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Putin says situation extremely difficult in Russian-annexed Ukrainian regions

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting of the Council for Strategic Development and National Projects, via video link at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow, Russia December 15, 2022.

Mikhail Metzel | Sputnik | Reuters

President Vladimir Putin said the situation in four areas of Ukraine that Moscow has declared are part of Russia was "extremely difficult" and ordered security services to step up surveillance to secure its borders and combat new threats.

Putin's comments made on Security Services Day, widely celebrated in Russia, came as Kyiv renewed calls for more weapons after Russian drones hit energy targets and as fears grow that Moscow's ally Belarus could open a new invasion front against Ukraine.

Putin ordered the Federal Security Services (FSB) to step up surveillance of Russian society and the country's borders to combat the "emergence of new threats" from abroad and traitors at home.

In a rare admission of the invasion of Ukraine not going smoothly, Putin cautioned about the difficult situation in Ukraine's regions that Moscow moved to annex in September and ordered the FSB to ensure the "safety" of people living there.

"The situation in the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions is extremely difficult,"Putin said late on Monday in comments translated by Reuters.

Reuters

The International Monetary Fund said on Monday it has approved a four-month program for Ukraine that is aimed at maintaining economic stability following Russia's invasion of the country, and helping promote donor financing.

It said the four-month "Program Monitoring with Board involvement (PMB)" was approved by the IMF's management on Dec. 9 and discussed by its board on Monday, adding that it will help Ukraine implement prudent policies and "catalyze" external financing.

"Large and predictable external financial support will be critical for the success of the authorities' strategy, and frontloaded disbursements would help address strains in early 2023," IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said in a statement.

Gavin Gray, the IMF's mission chief for Ukraine, told reporters that the IMF estimates the country will need between $40 billion and $57 billion in external financing in 2023.

Reuters

Mon, Dec 19 20225:14 PM EST

Soldiers from the Ukrainian armed forces' 10th brigade move a T-72 tank forward as they attempt to repair a track, in the Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine on December 19, 2022.

Sameer Al-doumy | AFP | Getty Images

U.S.-Poland relations are affecting the Russian government's ability to carry out its unprovoked war in Ukraine, U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said.

During a meeting with Anna Moskwa, Polish minister of climate and environment, in Brussels on Monday, Adeyemo praised the nations' combined support for Ukraine and condemnation of Russia through sanctions, export controls and the $60 price cap on Russian seaborne oil devised by the G-7 countries, according to a readout.

The measures have effectively shut down Russian tank factories and weakened its finances and economic outlook, the officials said. Adeyemo also lauded Poland's commitment to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and highlighted each nation's pledge to provide further aid to Ukraine.

Chelsey Cox

Mon, Dec 19 20224:21 PM EST

In this image provided by U.S. Cyber Command, Army Maj. Gen. William Hartman, who leads the U.S. Cyber National Mission Force, speaks during a ceremony at U.S. Cyber Command headquarters at Fort George E. Meade, Md., Monday, Dec. 19, 2022.

U.S. Cyber Command | AP

Russia's war in Ukraine and anti-regime protests in Iran limited both Moscow and Tehran's ability to try to influence or interfere in the recent U.S. midterm elections, a senior American military official said.

U.S. agencies were on high alert before November's vote for potential cyberattacks or foreign influence operations, particularly after adversaries were judged by intelligence agencies to have meddled in the last two presidential elections. But there was little sign of disruption in the midterms.

"I was surprised by the lack of activity we saw from the Russians, the Iranians, or the Chinese," said Army Maj. Gen. William Hartman, who leads the U.S. Cyber National Mission Force, which partners with the National Security Agency in detecting and stopping election intrusions.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been mired in a prolonged war with tens of thousands of casualties since he ordered an invasion of Ukraine in February. And Iran's leaders are waging a bloody crackdown against street protests sparked by the September death of a 22-year-old woman, in one of the largest sustained challenges to their power since the 1979 revolution.

Associated Press

Mon, Dec 19 20223:32 PM EST

Economist Adewale "Wally" Adeyemo reacts as he testifies before the Senate Finance Committee during his confirmation hearing to be Deputy Secretary of the Treasury in the Dirksen Senate Office Building, in Washington, D.C., February 23, 2021.

Jim Lo Scalzo | Reuters

Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo and top officials in Germany renewed their nations' commitment to deprive Russian President Vladimir Putin of a funding source for his war in Ukraine through sanctions and the strategic price cap on Russian oil, according to a readout of the meetings.

Adeyemo congratulated Wolfgang Schmidt, German head of the federal chancellery; Susanne Baumann, state secretary of the federal foreign office; and Udo Philipp, state secretary of the federal ministry for economic affairs and climate action, on Sunday for reaching an agreement with the European Union to provide Ukraine an additional 18 billion euros in assistance and for imposing further sanctions on Russia.

The U.S. Treasury's deputy chief also encouraged joint efforts to hold Russia accountable and to help the Ukrainian government in a time of crisis.

Chelsey Cox

Mon, Dec 19 20222:42 PM EST

Flags of Moldova's breakaway region of Transdniestria and Russia flutter in central Tiraspol, in Moldova's breakaway region of Transdniestria May 5, 2022.

Vladislav Bachev | Reuters

Moldova's spy chief warned of a "very high" risk of a new Russian offensive towards his country's east next year and said Moscow still aimed to secure a land corridor through Ukraine to the breakaway Moldovan region of Transdniestria.

The comments by Alexandru Musteata, head of the Information and Security Service, echo recent messages out of Ukraine where top army generals have warned in recent days of the threat of a major new Russian offensive early next year.

