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Russias military buildup around Ukraine has triggered the most serious crisis in relations between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War. Over 100,000 Russian troops are deployed near the border with Ukraine, poised to launch a major military assault at a moments notice. While these developments appear only to affect European security, American commentators have been quick to draw parallels to Taiwan. The similarities seem obvious. Like Ukraine, Taiwan faces an existential threat from one of Eurasias great autocratic powers, and it is also a Western-oriented democracy that the United States has an interest in keeping free from coercion. Both Ukraine and Taiwan are being framed as critical test cases of Americas willingness to uphold global norms against the use of military force to seize territory. Some observers have even gone so far as to argue that their fates will be linked: a failure to respond to military action against Ukraine would weaken American credibility and invite an attack on Taiwan by the Peoples Republic of China.

Put simply, this is lazy analysis. In the current geopolitical moment, the differences between Ukraine and Taiwan are far more important than their similarities and linking together the security threats that the two countries face can make both situations worse. The United States should not continue to divert limited resources away from the Indo-Pacific, where the military balance is shifting in Chinas favor over the next decade, to a region that is both less crucial to American interests and where the balance of power is more advantageous to Washington. U.S. prioritization, not reputation, is what really matters for Taiwans security.

Taiwan Is a Different Kind of Partner

To see why this comparison obscures more than it clarifies, first consider the history of U.S. involvement with each country. American security support for Ukraine is recent, limited, and subsumed under broader concerns about Russias challenge to the post-Cold War European security order.

In Taiwan, however, American interests run deep. Taiwan exists today as a de facto independent state only because the Truman administration intervened in June 1950 to prevent a Chinese invasion across the Taiwan Strait. Ever since, the United States has been the islands primary security partner and source of military aid, training, and arms sales. The United States also helped Taiwan transform from a poor military dictatorship into a prosperous liberal democracy: aid in the early 1950s constituted 10 percent of Taiwans gross national product, and U.S. advisers played an important role in promoting land reform and economic stabilization. Later, the United States granted Taiwanese exporters preferential access to American markets, helping to set Taiwans economy on a rapid upward trajectory that has now brought its per-capita gross domestic product level with Germanys, adjusted for purchasing power.

This long history of engagement means that Americas global reputation and influence have far more at stake in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan than a Russian one on Ukraine.

China Is Not Russia

Next, consider the adversaries. Russias interests, strategies, and tactics on the world stage are all fundamentally different from Chinas. As a declining power ruled by a single strongman since 2000, Russia under Vladimir Putin has had a weak hand to play. Putins aggressive foreign policy actions have been motivated primarily by the need to bolster his domestic standing, not to enhance Russian security. While he has sought to undermine existing institutions and encourage divisions within the European Union and NATO, he has mostly failed to prevent the reorientation of much of Eastern Europe away from Russia and toward the West. That we are talking about Russian threats to Kyiv, rather than Warsaw, Prague, or Budapest, is ample proof of that.

By contrast, China is a rising power, and its leaders have reason to believe that time is on their side. The Chinese economy is already the largest in the Indo-Pacific and the second largest in the world, and it has benefited immensely over the last three decades from the existing global economic and security architecture. In a stark departure from Russian behavior, Chinas moves to revise the international order have mostly involved working through existing global institutions and creating supplemental ones that it can control that is, building up rather than tearing down.

These divergent trajectories have led to fundamentally different strategies to advance their interests in the two cases. Russia has already seized and annexed Ukrainian territory in a blatant violation of international law and norms, and it has supported proxy forces fighting a conflict in eastern Ukraine that has cost over 14,000 lives, taking an enormous toll on its global reputation and national interests.

China has not done anything remotely similar to Taiwan, and the threat it poses is as much economic and diplomatic as it is military. For instance, the Peoples Liberation Army could quickly seize the vulnerable offshore islands of Kinmen and Matsu the former only 30 kilometers from downtown Xiamen if it wanted to destabilize the region and try to force concessions from Taiwan or the United States, but these territories remain under Taiwanese jurisdiction. Likewise, the Chinese militarys regular, high-profile exercises near Taiwans airspace are intended primarily to send signals to leaders in Taiwan and the United States, not seize and maintain territory or foreshadow an invasion. So far, they have also not resulted in any loss of life or direct conflict.

