shepherding British citizens on to commercial flights or over the border into Poland, her key task is to manage the sometimes fractious relations between the Ukrainian government and Britain. There is for instance great resentment in Ukraine about the wests dire warnings of a Russian invasion, warnings that the UK has been at the forefront of.

She has also not been afraid to sound the alarm bells over any backsliding in Ukraines fight against corruption.

She recently told one Ukrainian interviewer: When Brits think about Ukraine, by large they think about corruption and they think about war. She said pretty pictures of the Carpathian mountains or Odessa will not shift that narrative. By contrast, positive stories about progress in tackling corruption and positive stories about Ukraine growing in strength as a confident democracy, these are the things that will alter the perceptions of Brits.

See the rest here:
UK ambassador to Ukraine praised for staying put amid fears of invasion - The Guardian

World leaders are staging talks with Russia this week in a last-ditch attempt to stop Vladimir Putin invading Ukraine after months of escalating tension.

The UK government claim negotiations have reached a "critical juncture" and are desperately needed to bring the Kremlin "back from the brink of war".

With more than 100,000 Russian troops assembled at the Ukrainian border, inside Belarus and across the Black Sea, US intelligence officials claim an invasion could happen at "any moment".

Ambassador backtracks comments on Ukraine's NATO membership - live updates

Russia, however, continues to deny it is planning to go to war, but has showed little sign of backing down from its demands over Ukraine and NATO.

Here Sky News looks at who the key players are in the crisis.

Russia

Vladimir Putin

A former KGB agent, Putin has led Russia since 2000 and become synonymous with the country's increasingly hostile foreign policy.

Over the past two decades he has sought to reassert Russian dominance in the East, illegally invading and annexing the Ukrainian region of Crimea in 2014.

Russian troops began to appear on its border with Ukraine in late-2021, before the Kremlin made demands in December that NATO ceases all military activity in eastern Europe and Ukraine is never allowed to become a member.

He has repeatedly denied he is planning to invade Ukraine, but hasn't demonstrated any will to negotiate on his demands around Ukraine and NATO.

Sergei Lavrov

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has been a key negotiator in the crisis, meeting with his US counterpart, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and numerous others from across the West.

He has been in post since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea.

In the run-up to the invasion, he told John Kerry, the US secretary of state at the time, that Russia had "absolutely no intention of, or interest in, crossing Ukraine's borders".

He previously told Mr Blinken that chances of a breakthrough in talks were "low" and mocked Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, after she visited Moscow for being "unprepared" and compared their conversation to "talking to a deaf person".

Sergei Shoigu

The defence minister also holds the rank of general of the Russian army and has been touted as a potential successor of Mr Putin given the pair's close ties.

In post since 2012, Mr Shoigu oversaw the invasion of Crimea in 2014. Ukraine later accused him of forming illegal rebel groups who fought against the Ukrainian Army.

He has held talks with various Western powers during the recent crisis, describing UK-Russian cooperation as "close to zero" after a meeting in Moscow with his counterpart, Ben Wallace.

There are around 130,000 troops stationed on the Russian border, as well as warplanes and ships in the Black Sea.

Ukraine

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

A former actor and comedian, political outsider Volodymyr Zelenskyy won the 2019 elections by a landslide.

Mr Zelenskyy has tried to distance Ukraine from Russia, despite Mr Putin's efforts to reassert influence on its former Soviet neighbour, instead setting his sights on both NATO and EU membership.

In response to the build-up of Russian troops at its border in late 2021, he called on NATO leaders to expedite Ukraine's membership and claimed a group of Russians and Ukrainian rebels were planning a coup to oust him.

He has the support of the West, including the United States, which has repeatedly said it would defend Ukraine should Russia invade.

Dmytro Kuleba

The Ukrainian foreign minister and a member of its National Defense and Security Council, Dmytro Kuleba is one of the youngest senior diplomats in the country's history.

He has repeatedly downplayed the imminent threat of a Russian invasion, accusing the US of exaggerating the danger.

During talks this month he maintained the Russian presence at Ukraine's border is "insufficient for a large-scale military operation".

And despite no sign of any Russian concessions, Mr Kuleba has insisted that Western presence in the region for talks "upsets the Kremlin's plans".

Denis Pushilin

After the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, two other areas, both in the eastern Donbas region, declared independence from Ukraine.

Both the self-proclaimed people's republics of Donetsk and Luhansk are backed by Russia.

The DPR's separatist leader Denis Pushilin has said that increasing Western support of Ukraine could mean a full-scale war with Russia breaking out at any time.

"I don't rule out that Ukraine can attack at any moment," he said.

Some 15,000 people have been killed in fighting between separatists and the Ukrainian Army since 2014 - with senior government sources claiming Russia has deployed around 2,000 personnel to support the region since tensions escalated late last year.

