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A drought in Ukraine could be the weather shock that sparks a grain price rally, says an analyst.

AccuWeather forecasts hot and dry weather developing in Poland, the Baltic States, Belarus and Ukraine this summer with severe impacts on agriculture.

We do expect drought conditions across much of Ukraine, which may damage crops, meteorologist Tyler Roys said in a news release.

This drought, combined with any damage to crops from the cold snaps of late spring, could yield a smaller crop and in turn lead to crop shortages and price increases across the rest of Europe.

A recent rainfall eased current soil moisture deficits in north-central Ukraine, which had re-ceived less than 50 percent of normal rainfall over the previous 90 days, according to the U.S. Department of Agricultures latest Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin.

More rain will be needed to fully ease the impacts of this springs acute dryness, stated the report.

Rainfall in other parts of the country helped maintain good to excellent prospects for the winter wheat crop and improved soil moisture for the planting of summer crops such as soybeans and sunflowers.

In a separate report, the USDA said dryness last fall delayed planting of Ukraines winter wheat crop, but unusually deep snow cover fully replenished subsoil moisture reserves in the spring and protected crops against frost damage.

However, if drought develops over the summer, it could quickly change the fortunes of Ukraines winter and summer crops, and that could be the weather woe grain markets need to ignite a rally. The winter wheat harvest begins in July and corn harvest begins in late September.

Global grain prices currently reflect ideas that there will be ample grain production this year and total supplies will be bolstered by large supplies carried in from the 2016-17 crop year.

To significantly lift prices, a serious cropping problem is needed in a major production region.

Drought in Ukraine has a lot bigger impact on the market than does drought in the United States, said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with INTL FCStone.

Historically, we find a much stronger correlation when there is a weather issue there than if theres a weather issue here.

He has no scientific explanation for why that is the case, but he has a theory. He believes U.S.-based fund managers pay more attention to headlines overseas than ones at home.

They get tired of hearing farmers complain here in North America about the problems, and so they kind of become numb to hearing complaints and it means more when it comes from over there, said Suderman.

Ukraine was the worlds fourth largest exporter of corn and sixth largest exporter of wheat in 2016.

It was also the third largest exporter of rapeseed-canola. Reuters reports that Ukraines rapeseed exports are poised to explode this year. It quotes UkrAgroConsults forecast of a 60 percent rise in 2017-18 to 1.65 million tonnes because of a 70 percent increase in production.

As a result, a significant drought in that country could help lift the prices of a number of key crops. Suderman said a rally would likely start with corn.

If you combine (Ukraines drought) with the reduction in corn area in the United States and in Europe, then that starts to tighten things up a little bit, he said.

World corn ending stocks are expected to be a bloated 223.9 million tonnes at the end of 2016-17, but China holds 45 percent of the supplies and the U.S. another 26 percent.

Outside of those two countries, corn stocks are fairly tight, amounting to a 42-day supply of the crop, said Suderman.

Corn and wheat prices are closely linked, so he believes there would be upward pressure on wheat prices, especially if Ukraines winter wheat crop sustains damage.

Australias wheat crop is also under threat because of El Nino, and damage from a spring blizzard that dumped 250 to 500 millimetres of snow on the U.S. winter wheat crop might be more extensive than originally reported.

One of our people went back to the area late last week, and from the roads things look nice, but you walk in the fields and theres a lot of problems. Its getting worse, said Suderman.

The big funds are heavily net short in the wheat market, meaning they hold a preponderance of short positions that pay off when the market falls. Any weather-related rally that would force the funds to scramble to cover their short positions would exaggerate the rally.

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Forecaster sees drought for Ukraine - Western Producer

On the night of December 8, 2013, demonstrators were gathered in Kievs Bessarabska Square. For two weeks there had been protests across Ukraine against President Viktor Yanukovychs pro-Russian government, and on that wintery Sunday, some dissenters found a symbolic target for their frustration. Primarily aligned with the nationalist Svoboda party, the protestors tore down the 11-foot-tall statue of Vladimir Lenin that had loomed above the square since 1946, and battered it with sledgehammers.

The toppling of the Bessarabska Lenin led to a phenomenon that has become known as Leninopad, or Leninfallthe removal of Lenin statues from around Ukraine. Of course, it wasnt the first time Soviet monuments had been brought low, as statues had been destroyed as early as 1990. But in the following months the intensity increasedso much so that in February 2014 alone, a total of 376 statues were torn down.

Ukrainians had a lot of statues to work with, but their efforts were diligent and comprehensive. In 1990, when Ukraine declared its independence from the Soviet Union, there were 5,500 Lenin statues around the country, more than in any other former Soviet republic. With the countrys 2015 decommunization laws, which outlawed communist symbols including statues, flags, and Soviet-era place names, there was a mandate to remove the last of the Lenin monuments. Today, none still stand. But they havent disappeared.