Instead, Chinas strategy is most notable for its reliance on non-military means to gradually shift the cross-Strait status quo. Even when faced with a Taiwan leader it does not like or trust, Beijings Taiwan policy has emphasized soft economic inducements as much as hard diplomatic and military pressure to increase influence over Taiwan. This strategy has also included a relentless, multifaceted propaganda campaign, aimed as much at the United States as the people of Taiwan. This campaign seeks to emphasize the Chinese Communist Partys preferred narrative: that Taiwan is sacred Chinese territory, that China will pay any price to achieve cross-Strait unification, and that a declining United States should back away from its commitments there, because Taiwan will always mean more to the Chinese people than to Americans.

That is a very different kind of message than Russias: It is more patient, more sophisticated, and harder to counter, and American policymakers risk playing right into it by overextending U.S. commitments in other global hotspots.

America Has Different Interests in Taiwan

The range and depth of American interests in Taiwan also dwarf those in Ukraine. Taiwan is an economic powerhouse that punches well above its weight in global commerce, and its economy is closely intertwined with the rest of East Asia and North America. In 2020, it was Americas 9th-largest trading partner, with $106 billion in two-way trade in goods and services. (Ukraine was 67th, with $3.9 billion). It is also the home of the worlds most strategically important company, TSMC, which has built a daunting lead in semiconductor technology and now accounts for more than half of global foundry revenues.

In addition, Taiwan sits in a strategically crucial location astride busy sea routes in the first island chain, with U.S. treaty allies directly to its north (Japan) and south (Philippines). Were the Peoples Liberation Army able to occupy the island, it would undermine Americas ability to defend both, and shatter the credibility of its commitments to other allies and partners in the face of Chinas growing hard power.

Taiwans continued existence as a prosperous liberal democracy also offers a compelling alternative to autocratic China: It demonstrates that democracy and free-market capitalism are suitable for a Chinese-speaking society. Taiwans people share norms and values with the West, not the Chinese Communist Party, and it is a shining success story for U.S. efforts to promote prosperity and freedom in the world. Ukraine could well be that someday, but if it does it will probably be through closer economic integration with the European Union, not its tenuous ties to the United States. For all these reasons, were Taiwan to come under control of Beijing, American interests would be impacted far more severely than in a Russian attack on Ukraine.

America Doesnt Need to Fight Russia in Ukraine to Save Taiwan from China

The most dubious claim to come out of the comparison between Ukraine and Taiwan is about the need to uphold American credibility. Many of the same critics who asserted that Bidens withdrawal from Afghanistan would encourage Chinese adventurism are now advocating for intervention in Ukraine for the very same reason. But that argument rests on a false premise: that the credibility of U.S. commitments in the Taiwan Strait depends on what it does half a world away, against a different adversary, presenting a different kind of threat, to a different coalition of U.S. partners and allies.

In reality, it is American prioritization, rather than reputation, that matters most for Taiwans security. Diverting resources and attention away from the Indo-Pacific to meet a lesser threat will not help reassure allies and partners in the region where the United States will face its greatest security challenges over the next decade.

It is therefore reassuring that Biden administration officials appear to recognize the differences. As National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan noted in a recent interview, the U.S. commitments to Taiwan are

rooted in the One China policy, the Taiwan Relations Act, the three communiques. And the Taiwan Relations Act is a unique instrument we dont have it with other countries; we dont have it with Ukraine that does talk about American commitments to support Taiwan in various ways.

The Biden administrations recent steps to respond to Chinese pressure from arms sales to bilateral trade discussions to the invitation of Taiwans representative to Bidens inauguration ultimately attract much more attention in both Beijing and Taipei than how Washington responds to the crisis in Ukraine.

It would help both Taiwan and Ukraine if more of Americas foreign policy commentators would also notice the difference, and stop linking their fates together.