"The question is not whether the Russian Federation will undertake a new advance towards Moldova's territory, but when it will do so," Musteata told the TVR-Moldova television channel.

He said his agency believed Russia was looking at several scenarios to reach Moldova and that it was possible an offensive would be launched in January-February or later in March-April.

Reuters

Mon, Dec 19 20221:50 PM EST

A worker walks past gas pipes that connect a Floating Storage and Regasification Unit ship with the main land in Wilhelmshaven, northern Germany on December 17, 2022. EU energy ministers are wrangling over a proposed price cap on gas.

Michael Sohn | Afp | Getty Images

Moscow lashed out in response to the European Union's natural gas price capping measure, an agreement which the bloc reached after months of negotiations.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the measure was an attack on market pricing and "unacceptable," Reuters reported, citing Russia's Interfax news agency.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine anda subsequentrush by the EU to end its heavy relianceon Russian gashas contributed to an energy crunch that has sent prices sharply higher and led to market volatility.

Natasha Turak

Mon, Dec 19 202212:59 PM EST

European Union energy ministers agreed to a "dynamic" cap on natural gas prices Monday after two months of intense negotiations.

Introducing a limit on gas prices has been controversial for European officials. While many EU member states have argued that the measure is essential to bring down sky-high energy costs for consumers, others have worried about the potential market implications of the policy.

"We did our job, we have the deal. Another mission impossible accomplished," Jozef Sikela, industry minister of the Czech Republic, which holds the presidency of the Council of the EU, said in a press conference.

Energy ministers overcame their differences and agreed to what they're calling a market correction mechanism. It will be automatically activated under two conditions: If front-month gas contracts exceed 180 euros ($191) per megawatt hour on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility Europe's main benchmark for natural gas prices for three working days in a row; and the price is 35 euros higher than a reference price for liquid natural gas on global markets for the same period.

The measure will apply from Feb. 15. When applied, it will set a "dynamic bidding limit" on natural gas futures transactions for 20 working days.

Read the full story here.

Jenni Reid

Mon, Dec 19 202212:54 PM EST

Robert Habeck, Germany's economy and climate minister, left, Olaf Scholz, Germany's chancellor and Christian Lindner, Germany's finance minister, on the Jetty during the inauguration of the Hoegh Esperanza LNG floating storage regasification unit (FSRU) at the Wilhelmshaven LNG Terminal, operated by sniper SE, in Wilhelmshaven, Germany, on Saturday, Dec. 17, 2022. Germany opened its first state-chartered liquefied natural gas vessel as Europes largest economy races to replace Russian gas amid an energy crunch and freezing temperatures. Photographer: Liesa Johannssen/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Liesa Johansson | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Shareholders of German energy company Uniper approved a rescue package for the gas supplier, clearing the way for its nationalization.

The government announced its plan to nationalize Uniper in September, expanding state intervention in the power sector to prevent an energy shortage resulting from Russia's war in Ukraine. The deal built on an initial rescue package agreed to in July and features a capital increase of 8 billion euros ($8.5 billion) that Germany will finance.

As part of the agreement, the government will gain a nearly 99% stake in the energy supplier, which before now was controlled by Finland-based Fortum. The Finnish government has the largest stake in Fortum.

Uniper said its shareholders "approved the proposed capital measures by a large majority" at an extraordinary general meeting on Monday.

The European Commission's approval under state aid law "is expected in the near future," it said.

Associated Press

Mon, Dec 19 20228:58 AM EST

MINSK, BELARUS - DECEMBER 19: (RUSSIA OUT) Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko (R) seen during the welcoming ceremony at the Palace of Independence on December 19, 2022, in Minsk, Belarus.

Contributor | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Russian President Vladimir Putin landed in Minsk for talks with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Russian state media reported Monday afternoon.

The meeting, Putin's first to the Belarusian capital since 2019, comes amid increasing fears that Moscow may be pushing its ally to increase its military involvement in the war.

Speaking to Russian news agencies earlier Monday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called Belarus Russia's "number one ally," but said that suggestions that Moscow wanted to pressure Minsk into joining the conflict were "stupid and unfounded fabrications."

Karen Gilchrist

Mon, Dec 19 20228:49 AM EST

U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is in the Latvian capital of Riga to meet with other members of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), a U.K.-led alliance of European militaries that share tactical knowledge and conduct joint training exercises to increase interoperability.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (L) attends a bilateral meeting with Latvian Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins (R) at the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) countries leaders' meeting in Riga, Latvia December 19, 2022.

Henry Nicholls | AFP | Getty Images

He is set to announce a new artillery package for Ukraine and urge other member nations to continue their support for Ukraine. He will meet British troops in neighboring Estonia later in the day.

Ahead of the visit, Sunak said in a statement: "From the Arctic Circle to the Isle of Wight, the U.K. and our European allies have been in lockstep in our response to the invasion ofUkraine, and we remain steadfast in our ambition for peace in Europe once again ... I know this Joint Expeditionary Force summit will only underline our close friendships and unwavering support for Ukraine."

The JEF includesthe U.K., Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden.

Natasha Turak

Mon, Dec 19 20227:11 AM EST

The Kremlin on Monday rejected suggestions that President Vladimir Putin's visit to Belarus signals a ramping up of Minsk's involvement in the war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the government via a video link at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow, Russia, December 14, 2022.

Sputnik | Reuters

Russia's RIA Novosti news agency reported Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying the reports were "groundless" and "stupid," hours before Putin was due to arrive in the Belarusian capital.

