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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hasnt been a wallflower in calling out Western governments for the weapons his country needs to repel Russian invaders, and has demanded more artillery, rocket launchers and precision weapons, which the U.S. and Western allies eventually provided in large numbers this summer.

But theres been a shift in recent weeks from loudly calling for air defense and fighter jets to quieter negotiations. The campaign to tone it down has been led by Zelenskyys advisers in Kyiv and key interlocutors in Washington, along with friendly advice from the Biden administration itself, which encouraged Kyiv to focus more intently on what it needs right now to push Russian forces out of entrenched positions in Ukraines east and south, the people said.

The change from a public campaign to a private one came as advisers grew concerned that the requests for high-end weapons were a distraction from Kyivs more immediate battlefield needs and concerns that the asks were muddling their tightly-scripted message.

For months after Russias full-scale invasion in late February, Ukrainian leaders asked for Patriot systems and other high-end technologies, putting them at the top of the wish lists sent to Washington and circulated in the press. But big-ticket items have been left off the latest requests for must-need weaponry, which have stuck to requesting more artillery shells and rockets for HIMARS rocket launchers.

Talks about eventually obtaining Patriots, F-16s and Gray Eagles at some point down the road continue at low levels, however, according to three industry sources and people who are in touch with the Kyiv government.

The concerns arent merely that the high-tech systems would be provocative to Moscow, but also that complex maintenance and support for the systems would challenge Ukraine in the middle of the war. In the case of Patriots, their relative scarcity makes supplying Ukraine a challenge. U.S. Army Patriot units are some of the most deployed units in the service, with allies across Europe, the Middle East and Pacific demanding the protection they provide.

There is also a prioritization problem: existing NATO allies want these systems too. As more Eastern European countries ditch their older Russian or even Soviet-era aircraft, theyre looking to the U.S. to begin selling or financing F-16s for their own defense. Already, the delivery of 14 F-16s to Slovakia has been delayed a year to 2024 due to supply chain issues, and Taiwan remains high on the priority list for the jets and their spare parts.

Some of these more complex systems including the F-16s slated for retirement by the U.S. Air Force are likely to arrive after this conflict is over, said a congressional staffer with knowledge of the discussions.

As for the request for Patriot missile batteries, the U.S. has agreed to finance the sale of the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, or NASAMS, for Ukraine. Officials warn that Ukraines capacity to train on and put to use both systems at once would be limited, at best.

The NASAMS and Patriot are different systems and youre training the same air defenders so theres only so much they can do, the staffer said, who like others in this story spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the talks. I think well get there.

The Pentagon recently awarded a $182 million contract to Raytheon Technologies, using Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative funds, for NASAMS. The first two systems will be delivered within the next two months, the Pentagon said Friday.

Ukraines blitz to capture Kharkiv and push Russian troops out of thousands of square miles of Ukrainian territory this month has played to Ukraines strengths quick decision-making on the ground and the effective use of artillery and precision munitions guided in part by timely U.S. intelligence while exposing Russian weaknesses in leadership and logistics that were evident in the Kremlins lunge toward Kyiv in February.

While the Ukrainian advances have been stunning, the war doesnt appear to be close to winding down. Kyiv and the Kremlin have yet to engage in talks to end the conflict, while Ukraine appears intent on pressing its newfound advantages. Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, has shown no sign of backing down from his maximalist position to change the government of Ukraine.

As the artillery and armor-heavy fight continues in the east and south, Russian ballistic missiles continue to target civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, underscoring the need for more modern air defense systems than the handful of Russian-made S-300s Ukraine currently operates.

To get there eventually, U.S. officials continue to discuss whether to send the Patriots to Ukraine as part of a long-term strategy, the people said. Discussions about whether to send the system are in early stages at the Defense Department, and a final decision would be up to President Joe Biden. But the fact that officials are talking about such a move is a major shift from this spring, when U.S. officials rejected the idea.

If the plan moves forward, its likely the U.S. would sign a contract with Raytheon to build additional systems for Kyiv, rather than transferring relatively rare and heavily deployed Patriot batteries in the U.S. inventory.

The Patriot system would be a significant boost in capability for the Ukrainians.

Patriot is a sophisticated, multi-mission system designed to shoot down fixed-wing aircraft, ballistic or cruise missiles. In addition to the United States, 17 countries operate the system, including Romania and Poland.

Its a defensive weapon that would cause Russian pilots to think twice before attacking Ukrainian forces, said Tom Karako, a senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

For it to be used in anger, youve got to have a Russian missile or a Russian aircraft that has done the escalating, has come into range, Karako said. I would say its deescalatory.

Compared to Ukraines existing air and missile defense assets, Patriot is a much newer, longer-range system that would provide Kyiv a critical new capability against Russian attacks, Karako said. Slovakia in April sent Ukraine an old Soviet S-300 missile defense system. The NASAMS being sent by the U.S. can shoot down short-to medium-range missiles.