Kharis Templeman is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, where he manages the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region. A leading expert on Taiwan politics, he is a member of the U.S.-Taiwan Next Generation Working Group and was previously a National Asia Research Program fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research.

Image: 81st Stryker Brigade Combat Team (Photo by Staff Sgt. David Carnahan)

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Taiwan Is Not Ukraine: Stop Linking Their Fates Together - War on the Rocks

It seems most everyone is staring at satellite photos of Russias border with Ukraine. But theyd do well to study insurance tables as well. Business in Ukraine is becoming more and more difficult to insure. Indeed, underwriters are staying away from the country. And without insurance, theres no business. Even without sending a single soldier across the border, Russia could make Ukraines economy tank.

In London, the Joint War Committee (JWC) meets every quarter. Andrew Moulton serves as the committees chair; Neil Roberts is its secretary; and its members include Richard Young and Edward Carpenter. If a crisis erupts, as happens with some frequency, the JWC convenes an extraordinary meeting. As things stand, the committee could convene such a meeting to discuss Ukraine very soon.

Never heard of Moulton or the other members of the JWC? Thats because the committee is an insurance outfit, composed of executives from maritime insurers and underwriters such as Lloyds Market Association, Ascot Underwriting, and Beazley Furlonge.

It seems most everyone is staring at satellite photos of Russias border with Ukraine. But theyd do well to study insurance tables as well. Business in Ukraine is becoming more and more difficult to insure. Indeed, underwriters are staying away from the country. And without insurance, theres no business. Even without sending a single soldier across the border, Russia could make Ukraines economy tank.

In London, the Joint War Committee (JWC) meets every quarter. Andrew Moulton serves as the committees chair; Neil Roberts is its secretary; and its members include Richard Young and Edward Carpenter. If a crisis erupts, as happens with some frequency, the JWC convenes an extraordinary meeting. As things stand, the committee could convene such a meeting to discuss Ukraine very soon.

Never heard of Moulton or the other members of the JWC? Thats because the committee is an insurance outfit, composed of executives from maritime insurers and underwriters such as Lloyds Market Association, Ascot Underwriting, and Beazley Furlonge.

And how insurers and underwriters judge a country, region, or thoroughfare matters a great deal. After Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized the Swedish-owned Stena Impero oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz in July 2019, the JWC added the strait to its list of high-risk locations, which meant that vessels still wishing to sail through the strategic thoroughfare had to alert their insurers.

Insurers willing to accept the risk unsurprisingly jacked up premiums. At the moment, were looking at Ukraine, committee secretary Roberts told me last week. So far, there have been no seizures or attacks on commercial ships. Were not about to inflame the situation by declaring Ukraine an enhanced-risk area. But were definitely keeping an eye on it.

For the JWC, keeping an eye on Ukraine means assessing the risk to civilian vessels in the Black Sea, through which the country receivesand exportsvast amounts of goods. Last year, for example, the Black Sea port of Pivdennyi (also known as Yuzhnyi) processed nearly 53.5 million tons of cargo, more than 45 million tons of which was arriving from, or going to, other countries. While Russia is Ukraines largest trading partner, followed by Germany, Ukraine sells and buys goods from all over the world.

These days, risks facing freighters include not just seizures but interference with the ships radar. Such interference, which shows the ship as being in a different location, confuses crews and can cause collisions. Radars and online maps also show the ship in a false location, which can be useful for a country that wants to sow chaos.

Such interference is already taking place, and some of it appears to be Russias doing. Ships have been shown on radar as making mysterious circles off the coast of California when they were, in fact, on the other side of the globe. An investigation by Lloyds List Intelligence, a maritime intelligence firm, found that the Stena Impero had likely fallen victim to Iranian GPS spoofing. And on several occasions, civilian ships traveling in the Black Sea have encountered mysterious GPS troubles that showed the vessels being in a different part of the Black Sea or even on land.

In 2017, for example, the master of a ship whose GPS suddenly placed it in the wrong part of the Black Sea reported to the U.S. Coast Guard Navigation Center that all ships in the area (more than 20 ships) have the same problem. Analysts concluded the ships may simply have been convenient targets for a Russian test of GPS spoofing.

