Mediaboss Marketing

Ukraine is facing a battle to persuade its western allies, including the UK, to back its proposal for any peace settlement with Moscow to include multibillion reparations by Russia, in part using seized Russian state and oligarch assets.

Ukraine is lobbying the UN general assembly to adopt a resolution that will become the basis for the creation of an international compensation mechanism that could lead to the seizure of as much as $300bn (260bn) of Russian state assets overseas.

The US Department of Justice said in June the US and its allies have frozen $30bn of Russian elite assets and $300bn of Russian central bank assets held overseas.

Ukraines deputy justice minister, Iryna Mudra, was in London last week to discuss the issue with the Foreign Office after lobbying the Council of Europes council of ministers in Strasbourg alongside Olena Zelenska, the wife of the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

A former banker, Mudra has been at the helm of the detailed legal and political discussions on reparations, holding talks in Germany, Paris and Brussels and with the US treasury assistant secretary, Elizabeth Rosenberg.

At the end of the last meeting in Strasbourg the Council of Europe ministers backed the principle of reparations, but issued a lukewarm statement about Ukraines specific proposals, saying it noted with interest the Ukrainian proposals to establish a comprehensive international compensation mechanism, including, as a first step, an international register of damage. The US treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, has said reparations would be unlawful under current US law.

But Ukraine has become increasingly ambitious that any definition of a military victory must include Russian agreement to reparations, a demand that Moscow would resist and complicate any peace negotiations. The issue is separate to establishing a legal mechanism to hold Russian leaders to account for war crimes.

Those close to the talks on reparations in London came away with an impression that British enthusiasm in principle for the plan is being weighed against the potential legal and property rights issues involved.

It is argued that if Russian central bank assets are appropriated, as opposed simply to being frozen as at present, any western assets held overseas could also become prey to seizure.

State property is protected abroad under the doctrine of state immunity, a principle endorsed in UN articles in 2011, which provides a foreign state with immunity from the jurisdiction of domestic courts, at least in respect of non-commercial activities.

In May, in conjunction with Columbia law school, Ukraine set up an International Claims and Reparations Project including the British barrister Alison Macdonald, the former state department legal adviser Jeremy Sharpe and two Columbia professors, Lori Damrosch and Patrick Pearsall.

They claim there is precedent for seizure of Russian state assets historically, pointing to compensation claims made against Iraq after the invasion of Kuwait, compensation paid by Iran to the US over the embassy hostage crisis, and the recent US seizure of Afghan central bank assets.

Ukraine accepts that at present Russian state assets overseas enjoy sovereign immunity, but believes this can be changed through national legislation, as has occurred in Canada. It says a second process is required to seize assets of Russian companies or oligarchs.

Yellens claim that the US does not have the current legal authority to seize Russian assets is partly because the US is not engaged in armed hostilities with Russia, and the US does not contest Russias lawful ownership of the assets.

Others say the US could deploy the Trading with Enemy Act or the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Reparations have been backed in a joint statement issued by the finance ministers of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia. Liz Truss as foreign secretary expressed support for the idea in principle, but has not repeated the proposal recently.

UK and European sanctions legislation allows states to freeze assets of the Russian central bank and some oligarchs, but does not provide for the permanent seizure, let alone their unilateral transfer to a fund to rebuild Ukraine.

The rest is here:
West wavers on Ukraine proposals to seize Russian assets as reparations - The Guardian

Kyiv, 19 September 2022

On 18 September, 400 000 doses of the Comirnaty mRNA vaccine against COVID-19 developed by Pfizer/BioNTech were delivered to Ukraine under the framework of the COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) Facility. The vaccines will be distributed throughout 23 regions in the country by the Ministry of Health of Ukraine.

Together with our international partners, we continue to deliver vaccines against COVID-19 to Ukraine. With the approach of the autumn/winter period, it is especially important to protect yourself from COVID-19, because as the experience of past years shows, the incidence increases sharply at this time, said Dr Ihor Kuzin, Deputy Minister of Health and Chief State Sanitary Doctor of Ukraine.

Vaccination is an important priority during humanitarian emergencies, and one of UNICEF's key areas of work aimed at the protection and well-being of children and their parents. UNICEF will continue to help Ukraine provide access to immunization and adhere to a cold chain for vaccines, emphasized Mr Murat Sahin, United Nations Childrens Fund (UNICEF) Representative in Ukraine.

