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Updated 10 April 2023

The documents include detailed accounts of the training being provided to Ukraine by foreign powers

What to make of the dozens of classified US Defence Department documents - maps, charts and photographs - now circulating on the internet?

Complete with timelines and dozens of impenetrable military acronyms, the documents, some of them marked "top secret", paint a detailed picture of the war in Ukraine.

They tell of the casualties suffered on both sides, the military vulnerabilities of each and, crucially, what their relative strengths are likely to be when Ukraine decides to launch its much-anticipated spring offensive.

How real are these printed pages, unfolded and photographed, possibly on someone's dining room table? And what do they tell us, or the Kremlin, that we did not already know?

First things first: this is the biggest leak of secret American information on the war in Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion 14 months ago. Some of the documents are as much as six weeks old, but the implications are huge.

Pentagon officials are quoted as saying the documents are real.

Information on at least one of them appears to have been crudely altered in a later version, but out of a dump of as many as 100 documents, that seems a relatively minor detail.

BBC News has reviewed more than 20 of the documents. They include detailed accounts of the training and equipment being provided to Ukraine as it puts together a dozen new brigades for an offensive that could begin within weeks.

But it notes that "equipment delivery times will impact training and readiness".

Ukrainian soldiers fire a German howitzer Panzerhaubitze 2000

One map includes a "mud-frozen ground timeline", assessing ground conditions across eastern Ukraine as spring progresses.

After a winter that has tested Ukraine's air defences to the limit, there's also a sobering analysis of Kyiv's diminishing air defence capability, as it seeks to balance its limited resources to protect civilians, critical infrastructure and its frontline troops.

Not only do the leaked documents say a lot about the state of Ukraine's military - they also talk about some of Washington's other allies. From Israel to South Korea, the documents reveal internal debates those countries are having about Ukraine and other sensitive issues.

Some of the documents are marked top secret, others to be shared only with America's closest intelligence allies.

How much of this is new?

A lot of the detail here is familiar. There's just a lot more of it, and it's all in one place.

Take casualty figures. It comes as little surprise to learn that the US estimates that between 189,500 and 223,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded.

The equivalent figure for Ukraine's losses - between 124,500 and 131,000 - is also in line with ballpark figures briefed to journalists in recent weeks.

In both cases, the Pentagon says it has "low confidence" in the figures, due to gaps in information, operational security and deliberate attempts, probably by both sides, to mislead.

Tellingly, this is the one place where attempts have been made to alter the documents to make it look as if Ukraine is experiencing the worst casualties.

A version which appeared on a pro-Russian Telegram site took the number of Ukrainians "killed in action" ("16k-17.5k") and put those on the Russian ledger, while flipping the numbers on the Ukrainian side so they read "61k - 71.5k".

All of which brings us to the question of who leaked the documents, and why?

'Here, have some leaked documents'

The story of how the documents found their way from the messaging platform Discord, to 4Chan and Telegram, has already been told by Aric Toler of the investigative open source intelligence group Bellingcat.

Mr Toler says it has not yet been possible to uncover the original source of the leaks, but charts their appearance on a messaging platform popular with gamers in early March.

On 4 March, following an argument about the war in Ukraine on a Discord server frequented by players of the computer game Minecraft, one user wrote "here, have some leaked documents", before posting 10 of them.

It is an unusual, but hardly unique form of leak.

In 2019, ahead of the UK general election, documents relating to US-UK trade relations appeared on Reddit, 4Chan and other sites.

At the time, Reddit said the unredacted documents had originated in Russia.

In another case, last year, players of the online game War Thunder repeatedly posted sensitive military documents, apparently in an effort to win arguments among themselves.

The latest leak is more sensitive, and potentially damaging.

Ukraine has zealously guarded its "operational security" and cannot be happy that such sensitive material has appeared at such a critical moment.