Putin's visit Monday afternoon marks his first to the ex-Soviet ally in more than three years, and comes as Belarus' defense ministry said it had finalized a series of inspections of its armed forces' military preparedness.

Karen Gilchrist

Mon, Dec 19 20226:19 AM EST

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday called on Western leaders meeting in Latvia to provide a wide range of weapons systems in Kyiv's ongoing war with Russia, Reuters reported.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is displayed on a screen as he speaks via video link during a Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) plenary session in Riga, Latvia December 19, 2022.

Henry Nicholls | Afp | Getty Images

"I ask you to increase the possibility of supplying air defense systems to our country, and to help speed up the relevant decisions to be taken by our partners," Zelenskyy asked during his speech via video link to the leaders meeting in Riga.

Western allies, including Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden, are meeting in the Baltic nation for the British-led grouping Monday.

Karen Gilchrist

Mon, Dec 19 20226:16 AM EST

Belarus' defense ministry said Monday it had finalized a series of inspections of its armed forces' military preparedness, signaling a potential shift to a more active role in the conflict, Reuters reported.

Russian ally Belarus, which acted as a staging post for Moscow to launch its invasion ofUkrainein February, has been undertaking a string of military maneuvers over recent weeks.

View post:
Ukraine live war updates: Russian drone attack takes out power supplies ...

Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared that Russia is taking ownership of Ukraines Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europes largest.

Putin signed a decree Wednesday ordering the creation of a state company to manage the facility and said all workers now need Russian permission to work there. Russian troops have occupied the plant for months.

Ukraine condemned the illegal Russian takeover attempt and called on the West to impose sanctions on the Russian state nuclear operator, Rosatom, and for all countries to limit civilian nuclear cooperation with Russia.

Ukraines state nuclear operator, Energoatom, said it considers Putins decree worthless and absurd. It said the plant would continue to be operated by Energoatom as part of the Ukrainian energy system.

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KEY DEVELOPMENTS:

- Putin signs laws annexing 4 Ukrainian regions

- Ukraine nuclear workers recount abuse, threats from Russians

- Experts: Russia finding new ways to spread propaganda videos

EU agrees on price cap for Russian oil over Ukraine war

- Belarus opposition hopeful at Russian setbacks in Ukraine

- Ukraine links World Cup host bid to beating horrors of war

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OTHER DEVELOPMENTS:

WARSAW, Poland - Ukraines prosecutor general says more evidence of torture and unnecessary killings is turning up in areas of the country previously held by Russian forces, including four bodies found in the Kharkiv region with bound or handcuffed hands.

Andriy Kostin also told The Associated Press on the sidelines of a security conference in Polands capital on Wednesday that he had just heard about the bodies. He said the dead people were believed to be civilians but an investigation was needed to determine that.

Two were found in a factory in the city Kupiansk with their hands bound behind their backs, while the other two were discovered handcuffed in the village of Novoplatonivka, according to Kostin.

During public remarks at the Warsaw Security Forum, Kostin said Ukrainian authorities also discovered six cars where 24 civilians were killed near Kupiansk. The victims included 13 children and a pregnant woman who were killed while trying to escape, he said, without specifying when the killings took place.

Kostin also said that Russias proclaimed annexation of four Ukrainian regions means nothing legally but only serves as evidence of Russias intentional policy in the crimes of aggression.

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MADRID, Spain - Leaders of Spain and Germany are meeting in northwestern Spain for a brief summit centering on Europes energy crisis and consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Snchez, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and 15 ministers from their governments are attending the meeting Wednesday in the city of A Corua.

Germanys gas supplies have been cut by its main provider Russia and the country is interested in proposals to build a gas pipeline linking the Iberian peninsula to the rest of Europe. The two will also discuss European fiscal policies and possibly Germanys suggested European anti-missile defense shield.

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MOSCOW - Russian President Vladimir Putin says results of the referendums that Moscow held in four regions of Ukraine before annexing them are valid despite being described as a sham by the West and Kyiv.

The vote results are more than convincing, and it is absolutely transparent and not subject to any doubt, Putin said.

This is objective data on peoples mood, the Russian president said at an event dedicated to the Teachers Day. He added that he himself was pleasantly surprised by the outcome.

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KYIV, Ukraine - Ukrainian officials are reporting further strategic losses for Russia within the territories Moscow has illegally annexed following sham referendums.

Russian troops have started to withdraw from a southern Ukrainian city that was annexed along with the Kharson region though it administratively belongs to the neighboring Mykolaiv area, said Mykolaiv governor Vitaliy Kim on Wednesday.

Kim says officials are seeking to confirm that officers have left Snihurivka, but there are troops still remaining there. Earlier, a Russia-installed official, Yury Barbashov, admitted Ukrainian troops were advancing toward the city but claimed Russia was still in control.

Snihurivka, a city of 12,000, is a strategic railway hub in the Mykolaiv region. The Russians have seized the city in March and then annexed it together with the neighboring Kherson region.

In the eastern Luhansk region, the governor Serhiy Haidai said Wednesday that Ukrainian forces have retaken several localities in the region, which also is among the four illegally annexed by Moscow.

The de-occupation of the Luhansk region has begun, we can talk about it officially - several settlements have been liberated from the Russian army and the invaders, Haidai said in a video statement on Telegram.

The official did not name the recaptured places, but said that the retreating Russian forces are trying to mine everything as much as possible - roads, buildings, everything around.

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BRUSSELS - The head of the European Unions executive arm wants to introduce checks on key EU infrastructure, including energy, after the suspected sabotage of natural-gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday that the damage last week to the Nord Stream pipelines linking Russia and Germany has shown how vulnerable our energy infrastructure is.