Should cargo ships in the Black Sea be targeted by GPS spoofing as part of a Russian campaign against Ukraine, Roberts said, it could cause them to become disoriented and collide. Its something you can weather for a while but not for a long time. If the JWC concludes that war is imminent in Ukraine and its adjacent waters, it will quickly convene and place the country in its conflict category, which also includes parts of Eritrea and Libya. As a result, the war-torn parts of those countries are shunned by maritime businesses.

Commenting on Ukraine, Roberts said: Nobody is really sure if its bluff, and were not here to increase the tensions. But if a war begins, Ukraine will be moved to the conflict category. That would mean that even companies wanting to bring goods to and from the countrys ports would struggle to find an insurerand without insurance, business is far too dangerous. In Western countries, its also illegal.

Political risk insurerswhich insure losses caused by political eventshave already made that decision. When Laura Burns, a senior vice president at the insurance broker WTW, and her team recently canvassed the 60 insurers that have in recent years been willing to insure business operations in Ukraine, they found that only three are now willing to take the risk. And even they are circumspect. Theyll look at the companys nationality, Burns told me. Is it American? German? Russian? And theyll look at the sort of equipment the company would need to bring out of the country in case of violence. Insurers also look at what sorts of goods the company has in the country and whether they risk being confiscated or looted in case of war.

In the past few years, insurance rates for Ukraineexcept the Donbass, which insurers unsurprisingly stay away fromhave skyrocketed. As late as 2016, a company with, say, $10 million of exposure would pay an annual insurance premium of $55,000. Today, the premium is $250,000. And thats if you can get insurance, Burns noted.

When it comes to conflicts, insurance companies are the canaries in the coal mine. Because they pay if a company falls victim to violence or other mishaps, theyre extremely attuned to risks on the horizon. This, though, creates a front-page news syndrome, Burns said. As an underwriter, are you going to go out on a limb to defend a position when the front page suggests loss is imminent? Are you going to stick your neck out to insure risk thats all over the news? Of course people dont want to jeopardize their jobs, she said.

Indeed, as they tend to do, underwriters are already looking beyond the horizon to discern how Russias aggression might affect other countries. That means political risk insurance premiums for a country like Moldova could soon increase. We tell our clients to go to a market when there are no clouds, Burns said. She reflected on the 1990s and the first 15 years of this century. Companies went out all over the world. Now they have chess pieces in all these places and are realizing that risk levels are not what they once werein fact, that the risk levels are in some cases dramatically different. Were not in the Pax Americana era anymore.

We certainly arent. Bodies such as the JWC, and the insurers that decide what to insure and what to charge for it, are private sector outfits and have no obligation to underwrite risky business in a world thats turning more turbulent even it remains heavily globalized. Unfortunately for Ukraine, that means Russia can bring Ukrainian business to its knees without moving a single soldier across the border.

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Russia's Threats Could Scare Insurers and Destroy Ukraine's Economy - Foreign Policy