Ukraine's spring offensive could represent a make-or-break moment for the Zelensky government to alter dynamics on the battlefield and set conditions for peace talks later.

In Kyiv, officials have spoken about a possible disinformation campaign by Russia.

Other military bloggers have suggested the opposite: that it is all part of a Western plot to mislead Russian commanders.

Crucially, there is nothing in the documents leaked so far that points to the direction or thrust of Ukraine's counter-offensive.

The Kremlin ought to have a pretty good idea already of the scope of Ukraine's preparations (although Moscow's intelligence failures have been much in evidence throughout the war), but Kyiv needs to keep its enemy guessing about how the campaign will unfold, in order to maximise the chances of success.

Additional reporting by Benedict Garman and Olga Robinson

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Ukraine war: Who leaked top secret US documents - and why? - BBC

Ukraine

Frontline drone operators say Russia is close to countering their most popular models setting off a race to find replacements

Mon 10 Apr 2023 09.07 EDT

Crouching in a freezing basement or risking it all on top of a nine-storey building, the drone squads in the war zone of Bakhmut are ubiquitous. Some are forced to lurk a few hundred metres from, or even on, the frontline. Without them, Ukraines efforts to hold on to the embattled city would be much harder, perhaps impossible.

But the concern for Ukraine, according to three frontline drone operators deployed in the city over the winter, is that the Russians are close to countering the most popular models in operation, those made by the Chinese manufacturer DJI. Theyre adept and they are manufacturing these special jamming systems, said Yaroslav, 31.

So actually, I believe like in three, four months, DJI will not be usable, the drone specialist said. It means a scramble has been going on to look for replacements, prompting countless Ukrainian initiatives in probably the most dynamic aspect of the near 14-month war, a conflict in which drones have so far largely helped defenders.

Yaroslav and Maksym, both from Kharkiv, met on the steps of a recruiting office in the days after the war began. Neither had any military experience, but after moving their families to safety farther west in the country, the two men were recruited into Ukraines 63rd brigade, operating in the summer around Mykolaiv to the south before switching to the hot zone of Bakhmut in December and January.

Their day in Bakhmut would typically start before dawn, where working in a group of two or three, the men would have brought at least a pair of drones to their forward position, most likely a simple DJI Mavic 3 quadcopter (which costs 1,399 in the UK) or perhaps a more advanced DJI Matrice 30T (12,098) and a pile of 20 to 30 batteries, because in winter, the battery life is about half an hour, said Maksym.

To say the work in Bakhmut, scene of the heaviest fighting in the war, is intense is an understatement. Maksym described watching a Russian attack that lasted seven hours, with wave after wave of attackers coming at Ukrainian positions in small groups from the morning until about 3pm, each being sought out from above to give Ukrainian soldiers a chance to stop them.

It is terrifying and dehumanising, watching the violence from overhead and dropping bombs down below. When you are watching movies, you think you must feel something when you are killing people. But in the war, there are no emotions, you just totally do what you need to do, said Yaroslav, although both admitted the three-week break they have had from the frontline had not been long enough.

Drone operators such as Maksym and Yaroslav, embedded within frontline battalions, are asked to conduct reconnaissance, monitoring enemy attacks, or search for higher-value targets such as artillery pieces, although in Bakhmut the Russians only briefly fire these about 3 miles (5km) behind enemy lines. You only have a couple of minutes to catch and destroy them, Yaroslav said. They also help Ukrainian gunners correct their aim, and occasionally use armed drones if required.

Hundreds of war videos filmed from above demonstrate the military capability of drones. They are used as propaganda vehicles by both sides, and in Ukraine it is common for brigades or battalions to have a videographer to help produce such content. Images of the detail of the devastation of Bakhmut illustrate what can be seen.

In theory, DJI drones were banned in Ukraine and Russia by the company nearly a year ago, with DJI saying it abhors any use of our drones to cause harm. But in practice they are bought in large numbers by donors from Europe and the US the Star Wars actor Mark Hamill fronts one fundraising campaign and shipped across the border, because they have proved the most effective for local-level reconnaissance and can be easily modified to carry grenades to bomb from above.

