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OUAGADOUGOU, Burkina Faso - Jan. 20, 2023: A banner of Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen during a protest to support the Burkina Faso President Captain Ibrahim Traore and to demand the departure of France's ambassador and military forces.

OLYMPIA DE MAISMONT/AFP via Getty Images

Russia's sphere of influence is growing as propaganda and diplomatic efforts gather momentum and Western powers fail to counter the Kremlin's narratives, analysts suggest.

A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit earlier this month indicated that net support for Russia had grown in the year since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as Moscow ramps up its diplomatic charm offensive of previously neutral or geopolitically unaligned countries.

Assessing countries' enforcement of sanctions, U.N. voting patterns, domestic political trends and official statements alongside economic, political, military and historical ties, the EIU observed a significant uptick in the number of countries now leaning toward Russia from 29 last year to 35 today.

"China remains the most significant country in this category, but other developing countries (notably South Africa, Mali and Burkina Faso) have also moved into this grouping, which accounts for 33% of the world's population," the EIU report said, adding these trends highlight Russia's growing influence in Africa.

Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow earlier this month and the two leaders vowed to deepen economic ties.

While South Africa caused controversy in February by holding joint military drills with Russia and China on the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine.South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor indicated that the "massive transfer of arms" from the West to Ukraine had changed Pretoria's outlook and lauded the country's "growing economic bilateral relationship" with Moscow.

The EIU said the number of neutral countries rose from 32 to 35, now representing almost 31% of the global population.

"Some previously Western-aligned countries, including Colombia, Turkey and Qatar, have moved into this category as their governments are seeking to reap economic benefits from engaging with both sides," the EIU said.

"However, both Russia and China are upping the ante in recruiting those countries that are non-aligned and neutral."

By contrast, the number of countries actively condemning Russia fell from 131 to 122. The U.S. and European Union-led bloc including "West-leaning" countries represents around 36% of the global population, and has exhibited a "strong level of collaboration on sanctions" along with consistent military and economic support for Ukraine, the report said.

However, this bloc also represents just under 68% of global GDP, highlighting an emerging disconnect between wealthy Western economies and the Global South.

"Russian propaganda in developing countries is working extremely well, stoking up resentment against former colonial powers, and I would say also fueling the idea that sanctions from Western countries are fueling global food insecurity, global energy insecurity especially in emerging countries," EIU Global Forecasting Director Agathe Demarais told CNBC.

"Obviously this is wrong, this is not the case, but I think that it works very well in disinformation campaigns, propaganda campaigns."

The Russian government has been contacted for comment.

Demarais highlighted that there is a perceived "hypocrisy" in Western condemnations of Russia in the Global South, given the history of Western military intervention a sentiment Russia has sought to foment in order to deflect attention from its actions in Ukraine.

Many in developed Western countries view the idea of Russia being an "appealing" and "attractive" country to some in the Global South as "impossible," Demarais said, which underestimates the power of Russia's message and its positioning of itself as a savior.

Russia and China have increasingly represented themselves to developing nations as alternatives to the West as economic and military partners, in that neither will attach demands around democracy or human rights to diplomatic relations.

"There is a lack of willingness to acknowledge that people may not be thinking like we do, and it is really worrying," Demarais said.

Western leaders "are thinking about it in terms of we are on the right side of history, which is true, but it doesn't mean we don't need to explain it."

Countering organized Russian propaganda first requires acknowledging the problem, and building awareness about the aims and effectiveness of sanctions, she said.

"I think there is a lack of knowledge about sanctions and how they work, what they do etc., and Russia is obviously using this to its advantage.It's going to be a very long-term trend, I'm not sure there is any quick magical fix. It's not a pretty picture."

The largest economy and population center still falling under the EIU's "neutral" designation was India, and Moscow claimed earlier this week that oil exports to India increased 22-fold last year.

At the recent Raisina Dialogue geopolitics forum in New Delhi, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was the subject of laughter from delegates when he suggested that the Ukraine war was "launched against" Russia.

However, he received supportive applause when bemoaning Western hypocrisy and double standards as he highlighted the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and other perceived Western transgressions.

He also tried to advance the narrative that sanctions from the West were responsible for grain supply shortages experienced by developing countries as a result of the war.

Rachel Rizzo, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Europe Center, was in the audience, and told CNBC that perspectives on the war were starkly different in India.