The afterlife of these statues is the subject of the new photobook from Fuel Publishing, Looking for Lenin. Photographer Niels Ackermann and journalist Sbastien Gobert started the project by searching for the remains of the Bessarabska Square Lenin, and they ended up photographing toppled Lenins across the country. Their goal was not just to see where the physical embodiments of the Soviet past had ended up, but also to discover how Ukrainians felt about the ongoing process of decommunization.

We met scores of people who wanted to discuss the subject, writes Gobert in the book. The name Lenin loosened tongues: for, against, indifferent, nostalgic, vindictiveeveryone had an opinion about Dyadya Vova (Uncle Vlad).

The Lenins that Ackermann and Gobert foundfigures that had previously towered on plinths as a mark of Soviet authoritynow fill car trunks, are hidden in the woods, or are stashed in cleaning rooms. Here is a selection of images of the physical and symbolic remains of Ukraines past.

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The Hunt for Ukraine's Toppled Lenin Statues - Atlas Obscura

Ottawa Citizen

Hepburn: NATO must offer an ultimatum to Russia Get out of Ukraine Ottawa Citizen A picture taken on April 6, 2015, shows Lida Antonova, 79, collecting corn in a field near the village of Petropavlivka. As a tenuous ceasefire brings a lull to Ukraine's yearlong conflict between pro-Russian rebels and Ukrainian troops. NATO must ... and more »

Continued here:
Hepburn: NATO must offer an ultimatum to Russia Get out of Ukraine - Ottawa Citizen

The experiences of Ukraine and Libya have taught other vulnerable countries around the world not to surrender their weapons of mass destruction under pressure from the west, according to Dan Coats, President Trump's director of national intelligence.

"Unfortunately, the lessons learned have been if you have nuclear weapons, never give them up, because it's a deterrent from other actors who may want to interfere in your country," Dan Coats told the Senate Armed Services Committee. "If you don't have them, get them."

Coats referred specifically to Ukraine and Libya as cautionary tales for "rogue" and "marginal" states that might feel vulnerable. Ukraine agreed in 1994 to surrender its Soviet-era nuclear weapons stockpile in exchange for a pledge from the United States, the United Kingdom and Russia that none of the countries would violate Ukrainian sovereignty.

But Russian President Vladimir Putin sent forces to annex Crimea, a region of Ukraine, and backed a separatist-movement in the eastern part of the country in 2014.

"And so we see what's happened in Ukraine probably would not have happened if they had maintained a nuclear weapons capability," Coats said.

And in Libya, the late dictator Moammar Gaddafi finally dismantled his weapons program, after years of sanctions and the George W. Bush-era invasion of Iraq. But Libya was eventually overthrown by western powers in 2011.

He noted that North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un "believes that regime survival is dependent solely on becoming a nuclear power," and that this drives home his point around the world.

"We, unfortunately, tend to be moving in the wrong direction as countries around the world think that gaining nuclear capability is a protection," Coats said. "Or, potentially, it could be used for offensive capabilities."

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Dan Coats: Ukraine, Libya taught other countries to seek nuclear weapons - Washington Examiner

Eurovision 2017, held in Kyiv, may have lacked overt politicisation when it came to the performances showcased on stage, especially in comparison to previous years. But as Roch Dunin-Wsowicz argues, the contest nevertheless delivered a carefully constructed ideological message about Ukraines European aspirations and its pride in its cultural heritage and traditions, while also signalling comradeship with the Slavic world and Eastern Europe. The net result was a quintessential exercise in Eurovisions enduring soft power.

The Eurovision Song Contest is no stranger to political controversy. Envisioned as a means of forging cultural ties between Europes nations in the aftermath of World War II, the contest was closely tied to the idea of European integration taking shape in the 1950s. For a brief period, the Warsaw Pact countries hosted a competing Intervision contest, but it was Eurovision, and the idea behind it, that ultimately prevailed. And it wasnt until the majority of Europes states from the continents east (and from its near periphery) entered the competition that it became the political playground which it is known as today.

Time and again it has provided ample data for better understanding European politics and society. In 2014, Conchita Wursts inherently queer and subversive performance was a sweeping success in the popular vote, but it was shunned by East European juries. As I argued then, this revealed just how complicated the polarisation over LGBTQ+ issues is in the region. Similarly, last years victory of Jamala, singing about Stalinist atrocities in Crimea in 1944, was a triumph of cultural soft power that signalled the significance of collective historical consciousness among the European public.

Culture as soft power

This year, however, the 200+ million audience of Eurovision was spared outright political messaging in the performances, and the pre-contest squabble over Russias participation was largely lost on the public. The political dimension of Eurovision 2017 was, however, noticeable in how Ukraine decided to, yet again, use it as a vehicle of soft power (albeit less overtly than in years past when one of its songs lyrics uncannily sounded like Russia Goodbye).

This year was marked by far more discreet efforts. Firstly, the hosts showcased a country with western-democratic aspirations, putting emphasis on freedom, and on being a tolerant and open country that belongs to the European family of liberal democracies. Secondly, it was pride in Ukraines cultural heritage that was noticeable, which permeated most vividly from the adjoining performers during the contests final and the hosts commentaries. Finally, an even more discreet, almost subliminal, message conveyed was that of the regional Eastern European (and Slavic) embeddedness of Ukraine, and its role in the region being markedly different from Russias.