But the drone operators report the DJI craft are gradually becoming less effective, as Russian electronic warfare techniques diminish their range. The environment in Bakhmut, where sight lines are restricted by the remaining buildings, is also often more difficult, as was the winter weather, but a frontline drone squad may only cover a few hundred metres, whereas before their effective range was 10 or 20 times more.

In Mykolaiv we had 15km to cover, and in Bakhmut only 500 metres and even for these 500 metres it was tough to cover with two drones, Yaroslav said, adding that on the southern front in the autumn it was possible to cross 6km (3.7 miles) beyond the frontline, but in Bakhmut 1km maximum, sometimes it was not possible to cross the border.

Combat losses are also considerable, with friendly fire a particular problem, as nervous infantry on the ground know the presence of a drone loitering for a moment above can be a prelude to accurate incoming artillery. Sometimes a drone does not last a day, other times it can be preserved for several months. Operators are considered key targets; Maxsym has shrapnel embedded in his right arm from a shell that landed near him while on duty in Bakhmut.

Yevhen, 38, another drone operator from Kharkiv, is a friend of Maksym and Yaroslav, and like them was deployed in Bakhmut for three months over the winter. Like them, he believes the days of the frontline DJI drone are numbered. Frankly speaking for me, Mavics are already starting to die. In December we were able to fly 3km, so we were not working from the zero point [the frontline]. Now the guys are saying they cannot fly further than 500 metres, he said.

As a result, Yevhen, a computer programmer before the war, has moved away from frontline work to help develop new types of drones to overcome what is likely to be a looming battlefield problem. He is involved in testing a longer-range Ukrainian-made Windhover drone with the countrys army, although the three-pronged six-rotor device has been in development since before the war one of many homegrown drone projects taking place around the country.

Yevhen predicts that replacing DJIs in the frontline will require a mixture of longer-range but more expensive fixed-wing reconnaissance drones operating from further in the rear, such as the Leleka-100, which costs about $50,000 (40,000) and has a range of up to 100km, combined with FPV (first person view) kamikaze drones: light, high-speed racing drones with bombs attached, often controlled via headsets. Ukraine has sought 1,000, although their effectiveness in volume is not yet proven.

Samuel Bendett, a drone expert with the US Center for Naval Analyses, says the likely change in technology could favour Ukraine. The Russians are very concerned that Ukrainians have the advantage when it comes to the FPV drones, worried that a large number will be used to support a Ukrainian counteroffensive, and that Moscow may not have enough pilots or technological know-how to keep up.

This is a technology race not just between the militaries, but also between the volunteers with their own technology arsenals, he added.

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Excerpt from:
Theyre starting to die: fears Ukraines drone supremacy may soon be over - The Guardian

A series of leaked documents, purporting to contain highly classified Pentagon intelligence related to the war in Ukraine and information gathering on close allies of the United States, have emerged online in recent weeks.

The Pentagon has confirmed that the military documents appear to contain sensitive and highly classified material, but the defence department has skirted categorical claims over the authenticity of the documents while repeatedly stressing that at least some have been doctored.

Here is the latest about the leaked documents, which have not been verified.

A leaked classified US military document suggests that 97 special forces personnel from NATO countries were active in Ukraine during February and March of this year.

Media outlets, including the BBC and The Guardian, reported that a document dated March 23, 2023, indicates that more than half of the Western special forces deployed in Ukraine are from the United Kingdom.

Britains Ministry of Defence on Tuesday warned against taking allegations contained in the reported leak of US classified information at face value.