"What becomes clear when you get outside of U.S./European circles is that for us, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the very clear centerpiece of much of our policy decisions and conversations, and then when you talk to people that aren't in the U.S. or Europe, it becomes clear that the conflict is very much regional, and a much smaller part of a broader puzzle," Rizzo told CNBC via telephone from Washington, D.C.

"What I thought was interesting that I heard a few times was that this is a regional conflict that the U.S. and Europe, particularly the U.S., have made global because of our great power competition with Russia and our global sanctions regime."

She said many developing countries are being placed in positions they "don't want to be in" by demands from the U.S. and Europe to more outwardly side with Ukraine, even though many nations constituting the Global South actually voted in favor of the U.N. resolution condemning the invasion.

"What has happened in the U.S. is this framework of democracies versus autocracies has been the framing position of Biden and his foreign policy, and I don't think that lands for a lot of the rest of the world, and it's not a framework that I think countries identify with in many ways," Rizzo said.

"It's interesting to see how the conversations that we have here don't necessarily reflect what's happening in countries that are very important, I think, to our foreign policy and our geopolitical standing."

She also suggested it was overly simplistic to attribute the shifting sands primarily to Russian disinformation campaigns, as this underestimates countries' agency and self-interest.

"Not every country that decides to accept Russian energy imports etc., or has pro-Russian sentiment throughout their populations, not all of that is a result of Russian information campaigns or disinformation campaigns," she said.

"Some of this is the very real consequences of Russia looking at these countries as opportunities, the U.S. not being seen as the benevolent hegemonic power as we like to see ourselves. It is much more complicated than Russia pushing disinformation narratives., and unfortunately I think when you attribute, as we like to do, pro-Russian sentiment to that, you lose a whole lot of what is actually going on."

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'It's not a pretty picture': Russia's support is growing in the developing world - CNBC

KYIV, March 29 (Reuters) - Ukraine struck a railway depot and knocked out power in the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol deep behind front lines on Wednesday amid growing talk from Kyiv of a counterassault against Russian forces worn out by a failed winter offensive.

Unverified images on the internet showed explosions lighting up the night sky with streaks of contrails in Melitopol, base of the Russian-controlled administration in Zaporizhzhia, one of five Ukrainian provinces Russia claims to have annexed.

Ukraine's exiled mayor of the city confirmed there were explosions there. Russia's state TASS news agency, citing Moscow-installed officials, said a railway depot was damaged and power knocked out to the city and nearby villages.

Melitopol, which had a pre-war population of around 150,000, is a railway logistics hub for Russian forces in southern Ukraine and part of the land bridge linking Russia to the occupied Crimea peninsula.

There was no public information about the weapons Ukraine might have used for the strike. The city is at the far edge of the range of Ukraine's HIMARS rockets and within reach of newer weapons it is said to be deploying, including air-launched JDAM bombs and ground-launched GLSDB munitions promised by the United States. Russia said it shot down a GLSDB on Tuesday, the first time it has reported doing so.

The strike could hamper Moscow's rear logistics at a time when Kyiv has suggested it could soon mount a counterattack against Russian invasion forces who have scored no big victories in a months-long offensive despite the war's bloodiest fighting.

Melitopol is south of the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, visited on Wednesday by U.N. nuclear agency chief Rafael Grossi, who repeated calls for a safe zone there, saying the situation had not improved and fighting nearby had worsened.

Ukrainian forces have stuck mainly to a defensive footing since their last big advance nearly five months ago. In that time, Moscow has launched a winter assault using hundreds of thousands of reservists and thousands of convicts recruited from prisons for its Wagner private army.

But as the winter turns to spring, questions hover over how much longer the Russians can sustain their offensive and when the Ukrainians will strike back.

There are clear signs the Russian assault is flagging.

The average number of daily Russian attacks on the front line reported by Ukraine's general staff has declined for four straight weeks since the start of March, to 69 in the past seven days from 124 in the week of March 1-7. Just 57 attacks were reported on Wednesday.

Reuters journalists near the front lines west of Bakhmut and further north also reported a notable decline in the intensity of Russian attacks last week.

A sense of anticipation ahead of the counteroffensive is building inside Ukraine.