A European Ukraine

As noted by the Atlantic, Eurovision serves as a stage for countries to express their national pride and affirm their European affiliation. This couldnt be truer of Ukraine, parts of which are currently engulfed in war with Russia. Openness and belonging to Europe were major themes of the three parts of the song contest, as well as its physical surroundings in the nations capital. Most notably, one of the last damaged buildings standing on the famous Maidan square where the 2013 protests, followed by violent clashes, took place, was decorated with a larger-than-life banner stating that Freedom is our religion.

The celebrate diversity theme of this years edition was embodied by altering a Soviet-era monument and trying to put as much daylight as possible between it and a Russia perceived as being intolerant and authoritarian. What once was an arch symbolising Russo-Ukrainian unity, was painted in rainbow colours, much to the dismay of Russia, as well as conservative and nationalist forces within Ukraine who prevented the archs rainbow from being completed.

This western-democratic aspiration is closely linked to the idea and the process of European integration. It derives from a profound sense, shared by a sizeable part of the intellectual elite and decision-making class in the country, that Ukraine is, both historically and politically, at the heart of Europe. After all, it was Ukraines association agreement with the EU that the Maidan protests erupted over and which put the country at odds with Russia, plunging it into a proxy-war that still has no end in sight. Ukraines insistence on its European credentials, including being able to successfully host such a show, is hence part of a soft power effort focused on its geopolitical reorientation. It is, however, only one part of a concerted effort to showcase the country to the outside world.

! (Glory to Ukraine!)

Occidental yearnings among countries of the former Communist East are not a new phenomenon. Almost thirty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, however, such aspirations can no longer be simply assimilationist. Hence, the sense of a Ukrainian national self was very much present throughout Eurovision. Contemporary Ukrainian pop stars at the shows grand final Ruslana, Jamala and Onuka draw heavily on Ukrainian folk music in their performances. This link between popular and Ukrainian folk music is very much appreciated by the domestic public where references to Ukrainian cultural traditions and use of the Ukrainian language are integral to the civic and identity soul-searching that the country has been going through in the past few years.

A sense of pride in the success of Eurovision hosted by Kyiv is seen as validation of the skill and ability of the Ukrainian people and plays a crucial role in the process of crystallising its national self-understanding vis--vis Europe, rather than just emulating its neighbours to the west. In this instance, Eurovision performed a function which for many countries around the world is carried out by large sporting events. There was, however, yet another dimension to Ukraines soft power Eurovision pitch.

Eastern Partnership

Ukraine cannot defy geography, especially its proximity to Russia and its client states. Therefore, the final message communicated in Kivy was how much Ukraine cherishes its Slavic cousins and how it maintains positive relations with its neighbours in the East European region, while highlighting how different it is from Russia. Paired with an emphasis on the countrys western-democratic and European credentials, it was a conscious attempt to demonstrate the distinctions between Ukraine (positioned as pro-Western, liberal, democratic, and tolerant) and Russia (presented as anti-Western, illiberal, autocratic, and intolerant).

This message follows Ukraines current diplomatic efforts. The above was communicated side-by-side with a less explicit signalling of Slavic/regional brotherhood. During the final shows last stage, where points are collected from Europes capitals, almost all Slavic-speaking countries were greeted with the Ukrainian (dobryy vechir), which can be largely understood in the region, while niceties and other linguistic innuendos were also exchanged.

Most importantly, however, 12 points from the Ukrainian jury (representing the countrys elite voice) went to Belarus, which can be seen as a proxy for Russia, absent from the competition. In underlining its Slavic and East European credentials, Ukraine exercised a fine balancing act between Europe and Russia (which claims ownership of the idea of pan-Slavism). It was a deliberate attempt to prove the countrys western-democratic credentials while stressing its regional embeddedness, and its shared cultural and historical heritage.

Despite lacking overt politicisation, this years Eurovision was a quintessential exercise in soft power for Ukraine, a country fighting for the right of self-determination on the world stage. The contest delivered a carefully constructed ideological message about what kind of country Ukraine wants to be: a western-democratic and a European state, which takes pride in its cultural heritage and traditions, and which at the same time is rooted in the Slavic world and supports liberal change in the region of Eastern Europe.

Acknowledgements: The author would like to thank Graham Ackerman for his invaluable support, and reporting from the field in Ukraine, for this blog.

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Note: This article gives the views of theauthor, and not the position of EUROPP European Politics and Policy, nor of the London School of Economics.

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About the author

Roch Dunin-Wsowicz LSEDr Roch Dunin-Wsowicz is a sociologist. He is Managing Editor of LSE Brexit and a Research Officer at the Generation Brexit project at the LSE European Institute. He tweets @RochDW

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The Eurovision in Ukraine was an exercise in soft power - EUROPP - European Politics and Policy (blog)