UK special forces conducted training with Ukrainian military forces in 2021. However, the UK government has not publicly disclosed whether special forces have been active in the country since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

According to the leaked documents, Latvia a country with a population of fewer than two million people had 17 personnel, the second highest number of special forces deployed in Ukraine out of the NATO countries. The US and France had 14 and 15 special forces personnel respectively in Ukraine, while the Netherlands has one.

The document reportedly does not state where the allegedly deployed forces are located or what they are doing. It is also unclear whether the personnel numbers have been maintained at this level.

According to another leaked Pentagon document, dated March 2, Serbia, which has refused to sanction Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, agreed to supply arms to Kyiv and may have sent them already.

The document summarises European governments responses to Ukraines requests for military training and lethal aid or weapons. It was labelled NOFORN, which means it was not allowed to be distributed to foreign intelligence services and militaries.

The leak also reveals that Serbia declined to provide training to Ukrainian forces.

Serbias Defence Minister Milos Vucevic on Wednesday dismissed reports that Belgrade agreed to supply arms to Kyiv or has sent them already. Calling the intel untrue, he added: Serbia did not, nor will it be selling weapons to the Ukrainian nor the Russian side, nor to countries surrounding that conflict.

Serbia, which relies on Russia for its energy, has sought to maintain its ambition to join the European Union while keeping its relations with Russia since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.

One leaked document, dated February 17 and obtained by The Washington Post, appeared to show that Egypt planned to supply Russia with rockets and munitions.

According to the leak, Egypts President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is said to have instructed officials to keep production and shipment secret to avoid problems with the West.

Egypt is one of the worlds top recipients of US military aid, receiving $1.3bn in military financing annually.

An unnamed Egyptian state official called the document informational absurdity and said that Egypt follows a balanced policy with all international parties according to the state-affiliated media outlet, Al Qahera News.

Several leaked documents appear to reveal US espionage tactics in relation to the war in Ukraine.

If proven authentic, they show that the US had been monitoring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyys calls with defence and military officials. They also reveal apparent weaknesses in the Ukrainian air defence systems and the size of military battalions.

They also suggest that the US had penetrated the Russian military forces and the Wagner Group, a mercenary organisation, much more than previously understood.

Another purported highly classified Pentagon document reveals Russian operatives were building a closer relationship with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which hosts important US military installations. The UAE rejected the allegations, calling them categorically false.

Other leaks have concerned allegations that South Korean leaders were hesitant to ship artillery shells to Ukraine and that Israels Mossad spy service opposed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahus proposed overhaul of the judiciary.

US intelligence analysts believed a recent military parade in North Korea probably oversells the threat its intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) pose to the United States, according to another leaked document.

The leak may have started on a site called Discord, a social media platform popular with people playing online games.

The US Department of Justice has launched an investigation into the incident. Top US officials acknowledge publicly that they are still trying to find answers.

They were somewhere in the web, and where exactly, and who had access at that point, we dont know. We simply dont know, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said.

The Pentagon has begun an internal review to assess the leaks impact on national security. Officials are also closely monitoring where the leaked slides are being posted and amplified, said Chris Meagher, assistant to the US secretary of defense for public affairs.

Separately, the US Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into how the slides were obtained and leaked.

CIA Director William Burns on Tuesday called the leak deeply unfortunate.

Its something that the US government takes extremely seriously, he said in remarks at Rice University. The Pentagon and the Department of Justice have now launched a quite intense investigation to get to the bottom of this.

Original post:
Leaked Pentagon documents: What are the major takeaways? - Al Jazeera English

13 April 2023, 12:50 BST

Updated 5 hours ago

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Watch: The Pentagon leaks explained in under 60 seconds.

Leaked US documents have revealed that disagreements in Russia's security apparatus led to the defence ministry being accused of undercounting casualties of the war in Ukraine.

Russia has said very little publicly about the scale of its war deaths.

But the files show the FSB security service claimed officials were not counting deaths of the Russian National Guard, Wagner mercenaries and others.

Russia has already warned the leaks may be fake, deliberately dumped by the US.