If the U.S. decides to go the acquisition route, the Ukrainians would not expect delivery of the Patriots for years, a timeline similar to weapons the Biden administration announced in August as part of a $3 billion package that directly funds contracts with the U.S. defense industry.

The defense industry funding will go to the production of artillery rounds, mortar rounds, surface-to-air missile systems; a new counter-drone capability; additional drones; and 24 counter-battery radars. None of the equipment will arrive for months; some will take years. But officials say the investment will allow Ukraine to plan for its own future defense.

Asked about sending Patriots and other new weapons to Ukraine, a DoD spokesperson said the department has no new announcements to make at this time.

Generally speaking, we are working around the clock to fulfill Ukraines priority security assistance requests, delivering weapons from U.S. stocks when they are available, and facilitating the delivery of weapons by Allies and partners when their systems better suit Ukraines needs, said the spokesperson, Lt. Col. Garron Garn.

Patriot would be less escalatory than some other systems that are being considered, a DoD official said, including longer-range rockets such as the Army Tactical Missile System, an offensive weapon that can fly up to 190 miles and reach into Russian territory, and which the White House has said is not being considered.

Talk of supplying the MQ-1C Gray Eagle drone has also been ongoing for months. The drones dont appear any closer to heading overseas than they were this spring, when discussions first became public, though two advisers to the Ukrainian government told POLITICO that talks continue.

There are several concerns, including the potential loss of technology carried on the drone if Russians were to shoot them down, along with uneasiness within the U.S. Air Force which is eager to retire its own fleet of Gray Eagles should the systems prove more survivable on the modern battlefield than expected. The Air Force wants to move the money spent on the aging drones on other modernization priorities.

Whenever more new technologies arrive, it has become clear that Ukraine will increasingly be flooded with NATO-standard equipment as older Russian stockpiles of everything from ammunition to spare parts dries up across Europe, putting Western donors in the position of donating or selling increasingly high-end equipment to Kyiv for decades to come.

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Negotiations on whether to send F-16s and Patriots to Ukraine continue but quietly - POLITICO

Ukraine's success in its counteroffensive against the Russian invasion did not surprise its allies and partners,Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said.

"I think if anyone was surprised, just based on the reports that we've seen in terms of the Russian military's response, it was probably the Russians," he said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters that Ukrainian service members had liberated more than 2,300 square miles of the country from the Russians. The president said Ukrainian troops are pressing Russian forces northeast of Kharkiv and many of the invaders have fled across the border into Russia.

"Certainly, since the beginning of Russia's invasion into Ukraine, we've seen the Ukrainians demonstrate a remarkable adaptability and their ability to use their warfighting capabilities to great effect," Ryder said during a Pentagon news conference. "So, it's not surprising to us that they have pushed as quickly as they have."

The Ukrainian military also took advantage of military opportunities that presented themselves on the battlefield. The Kharkiv counteroffensive is proof of that, the general said.

Western weapons and supplies played a part in the success of the counteroffensive and at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Ramstein Air Base, Germany, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and counterparts from nearly 50 other nations pledged to keep the supply chain moving and increase aid that can be applied to mid-term and long-term Ukrainian defenses, Ryder said.

Russians unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is a challenge to the international rules-based order that has prevented wars among major powers since the end of World War II.

"Secretary Austin and other U.S. government leaders continue to regularly engage with our Ukrainian counterparts," Ryder said during the press conference. "I think last week's meeting at Ramstein is a good example of how seriously we're taking this and that we are constantly engaged in a dialogue to determine what are the needs of our Ukrainian partners, based on the conditions on the ground."

In the counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces are using the equipment they have to great effect, and they have changed the dynamics on the battlefield, the general said. The Ukrainian military also has learned as the conflict has continued. The Ukrainian military adopted the NATO battle tactics, embracing combined arms as a way of war. The Ukrainian military has been able to adapt older, Soviet-era military equipment with these new tactics and outfight the Russians. Ukrainian service members also learned western systems like the M777 howitzers and HIMARS and drones and more and were able to use them with the older systems and integrate them into the battle tactics they are using.

The fifth Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Base last week is indicative of a global effort to support Ukraine and defend the rules-based order. Russia is isolated. This isolation is exemplified by the fact that the only two countries that have supplied arms to Russia are Iran and North Korea.

War is uncertain, but right now, "Ukraine continues to use the aid provided by the United States and other international partners to great effect on the battlefield in their fight to defend their country," Ryder said.

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Ukraine's Success Was a Surprise Only to the Russians - Department of Defense

Soldiers drive a "Marder" infantry fighting vehicle of the German armed forces Bundeswehr during the informative educational practice "Land Operation Exercise 2017" at the military training area in Munster, northern Germany.