Belarus

Alexander Lukashenko

President Alexander Lukashenko is a firm ally of Mr Putin, with the two countries forming a so-called union state to support economic and military integration.

Russia has been staging military drills involving 30,000 troops inside Belarus and close to its border with Ukraine.

The strategic location of the exercises has prompted fears that should Russia go to war with Ukraine, soldiers would easily be able to access the capital Kyiv and stage an invasion.

Ukraine have described the drills as "psychological pressure", but like Mr Putin, Mr Lukashenko is still denying there is a planned invasion.

"I'm certain there will be no war," he said this month.

United States

With the crisis mounting and sanctions on both sides, relations between Russia and the United States have been described as "at their worst since the Cold War".

After Russian troops emerged at the Ukrainian border last year, President Joe Biden declared his support of Ukraine and threatened the Kremlin with "strong economic and other measures".

In January, Mr Biden was criticised for saying a "minor incursion" by Russia would result in a lesser response from western allies, before the White House clarified his comments.

The US has since been represented at negotiations by Mr Blinken, who has travelled to Kyiv and Switzerland in an attempt to talk Russia down.

Last month he said any form of Russian aggression against Ukraine would be met with a "swift, severe, united" response.

Europe

As well as NATO itself, European leaders have also been trying to negotiate with their Russian counterparts.

French President Emmanuel Macron is trying to use the Minsk accords it brokered between Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists alongside Germany in 2014 and 2015.

The Normandy format within the ceasefire agreement facilitates all four countries sitting around a negotiating table together.

Mr Macron has spoken directly to both Mr Putin and Mr Zelenskyy in recent weeks but has been criticised for some of his interventions.

Germany's new chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is also visiting both Kyiv and Moscow.

Mr Scholz's position is made more difficult by the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Germany and Russia, which his Western allies have called on him to block, but on which no firm action has yet been taken.

NATO

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation is made up of 30 member states across Europe and America.

Russia and Ukraine are not members, but the latter has been pathing a way to NATO membership since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

Mr Putin's main concern is NATO dominance in eastern Europe, where he is trying to re-establish Russia's Soviet-era influence.

He is demanding NATO never allow Ukraine to become a member.

Jens Stoltenberg, its secretary general, has said that a "sovereign, independent and stable Ukraine" is "key to Euro-Atlantic security" and is backing member states in their negotiations with Russia.

Although aiming for a peaceful resolution, NATO troops could be used to back Ukraine in the event of an invasion.

The rest is here:
Ukraine-Russia crisis: Who are the key players as war risks breaking out between Kyiv and the Kremlin? - Sky News

KYIV, Ukraine While the Russian military is not yet capable of mounting a total invasion of Ukraine, portions of its army have reached full combat strength and appear to be in the final stages of readiness for military action should the Kremlin order it, according to an assessment by the Ukrainian militarys high command.

Of particular concern to Ukrainian officials is the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014. In the last two weeks, Russia has deployed an additional 10,000 troops to the region, including infantry and airborne forces; more ominously, it has put some commands on the highest level of readiness, according to the militarys assessment.

Along with recent efforts to strengthen forces near two Kremlin-backed separatist enclaves in Ukraine, the deployments mean that Russia could soon be fully prepared to begin military actions along about 800 miles of Ukraines eastern and southern borders, according to the assessment.

The assessment was described in general terms by a senior Ukrainian military official who spoke on condition of anonymity to disclose confidential intelligence findings. It broadly aligns with newly released satellite images showing a significant military buildup in Crimea over the last few weeks.

But it is not just Crimea. Along much of Ukraines border, analysts are seeing what they describe as a near textbook example of a modern military making final preparations for war. They cited the arrival of logistical infrastructure like hospital and communications units, elements of electronic warfare meant for disrupting enemy communications, air power and additional troops to man equipment that was deployed earlier.

What unnerves me is how methodically theyre going through this, said Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation. Its by the book. You know whats coming next and it shows up.

The Kremlins ultimate intention remained unclear, the Ukrainian official said, echoing the determination of American officials who say that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has yet to decide whether to attack.

Russia has roughly 130,000 troops massed near Ukraines border, U.S. and Ukrainian officials say. The Kremlin has said repeatedly it has no plans to attack, and Mr. Putin while claiming that the United States was trying to goad Russia into war was less strident in his language in an appearance this week, leaving the door open for future diplomacy.

The Ukrainian militarys assessment of Russian capabilities diverges from one the Pentagon provided last week, which said that Moscow had deployed sufficient troops and military hardware to go far beyond a limited incursion into only the border regions. But it moved Ukraines military leadership closer to the American position.