However, the detail corroborates what was already widely known: that Russia's military and security groups have had frequent disagreements about the handling of the war in Ukraine and that Russia has avoided publicising the numbers of dead and wounded.

The FSB's reported calculation of almost 110,000 casualties by February is still far lower than numbers this week in previously leaked US documents, which estimated Russian losses at between 189,500 and 223,000 casualties, with 35,500-43,000 men killed in action.

Russia's most recent official figure dates back to September last year, when the deaths of 5,937 servicemen were confirmed.

The same document says under-reporting of casualties within the system highlights the military's "continuing reluctance" to convey bad news up the chain of command.

Commentators have often suggested that President Vladimir Putin has been shielded from the extent of Russia's losses on the battlefield, and this assessment appears to be borne out by these communications intercepts, labelled "SI" or Special Intelligence.

Another leaked document labelled top secret refers to an "information war" between the defence ministry and Wagner's mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin in February.

Prigozhin repeatedly accused the military of halting ammunition supplies as his men fought to capture Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine.

The leak quotes ministry officials suggesting that they find "allies of equal status to fight Prigozhin rather than doing so itself".

Tellingly, the assessment in the leak asserts that significant losses suffered by Russia's National Guard, or Rosgvardia, will "probably hinder Moscow's attempts to fully secure all of its annexed territories".

Rosgvardia troops have taken part in combat and helped organise Russia's rigged referendums that led to Mr Putin annexing four Ukrainian regions last September.

According to the Post, the leaker transcribed and then typed up the content of classified documents he had seen on the base, and then posted photos of the documents themselves.

Among the pages of photographed documents, one shows a US assessment of Russia's "grinding campaign of attrition" in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region. It says barring an "unforeseen recovery" by Russian forces, Ukraine will be able to frustrate Moscow's war aims "resulting in a protracted war beyond 2023".

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has suggested that the US may have dumped the documents deliberately.

As a "party to the conflict" he argued that Washington may have sought to "mislead the enemy, that is the Russian Federation".

Wagner mercenaries have died in large numbers in the battle for Bakhmut - these military cadets attend a mercenary's funeral

However, another intriguing leak cites Russia's Main Operations Directorate hailing a successful operation in early February aimed at convincing Ukrainian intelligence of a potential joint Russian-Belarusian offensive from Belarus.

As Russia's military campaign in the east stalled in the run-up to the anniversary of the war, there had been reports of a Russian military build-up in Belarus with the aim of reviving its failed invasion from Belarusian territory the year before.

Kyiv was forced to move troops to defend the area from possible attack, diverting them from the front lines in the east and south.

The leaked document cites a Directorate official recommending two more phases of activity in March "to further mislead Ukrainian forces". The leak makes clear the plans were being sent to Belarus's military chief for approval.

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Ukraine war: Pentagon leaks reveal Russian infighting over death toll - BBC

The war in Ukraine is unlikely to end this year, and no peace talks between Kyiv and the Kremlin are expected in 2023, according to a sensitive U.S. government document that was part of a trove leaked online. The intelligence assessment indicates that such negotiations remain unlikely even if Ukraine manages to retake a substantial amount of territory and inflict significant losses on Russia.

Two U.S. citizens have died in Ukraine, the State Department said Wednesday, without disclosing their identities or the circumstances of their deaths. ABC News reported that they were volunteer fighters who died in separate clashes with Russian forces.

Heres the latest on the war and its ripple effects across the globe.

The intercept, apparently obtained through U.S. eavesdropping on Russias Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), was included in a top-secret summary, dated Feb. 23, of recent Ukraine- and Russia-related products compiled by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. It was among a number of previously unreported documents that The Post obtained from a trove of images of classified files posted on a private server on Discord.

Kate Brady, Susannah George and Serhii Korolchuk contributed to this report.

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Russia-Ukraine war news: Zelensky condemns video of Ukrainian ... - The Washington Post