[1/10]Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy visits positions of Ukrainian Border Guards near the border with Russia, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Sumy region, Ukraine March 28, 2023. Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via REUTERS

On Wednesday, Oleksiy Honcharenko, a lawmaker, posted a video on social media of dozens of manned Ukrainian fighting vehicles with their engines running in a large open field. Reuters could not immediately verify the authenticity of the video or when it was filmed.

The Russians have made no significant gains despite huge casualties on both sides, and Ukrainian and Western officials say they suspect the Russian attacking force will soon be spent.

Russian officials say their forces are still capturing ground in street-by-street fighting inside Bakhmut, the small eastern city that has been their main target for months. But they have failed so far to encircle it and force the Ukrainians to withdraw, as had seemed likely weeks ago.

"The battle for Bakhmut today has already practically destroyed the Ukrainian army, and unfortunately, it has also badly damaged the Wagner Private Military Company," Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin said in an audio message.

In its evening update on Wednesday, Ukraine's military General Staff said Russian forces had had "a degree of success" in efforts to storm Bakhmut but Kyiv's forces continued to stand firm and were "repelling numerous enemy attacks".

British military intelligence said on Wednesday the Ukrainians had successfully pushed the Russians back from the main supply route to Bakhmut and Russian assaults in the city were lessening.

This past week Moscow also unleashed a new attack on Avdiivka, a smaller city further south. Britain said that too had failed to achieve gains, while leading to huge losses in Russian armour.

The week has also seen the arrival of the first full units of Western main battle tanks for Kyiv, promised two months ago to serve as the spearhead of a counteroffensive when warmer weather dries Ukraine's notorious sucking black mud.

In an apparent response, Russia's RIA news agency reported that Moscow had sent its troops hundreds of new and refurbished tanks of its own.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Wednesday that a plan announced this week to deploy tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of ally Belarus would force NATO to assess the gravity of the situation.

Moscow has repeatedly pointed to the threat that the war could turn nuclear, which Western governments largely dismiss as an attempt to intimidate them into rolling back military aid for Kyiv.

U.S. President Joe Biden called the deployment prospect "worrisome", though Washington has said it has not seen any indications Russia was closer to using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

In Moscow's latest brandishment of its nuclear strike capability, Russia's defence ministry said on Wednesday it had begun exercises with its Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system, involving several thousand troops.

Ryabkov said Russia, which suspended participation last month in its last arms control treaty with the United States, was no longer providing Washington any data about nuclear activities.

Reporting by Reuters bureaux; writing by Peter Graff and Mark Heinrich; editing by Angus MacSwan and Alex Richardson

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Ukraine hits Russian-held city deep behind front as talk of ... - Reuters

European leaders are close to discussing whether the European Union can send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbn was quoted as saying on Friday.

Orbn, a longtime ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, was speaking to local radio station Kossuth Rdi on Friday morning about Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, media outlet Mandiner reported.

Earlier in March, the Russian government mentioned Hungary as being in a group of foreign states that it said had committed "unfriendly actions against Russia, its companies and citizens," despite a longstanding amicable relationship between Orbn and Putin.

"The war is getting more and more brutal and bloody," Orbn was quoted by Mandiner as saying on Friday.

The Hungarian prime minister also reportedly said that European leaders are close to considering whether the EU can send peacekeeping troops into Ukraine.

"The war is worrying and dangerous for the Hungarian people. Our security is in danger," said Orbn.

Since "the West is providing Ukrainians with more and more modern equipment, I am convinced that the threat of world war is not a literary exaggeration," he said.

"When European and American leaders say that if this continues, we could end up in the third world war, it seems incredibly exaggerated at first, but where I work and where I see the events, this is a real danger at this moment, " Orbn said.

Hungary has refused to supply Kyiv with weapons, despite appeals from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Western leaders for military supplies.

Hungarian Defense Minister Kristf Szalay-Bobrovniczky said in February that his country does not want to see an escalatation of the war in Ukraine. He said Hungary wants to remain on the side of peace and that it provides humanitarian aid to Ukrainians fleeing the war.

"We live in a time of danger," he said at the time.

Orbn has built strong economic and political ties with Russia but Hungary has condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has gone along with a number of EU sanctions packages.

On January 27 Orbn suggested that Western nations have already "drifted" into becoming active participants in the war by providing weapons and money to assist Kyiv. Western countries should instead pursue "a ceasefire and peace talks," he said on Hungarian state radio.