Dr Jarno Habicht, WHO Representative in Ukraine, explained, WHO continues to support Ukraines health system through the delivery of vaccines via the COVAX Facility and has trained over 30 000 health workers on the safe and effective use of COVID-19 vaccines, including on the use of the Comirnaty Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.

Dr Habicht added, WHO urges everybody, especially the elderly, people with chronic diseases and those belonging to at-risk groups, to get their primary vaccine series and boosters against COVID-19 and to protect themselves and others as we enter the autumn/winter period.

The Comirnaty vaccine from Pfizer/BioNTech contains messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) molecules that encode the spike protein found on the surface of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. After the vaccine is administered, this mRNA enters the cells of the body and provides them with a kind of instruction on how to create this protein. The immune system recognizes that the protein does not belong to the person and produces antibodies against it. This is how the body learns to protect itself in the case of an encounter with a real SARS-CoV-2 virus.

The vaccine is approved for emergency use by WHO. In Ukraine, the Comirnaty vaccine from Pfizer/BioNTech was registered for use on 22 February 2021.

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation, Ukraine has received COVID-19 vaccines for free through COVAX. COVAX is an international initiative that promotes access to effective and safe vaccines against COVID-19 for all countries. Deliveries on behalf of the initiative will continue to protect as many people as possible in Ukraine from the coronavirus disease.

All adults and children over the age of 12 can be vaccinated against COVID-19 in Ukraine. A booster dose can be taken by all people over the age of 18. The second booster dose of COVID-19 vaccine is available for all people over 60 years old in Ukraine, as well as to those aged 1859 with underlying medical conditions that increase the risk of a severe course of COVID-19.

The European Union, the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (Gavi), UNICEF, the United Kingdom, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and WHO all continue to support Ukraine on COVID-19 vaccination. Future deliveries will ensure that as many people as possible receive protection.

The Comirnaty vaccine delivery was made possible thanks to financial support from USAID.

The rest is here:
400 000 doses of Comirnaty vaccine delivered to Ukraine under COVAX - World Health Organization

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegister

PARIS, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Vladimir Putin's chief envoy on Ukraine told the Russian leader as the war began that he had struck a provisional deal with Kyiv that would satisfy Russia's demand that Ukraine stay out of NATO, but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead with his military campaign, according to three people close to the Russian leadership.

The Ukrainian-born envoy, Dmitry Kozak, told Putin that he believed the deal he had hammered out removed the need for Russia to pursue a large-scale occupation of Ukraine, according to these sources. Kozak's recommendation to Putin to adopt the deal is being reported by Reuters for the first time.

Putin had repeatedly asserted prior to the war that NATO and its military infrastructure were creeping closer to Russia's borders by accepting new members from eastern Europe, and that the alliance was now preparing to bring Ukraine into its orbit too. Putin publicly said that represented an existential threat to Russia, forcing him to react.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegister

But, despite earlier backing the negotiations, Putin made it clear when presented with Kozak's deal that the concessions negotiated by his aide did not go far enough and that he had expanded his objectives to include annexing swathes of Ukrainian territory, the sources said. The upshot: the deal was dropped.

Asked about Reuters findings, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "That has absolutely no relation to reality. No such thing ever happened. It is absolutely incorrect information."

Kozak did not respond to requests for comment sent via the Kremlin.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, said Russia had used the negotiations as a smokescreen to prepare for its invasion, but he did not respond to questions about the substance of the talks nor confirm that a preliminary deal was reached. "Today, we clearly understand that the Russian side has never been interested in a peaceful settlement," Podolyak said.

Two of the three sources said a push to get the deal finalized occurred immediately after Russia's Feb. 24 invasion. Within days, Kozak believed he had Ukraine's agreement to the main terms Russia had been seeking and recommended to Putin that he sign an agreement, the sources said.

"After Feb. 24, Kozak was given carte blanche: they gave him the green light; he got the deal. He brought it back and they told him to clear off. Everything was cancelled. Putin simply changed the plan as he went along," said one of the sources close to the Russian leadership.

The third source - who was told about the events by people who were briefed on the discussions between Kozak and Putin - differed on the timing, saying Kozak had proposed the deal to Putin, and had it rejected, just before the invasion. The sources all requested anonymity to share sensitive internal information.

Moscow's offensive in Ukraine is the largest military campaign in Europe since World War II. It prompted sweeping economic sanctions against Russia and military support for Ukraine from Washington and its Western allies.

Even if Putin had acquiesced to Kozak's plan, it remains uncertain if the war would have ended. Reuters was unable to verify independently that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy or senior officials in his government were committed to the deal.

