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Fighting is raging and Kyiv is relentlessly pressing its allies for more military hardware.

But has Ukraine's long-promised counter offensive against the Russian invasion actually begun?

Analysts say Ukraine has stepped up its activity along the front line, seeking notably to pin Russia down and inflict maximum casualties around the flashpoint town of Bakhmut.

Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelensky has been on a whistlestop tour of European allies, winning pledges from Britain, France and Germany of increased military support while insisting Kyiv needs more.

Western capitals are eager to see the offensive start, in the hope Ukraine can make gains, force Russia to the negotiating table on Kyiv's terms and open a path to ending the conflict.

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Ukraine is seeking to take back control of territory occupied by Russian forces in the wake of the February 2022 invasion and also areas, including Crimea and parts of the Donbas, seized by Russia in 2014.

The battle for Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine has turned into the longest standoff since the Russian invasion.

Ukraine is now saying it is advancing in the area, retaking Russian positions in Bakhmut's suburbs.

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"I lean towards the interpretation that Ukraine is fixing Russian forces in Bakhmut to keep them committed to a particular front while Ukrainian forces probe different areas," said Ivan Kyszcz, a research fellow at the International Centre for Defence and Security in Estonia.

"My preliminary conclusion is that these probing and shaping operations will be ongoing but remain at the tactical level, that is, until the leadership decides the best moment to launch a larger operation," he told AFP.

Moscow's forces switched several weeks ago into a defensive posture, employing a large number of soldiers, sometimes three lines deep, to hold positions.

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Their set-up includes anti-tank ditches, barriers, pre-fabricated lines of defence like the small anti-tank concrete pyramids known as dragon's teeth, and trenches for the men.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive consequently risks being deadly and costly in terms of equipment for Kyiv.

But it appears Ukraine has started a period of tests to measure the effectiveness of this defence.

"Ukraine has conducted local counter-offensives in and around Bakhmut to roll back Russias flanks and gauge defences in the region.

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"Elsewhere, Ukrainian forces are likewise probing Russian defences and reaction behaviours," said Lucas Webber, co-founder and editor of the Militant Wire news site on global military activity.

He said it was "difficult" to say whether the full planned counter-offensive has begun.

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"However, these actions suggest Ukraine is preparing for something much larger.

"These could be shaping operations to put Ukraine in a better position when the real action starts."

He said the full counter-offensive was likely to involve multiple fronts, including operations to take back the parts of the Zaporizhzhiaregion it does not currently control.

That includes the Zaporizhzhia its nuclear power plant which is still occupied by Russian forces, and the south of the region.

Taking Bakhmut in itself would be a blow to Russia.

The city's symbolic importance after such a long battle now outstrips its strategic value, especially given the resources used by the Russian army and the Wagner mercenary group under Yevgeny Prigozhin.

"A successful Ukrainian campaign in the region would frustrate Russia and set Moscow's war efforts back considerably," said Webber.

Further intrigue comes from the increasingly volatile behaviour of Prigozhin, who is becoming ever more scathing in his criticism of the Russian defence ministry and on Friday accused the Russian army of "fleeing" rather than regrouping around Bakhmut.

A report in the Washington Post on Sunday said Prigozhin had maintained contact with Ukrainian intelligence throughout the war and had even in January offered to give Kyiv information on Russian troop positions if Ukraine's commanders withdrew their soldiers from the area around Bakhmut.

Some commentators are now arguing he had crossed a line and risks antagonising Russian President Vladimir Putin but Prigozhin has dismissed the allegations as "laughable".

Pierre Razoux, academic director of the France-based Mediterranean Foundation of Strategic Studies (FMES), said the current situation was characteristic of a phase where both sides were using feints and games to deceive the other ahead of a major operation.

"The preparatory phases of clandestine actions and deceptions and manipulations seems to have been well launched on both sides," he said.

"Each side is probably trying to push the other side into a mistake by convincing them to attack where they seem weakest."

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Has Ukraine's Counter-offensive Actually Begun? - Barron's

A group of six African leaders plans to travel to Russia and Ukraine "as soon as is possible" to help find a resolution to the "devastating" conflict between the two countries, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said Tuesday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky have "agreed to receive the mission and the African heads of state, in both Moscow and Kyiv," Ramaphosa told a press conference in Cape Town.

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A group of six African leaders plans to travel to Russia and Ukraine "as soon as is possible" to help find a resolution to the "devastating" conflict between the two countries, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said Tuesday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky have "agreed to receive the mission and the African heads of state, in both Moscow and Kyiv," Ramaphosa told a press conference in Cape Town.

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African Nations To Send Peace Mission To Ukraine, Russia: Ramaphosa - Barron's

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Russia says 'all targets hit' in overnight missile barrage on Ukraine - The Times of Israel

Kyiv struck by 'exceptionally intense' Russian airstrikes video Ukraine

Sirens sound and residents forced into bomb shelters in one of biggest attacks on capital since invasion

Tue 16 May 2023 03.38 EDT

Ukraine was assessing the damage after Russian forces carried out a massive strike of exceptional intensity on Kyiv overnight, in one of the biggest attacks on the capital since last years invasion.

Emergency sirens woke residents at 2.30am local time and soon afterwards there were loud booms as Ukrainian air defences engaged incoming missiles. Tracer fire lit up the sky and car alarms went off. There were explosions. A further air raid warning sounded at 4am.

Ukraines commander-in-chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, said Kyivs defenders shot down 18 out of 18 Russian rockets and drones. The city had come under an intense and sweeping attack from the north, south and east, featuring missiles fired from air, sea and land, he said.

Air defence batteries successfully intercepted six hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, the most potent long-range weapon in the Kremlins arsenal. They also downed nine cruise missiles, three ballistic missiles, six kamikaze drones and three unmanned aerial vehicles, Ukraines military high command said.