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Why is Russia's Putin so focused on Ukraine?Ukraine has become the main flashpoint in Russia's relations with the West after a series of tough statements from President Vladimir Putinand a build-up of tens of thousands of Russian troops near its border.U.S. DEPUTY SECRETARY OF STATE WENDY SHERMAN SAYING:"If Russia further invades Ukraine, there will be significant costs and consequences.U.S. PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN , SAYING:"I think what you're going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades."NATO SECRETARY GENERAL, JENS STOLTENBERG, SAYING:"The risk of a conflict is real."WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY JEN PSAKI SAYING:"This is an extremely dangerous situation. We're now at a stage where Russia could at any point launch an attack in Ukraine."Here are three reasons why Putin feels so strongly about Ukraineand has chosen to bring the crisis to a head.1. HISTORYWith the 1991 break-up of the Soviet Union,Russia lost control of 14 former republics it had previously dominated,but the loss of Ukraine was the bitterest pill.Many Russians feel a connection with Ukraine that they do not feel towards other former Soviet statesThe two had been linked since the 9th centuryand speak closely related languagesPutin has said Russians and Ukrainians were one peoplewho shared a single historic and spiritual space2. GEOPOLITICSSince the Cold War ended NATO has expanded eastwardsby taking in 14 new countries, including states that were once in the Soviet Union.For Russia - this was a threatening encroachment towards its borders. RUSSIAN PRESIDENT, VLADIMIR PUTIN, SAYING:"The build-up of the United States and NATO's forces next to the Russian borders is of great concern."While Ukraine is not a NATO memberit has a promise it will eventually get to join.Since toppling a pro-Russian president in 2014, it has moved closer to the West,and staged joint military exercises with NATO.Putin says Ukraine's growing ties with the alliance could make it a launchpad for NATO missiles targeted at Russia. He wants security guarantees from the West including the rescinding of NATO's membership promise to Kyiv. 3. PUTIN'S MINDSET AND MOTIVESAs a leader who tolerates virtually no domestic opposition,Putin has a strong aversion to revolutions in neighbouring countries that could encourage protests in Russia. Ukraine is potentially threatening for Putin if it inspires Russians with a pro-Western vision.Keeping the West guessing about a possible invasion of Ukraine has put Russia high on the international agenda and forced U.S. President Joe Biden to re-engage with Putin in a video call in December. In a recent interview Putin mourned the collapse of the Soviet Union as the demise of historical Russia. Some analysts argue such statements suggest Putin sees Ukraine as unfinished businessand wants to follow the seizure of Crimea - which boosted his popularity in Russia to bring part or all of Ukraine back under Moscow's control.

Originally posted here:
Ukraine: Donetsk residents have their say on US-Russia talks

Russia has stationed about 100,000 troops near its border with Ukraine. Vladimir Putins government has issued a list of demands that Western powers are highly unlikely to meet. And President Biden said yesterday that he expected Putin to send troops over the border. But I think he will pay a serious and dear price for it, Biden added.

Todays newsletter offers a Q. and A. on the risks of war in Eastern Europe.

The overall threatening rhetoric from the Kremlin and the movement that military analysts are seeing on the ground give us a lot of ground for concern, Anton Troianovski, The Timess Moscow bureau chief, told my colleague Claire Moses. Its a very serious situation.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russias foreign minister are scheduled to meet for talks tomorrow in Geneva.

1. Why is Putin threatening war with Ukraine?

The honest answer is that most diplomats and experts arent entirely sure. Its not clear what Russias central demand is, Blinken told reporters yesterday in Kyiv, Ukraines capital.

Even Putins top advisers may not know what he is trying to accomplish and how seriously he is considering an invasion, as Anton has written. The expert opinion that I can authoritatively declare is: Who the heck knows? said Fyodor Lukyanov, a Russian foreign-policy analyst who advises the Kremlin.

This murkiness allows Putin to declare the confrontation a success in multiple scenarios.

2. Why is the U.S. so alarmed?

A successful invasion would establish Russia as a dominant, expansionist power in Eastern Europe. It would make other democracies (like Taiwan) worry that they could be vulnerable to takeover by nearby authoritarian countries (like China).

3. What does Putin say his rationale is?

Perhaps the best-known statement of Putins 20-plus years as Russias dominant political figure came from an annual state-of-the-nation speech in 2005 at the Kremlin. The collapse of the Soviet Union, he said, was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.

Ukraine was arguably the most painful loss for Moscow. It was the most populous former Soviet republic to form its own country apart from Russia. The two now share a 1,200-mile border, and Putin often cites their deep cultural ties.

But Ukraine has drifted toward the West in recent years. The U.S. and its allies have increased military aid to Ukraine and also said albeit vaguely that Ukraine will one day join NATO.

Putin has defended the troop buildup by saying it is merely a military exercise. Russia has also released its list of demands, including a NATO pledge never to admit Ukraine and a pullback of NATO troops in Eastern Europe (effectively to where they were in the late 1990s).

Biden, responding to a question from The Timess David Sanger at a news conference yesterday, said Ukraine was unlikely to join NATO in the near term. But Biden ruled out the idea of removing NATO troops from Eastern Europe.