Kozak, who is 63, has been a loyal lieutenant to Putin since working with him in the 1990s in the St. Petersburg mayor's office.

Kozak was well-placed to negotiate a peace deal because since 2020 Putin had tasked him with conducting talks with Ukrainian counterparts about the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, which has been controlled by Russian-backed separatists following an uprising in 2014. After leading the Russian delegation in talks with Ukrainian officials in Berlin on Feb. 10 brokered by France and Germany Kozak told a late-night news conference that the latest round of those negotiations had ended without a breakthrough.

Kozak also was one of those present when, three days before the invasion, Putin gathered his military and security chiefs and key aides in the Kremlin's Yekaterinsky hall for a meeting of Russia's Security Council.

State television cameras recorded part of the meeting, where Putin laid out plans to give formal recognition to separatist entities in eastern Ukraine.

Once the cameras were ushered out of the vast room with its neo-classical columns and domed ceiling, Kozak spoke out against Russia taking any steps to escalate the situation with Ukraine, said two of the three people close to the Russian leadership, as well as a third person who learned about what happened from people who took part in the meeting.

Another individual interviewed by Reuters, who helped in the post-invasion talks, said discussions fell apart in early March when Ukrainian officials understood Putin was committed to pressing ahead with the large-scale invasion.

Six months on from the start of the war, Kozak remains in his post as Kremlin deputy chief of staff. But he is no longer handling the Ukraine dossier, according to six of the sources who spoke to Reuters.

"From what I can see, Kozak is nowhere to be seen," said one of the six, a source close to the separatist leadership in eastern Ukraine.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegister

Editing by Daniel Flynn

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Read this article:
Exclusive: As war began, Putin rejected a Ukraine peace deal recommended by aide - Reuters

Russia may not have reserves to withstand counter-offensive in Luhansk

Russia is likely to stubbornly defend the Luhansk oblast in eastern Ukraines Donbas region amid Kyivs counteroffensive, but it is unclear if Moscows forces have sufficient reserves or adequate morale to withstand another concerted Ukrainian assault, the UK ministry of defence says.

Its latest intelligence briefing says:

Any substantial loss of territory in Luhansk will unambiguously undermine Russias strategy.

The assessment comes after Ukrainian forces recently recaptured more than 6,000 sq km of territory including the city of Izium, long regarded as the gateway to the Donbas.

Updated at 03.38EDT

Key events

Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature

An honour guard fired a three-gun salute toward cloudy skies as friends and comrades-in-arms gathered in Kyiv to bid farewell to a Russian woman who was killed while fighting on Ukraines side in the war with her native country, Associated Press reports.

Olga Simonova, 34, was remembered for her courage and kindness at a funeral in the Ukrainian capital on Friday.

Simonovas coffin was draped in the blue-and-yellow Ukrainian flag, with a cuddly toy lion on top. Her nom de guerre was Simba, like the main character in the Disney cartoon The Lion King.

Born in the Russian city of Chelyabinsk, Simonova, said she started feeling uncomfortable about her native country after reading about Russias war in Chechnya and its actions in Ukraines eastern Donbas region and Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.

Filled with doubts that she would ever be able to raise the flag of my country, my homeland again, Simonova travelled to Ukraine to join the conflict in the Donbas on the Ukrainian side, first as a volunteer fighter, then a paramedic and ultimately as an enlisted member of the armed forces.

Friends and colleagues said Simonova, who was unmarried and had no children, had recently redeployed from the east to the southern Kherson region, where Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive against Russian forces.

They said she died on September 13, after her vehicle hit a land mine.

The governor of Kharkiv oblast, Oleh Synyehubov, has said an 11-year-old girl was killed in a Russian rocket attack in the city of Chuhuiv, in the eastern Ukrainian region.

Synyehubov said the rockets also caused damage to critical infrastructure, the private sector, an enterprise, and a gas station.

He said on Telegram:

An innocent child died from Russian terror.

Unfortunately, the 11-year-old girl, who was hospitalised in Chuguyev, died from her injuries.

Another woman was injured after the attacks on Chuguiev; the condition of the victim is average.

The report could not be independently verified.

Updated at 09.30EDT

Ukrainian forces have continued to cross the key Oskil River in the Kharkiv region as they try to press on in a counteroffensive targeting Russian-occupied territory, according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.

The institute said in todays report that satellite imagery it examined suggested that Ukrainian forces have crossed over to the east bank of the Oskil in Kupiansk, placing artillery there.

