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By continuing to rely on Russias ethnic minorities and foreign labor migrants to do its dirty work in Ukraine, the Kremlin is inadvertently damaging ties to its former colonies.

A young Uzbek man named Fakhriddin has died in Ukraine after being recruited from a Russian prison, where he had been serving a five-year prison sentence, to work on a construction project in Russia-occupied eastern Ukraine. Fakhriddin, who died when a shell hit the site he was working on, is one of the latest casualties of Russias push to use Central Asian natives not only on Ukrainian battlefields, but also in the reconstruction of battle-torn occupied territories.

Hundreds if not thousands of Central Asian migrants are being hired to work in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, despite dangerous conditions and warnings from their governments not to go to Ukraine. Most of these migrants are used in the reconstruction of war-ravaged cities like Mariupol and Donetsk; others dig trenches and collect dead bodies on the frontlines. Female migrants from Central Asia are also offered jobs in military hospitals, canteens, and factories in occupied eastern Ukraine.

Vacancies are posted on major employment websites like Headhunter and the classifieds site Avito, as well as some regional employment websites, and shared via social media and in migrant communities or advertised by construction companies directly. Employers promise to cover travel expenses to Ukraine, accommodation, meals, and uniforms. Salaries range from $2,000 to $3,300 a month: significantly more than laborers can earn in Russia.Yet despite the enticing promises, Central Asian migrants face the same issues in Russia-occupied Ukraine as they do in Russia itself: unsanitary conditions, unheated living quarters, and poor treatment by employers. Multiple reports indicate that migrants are either underpaid or not paid at all. Some disillusioned workers who have tried to leave Ukraine were not permitted by Russian border guards to re-enter Russia, forcing them to continue working in dangerous conditions on the frontlines while facing criminal prosecution from Kyiv and their home governments for participating in the invasion.

These hostile conditions in eastern Ukraine put Central Asian labor migrants and their governments in a bind. Central Asias population continues to grow rapidly, with around half of the regions population now under thirty years old. A lack of employment options and underdeveloped education systems combined with economies wrecked by nepotism, the COVID-19 pandemic, and capital flight mean many younger Central Asians are forced to move abroad to find work.

Central Asian governments, particularly those of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, have become accustomed to exporting excess labor capacity in order to generate much-needed revenue for households through remittances, relieve domestic pressure to create jobs, and provide public goods and services. Politically, migration serves as a pressure valve that prevents the buildup of unemployment-fueled social and political frustration and helps undemocratic regimes to stay in power.

Russia remains the primary destination for these labor migrants. Familiarity with the Russian language and culture stemming from a shared Soviet past, geographic proximity, and Russias acute need for labor migrants continues to keep Central Asia in Moscows orbit. Streamlined processes for obtaining citizenship for highly qualified personnel from former Soviet republics, such as doctors and engineers, adds to Russias allure, particularly to those from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, the most remittance-dependent countries in the region.

After a pandemic-induced dip, the number of Kyrgyz, Tajiks, and Uzbeks registered to work in Russia is peaking again. According to Russian Interior Ministry data, as many as 978,216 Kyrgyz, 3,528,319 Tajiks, and 5,837,363 Uzbeks entered Russia intending to work in 2022. Some people are likely to have been counted twice in these figures, as they reflect the number of registered border crossings, but they are still at a five-year high.

Now the economic downturn in Russia and pressure to work in Russia-occupied Ukraine might contribute to changes in regional labor migration patternsboth at the grassroots level and from the topthat started during the pandemic. While Uzbekistan has become a popular destination for migrants from Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan has emerged as a popular alternative destination to Russia for a growing number of Uzbeks, Tajiks, and Kyrgyz (precise numbers are harder to find as many migrants take advantage of the lack of visa requirements to work illegally and avoid paying taxes).