4. What isnt Putin saying?

Some observers believe that the troop buildup is a mixture of bluff and distraction.

A group of Russia experts including Frederick Kagan, who has advised U.S. military leaders in the past made this argument in a recent report called Strategic Misdirection. A full-scale invasion of Ukraine could be bloody and expensive, they wrote, potentially damaging Russias economy and Putins political standing.

As Kori Schake explained in The Atlantic: Half a million Ukrainians have military experience; 24 percent of respondents in one recent poll said that they would resist Russian occupation with a weapon in hand. Russia might succeed in taking Ukraine, but it is unlikely to hold it.

Another reason to be skeptical of invasion: So far, Putin does not appear to be preparing Russians to go to war. Russias deputy foreign minister continued this pattern yesterday, saying, We will not attack, strike, invade, quote unquote, whatever, Ukraine.

Putin may instead be trying to redefine what the West considers unacceptable behavior, Kagan and his co-authors argued. By making an invasion seem possible, Putin can try to win other concessions, such as a freer hand in Eastern Europe.

In the worst-case version of this scenario, the West will be congratulating itself for having avoided a Russian invasion Putin never meant to launch while Putin quietly celebrates an important nonmilitary victory that the West does not even recognize, Kagan and his colleagues wrote.

(Thomas Friedman, the Times Opinion columnist, argues that the threat of war also helps distract Russians from their economic problems.)

5. So the risk of war is low?

Not necessarily. Even skeptics like Kagan acknowledge it is possible, given the lack of transparency about Putins thinking.

A few analysts, like Melinda Haring of the Atlantic Council, believe war is the most likely outcome: Putin has lost patience with Ukraine, she has written, and believes the U.S. would not go to war over it. (Biden said yesterday that a minor incursion would not necessarily pull the U.S. into the fight.) Putin also craves a historical legacy that a territorial expansion could ensure, by helping reverse the catastrophe of the Soviet collapse.

Its very hard to gauge the probability, Michael Crowley, a Times reporter who is covering Blinkens European trip, told me from Kyiv yesterday. This is going to require very creative diplomacy to resolve, if it can be resolved.

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Amanda Gorman writes that were still climbing the hill that her inaugural poem described.

The illiberal left is real. But the illiberal right is the bigger threat, Jonathan Rauch and Peter Wehner say.

Andr Leon Talleys approach to fashion could best be described as more. More glamour, more decadence, more delight. He evoked drama in both his personal style wearing capes and furs and his declarations. Its a famine of beauty, honey! he once proclaimed. My eyes are starving for beauty!

Talley, who died this week at 73, was a pioneering figure in fashion. Using his encyclopedic knowledge of fashion history and his quick wit, he became an editor, author, adviser and TV personality. In the 1980s, he worked his way up to creative director at Vogue, and he spent decades there in various roles.

A 1994 New Yorker profile called Talley The Only One a reference to him often being the sole high-powered Black editor in a field that is notoriously white. His influence is hard to overstate: He mentored the supermodel Naomi Campbell and helped dress Michelle Obama as first lady.

Growing up in the Jim Crow South, Talley wallpapered his bedroom with images ripped from Vogue. I went to school and to church and I did what I was told and I didnt talk much, he told Vogue in 2018. But I knew life was bigger than that. I wanted to meet Diana Vreeland and Andy Warhol and Naomi Sims and Pat Cleveland and Edie Sedgwick and Loulou de la Falaise. And I did. And I never looked back. Sanam Yar, a Morning writer

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Russia and Ukraine, Explained - The New York Times

Ahead of a key meeting on Friday between the U.S. and Russia, the Biden administration on Thursday pushed a full-scale campaign to pressure Moscow as Russian leader Vladimir Putin weighs a possible attack on its neighbor Ukraine.

The U.S. approved its NATO allies in the Baltics to provide additional arms to Ukraine, including critical anti-aircraft missiles that escalate U.S. support. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned four Ukrainian officials it accused of working with Russian intelligence, including to form a new government backed by Russian occupying forces. The State Department blasted a Russian disinformation campaign it said was part of its "pretext" to invade Ukraine and "divide the international reaction to its actions."