She says that a comprehensive plan is needed to ensure the safety of key EU networks, including for data. Von der Leyen also says that satellite surveillance will be used to detect potential threats.

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KYIV, Ukraine - Residents of Ukraines capital of Kyiv have expressed anger and dismay that Russia declared annexations of parts of their country.

Sofia Moroz, 20, says she cant understand how all this is happening. Moroz adds its strange, there is sovereignty, there is a country.

There is a state, borders, ministries, she said. I cant understand why some people decided to change it. Why is it like that? For what?

Olha Sviatka, 19, from Kyiv, says its not logical and its not true. The land is not Russian, so they must not touch it.

A 38-year-old man from Kyiv who identified himself only by his first name, Oleh, says its my land.

They, Russians, need to be thrown out, he says. All of them.

Serhiy Lischuk, 26, agrees: Its our country and we will defend it, and our rights.

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KYIV, Ukraine - The head of Ukraines nuclear power company says he will take over managing the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, after its director was first kidnapped and then released by Russian forces who occupy the facility.

Petro Kotin, the head of Energoatom, said Wednesday he will be running the plant from the capital Kyiv. Ukrainian workers continue to operate the facility, which shut down its last operational reactor last month.

Zaporizhzhia is Europes biggest nuclear plant. Fighting close to the complex has sparked fears of leaks or incidents.

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WARSAW, Poland - Belarus opposition leader says she believes that Russian military setbacks in Ukraine could shake Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenkos hold on power.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said at a security conference in Warsaw on Wednesday that it seems that Russia is about to lose this war, and that, if it does, it will no longer be able to prop up the Belarusian dictator.

Tsikhanouskaya fled to Lithuania after Russian ally Lukashenko claimed victory in August 2020 elections that were viewed in the West as fraudulent, and which many thought she won.

She told the Warsaw Security Forum that hundreds of Belarusian volunteers have supported Ukrainians in their recent liberation of Ukrainian territory, and that 15 have died.

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Researchers at the U.S.-based intelligence firm Nisos say in a new report that Russia has disguised its own propaganda videos so they can be posted on platforms such as Twitter without revealing their true origin.

The report says the videos falsely claim that Ukraine caused civilian deaths attributed to Russian forces or say residents of areas forcibly annexed by Russia welcome their occupiers.

The reported new tactic is Russias latest attempt to circumvent efforts by European governments and tech companies trying to stop Kremlin propaganda and disinformation about the war.

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KYIV, Ukraine - Ukrainian officials have released disturbing evidence and images they say are from areas that Ukrainian forces recently have retaken from Russian troops.

Serhiy Bolvinov, who heads the investigative department of the national police in the eastern Kharkiv region, on Wednesday said authorities are investigating an alleged Russian torture chamber in the village of Pisky-Radkivski.

He posted an image showing a box of what appeared to be precious metal teeth and dentures presumably extracted from those held at the site.

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MOSCOW - Russian-installed authorities of the Kherson region accused Ukrainian forces on Wednesday of carrying out a missile strike on a hotel in the city of Kherson.

Moscow-backed health officials in the region said one person was killed and three more were wounded. Ukrainian officials havent commented on the strike.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed laws on Thursday absorbing Kherson and three other Ukrainian regions occupied by his army into Russia after the Kremlin-orchestrated referendums that Ukraine and the West have rejected as a sham.

Putins attempt to cement the increasingly precarious gains of Russias army come as Ukrainian troops are pressing a counteroffensive to reclaim those very regions.

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MOSCOW - The Kremlin held the door open for expanding areas of Ukraine under Russian control following the absorption of four regions it currently holds.

Speaking in a conference call with reporters, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said certain territories will be reclaimed, and we will keep consulting residents who would be eager to embrace Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed laws absorbing the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine into Russia after the Kremlin-orchestrated referendums that Ukraine and the West have rejected as a sham.

The move came even as Ukrainian forces were pressing a counteroffensive to reclaim those regions.

Asked about Ukraine taking back some territory in the four regions after their declared annexation, Peskov said Russia would reclaim them.

He wouldnt say if Moscow planned to organize votes in any more Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine.

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A former Russian state television journalist who quit after staging an on-air protest against the conflict in Ukraine and who was later charged with spreading false information about Russias armed force says she is no longer abiding by house arrest rules.

Marina Ovsyannikova separately was charged in August for taking part in a street protest and holding a banner reading: (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is a killer, his soldiers are fascists. 352 children have been killed (in Ukraine). How many more children should die for you to stop?

A former state-controlled Channel One employee, Ovsyannikova faces up to 10 years in prison if convicted under a law that penalizes statements against the military and that was enacted shortly after Russian troops moved into Ukraine.

Ovsyannikova was placed under house arrest pending an investigation and trial, but over the weekend her ex-husband claimed she had escaped with her young daughter.

In a Facebook post on Wednesday, Ovsyannikova said that starting from Sept. 30, I refuse to abide by the restrictions imposed on me in the form of house arrest and (I) release myself from it.

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BRUSSELS - European Union countries agreed on Wednesday to impose new sanctions on Russia after it illegally annexed four regions in Ukraine, according to an EU official, including an expected price cap on Russian oil.

No details of the sanctions were immediately released. They will be published as soon as Thursday.

They are expected to include a price cap on Russian oil, curbs on EU exports of aircraft components to the country and limits on Russian steel imports.

The moves build on already unprecedented European sanctions against Russia as a result of its war against Ukraine since February.