Central Asian governments, facing domestic pressure to keep their nationals from dying in Ukraine, are also looking for ways to reduce their employment dependence on Russia by diversifying migration destinations and providing migrants with more resources. Uzbekistan has been working with Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan on the bilateral improvement of migration flows. Last December, the Uzbek and British governments discussed collaboration on labor migration during another round of economic talks. USAID has just opened a second consultation center in Uzbekistan for labor migrants, in Samarkand. In early 2022, Kyrgyzstans Labor Ministry created a center for employment abroad; later that year, the governments of Kyrgyzstan and South Korea signed an agreement guaranteeing additional employment opportunities for Kyrgyz nationals in South Korea.

This search for labor migration alternatives is part of Central Asias slow realignment away from its all-encompassing dependence on Russia: a nuanced dance the regional governments must perform without directly antagonizing the former metropole.

Central Asian governments refused to side with Russia in condemning the UN resolution to end the war in Ukraine. Russias regional integration projects are unlikely to expand, as Uzbekistan continues to decline invitations to join the Eurasian Economic Union, and Russias defeats in Ukraine have weakened the reputation of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. Finally, Central Asian foreign ministers in February welcomed U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the first ministerial-level engagement of the C5+1 Diplomatic Platformwhich represents U.S. engagement with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistanin the region since its 2015 founding.

This realignment can also be seen on the cultural front: the popularity of the Russian language is declining, while local languages are seeing growing interest in them since the invasion of Ukraine. Local governments are cutting the number of Russian language lessons in schools and renaming streets. The issue of decolonization and anti-colonial solidarity is as salient as it has ever been since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

By continuing to rely on Russias ethnic minorities and foreign labor migrants to do its dirty work in Ukraine, the Kremlin is inadvertently damaging ties to its former colonies. The longer the conflict drags on, the more incentive Central Asian republics will have to manage their dependence on Russia in exporting their excess labor. Its hard to see Central Asia quitting on Russia entirely, but the relationship is sure to grow more nuanced and less lopsided in the months to come.

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By Sending Migrants to Ukraine, the Kremlin is Damaging Ties With ... - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

31 March 2023, 06:01 BST

Weapons already on the streets of Merseyside include Skorpion sub-machine guns

The war in Ukraine is likely to fuel gun crime on the streets of Merseyside for many years, a firearms expert said.

Mr James said the Balkans conflict had been the main source of guns being trafficked into Europe since the 1990s.

Guns held by civilians in Ukraine could also end up in the UK, he said, warning of a "time bomb waiting to explode".

Mr James said millions of weapons could circulate when the Ukraine war ends, with many ending up in the hands of criminal gangs.

"From experience, over the last 15 to 20 years, the guns from the Western Balkans have been the main source of firearms trafficked into Europe," he told BBC North West Tonight.

"They have been used in a lot of very high-profile crime and terrorist incidents, and we're still trying to reduce the flow of firearms from there. I think the situation in Ukraine is going to be much worse than that."

Mr James said Merseyside had long been a key area for criminals in the North and Midlands seeking to acquire guns. Many of them were leading figures in drug gangs.

The weapons were used to "enable a lot of the organised crime in the Merseyside area", said Mr James.

The National Crime Agency said: "There is currently no evidence Ukrainian weapons are being sold to criminals but we will closely monitor the threat with our international partners."

Even without weapons being trafficked from Ukraine, there are still a significant number of guns on the streets.

Ch Supt Mark Kameen of Merseyside Police said: "Handguns are the weapon of choice, but we are now seeing Skorpions coming into the force area.

"These sub-machine guns have a huge rate of fire, they're absolutely deadly."

Sicarius McGrath ran an illegal gun factory supplying serious organised crime gangs

Twenty years ago Sicarius McGrath was one of the criminals involved in supplying guns to Merseyside's gangs.

He said he ran a lucrative "gun factory".

Previously deactivated weapons are easy to transform into firearms capable of firing live ammunition, said McGrath, who was most recently released from prison in 2020 and now campaigns against violent crime.

He said the process used to take him less than half an hour and "the profit margin is massive".

"I don't know how many people were harmed as a result of me putting firearms on the street," he said, "but no doubt people were harmed, and it's something I massively regret".

McGrath believes intense, hard-hitting education programmes would deter young people on the fringes of crime from becoming members of serious organised crime gangs.