After a sleepless night in which many locals sought refuge in bomb shelters, Kyivs mayor, Vitaliy Klitschko, gave an update on damage. He said there were three victims in the Solomyan district, which was hit by falling rocket debris. Rescuers extinguished blazes after vehicles caught fire.

Debris also fell on the suburbs of Darnytsia and Obolibskyi, he said, as well as on Kyiv zoo. They mayor said no people or animals were hurt and posted footage on the social media channel Telegram of fallen branches. He said the zoo would reopen as usual on Tuesday morning, and urged Kyivites to visit.

Anti-stress measures are now being conducted with the animals. So come along to calm down and to support the residents of Kyiv Zoo! Klitschko wrote.

Monday nights Russian strikes appear to have been a complex attempt to destroy Ukraines new US-made Patriot air defence systems. According to US officials, speaking to CNN, Moscow has been trying to knock out the Patriots, which arrived in the country a few weeks ago.

Volodymyr Zelenskiys government has received at least two Patriot systems, from Washington and Berlin. They have significantly enhanced Ukraines air defences before an expected counter-offensive, and allow Kyiv to intercept more modern Russian missiles such as the Kinzhal.

Writing on Twitter, the UKs ambassador in Kyiv, Dame Melinda Simmons, described the full on attack as pretty intense. She had just returned to Ukraine from the UK, where she accompanied President Zelenskiy, who held talks on Monday with Rishi Sunak in Chequers.

A full on aerial attack on Kyiv last night, pretty intense. Bangs and shaking walls are not an easy night. Hope everyone is ok.

The attacks follow the supply by the government of long-range Storm Shadow missiles, which have a range of more than 250km, and a British pledge to deliver long-range attack drones over the coming months. The Kremlin has described the move as extremely negative, amid evidence that Kyiv is already using Storm Shadows to hit Russian command and control centres away from the frontline.

Ukraines defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, praised the unbelievable success of his air forces in the early hours of Tuesday. Russian terrorists have no chance of prevailing over Ukraine. Their weapons can and should be countered by western ones, he wrote.

Another unbelievable success for the Ukrainian Air Forces! Last night, our sky defenders shot down SIX russian hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and 12 other missiles.

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Ukraine: Russia targets Kyiv with massive overnight airstrike - The Guardian

Ukraine was assessing the damage after Russian forces carried out a massive strike of exceptional intensity on Kyiv overnight, in one of the biggest attacks on the capital since last years invasion.

Ukraines commander-in-chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, said Kyivs defenders shot down 18 out of 18 Russian rockets and drones. The city had came under an intense and sweeping attack from the north, south and east, featuring missiles fired from air, sea and land, he said.

Air defence batteries successfully intercepted six hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, the most potent long-range weapon in the Kremlins arsenal. They also downed nine cruise missiles, three ballistic missiles, six kamikaze drones and three unmanned aerial vehicles, Ukraines military high command said.

The Russian-installed leader in occupied Donetsk, Denis Pushilin, has said that shelling of the region by Ukrainian forces has intensified.

Alexander Bogomaz, the governor of Russias Bryansk region, has claimed on Telegram that overnight air defence shot down a Ukrainian drone over Klintsy. He reported There were no casualties. The balcony of a residential building was damaged.

Tatyana Moskalkova, Russias commissioner for human rights, has said that she has sent more than 100 appeals to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) so far this year after receiving reports of mistreatment against Russian prisoners of war in Ukraine.

Emmanuel Macron has said France is open to training Ukrainian fighter jet pilots in France. In a televised interview on Monday evening, the French president, who dined with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the Elyse on Sunday evening, said the training programmes could start right away, but appeared to rule out sending warplanes to Kyiv.

The wife of German ex-chancellor Gerhard Schrder has been sacked from her role as a trade representative for a German state-owned business agency over her attendance at a Victory Day reception at the Russian embassy in Berlin.

The EU should crack down on India reselling Russian oil into Europe as refined fuels including diesel, the EUs high representative for foreign policy, Josep Borrell, said in an interview with the Financial Times.

British prime minister Rishi Sunak said on Monday Britain would provide Ukraine with hundreds of air defence missiles and further unmanned aerial systems, including new long-range attack drones with a range of more than 200km in the coming months, during a visit by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

The Ukrainian leader said he was also very positive about creating a jets coalition in the war against Russia, with a decision on the provision of western fighter jets expected soon. Sunak said the UK was preparing to open a flight school to train Ukrainian pilots.

The US is seeing more indications that Russia and Iran are expanding an unprecedented defence partnership that will help Moscow prolong its war in Ukraine as well as pose a threat to Irans neighbours. Iran has reportedly provided Russia with one-way attack drones, including more than 400 since august, US national security adviser John Kirby said at a news briefing.

Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, inadvertently confirmed that four military aircraft had been shot down over Russia last week near the borders of Ukraine and Belarus, saying the capital city Minsk had responded by putting its armed forces on high alert. Photos also emerged of Lukashenko today visiting an air force installation on Monday. The president had not been seen since 9 May, causing speculation about his health.

Russias defence ministry claimed for the first time that it had downed a long-range Storm Shadow missile supplied to Ukraine by Britain, which announced last week that it was providing them. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said earlier on Monday that Russia viewed Britains decision to supply the missiles extremely negatively.

Zelenskiy issued an appeal on Monday to Nato to make a positive political decision on Kyivs membership at its July summit. Zelenskiy made his remarks in a video address to the Copenhagen democracy summit. He said that Finland joining Nato showed the strength of security guarantees, and thanked Denmark and other allies for their resolve in assisting Ukraine against Russia.

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Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 447 of the invasion - The Guardian