EU measures to date include restrictions on energy from Russia, bans on financial transactions with Russian entities including the central bank and asset freezes against more than 1,000 people and 100 organizations. They also include a ban on most Russian oil products from December.

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MOSCOW A Russian-installed official in the Kherson region insisted Wednesday that Ukrainian advances in the region have been halted.

Kirill Stremousov, in comments to the state-run news agency RIA Novosti, said that as of this morning there are no movements by Kyivs forces.

Stremousov vowed that they wont enter (the city of) Kherson, it is impossible. He added that the Russian forces in the region were regrouping in order to gather strength and strike (back.)

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KYIV, Ukraine - Ukraines presidential office says that at least five civilians have been killed and eight have been wounded by the latest Russian shelling.

A statement on Wednesday says Russian troops used six Iranian suicide drones to strike the town of Bila Tserkva in the Kyiv region, leaving one person wounded.

The strikes were the first on the town since March when the Russians retreated from the areas near the Ukrainian capital after a failed attempt to capture it.

Russian forces also shelled areas on the western bank of the Dnieper River, facing the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and in the Donetsk region.

In Sviatohirsk, which was reclaimed by Ukrainian forces, a burial ground for civilians was found and bodies of four civilians were discovered, according to Donetsk Gov. Pavlo Kyrylenko.

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KYIV, Ukraine - Kyiv has dismissed as worthless the laws that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed on Wednesday formalizing the annexation of four Ukrainian regions into Russia.

Original post:
Live Updates: Russia-Ukraine War - Washington Times

October 5, 2022

Hein Goemans, a professor of political science at the University of Rochester, is an expert on international conflictson how they begin and how they may end.

This will shape the rest of the twenty-first century. If Russia loses, or it doesnt get what it wants, it will be a different Russia afterward, Hein Goemans tells the New Yorker. If Russia wins, it will be a different Europe afterward.

He says the hasty withdrawal of Russian troops from northeastern Ukraine is by no means signaling the last stretch of the war. Most people believe that if one side wins a battle or a campaign, peace becomes more likely, says Goemans, author of War and Punishment: The Causes of War Termination and the First World War (Princeton University Press, 2000) and coauthor of Leaders and International Conflict (Cambridge University Press, 2011).

But thats not true. If I fight a war with you and do poorlybut expected to do poorly in the hopes that the next battle will go better for methen Im not going to change my war aims. Only if something unexpected happens, would I change my expectations and my strategy.

Likewise, Putins sham referenda in occupied territories and his calls for a cease-fire do not make peace now any more likely, according to Goemans. Hell propose a deal that the Ukrainians or the West cannot accept; and the Ukrainians will propose a deal that he cannot accept. Thats for domestic consumption in Russia; hes just posturing.

Goemans: No, its not the beginning of the end, but it was unexpected. Individual victories or defeats in a specific battle are often mistakenly read as indicating a change in the likelihood of war termination. Instead, what matters most is whether and how expectations on both sides change. And in this case, clearly Russian expectations of a swift victory have changed. The proof is in the conscription of 300,000 more Russian men, some reportedly without any military training or experience. Russia, I think, has become more pessimistic about getting its original war aims fulfilled. But you dont just kill the enemy and thats that. You need the opponents to change their mind. On the other hand, Ukraine has perhaps become more optimistic. If that is true, the key point to realize is that the gap between the minimal demands may not have decreased at all. While the terms may have shifted in Ukraines favor, both parties may well be as far apart as they had been before.

Hein Goemans.

Goemans: Most people think that if you win a battle or a campaign, peace becomes more likely because the other side is defeated, and they recognize that they are defeated, which makes them more willing to make a deal. But thats not the right way to look at it. A change in expectations is often more important than a single battle or campaign victory. Because if I fight a war or battle with you and do poorlybut expected to do poorly in the hopes that the next battle will go better for methen Im not going to change my war game. Only if something unexpected happened, would I change my expectations and my strategy. Thats the fundamental thing. You could sustain a military defeat and still get a better deal.

A good example is the Yom Kippur War of 1974. The attacking Egyptian army was drastically defeated by the Israelis. Yet the Egyptians got the Sinai back. You askhow is that possible? Well, its because the Egyptian army showed that they were able to cross the Suez Canal and with it all the booby traps and barricades that Israel had built on the Suez Canal. They showed themselves a lot more competent than the Israelis had thought after 1967. So, you have this weird case where militarily Egypt lost, and still, the Egyptians got a better deal in the end, which was clearly not a military outcome. What happened was a change in expectations.

Goemans: No. I still expect the war to last at least another year, maybe two. Both sides still have plans and ideas to test before their expectations are likely to converge. On Putins side, he may still expect Europes unity to crumble and try to force Ukraine to lower its minimum demands, especially if he can freeze them over the winter as a result of the lack of Russian natural gas. Hell propose a deal that the Ukrainians or the West cannot accept; and the Ukrainians will propose a deal that he cannot accept. Thats for domestic consumption in Russia; hes just posturing.

Im not a foreign policy expert, but he probably does this because his massive mobilization is deeply unpopular among the Russian people. He has to find a way to say to his domestic audience something along the lines of, I have to do this. My hands are forced. Im trying honestly to make peace so its not my fault. Its the fault of the evil Ukrainian Nazis.

Ultimately, I think Putins trying to strengthen his bargaining position with the sham referenda and illegal annexations. If it had been a fair referendum under United Nations supervisionthat might have had an effect. But not like this. I meanvoting was held with guards with machine guns at the polling stations and weve seen reports of men with guns at peoples doors, forcing Ukrainians to fill out ballots while being watched. That sends a clear message.