"We want them to see the reality of gun crime. We want to take them to gravesides, and we want them to speak to victims' parents, and show them not just the injuries sustained, but the ripple effects it has upon families, the effects it has upon the children who have to go and see their fathers in prisons for 30 years."

McGrath warned of "a new breed of criminal" who are "reckless, fearless, and have a strong appetite for violence".

He said urgent action was needed because "otherwise many more innocent victims will die as a result of gun crime".

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Ukraine war guns likely to end up on UK streets, says weapons expert - BBC

WASHINGTON The Biden administration is calling for the creation of a joint tribunal in which Ukraine and international allies would try Russian leaders for crimes of aggression, but some human rights lawyers worry the plan has a fatal flaw:

It might shield President Vladimir V. Putin from prosecution.

Beth Van Schaack, the State Departments ambassador at large for global criminal justice, saidon Monday thatthe administration supported the formation of an internationalized national court in which the United States and other allies would assist Ukrainian prosecutors in bringing cases against Russian leaders for the crime of aggression, or illegally invading another country.

We are committed to working with Ukraine, and peace-loving countries around the world, to stand up, staff and resource such a tribunal in a way that will achieve comprehensive accountability for the international crimes being committed in Ukraine, she said during a war crimes conference at Catholic University in Washington.

Even as her remarks represented one of the most emphatic statements to date indicating U.S. support for prosecuting the crime of aggression, it also underscored the challenge of seeking to hold world leaders liable for their actions while they remain in power. By also establishing clear limits on how far the administration is willing to go, Ms. Van Schaack acknowledged its reluctance to create a precedent that could pave the way for a similar court to prosecute American leaders.

Critics of Russias invasion of Ukraine have debated rival proposals for holding Russian leaders accountable over the war, including establishing a hybrid court rooted in the Ukrainian system, with international elements, or creating a purely international chamber with jurisdiction over the crime of aggression.

While details remain to be worked out and would likely require changes to Ukrainian law, legal specialists say, a hybrid court could include both Ukrainian and international judges, and have jurisdiction over the crime of aggression under both Ukrainian and international law. It could also convene outside the war zone, including at The Hague.

Ukraine, like other countries, allows sitting heads of state to claim immunity from prosecution. In setting up the proposed hybrid court, Ukraines legislature could make an exception, but if Mr. Putin were ever arrested and brought before the court, his lawyers could argue that the exception was illegitimate.

David J. Scheffer, who served as the U.S. ambassador at large for war crimes issues from 1997 to 2001, said the State Departments proposal of a joint tribunal rooted in Ukrainian law fell short.

This is disappointing, added Mr. Scheffer, who has called for a special international tribunal, not a national or hybrid court, to prosecute Russian leaders.

Several former diplomats and academics want the United Nations General Assembly to set up a purely international judicial institution like the International Criminal Court at The Hague, which prosecutes war crimes and has ruled that it need not honor immunity for sitting heads of state. They argue that such a new court could cite that precedent, making it harder for Mr. Putin to invoke immunity and get a case thrown out.

(Aggression is different than war crimes, which involve atrocities committed during a war regardless of the legitimacy of the conflict.)

Aggression is a crime perpetrated by leadership; if the leaders have immunity, what are we even doing? said Jennifer Trahan, a global affairs professor at New York University who favors a tribunal independent of Ukraines judicial system. We are at a Nuremberg moment. Do we really want to deter aggression and the use of force? If we do, we have to have a real deterrent response.

But Harold Hongju Koh, a professor at Yale Law Schoolwho served as a top lawyer in the State Department in the Obama administration, argued that a hybrid tribunal, modeled after a similar court that tried leaders of the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia, could be up and running far quicker.

Mr. Koh notedthat even under a purely international model, the issue of overcoming immunity for sitting heads of state is far from assured.

The best should not be the enemy of the good, Mr. Koh said. A hybrid court has the advantage that such a court has actually worked. The Ukrainians actually have a prosecutorial unit that is working and trying cases. Do you want to get on a train that is going somewhere and see if it can get you where you want to go, or wait for an entirely new train to be built? Why not get on the train?