On Friday he said that leaders "need to present arguments so that the warring parties see that a ceasefire is in the interests of both."

Newsweek has contacted the Hungarian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation via email for comment.

Do you have a tip on a world news story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about the Russia-Ukraine war? Let us know via worldnews@newsweek.com.

Update 03/31/23, 6:28 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with additional information.

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Europe Close to Deciding on Peacekeeping Troops in UkraineViktor Orbn - Newsweek

As Russias bloody war in Ukraine continues to devastate lives across the country, women in particular are suffering detrimental effects to their mental, physical and sexual and reproductive health.

Millions of women remain displaced, making them extremely vulnerable to trafficking as well as gender-based and sexual violence.

The International Rescue Committee warned last month that abuse against women was rising.

Some expectant mothers give birth without medical assistance in basements and bomb shelters while hospitals are attacked, while basic services have been disrupted to such an extent that the reproductive health of many is in jeopardy.

We spoke to the Ukraine representative for the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), Jaime Nadal, about the continuing risk the conflict poses for women.

Al Jazeera: How many babies have been born since the conflict began and what complications does war bring to pregnancy and childbirth?

Jaime Nadal: In 2022, almost 180,000 women gave birth in Ukraine, many suffering a risk to their lives because of difficulties accessing appropriate healthcare.

Hospitals and civilian infrastructure have been targeted with shelling. A pregnant woman [should] not be wandering around in the middle of shelling to access facilities.

The supply chain for items needed for C-sections and the management of birth and pregnancy complications is also impacted. In the most extreme cases, healthcare professionals have been forced to live in the hospitals they work in, adding significant stress.

We are seeing an increasing number of preterm babies and miscarriages, as well as conditions like eclampsia and hypertension. The nutrition of women is also being compromised by months of displacement and physical exhaustion.

Nadal: The most critical moment in a pregnancy is the delivery and the next 72 hours that follow. Any woman who is unable to follow up with a professional during that time could suffer life-threatening complications.

In the first week of the full-scale war, 84 women gave birth in the Kyiv metro. When women give birth while sheltering from missile attacks underground in metro stations or in basements, they can develop life-threatening conditions such as sepsis that pose a great risk to them and their baby.

Al Jazeera: Do attacks on hospitals especially on maternity units, as seen in the southeastern city of Mariupol in March last year make women scared to seek medical care when they need it?

Nadal: Any attack on civilian infrastructure, including a hospital, is a human rights violation and should never happen. These attacks undermine civilian access to life-saving services.

Many women are hesitant to go to hospitals and in the middle of shelling. It can be extremely risky to attempt to. At the beginning of the war in Chernihiv, to the north of Kyiv, a number of women went to hospitals to give birth and found they couldnt go home again as Russia had occupied their villages.

One woman went to a hospital with her husband to give birth, leaving her other children with their grandparents. Russia occupied her home and she was unable to see or speak to her children for a month. You can imagine the level of anxiety and stress that causes.

There has been a rise in sexual and gender-based violence in Ukraine since the start of the war, as well as an increase in domestic violence.

Al Jazeera: How can women be protected?

Nadal: The invasion displaced millions of people, many of them women and children. When you have so many people at that level of vulnerability, the risk of gender-based violence, sexual violence, trafficking and exploitation is high.

Our priority was to quickly re-establish services such as shelters and mobile clinics, and to make sure women know they can access psychosocial support and hygiene kits to preserve their dignity.

We first started seeing cases of sexual violence after the liberation of Bucha and Irpin. None of the survivors had reported the cases to law enforcement, and most wanted help to test for STIs [sexually transmitted infections] or pregnancy.

It takes a lot of work from psychologists to get them to open up and identify as survivors, and the trauma will take a long time to heal.

Before the war, we developed an initiative that provides space for men in the Ukrainian military to engage meaningfully with their children and wives. The first hubs were in the east from 2014. We provide men with psychosocial support that steers them away from toxic masculinity. This helps them process trauma, which can manifest in violence, abuse or alcohol misuse.

Al Jazeera: What are the latest figures on the scale of sexual violence in Ukraine?

Nadal: Its hard to rely on numbers, as they dont give an accurate reflection of the problem. Many survivors are reluctant to disclose what happened due to trauma, stigma and self-blame.