A Ukrainian mechanic test drives a repaired Russian tank in a wooded area outside of Kharkiv, Ukraine, in September. (Getty Images photo / Paula Bronstein)

Goemans: Generally speaking, war provides information and shows the truththe opponents cardsbecause theres no more bluffing. We learn things about our opponent that we wouldnt have known had we not fought. You can see your foes true strength on the battlefield: whose forces are stronger, how good are their tanks, how capable are their generalsall that becomes public knowledge. Thats the prerequisite for peace; you can strike a deal because both sides now know the truth.

Thats the theory, at least. But Ive come to see that intuitive kind of view as insufficient.

We know that some leaders continue fighting for their own survival, against the very interests of their country and their own people. We saw that in Germany in the First and Second World War and also in Japan during World War II. We political scientists hold that opponents fight in order to find that something that makes peace possible. But what really is that? One side must get the other to change its mind. You must get them to agree that making a deal now is better than to continue fighting. I think its the best explanation we have so far. But its not satisfying.

Even if Putin were to be assassinated now, Im not sure that these hawks wouldnt simply escalate the war and press on.

Goemans: Hes boxed himself in. If Putin loses in Ukraine hell fall from power, and likely end up being killed. Leaders in such situations gamble for resurrection, which means they continue with a war, often at greater intensity and brutality, because anything other than victory would mean their own exile or death. It reminds me of the case of Germany in the First World War where just four months into the war Kaiser Wilhelm II and his cabinet concluded that it was unwinnable. Yet, they fought on for another four years. Why? Because they knew that if they lost, they would be overthrown by a revolution. Of course, they were right. Leaders in such unwinnable situations are very dangerous. They are the reason that World War I dragged on much longer than it should have. Thats why Putin is so dangerous.

Goemans: Hes certainly doubling down. Hes painted himself into a corner and cant really make a peace deal. According to classic war-termination theory, three variables have to be consideredinformation, credible commitment, and domestic politics. As long as both sides believe they can win, which clearly they do, and their distrust for each other is growingthink of the recently discovered mass graves and reports of torture by Russian soldiersthere will be no peace.

Putin also has a domestic problem. Originally, he delayed mass mobilization to avoid domestic unrest, against the advice of the political hawks in the Kremlin who want a larger-scale war. Over the past week, more than 200,000 Russians have fled their country to avoid conscription. Even if Putin were to be assassinated now, Im not sure that these hawks wouldnt simply escalate the war and press on. It scares the [expletive] out of me because these people talk about nukes and about attacking Poland and Latvia, Lithuania, and about nuking Paris and London. They are nuts.

Goemans: The hawks in the Kremlin think the war has been fought wrongly or poorly. And in a sense, they are right. The Russian army is just a very weak, poor army. What worries me is that if Russia continues to have to retreat from occupied territory, a small, tactical nuclear strike becomes a real possibilityin an attempt to stop Ukrainian advances. My friend, Branislav Slantchev [a Rochester PhD and now a professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego], has written about this in a recent, terrifying blog post. In that scenario, he said, he expects the Russians to use a nuclear weapon under 1 kiloton, which he says one could fire with artillery or any of the multiple dual-use rockets and missiles the Russians have in their arsenal. Hes got a very good eye and good ears. Hes scared. As am I.

Of course, the United States and the rest of the world would go absolutely bananas. The thing that really struck me a few days ago is that people in Washington have said very clearly, and in very unmistakable terms, that they told Putin and the Kremlin nukes would be unacceptable. So that tells me they are afraid that Russia might actually do it. Otherwise, they wouldnt have to spell it out like that.

(University of Rochester illustration / Michael Osadciw)

Goemans: Well, lets start with the worst-case scenarioif Russia wins and Ukraine is dismembered or wiped out. As a result, the whole security infrastructure in Europe would crumble with direct repercussions for NATO, European Union cohesion, Germany, and the Middle East. All these policies that have led to peaceful cooperation will all be thrown out, creating instability in Europe and affect the United States deeply. And, of course, other would-be dictators would learn from Putins example. A large part of the stability that we saw during the Cold War era was based on the expectation that the situation would be stable. It was stable because we expected it to be stable. But thats clearly no longer the case.

In the best-case scenario Ukraine wins a better deal than before the war. For me that means more defensible borders, which would mean some form of continued Western presence and the arming of Ukraine by the West, along with training and funding. All that would create a much more stable Europe. I hope that the extremists in Russia would have learned a lesson and everybody in Europe would be on their guard with respect to Russia for another generation or two.

Goemans: Putin is gambling with Russias future. On top of the sanctions, the brain drain is tremendous, as is the exodus of young and middle-aged, educated males who have the means and who are worried about being conscripted. Add to that the mounting numbers of dead soldiers: Russia is going to have an acute shortage of men, which will create all kinds of economic and societal problems.

Goemans: Their army is poor, their equipment is rotten, and the sanctions make it impossible to build new equipment, to update their machinery. The best they can hope for? Well, I dont want to advocate for this, of course, but maybe a return to the status quo before February 24, and internationally overseen plebiscites in Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea. Thats the very best they could get. But I dont think the Ukrainians would ever accept plebiscites in Luhansk and Donetsk and the areas possibly going to Russia. The question is, what would the Ukrainians accept for Crimea? I dont know. Ukraines Zelensky has basically said that Ukraine would not give up Crimea so that ties his hands, otherwise people would say, you betrayed us. If Zelensky accepted peace terms right now, hed be out of office in a day.