The river, which flows south from Russia into Ukraine, had been a natural break in the newly emerged frontlines since Ukraine launched its push about a week ago, reports Associated Press.

The institute said:

Russian forces are likely too weak to prevent further Ukrainian advances along the entire Oskil River if Ukrainian forces choose to resume offensive operations.

Updated at 09.18EDT

President Zelenskiys senior adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, has responded to reports that Mexico will present a peace plan for Ukraine to the United Nations general assembly next week.

Directing his tweet at Mexican president, Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador, Podolyak said:

Peacemakers who use war as a topic for their own PR are causing only surprise. @lopezobrador_, is your plan to keep millions under occupation, increase the number of mass burials and give Russia time to renew reserves before the next offensive? Then your plan is a plan.

Agence France-Presse reports that the proposal to be put forward by Mexico is for Pope Francis, the UN secretary general, Antnio Guterres, and the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, to form a dialogue and peace committee.

Updated at 08.48EDT

Russias defence ministry today said that its forces have launched strikes on several parts of Ukraine.

It also accused Kyiv of carrying out shelling near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Reuters reports.

Russian forces conducted their strikes in the Kherson, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv and Donetsk regions, according to the ministry.

It said that Ukrainian forces had carried out an unsuccessful offensive near Pravdyne in Kherson.

The radiation situation at Zaporizhzhia, Europes biggest nuclear power plant, remains normal, according to the ministry.

It said two incidents of Ukrainian shelling were recorded near the plant on Saturday.

A spokesperson for Ukraines foreign ministry denied that Ukrainian forces had carried out shelling near the facility.

Both Russia and Ukraine have repeatedly accused each other of shelling the nuclear power plant.

The UN International Atomic Energy Agency passed a resolution on Thursday demanding that Russia end its occupation of the plant.

Updated at 07.17EDT

Pavlo Kyrylenko, the governor of Ukraines eastern Donetsk region, has reported today that two civilians were killed on Friday after Russian shelling in the cities of Bakhmut and Sviatohirsk.

In an update on the operational situation, Kyrylenklo added that overnight in the region passed relatively calmly and there was only isolated shelling on the front line.

On the Telegram, he said:

On September 16, the Russians killed 2 civilians of Donetsk region: in Sviatohirsk and Bakhmut. Another 11 people were injured.

Currently, it is impossible to establish the exact number of victims in Mariupol and Volnovas.

It was not possible to independently verify the report.

Our report on US president, Joe Bidens, first meeting with the family members of Brittney Griner and Paul Whelan:

Joe Biden, met with family members of WNBA star Brittney Griner and another American detained in Russia, Paul Whelan, on Friday, the first face-to-face encounter that the president has had with the relatives.

In a statement after the meetings, which were held separately, White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, said Biden stressed to the families his continued commitment to working through all available avenues to bring Brittney and Paul home safely.

He asked after the well-being of Elizabeth and Cherelle and their respective families during this painful time, Jean-Pierre said. The president appreciated the opportunity to learn more about Brittney and Paul from those who love them most, and acknowledged that every minute they are being held is a minute too long.

Read more: Joe Biden meets with families of Brittney Griner and Paul Whelan

Updated at 06.27EDT

It is just after 1pm in Kyiv. This is what you might have missed:

Russia is likely to stubbornly defend the Luhansk oblast in eastern Ukraines Donbas region amid Kyivs counteroffensive, but it is unclear if Moscows forces have sufficient reserves or adequate morale to withstand another concerted Ukrainian assault, the UK Ministry of Defence says. Its latest intelligence briefing says: Any substantial loss of territory in Luhansk will unambiguously undermine Russias strategy. The assessment comes after Ukrainian forces recently recaptured more than 6,000 sq km of territory including the city of Izium, long regarded as the gateway to the Donbas.

Vladimir Putin has vowed to continue his attack on Ukraine despite Kyivs latest counteroffensive and warned that Moscow could ramp up its strikes on the countrys vital infrastructure if Ukrainian forces target facilities in Russia. Associated Press reported that the Russian president said the liberation of Ukraines entire eastern Donbas region remained Russias main military goal and that he saw no need to revise it. Speaking to reporters on Friday after attending a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, Putin said: We arent in a rush.

Joe Biden has warned Vladimir Putin not to use chemical or tactical nuclear weapons in the war with Ukraine. The US president was asked in an interview with CBS News what he would say to Putin if he was considering using the weapons. Biden said: Dont. Dont. Dont. You will change the face of war unlike anything since World War II.