Vedant Patel, the State Department spokesman, said on Tuesday that the new approach should not be seen as an alternative or replacement for activities by the International Criminal Court. What this is, is another mechanism in which we support all international efforts to examine atrocities, he said.

This month, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant accusing Mr. Putin and one of his top officials of unlawfully abducting Ukrainian children and transporting them to their country.

But that tribunal lacks jurisdiction to prosecute the separate crime of aggression against citizens of countries that are not a party to its treaty and have not signed on to an amendment that added aggression to its purview. Russia has not, and neither has the United States.

Some in the United States especially at the Pentagon also think the court should not exercise jurisdiction for the other offenses in its purview, like war crimes, against citizens of countries that are not a party to the treaty that created it.

But late last year, Congress amended a law to allow support for the courts investigations arising from the war.

Still, the Biden administration is split over how to work with the court. While agencies like the Justice and State Departments support sharing information with it about Russian war crimes, the Pentagon has objected, fearing creating a precedent that could make it easier to prosecute Americans in the future.

In her remarks, Ms. Van Schaack appeared to obliquely refer to the dispute, noting the implementation of the new legislative amendments to help the I.C.C. prosecutor is under review.

Ms. Van Schaack, who helped investigate war crimes in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, said American officials and European partners, working with the newly created International Center for the Prosecution of the Crime of Aggression in The Hague, would build criminal dossiers against those leaders responsible for planning, preparing, initiating or waging this war of aggression for future trials.

The Justice Department is increasingly focused on a similar supporting role, providing Ukraines prosecutors with logistical help, training and direct assistance in major cases.

Apart from assisting prosecutors in Ukraine, any collectedevidence could be used for war crimes and genocide prosecutions, and might even spur further sanctions against Moscow, she added.

Mr. Scheffer, who helped create international judicial systems to prosecute defendants from Rwanda, Sierra Leone and the former Yugoslavia, said that nesting prosecutions in a national court as opposed to creating a completely international court could marginalize the effort to hold Mr. Putin responsible.

I am skeptical there will be a lot of financial support for an internationalized Ukrainian court, by the time they get around to bringing charges, Mr. Scheffer said.

Michael Crowley contributed reporting.

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The Latest: War in Ukraine: U.N. Warns of Buildup of Russian and ... - The New York Times

Russia

US security spokesman says new evidence suggests Moscow offering food to rogue nation in return for dozens of kinds of weapons and munitions

Associated Press

Thu 30 Mar 2023 20.29 EDT

The White House says it has new evidence that Russia is looking again to North Korea for weapons and munitions to fuel the war in Ukraine, this time in a deal that would provide Pyongyang with much-needed food and other commodities in return.

It is the latest accusation that Russia, desperate for weaponry and restricted by sanctions and export controls, is turning to rogue nations to help it continue its 13-month-old war.

As part of this proposed deal, Russia would receive over two dozen kinds of weapons and munitions from Pyongyang, White House national security council spokesman John Kirby said on Thursday. We also understand that Russia is seeking to send a delegation to North Korea and that Russia is offering North Korea food in exchange for munitions.

Experts believe the food situation in North Korea is the worst it has been under Kim Jong-uns 11-year rule, but see no signs of imminent famine or mass deaths. Kim has vowed to strengthen state control over agriculture and take a spate of other steps to increase grain production, North Korean state media reported earlier this month.

The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said last month that US intelligence suggested China was considering providing arms and ammunition to Russia, though White House officials have said they have yet to see evidence of Beijing following through with weapons delivery.

Last year, reports emerged that Russias ambassador in Pyongyang suggested North Korea could send workers to two Russian-controlled territories in eastern Ukraine to help rebuild the war-shattered infrastructure there.

Alexander Matsegora said there were potentially a lot of opportunities for economic cooperation between the North and the self-proclaimed peoples republics in Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraines Donbas region, despite United Nations sanctions.

Earlier on Thursday, the Treasury Departments Office of Foreign Assets Control announced sanctions against a Slovakian national, Ashot Mkrtychev, alleging he attempted to facilitate arms deals between Russia and North Korea.