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When will the war in Ukraine end? And how? - University of Rochester

The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has appeared to admit severe losses in Ukraine, conceding the severity of the Kremlins recent military reversals and insisting Russia would stabilise the situation in four Ukrainian regions Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia it illegally claimed as its own territory last week. We are working on the assumption that the situation in the new territories will stabilise, Putin told Russian teachers during a televised video call on Wednesday.

The UN nuclear agency chief is en route to Kyiv to discuss creating a security zone around Ukraines Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, after Putin ordered his government to take it over. On our way to Kyiv for important meetings, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Rafael Grossi wrote on Twitter, saying the need for a protection zone around the site was more urgent than ever. Grossi is also expected to visit Moscow in the coming days to discuss the situation at the plant. The IAEA said it had learned of plans to restart one reactor at the plant, where all six reactors have been shut down for weeks.

Ukraines forces are pushing their advance in the east and south, forcing Russian troops to retreat under pressure on both fronts. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukraines military had made major, rapid advances against Russian forces in the past week, taking back dozens of towns in regions in the south and east that Russia has declared annexed. Military experts say Russia is at its weakest point, partly because of its decision not to mobilise earlier and partly because of massive losses of troops and equipment.

Ukraine has extended its area of control in the Kherson region by six to 12 miles, according to its militarys southern command. Zelenskiy confirmed the recapture of the villages of Novovoskresenske, Novohryhorivka and Petropavlivka, saying the settlements were liberated from the sham referendum and stabilised, in an address on Wednesday. Kherson regions Moscow-appointed governor, Kirill Stremousov, said the withdrawal was a tactical regrouping to deliver a retaliatory blow. The extent of Russias retreat remains unclear.

Moscows forces have left behind smashed towns once under occupation and, in places, mass burial sites and evidence of torture chambers. In Lyman, which was retaken by Ukrainian forces on Sunday, more than 50 graves have been found, some marked with names, others with numbers, the Kyiv-based outlet Hromadske reported on Wednesday.

The UN has warned Russias claimed annexation of Ukraine territory will only exacerbate human rights violations. Christian Salazar Volkmann, said UN experts had documented a range of violations of the rights to life, liberty and security and warned the situation would only worsen as Russia pushes forward with the annexation of some Ukrainian regions.

Attempts to play down retreats in Ukraine are no longer washing inside Russia with the latest military failures spilling on to local television screens. Why do we advance metre by metre when they advance village by village? Olga Skabeyeva, the countrys top state-TV host, asked a Russia-appointed official in Luhansk in a recent broadcast. Pro-war military bloggers and journalists are also criticising the Kremlin and painting a bleak picture of deteriorating Russian morale. Roman Saponkov, a prominent war correspondent, described his despair over the pullback in Kherson on his Telegram channel: I really dont know what to say to you. The retreat is catastrophic.

Poland says it has asked to have US nuclear weapons based on its territory, amid growing fears that Putin could resort to using nuclear arms in Ukraine. The request from the Polish president, Andrzej Duda, is widely seen as symbolic and appears to be the latest example of nuclear signalling to deter Putin. The White House, however, said it had not received such a request.

The car bombing that killed Darya Dugina, the daughter of prominent Russian political figure Alexander Dugin, was allegedly authorised by elements within the Ukrainian government, according to US intelligence sources who spoke with the New York Times and CNN. The United States took no part in the attack, either by providing intelligence or other assistance, the officials said.

A SpaceX rocket carrying Russian cosmonaut, Anna Kikina, the only female cosmonaut in service, soared into orbit from Florida on Wednesday. The International Space Station crew comprising Kikina, two Americans and a Japanese astronaut flew together in a demonstration of US-Russian teamwork in space despite Ukraine war tensions.

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Russia-Ukraine war latest: what we know on day 225 of the invasion - The Guardian

Ever since Ukraine launched a successful counteroffensive against Russian forces in late August, American officials have tried to claim credit, insisting that U.S. intelligence has been key to Ukraines battlefield victories.

Yet U.S. officials have simultaneously downplayed their intelligence failures in Ukraine especially their glaring mistakes at the outset of the war. When Putin invaded in February, U.S. intelligence officials told the White House that Russia would win in a matter of days by quickly overwhelming the Ukrainian army, according to current and former U.S. intelligence officials, who asked not to be named to discuss sensitive information.

The Central Intelligence Agency was so pessimistic about Ukraines chances that officials told President Joe Biden and other policymakers that the best they could expect was that the remnants of Ukraines defeated forces would mount an insurgency, a guerrilla war against the Russian occupiers. By the time of the February invasion, the CIA was already planning how to provide covert support for a Ukrainian insurgency following a Russian military victory, the officials said.

U.S. intelligence reports at the time predicted that Kyiv would fall quickly, perhaps in a week or two at the most. The predictions spurred the Biden administration to secretly withdraw some key U.S. intelligence assets from Ukraine, including covert former special operations personnel on contract with the CIA, the current and former officials said.Their account was backed up by a Naval officer and a former Navy SEAL, who were aware of the movements and who also asked not to be named because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

The CIA got it completely wrong, said one former senior U.S. intelligence official, who is knowledgeable about what the CIA was reporting when the Russian invasion began. They thought Russia would win right away.

When it became clear that the agencys predictions of a rapid Russian victory had been wrong, the Biden administration sent the clandestine assets that had been pulled out of Ukraine back into the country, the military and intelligence officials said. One U.S. official insisted that the CIA only conducted a partial withdrawal of its assets when the war began, and that the agency never completely left.