Out of the cases recorded by OHCHR, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, two-thirds are women and one-third are men, many of them former prisoners of war. The number of cases reported is probably the tip of the iceberg.

In our Dnipro centre, staff told me that for every 100 women they have seen, maybe 10 have suffered gender-based violence and one sexual violence. Sometimes people try to pretend it didnt happen or try to live with it and dont seek help.

We need to ensure that survivors know they are not alone, the situation matters and that the UN and the Ukrainian government are working to provide them with the best care possible. Our mobile teams have provided general support to over 17,000 women so far, and our relief centres almost 10,000. The more services we put in place the more survivors will seek help.

Al Jazeera: The situation is very different for people in the west of the country compared to the east. How does that affect the provision of support for women?

Nadal: Were very worried about the protracted nature of this crisis now. There has been a huge movement of women from the east and south to central and western Ukraine and abroad.

The harsh conditions of displacement increase the complexity of womens needs.

The lack of available work and income poses a huge challenge to the wellbeing of women and their families, as well as the difficulty in accessing healthcare in some places. What were seeing is that the situation is worse in 2023 and we are constantly trying to keep up with new developments.

We have repeatedly requested access to occupied territories, but have not been granted it. In the east of the country, were very concerned about the situation of older women. Some dont want to leave their homes behind and are living close to the front line of the conflict with serious health conditions, such as uterine prolapse.

Al Jazeera: With hospitals shelled, where are these women supposed to go if they experience something like this?

Nadal: There are some mobile clinics run by the government that we support that go to communities to help, especially for those with mobility issues or disability, and for areas where there is no public transport.

War comes with suffering, pain, stress and anxiety. The extension of this war is prolonging the distress of millions of women.

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Russias war in Ukraine exacts heavy toll on women, says UNFPA - Al Jazeera English

If eastern town falls to Russian forces, Putin would sell this victory to the West, to his society, to China, to Iran, Ukraine leader Zelenskyy says.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned unless his country wins a months-long battle in the eastern city of Bakhmut, Russia may begin building international support for a peace deal that could require Ukraine to make unacceptable compromises.

He also invited the leader of China, long aligned with Russia, to visit Ukraine.

If Bakhmut falls to Russian forces, President Vladimir Putin would sell this victory to the West, to his society, to China, to Iran, Zelenskyy said.

If he will feel some blood smell that we are weak he will push, push, push, Zelenskyy told The Associated Press on Tuesday.

The president said he worries the war could be impacted by shifting political forces in Washington.The United States really understands that if they stop helping us, we will not win.

Zelenskyy also extended an invitation to Chinese President Xi Jinping.

We are ready to see him here. I want to speak with him. I had contact with him before full-scale war. But during all this year, more than one year, I didnt have, he said.

China, economically aligned and politically favourable towards Russia for decades, has provided Putin diplomatic cover by staking out an official position of neutrality in the war.

Xi visited Putin in Russia last week, raising the prospect Beijing might be ready to provide Moscow with the weapons and ammunition it needs to refill its depleted stockpile. But Xis trip ended without any such announcement.

Days later, Putin announced he would deploy tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, which neighbours Russia and pushes the Kremlins nuclear stockpile closer to NATO territory.

Zelenskyy suggested Putins move was intended to distract from the lack of guarantees he received from China.What does it mean? It means that the visit was not good for Russia.

Zelenskyy recently made a visit near Bakhmut where Ukrainian and Russian forces have been locked for months in a grinding, bloody battle.

While some Western military analysts have suggested the city is not of significant strategic importance, Zelenskyy warned a loss anywhere at this stage in the conflict could put Ukraines hard-fought momentum at risk.

We cant lose the steps because the war is a pie pieces of victories. Small victories, small steps, he said.

Zelenskyys comments were an acknowledgement that losing the seven-month-long battle for Bakhmut the longest of the war so far would be more of a costly political defeat than a tactical one.

He predicted the pressure from a defeat in Bakhmut would come quickly both from the international community and within his own country. Our society will feel tired. Our society will push me to compromise with them.

Zelenskyy made few predictions about the biggest question hanging over the war: How it will end?

He expressed confidence, however, Ukraine will prevail through a series of small victories and small steps against a very big country, big enemy, big army but an army, he said, with small hearts.

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Capture of Bakhmut means Putin will smell weakness: Ukraine - Al Jazeera English