Kirby said Mkrtychev is at the center of the new North Korea-Russia deal, which has yet to be consummated. He added that the US does not have evidence that Mkrtychev was involved in the earlier transfer of weapons to Russias Wagner Group, whose mercenaries have been in the centre of a months-long battle for the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.

Between the end of 2022 and early 2023, Treasury said Mkrtychev worked with North Korean officials to obtain over two dozen kinds of weapons and munitions for Russia in exchange for commercial aircraft, raw materials and commodities to be sent to North Korea.

Mkrtychev worked with a Russian citizen to find commercial aircraft to delivers goods to North Korea in the exchange.

Russia has lost over 9,000 pieces of heavy military equipment since the start of the war, and thanks in part to multilateral sanctions and export controls, Putin has become increasingly desperate to replace them, Treasury secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement. Schemes like the arms deal pursued by this individual show that Putin is turning to suppliers of last resort like Iran and the DPRK [Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea].

Any arms deal with Russia would be a violation of UN resolutions that ban North Korea from exporting to or importing weapons from other countries.

North Korea is the only nation aside from Russia and Syria to recognise the independence of Russian-controlled territories, Donetsk and Luhansk, in eastern Ukraine.

The publicising of Russias efforts to get weapons from North Korea is just the latest example of the Biden administration loosening restrictions on intelligence findings and making them public over the course of the war in Ukraine.

The administration has previously declassified intelligence to present evidence that Iran sold hundreds of attack drones to Russia over the summer and that the Wagner Group, a private Russian military company, has taken delivery of arms from North Korea to help bolster its forces as they fight alongside Russian troops in Ukraine.

The administration has said it has sought to disseminate the intelligence findings so allies and the public remain clear-eyed about Moscows intent and so Russian president Vladimir Putin thinks twice about his actions.

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Russia seeking weapons from North Korea to bolster Ukraine war, says US - The Guardian

OUAGADOUGOU, Burkina Faso - Jan. 20, 2023: A banner of Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen during a protest to support the Burkina Faso President Captain Ibrahim Traore and to demand the departure of France's ambassador and military forces.

OLYMPIA DE MAISMONT/AFP via Getty Images

Russia's sphere of influence is growing as propaganda and diplomatic efforts gather momentum and Western powers fail to counter the Kremlin's narratives, analysts suggest.

A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit earlier this month indicated that net support for Russia had grown in the year since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as Moscow ramps up its diplomatic charm offensive of previously neutral or geopolitically unaligned countries.

Assessing countries' enforcement of sanctions, U.N. voting patterns, domestic political trends and official statements alongside economic, political, military and historical ties, the EIU observed a significant uptick in the number of countries now leaning toward Russia from 29 last year to 35 today.

"China remains the most significant country in this category, but other developing countries (notably South Africa, Mali and Burkina Faso) have also moved into this grouping, which accounts for 33% of the world's population," the EIU report said, adding these trends highlight Russia's growing influence in Africa.

Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow earlier this month and the two leaders vowed to deepen economic ties.

While South Africa caused controversy in February by holding joint military drills with Russia and China on the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine.South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor indicated that the "massive transfer of arms" from the West to Ukraine had changed Pretoria's outlook and lauded the country's "growing economic bilateral relationship" with Moscow.

The EIU said the number of neutral countries rose from 32 to 35, now representing almost 31% of the global population.

"Some previously Western-aligned countries, including Colombia, Turkey and Qatar, have moved into this category as their governments are seeking to reap economic benefits from engaging with both sides," the EIU said.

"However, both Russia and China are upping the ante in recruiting those countries that are non-aligned and neutral."

By contrast, the number of countries actively condemning Russia fell from 131 to 122. The U.S. and European Union-led bloc including "West-leaning" countries represents around 36% of the global population, and has exhibited a "strong level of collaboration on sanctions" along with consistent military and economic support for Ukraine, the report said.

However, this bloc also represents just under 68% of global GDP, highlighting an emerging disconnect between wealthy Western economies and the Global South.