One day before his sit-down with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Secretary of State Antony Blinken tried to push back on Russia's narrative and make clear just how high the stakes are in the standoff.

"It's bigger than a conflict between two countries. It's bigger than Russia and NATO. It's a crisis with global consequences, and it requires global attention and action," the top U.S. diplomat said in Berlin, hours after meeting his German, French, and British counterparts to coordinate a response.

That coordination has had tremendous doubt cast on it after President Joe Biden said Wednesday that the NATO alliance was not united about how to respond to aggression from Russia that fell short of an all-out attack on Ukraine -- an uncomfortable truth that U.S. and NATO officials have tried to paper over for weeks.

A convoy of Russian armored vehicles moves along a highway in Crimea, Jan. 18, 2022.

After the White House scrambled to clean that up, Biden himself clarified on Thursday, "If any -- any -- assembled Russian units move across the Ukrainian border, that is an invasion. But -- and it will be met with severe and coordinated economic response that I've discussed in detail with our allies."

But the challenge remains of what the U.S. and its allies will do if Russia attacks Ukraine with the same gray-zone tactics it has used for the last eight years, as it annexed Crimea, launched a war in eastern Ukraine, and began a slow-motion annexation of those provinces.

That war, which has killed approximately 14,000 people, rages on in fits and starts on the frontlines -- and in cyberspace. Ukrainian government websites were hacked in ""the largest cyberattack on Ukraine in the last four years," a Ukrainian cyber official said Wednesday, and Moscow has launched a "disinformation storm" portraying Ukraine as the aggressor and trying to "build public support for a further Russian invasion," a senior State Department official said Thursday.

The Kremlin's campaign to destabilize its smaller, democratic neighbor allegedly includes spies on the ground, collecting information and even plotting to form a new Ukrainian government.

"Russia has directed its intelligence services to recruit current and former Ukrainian government officials to prepare to take over the government of Ukraine and to control Ukraines critical infrastructure with an occupying Russian force," the U.S. Treasury said in a statement.

The U.S. has sanctioned two sitting members of Ukrainian parliament, Taras Kozak and Oleh Voloshyn, who it accused of furthering a plot by the FSB, Russia's main security agency and the successor of the KGB. The agency, which Biden said Wednesday has forces on the ground in Ukraine, is "destabilizing the political situation in Ukraine and laying the groundwork for creating a new, Russian-controlled government in Ukraine," Treasury added.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (background, C) opens a meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken (R), Britain's Minister of State for Middle East, North Africa and North America James Cleverly (foreground R) and French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian (L) at the German Foreign Office in Berlin, Jan. 20, 2022.

In the face of that effort, the U.S. is hoping that transparency can undercut any pretext Russian operatives or their Ukrainian colleagues may create -- just as the White House last week accused the Kremlin of positioning operatives trained in urban warfare and explosives and planning a possible "false-flag" operation.

Russia has denied that, calling it "complete disinformation." It has said repeatedly it does not plan to attack the former Soviet state, even as Putin warned that his demands, including barring Ukraine from joining NATO, be met or Russia will take "military technical" measures.

The U.S. is taking its own military measures, approving the transfer of more weaponry to Ukraine -- this time from Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia, a State Department spokesperson confirmed, while declining to say what weapons exactly.

But a Lithuanian Ministry of Defense source told ABC News the country was given the green light to transfer to Ukraine Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger portable surface-to-air missiles. The Baltic state wanted to send the weapons even earlier, but because they were originally U.S. provided, it needed American approval, which only came during consultations Wednesday, the source said.

Stingers are a kind of man-portable air-defense system, or MANPAD, where an individual soldier can carry the weapon and use it to down fighter aircraft. Javelins, which the Trump administration provided after the Obama administration had refused, have become an important weapon for Ukraine to pierce Russian-made tanks, which could come rolling across the border in an invasion .

Ukraine's military capacity still pales in comparison to Russia's overwhelming military superiority, and it's unclear how many missiles are being provided. Lithuania has only 54 of the missiles in its inventory and only eight launchers from which to fire them from, meaning the amount provided to Ukraine will likely be even lower.