Ukraines foreign minister has renewed criticism of Germany for failing to send tanks to help fight Russian forces, saying the new weapons pledged by Berlin were not what we need most. Berlin announced on Thursday it would send Kyiv more multiple rocket launchers and Dingo armoured troop-carriers as Ukraines troops carry out a counteroffensive against Moscows forces. But Agence France-Presse reported the foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, as saying Germanys decisions were a mystery and that there was a weapon wall in Berlin that the chancellor, Olaf Scholz, had to tear down.

Mexico will present a peace plan for Ukraine to the United Nations general assembly next week, president Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador says. Agence France-Presse reports that the proposal is for Pope Francis, the UN secretary general, Antnio Guterres, and the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, to form a dialogue and peace committee.

United Nations member states have voted to make an exception to allow Volodymyr Zelenskiy to address next weeks general assembly by video, despite Russian opposition. Of the 193 member states, 101 voted on Friday in favour of allowing the Ukrainian president to present a pre-recorded statement instead of in-person as usually required. Seven members voted against the proposal, including Russia. Nineteen states abstained.

Virtually all the exhumed bodies in Izium had signs of violent death, Ukraines regional administration chief said of the mass burial site discovered after Kyivs forces recaptured the east Ukrainian town. Exhumers had uncovered several bodies with their hands tied behind their backs, and one with a rope around his neck, Oleg Synegubov, head of Kharkiv regional administration, said on Friday. Among the bodies that were exhumed today, 99% showed signs of violent death, he said on social media.

The European Union was deeply shocked at the mass graves discovered by Ukrainian officials in Izium, said the blocs foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell. We condemn these atrocities in the strongest possible terms. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, also condemned what he described as the atrocities committed in Izium, joining growing outrage in western countries over the burial site.

Ukrainian armed forces have hit four areas held by Russian troops, according to the general staff of the Ukrainian armed forces. The military also targeted an unloading station, it said, in turn preventing Russian forces from deploying additional reserves.

Russia has accused Ukraine of carrying out targeted strikes in the cities of Kherson and Luhansk against top local officials who have been collaborating with Moscow. At least five Himars missiles crashed into the central administration building in Kherson, which Russian troops have occupied since March after arriving from Crimea. Video from the scene showed smoke pouring out of the complex. In the eastern city of Luhansk, a pro-Russian prosecutor died with his deputy when their office was blown up. The cause of the explosion was not immediately clear. President Volodymyr Zelenskiys senior adviser, Mikhailo Podolyak, said Ukraine was not behind the blast.

Further south, the Russian-backed separatist authority in Berdiansk also blamed Kyiv for the double murder of a deputy head of the military civil administration and his wife, who headed the citys territorial election commission for the referendum.

In the southern oblast of Zaporizhzhia there were also reports on Friday of a powerful explosion in the Russian-occupied Melitopol, said Ivan Fedorov, mayor of Melitopol. I hope the Russian fascists have suffered losses, among their personnel and equipment, he said. Awaiting good news from the armed forces of Ukraine.

The United States department of defence has announced it is providing an additional $600m in military assistance to Ukraine to meet the countrys critical security and defence needs. In total, the Biden administration has committed about $15.8bn in security aid to Ukraine $15.1bn since the beginning of Russias invasion in February.

Switzerland on Friday aligned itself with the European Union in suspending a 2009 agreement easing rules for Russian citizens to enter the country. The suspension of the agreement does not mean a general visa freeze for Russians but rather they will need to use the ordinary visa procedure to enter Switzerland, the countrys federal council said in a statement. The EU took a similar step earlier, suspending a visa facilitation deal with Russia but stopping short of a wider visa ban in response to Moscows invasion of Ukraine.

Updated at 06.23EDT

Ukraines ministry of defence has given its latest update on Russias total combat losses since the war started in February this year.

The figures show that Vladimir Putins military forces have lost 54,250 troops, 2,202 tanks, and 4,701 armoured combat vehicles.

Ukrainian forces have also downed 251 military jets, 216 helicopters and 911 drones.

The figures could not be independently verified.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the leader of the democratic opposition in Belarus, writes for us that she lost a rigged election in Belarus only the west can help us win freedom from Russia:

Peat bogs span almost 15% of my home country of Belarus. But, in recent times, citizens have grown wary of these dense, acidic wetlands.

Their decaying vegetative matter is a valuable source of fuel and, after decades of being gradually drained and stripped away, the drying marshes that remain pose a significant fire risk. Smouldering underground fires can burn for months unseen before bursting out into the open and wreaking devastation.