And it painted a dire picture of Russian combat readiness in Crimea, an area that has drawn less attention; for months the focus has been on a Russian troop buildup in the east and, more recently, its moving of forces into Belarus on Ukraines northern border.

On top of the tens of thousands of troops already stationed in Crimea, Russia has recently deployed two additional battalion tactical groups battle ready forces of up to 1,000 troops plus tanks, armor and artillery. This includes one group of airborne troops and another that arrived with 10 trains worth of equipment and armor, the senior Ukrainian official said.

Ukrainian military officials assess that additional forces are on the way, including a subdivision of national guard troops, which could be deployed to hold territory in the event of an invasion.

Moreover, several units deployed to Crimea have been put on the Russian militarys highest state of military readiness, the official said, including marine forces based near the Kerch Strait, which separates mainland Russia from Crimea, and at the headquarters of Russias Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. Troops in other locations have been put on the second highest level of alert, the official said.

Satellite images released by Maxar, a space technology company, this week confirm a buildup of forces in Crimea. They show the addition of numerous tent camps in areas close to military equipment, an indication that troops had arrived or were on the way.

Feb. 3, 2022, 2:31 p.m. ET

The senior Ukrainian official said any incursion could start with localized action and that, if successful, could prompt the Russians to expand the conflict zone. For now, theyre doing everything they can to panic us and panic the West, the official said, calling it a real game of poker.

The Crimea troops are augmented by Russian naval forces deployed to the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, a small strategic body of water over which Ukrainian and Russian forces have clashed repeatedly in recent years. Last April, Russia dispatched its Caspian Flotilla to the waters around Ukraine for exercises and left behind several large landing craft.

Ukrainian officials are now watching the movements of six Russian landing vessels capable of deploying tanks and thousands of troops that Russia has sent from its Baltic and Northern Fleets for exercises in the Mediterranean for any signs that they may continue into the Black Sea.

Its a huge assault grouping, Ihor Kabanenko, a retired admiral with the Ukrainian Navy, said. We have not enough capabilities at sea to adequately respond to such a Russian deployment.

Beyond Crimea, military analysts say it may only be a matter of weeks before the crescent of troops deployed along Ukraines northern, eastern and southern border is ready for action.

Until now, such forces might have looked menacingly large, but they lacked the supply lines and other logistical infrastructure needed to fight.

The satellite images showing row upon row of tanks that have appeared regularly in newspapers were most likely meant to send a message and force a conversation, said General Philip M. Breedlove, who was formerly the supreme allied commander of NATO.

Ominous warnings. Russia called the strike a destabilizing act that violated the cease-fire agreement, raising fears of a new intervention in Ukraine that could draw the United States and Europe into a new phase of the conflict.

The Kremlins position. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who has increasingly portrayed NATOs eastward expansion as an existential threat to his country, said that Moscows military buildupwas a response to Ukraines deepening partnership with the alliance.

Youve seen the pictures of the trucks lined up, Gen. Breedlove said. That is not in tactical or offensive formation. Thats a formation for show.

All that has started to change in recent weeks with the arrival of Iskandar-M cruise missiles, fighter jets and helicopters, according to satellite imagery, Ukrainian and western intelligence assessments and Russias own military announcements.

In some areas where Russia still does not have enough personnel to man equipment, more troops appear to be arriving daily, officials and analysts say. And there is still a question of whether the Russian military has been able to muster sufficient reserve forces for any prolonged military campaign.

In the coming weeks, Russia will likely conduct a series of military drills meant to test the preparedness of its forces, said Michael Kofman, the director of Russia studies at CNA, a research institute based in Arlington, Va. After that, the troops need only to get in their vehicles and head for the Ukraine border, he said.

What a military operation might look at this point is hotly debated.

In late January, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III and Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that Russia had deployed enough forces to invade all of Ukraine, and suggested that fighting could even extend to the streets of Kyiv, the capital, something Mr. Kofman agrees with.

The Russian military is positioning itself to be able to conduct a large scale military operation against Ukraine, and its force posture indicates that if given the order theyre going to conduct a multi-axis attack, Mr. Kofman said.

Under Ukraines assessment, Russia would be unable to sustain an invasion across different points of attack for more than a week because of a lack of supplies including ammunition, food and fuel deployed to front line positions, nor does it have sufficient reserve forces.

In most areas there are enough forces available for smaller, localized assaults that could be used as a diversion from a main attack coming from the east or south where forces are stronger, according to the assessment.

For weeks, Ukraines president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has attempted to play down the severity of the Russian threat, though even he now appears to be growing more concerned.

This is not going to be a war of Ukraine and Russia, should diplomatic efforts still underway fail, Mr. Zelenksy said last week. This is going to be a European war, a full-fledged war.

Read more:
Russian Troops in Final Stages of Readiness Add to Worries for Ukraine - The New York Times