"Russian propaganda in developing countries is working extremely well, stoking up resentment against former colonial powers, and I would say also fueling the idea that sanctions from Western countries are fueling global food insecurity, global energy insecurity especially in emerging countries," EIU Global Forecasting Director Agathe Demarais told CNBC.

"Obviously this is wrong, this is not the case, but I think that it works very well in disinformation campaigns, propaganda campaigns."

The Russian government has been contacted for comment.

Demarais highlighted that there is a perceived "hypocrisy" in Western condemnations of Russia in the Global South, given the history of Western military intervention a sentiment Russia has sought to foment in order to deflect attention from its actions in Ukraine.

Many in developed Western countries view the idea of Russia being an "appealing" and "attractive" country to some in the Global South as "impossible," Demarais said, which underestimates the power of Russia's message and its positioning of itself as a savior.

Russia and China have increasingly represented themselves to developing nations as alternatives to the West as economic and military partners, in that neither will attach demands around democracy or human rights to diplomatic relations.

"There is a lack of willingness to acknowledge that people may not be thinking like we do, and it is really worrying," Demarais said.

Western leaders "are thinking about it in terms of we are on the right side of history, which is true, but it doesn't mean we don't need to explain it."

Countering organized Russian propaganda first requires acknowledging the problem, and building awareness about the aims and effectiveness of sanctions, she said.

"I think there is a lack of knowledge about sanctions and how they work, what they do etc., and Russia is obviously using this to its advantage.It's going to be a very long-term trend, I'm not sure there is any quick magical fix. It's not a pretty picture."

The largest economy and population center still falling under the EIU's "neutral" designation was India, and Moscow claimed earlier this week that oil exports to India increased 22-fold last year.

At the recent Raisina Dialogue geopolitics forum in New Delhi, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was the subject of laughter from delegates when he suggested that the Ukraine war was "launched against" Russia.

However, he received supportive applause when bemoaning Western hypocrisy and double standards as he highlighted the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and other perceived Western transgressions.

He also tried to advance the narrative that sanctions from the West were responsible for grain supply shortages experienced by developing countries as a result of the war.

Rachel Rizzo, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Europe Center, was in the audience, and told CNBC that perspectives on the war were starkly different in India.

"What becomes clear when you get outside of U.S./European circles is that for us, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the very clear centerpiece of much of our policy decisions and conversations, and then when you talk to people that aren't in the U.S. or Europe, it becomes clear that the conflict is very much regional, and a much smaller part of a broader puzzle," Rizzo told CNBC via telephone from Washington, D.C.

"What I thought was interesting that I heard a few times was that this is a regional conflict that the U.S. and Europe, particularly the U.S., have made global because of our great power competition with Russia and our global sanctions regime."

She said many developing countries are being placed in positions they "don't want to be in" by demands from the U.S. and Europe to more outwardly side with Ukraine, even though many nations constituting the Global South actually voted in favor of the U.N. resolution condemning the invasion.

"What has happened in the U.S. is this framework of democracies versus autocracies has been the framing position of Biden and his foreign policy, and I don't think that lands for a lot of the rest of the world, and it's not a framework that I think countries identify with in many ways," Rizzo said.

"It's interesting to see how the conversations that we have here don't necessarily reflect what's happening in countries that are very important, I think, to our foreign policy and our geopolitical standing."

She also suggested it was overly simplistic to attribute the shifting sands primarily to Russian disinformation campaigns, as this underestimates countries' agency and self-interest.

"Not every country that decides to accept Russian energy imports etc., or has pro-Russian sentiment throughout their populations, not all of that is a result of Russian information campaigns or disinformation campaigns," she said.

"Some of this is the very real consequences of Russia looking at these countries as opportunities, the U.S. not being seen as the benevolent hegemonic power as we like to see ourselves. It is much more complicated than Russia pushing disinformation narratives., and unfortunately I think when you attribute, as we like to do, pro-Russian sentiment to that, you lose a whole lot of what is actually going on."

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'It's not a pretty picture': Russia's support is growing in the developing world - CNBC