Secret U.S. operations inside Ukraine are being conducted under a presidential covert action finding.

Yet clandestine American operations inside Ukraine are now far more extensive than they were early in the war, when U.S. intelligence officials were fearful that Russia would steamroll over the Ukrainian army. There is a much larger presence of both CIA and U.S. special operations personnel and resources in Ukraine than there were at the time of the Russian invasion in February,several current and former intelligence officials told The Intercept.

Secret U.S. operations inside Ukraine are being conducted under a presidential covert action finding, current and former officials said.The finding indicates that the president hasquietly notified certain congressional leaders about the administrations decision to conduct a broad program ofclandestineoperations inside the country. One former special forces officer said that Biden amended a preexisting finding, originally approved during the Obama administration, that was designed to counter malign foreign influence activities.A former CIA officer told The Intercept that Bidens use of the preexisting finding has frustrated some intelligence officials, who believe that U.S. involvement in the Ukraine conflict differs so much from the spirit of the finding that it should merit a new one.A CIA spokesperson declined to comment about whether there is a presidential covert action finding for operations in Ukraine.

The U.S. intelligence communitys stunning failure at the beginning of the war to recognize the fundamental weaknesses in the Russian system mirrors its blindness to the military and economic weaknesses of the Soviet Union in the 1980s, when Washington failed to predict the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. While not all U.S. intelligence analysts underestimated the Ukrainian will to fight, the communitys missteps in Ukraine came just months after American intelligence gravely underestimated how fast the U.S.-backed government in Afghanistan would collapse in 2021, leading to a rapid takeover by the Taliban.

Some senior U.S. intelligence officials have since admitted they were wrong in projecting a quick Russian victory. In March, Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, acknowledged during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing that the CIA didnt do well in terms of predicting the military challenges that [Putin] has encountered with his own military.

The director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, said at the same March hearing that my view was that, based on a variety of factors, that the Ukrainians were not as ready as I thought they should be, therefore I questioned their will to fight, [and] that was a bad assessment on my part.

I think assessing morale, and a will to fight is a very difficult analytical task, he added. We had different inputs from different organizations. And at least from my perspective as director, I did not do as well as I could have.

Yet these admissions mask a more fundamental failure that officials have not fully acknowledged: U.S. intelligence did not recognize the significance of rampant corruption and incompetence in the Putin regime, particularly in both the Russian army and Moscows defense industries, the current and former intelligence officials said. U.S. intelligence missed the impact of corrupt insider dealing and deceit among Putin loyalists in Moscows defense establishment, which has left the Russian army a brittle and hollow shell.

There was no reporting on the corruption in the Russian system, said the former senior intelligence official. They missed it, and ignored any evidence of it.

There was no reporting on the corruption in the Russian system.

Following a string of Russian defeats, even prominent Russian analysts have begun to openly blame the corruption and deceit that plagues the Russian system. On Russian television last weekend, Andrey Gurulyov, the former deputy commander of Russias southern military district and now a member of the Russian Duma, blamed his countrys losses on a system of lies, top to bottom.

Additionally, Putin imposed an invasion plan on the Russian military that was impossible to achieve, one current U.S. official argued. You cant really separate out the issue of Russian military competency from the fact that they were shackled to an impossible plan, which led to poor military preparation, the official said.

Remains of Russian uniforms in the destroyed village of Shandryholove near Lyman, Ukraine, on Oct.3, 2022.

Photo: Wojciech Grzedzinski/Getty Images

The inability of the U.S. intelligence community to recognize the significance of Russian corruption appears to be the result of an over-reliance on technical intelligence. Before the war, high-tech satellites and surveillance systems allowed the U.S. to track the deployment of Russian troops, tanks, and planes, and to eavesdrop on Russian military officials, enabling U.S. intelligence to accurately predict the timing of the invasion. But it would have needed more human spies inside Russia to see that the Russian army and defense industries were deeply corrupt.

Since the war began, a long list of weaknesses in the Russian military and its defense industries have been exposed, symbolized by the so-called jack-in-the-box flaw in Russian tanks. Ukrainian forces quickly learned that one well-placed shot could blow off a Russian tank turret, sending it sky high and killing the entire crew. It became clear that Russian tanks had been designed and built cheaply with ammunition stored openly in a ring inside the turret that can explode when the turret is hit and that crew safety had not been prioritized. In July, Adm. Tony Radakin, Britains military chief, said that Russia had lost almost 1,700 tanks in Ukraine.

Weak leadership, poor training, and low morale have led to huge casualties among Russian rank and file soldiers. In August, the Pentagon estimated that 70,000 to 80,000 Russian troops had been killed or wounded in Ukraine. Ukraine has also suffered huge casualties, but Russian front-line strength has been badly weakened.

Meanwhile, one of the biggest mysteries for U.S. analysts has been Russias failure to gain control of Ukraines skies, despite having a far larger air force. Aircraft design flaws, poor pilot training, and gaps in aircraft maintenance have left Russian aircraft vulnerable to Ukraines air defenses, which have been bolstered with Stinger missiles and other Western air defense systems.

The failure of U.S. intelligence to see the dysfunction in the Russian army and defense industries means that it also didnt foresee Russias ongoing battlefield defeats, which are now having a profound political and social impact on both Putin and Russia. Putin has ordered a partial mobilization to replace heavy battlefield losses,sparking large-scale protests. At least 200,000 people have already fled Russia, including thousands of young men seeking to avoid conscription.

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CIA Thought Putin Would Quickly Conquer Ukraine. Why Did They Get It So Wrong? - The Intercept