Still, Stingers in particular represent a symbolic threshold that previous administrations had not crossed. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., who was in Kyiv earlier this week as part of a bipartisan congressional delegation, warned Thursday that in this "very fragile time... it would not be helpful to give Putin an excuse to invade Ukraine, so I think we've got to be very thoughtful about how we address some of these issues like a missile system."

Russia has already warned that it sees any Western weapons provided to Ukraine as a threat, especially after the U.S. announced $200 million in new military aid ($650 million total over the last year) and the United Kingdom announced it provided anti-tank missiles.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (background, C) opens a meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken (R), Britain's Minister of State for Middle East, North Africa and North America James Cleverly (foreground R) and French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian (L) at the German Foreign Office in Berlin, Jan. 20, 2022.

Russia, however, has warned that it sees any Western weapons provided to Ukraine as a threat.

"We underline the necessity of ceasing boosting the war-like Ukrainian regime with arms deliveries ... and a lot else that represents a direct threat for us," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Wednesday.

But Blinken pushed back on that Thursday in a major speech, disputing the Russian narrative and making clear Moscow is the aggressor.

"On its face, thats absurd. NATO didn't invade Georgia, NATO didn't invade Ukraine - Russia did," he said, adding NATO neighbors account for six percent of Russia's borders and have 5,000 allied troops in those countries, while Russia has massed 20 times that around Ukraine.

There has been tense speculation about whether Putin will attack Ukraine, with Biden saying Wednesday he believes the strongman leader will "move in." But Blinken said Thursday the U.S. still believes he has not made up his mind yet, but added his animus towards Ukraine has long been known.

"He's told us repeatedly - he's laying the groundwork for an invasion because he doesn't believe that Ukraine is a sovereign nation," Blinken said.

In this image taken from footage provided by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Press Service, a Ukrainian soldiers use a launcher with US Javelin missiles during military exercises in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Jan. 12, 2022.

That argument has been a key part of Russia's disinformation ecosystem, which has been in overdrive in recent weeks, according to senior State Department officials.

Russia's military and intelligence entities have deployed 3,500 posts per day in December -- an increase of 200 percent from November -- as they seek to "create conditions conducive to success of attempted aggression in Ukraine and elsewhere and to divide the international reaction to its actions," a senior State Department official told reporters.

"These are not just public statements from Russia's MFA accounts ... These are broader campaigns using shell companies, false names, and layers to conceal the real backers and their intentions," a second senior State Department official said, calling it "a war on truth."

Russia must pull back its propaganda campaign in addition to its troops on Ukraine's borders, the official added, echoing previous U.S. calls for de-escalation to give diplomacy a shot.

Whether or not diplomacy has a shot will be tested again Friday in Geneva, where Blinken and Lavrov will meet. A senior State Department official said earlier in the week that the meeting itself is a sign the door to diplomacy remains open, but the two sides continue to talk past each other.

The two diplomats will "discuss draft agreements on security guarantees," Russia's embassy in Washington tweeted Thursday - a reference to its demands that NATO bar Ukraine from joining and pull back forces from Eastern European member states. But U.S. officials have repeatedly called those "nonstarters," and Blinken said Wednesday in Kyiv he would not be "presenting a paper" to Lavrov in response.

That has raised fears that Moscow is simply using diplomatic talks to see them fail - yet another pretext before an attack. But regardless of whether there's a full-born assault, Russia has now effectively shaken Ukraine once again. Its president Volodymyr Zelenskyy tried to reassure the nation late Wednesday, even pushing back on the U.S. warnings that the threat is more urgent.

"These risks have been there for more than one day, and they haven't grown nowadays - there is just more buzz around them," he said in a televised address.

ABC's Dada Jovanovic contributed to this report from Belgrade, Serbia, Patrick Reevell from Kyiv, Ukraine, and Luis Martinez from the Pentagon.

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US escalates pressure on Russia, approving new arms and accusing it of plot against Ukraine - ABC News