Much like these underground peat fires that grow shielded from view, democracy in Belarus is currently burning and President Alexander Lukashenkos corrupt, despotic regime is the decaying marshland, tinder-dry and ripe for destruction.

Read more here: I lost a rigged election in Belarus only the west can help us win freedom from Russia

Read more:
Russia-Ukraine war live news: Putin warns attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure could be ramped up latest updates - The Guardian

The Ukrainian video begins with the Dunkirk beach scene from the film Atonement, the soldiers stirring rendition of Dear Lord and Father of Mankind. Until it transitions to several hundred Ukrainian troops, singing the countrys national anthem in the open air, ahead of last weeks successful Kharkiv offensive.

Life may be trying to imitate art, but in this case there is no clearer demonstration of Ukrainian national morale as the war heads towards the end of its seventh month. The unprovoked attack by their larger neighbour has unleashed a patriotic mobilisation that is having a transformational effect on the battlefield.

There is a stark contrast with the Russian defenders. Faced with a lightning Ukrainian attack that cut off the strategic city of Izium a week ago, some departed in haste, abandoning tanks and other munitions and engaging in looting generators, telephones, and computers they nominally withdrew from the frontline.

Morale, says Jack Watling, a land warfare expert at the Royal United Services Institute military thinktank, is the most important factor for ground forces.

It is not just about how soldiers feel about their prospects relative to the enemy, its also about the experiences they have recently had and how they are anticipating into the future.

On one side is an army Ukraines that considers itself to be fighting for the cause of national liberation. Having beaten off the Russians from Kyiv and pushed them back in Kharkiv, Ukraine increasingly believes it will one day win the war, helped by western intelligence, financing and above all artillery and other fresh munitions.

Morale cannot be detached from the wider military and political context, but it is also an important component to both. Reports from visiting wounded Ukrainian soldiers frequently emphasise that many want, if at all possible, to return to the frontline, and say that the fight against Russia is necessary, despite what has happened to them.

Set against them are the Russian invaders, a mixture of elite soldiers, recent recruits, and lightly armed and sometimes conscripted separatists who are often reluctant to fight outside their home provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, many of whom are exhausted having fought constantly, without rotation, for six-plus months.

While Ukraine has quietly trained large numbers of troops from its initial mobilisation, and replenished them with western-supplied weapons, Russia has done so far less and, the US says, is now buying weapons from North Korea. Winter is coming and how well each side is prepared will be critical.

The Russians have poor morale, poor camaraderie, a lack of confidence in their command from the beginning. Most soldiers were not told a war was starting and many things they were told about Ukrainians were wrong, Watling said. Since then there have been repeated examples of a reluctance by some Russian soldiers to fight, and difficulties Moscow is facing recruiting.

Russia would not be the first great power to be humbled by a smaller but more determined opponent in recent history. The Taliban ultimately regained power in Afghanistan last year because the US no longer had the appetite to fight a long, grinding war against an opponent not ready to concede. War can come down to which side is willing to sustain the most casualties, if a quick victory cannot be obtained.

Even Ukraine and its western supporters, though, have at times been surprised by the national determination to fight. As the war began, US officials feared that Kyiv could fall within days; at the very least western officials expected the city to be encircled. Senior Ukrainians in government have reported their surprise at how diligently orders were carried out, with one telling the Washington Post that since the invasion officials had worked more efficiently than ever.

Ideology, religion and nationalism all help win wars but a sense of justice is important too. Fresh reports that more than 440 bodies have been found at a single burial site near Izium are likely to be the beginning of grim revelations about the reality of Russian occupation and will in turn act as a motivator for troops and others in Ukraine. Already visitors to Ukraine are often given a tour by politicians of the mass burial site in Bucha, north-west of Kyiv, to try to win them to the defenders cause.

Contrast that, again, with the Russian side. This week a video emerged of mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin addressing a large group of prisoners, telling them if you serve six months in his Wagner group you are free, saying the war in Ukraine was a hard war, not even close to the likes of Chechnya and that their help was needed. While some Ukrainian soldiers are being trained in places like the UK, new recruits on the Russian side come from jail.

Such a contrast between motivated and mercenary is likely to accentuate into next year and will play a critical factor as the war runs on, assuming western support for Ukraine continues. I believe we are now on a trajectory for a Russian defeat in Ukraine next year, Watling said.

See original here:
Ukraine depends on morale and Russia on mercenaries. It could decide the war - The Guardian