Afp Contributor | Afp | Getty Images

Ukraine's relations with Germany have soured this week, with Kyiv asking why Berlin reneged on its promise to provide heavy weaponry.

Tensions over Germany's provision of Leopard tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine or lack thereof came to a head this week when Ukraine's foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, publicly asked why Berlin was backtracking on a pledge made to send these weapons to Ukraine.

"Disappointing signals from Germany while Ukraine needs Leopards and Marders now to liberate people and save them from genocide," Kuleba said on Twitter, adding that there was "not a single rational argument on why these weapons can not be supplied, only abstract fears and excuses."

"What is Berlin afraid of that Kyiv is not?" he added.

The Marder is a German infantry fighting vehicle designed to be used alongside Leopard battle tanks in combat.

Kuleba's comments came as Ukraine launches counterattacks against Russian forces in both the south and northeast of the country. Ukraine's counterattack in the northeast Kharkiv region was hailed as a particular success, with Russian forces withdrawing from towns and villages across the region, almost completely deoccupying it.

A new Leopard 2 A7V heavy battle tank Bundeswehr's 9th Panzer Training Brigade stands during a visit by German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht to the Bundeswehr Army training grounds on February 07, 2022 in Munster, Germany.

Sean Gallup | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Ukraine is largely reliant on Western weapons systems to fight Russian forces. And its allies in the West, NATO members essentially, have individually sent Ukraine a vast range of military hardware.

In April, Germany promised to give Leopard tanks and Marders to Ukraine. Rather than deliver them directly, it proposed a swap scheme. The intention was that NATO members, Poland or Slovakia for example, could send Ukraine older Soviet-era tanks (such as Leopard 1s), and Germany would then replenish their stocks with its own more modern equivalent weapons (such as Leopard 2s).

Germany justified the proposal to send older weapons by saying that Ukraine's forces were used to Soviet-era weapons, and that it should only supply weapons they know how to use.

The only problem with the plan is that this exchange of weapons has largely failed to materialize and Germany is now facing a backlash from critics, both within Germany and externally and not least of all, from a disappointed Ukraine.

One of the arguments is that they are afraid of further escalation but that's an invalid argument because it's like, an escalation to what? It's bad enough as it is.

Yuri Sak

Ukrainian defense ministry official

Yuriy Sak, an advisor to Ukraine's defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, told CNBC on Wednesday that Kyiv doesn't understand Berlin's reluctance to send it weapons that could prove decisive on the battlefield.

"It's difficult to read their minds, but Germany's words, during the last seven months on a number of occasions, have not been matched by their actions. And this is disappointing because there was a moment in time when they made this commitment that they would provide Ukraine with these tanks, it was a moment of hope and promise that we looked forward to," he noted.

"If they're afraid of some nuclear strikes or some other attacks on the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, which could result in major tragedy, it's another story but as far as the situation on the battlefield is concerned, we don't understand the logic behind it. It could be some internal political games as well," he noted.

Ukraine's need for more weapons comes as the war enters what could be a definitive phase in which the balance shifts in Kyiv's favor.

Russia was seen to have been taken by surprise by Ukraine's latest counterattacks, having redeployed some of its most effective fighting units to southern Ukraine after Kyiv signaled over the summer it would launch a counteroffensive to retake Kherson.

After what seemed like a brief period of stunned silence as it took in Ukraine's rapid victories and advances in the northeast, Russian forces have begun their response to those wins, launching an intense series of attacks on energy infrastructure in the northeast, as well as missile strikes on the south.

All the while, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on Ukraine's international allies to continue sending weapons, saying this is when it needs them most to maintain the momentum.

And it's weapons like Germany's Leopard tanks, and Marder infantry fighting vehicles, that Ukraine says could change the balance of the war definitively.

Among Ukraine's NATO allies, Germany the self-professed "leader of Europe" has attracted criticism and even ridicule for its military assistance to Ukraine. Just before Russia launched its invasion on Feb. 24, Germany's offer to send thousands of helmets to Ukraine was met with derision.

Analysts say that criticism is not entirely deserved, however, noting that after the U.S. and U.K., Germany has been one of the biggest donors of weapons to Ukraine.

Stijn Mitzer and Joost Oliemans run a Dutch open-source intelligence defense analysis website and keep a tally of weapons Germany has delivered to Ukraine.

They note on their site that, to date, these deliveries include a number of Gepard SPAAGs (self-propelled anti-aircraft guns), man-portable air defense systems (known as MANPADS, they'reportable surface-to-air missiles), howitzers, and anti-tank weapons, as well as hundreds of vehicles and millions of rounds of ammunition. The German government has also published a list of the military equipment it has sent to Ukraine, right down to 125 pairs of binoculars it has donated.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz observes damages as he visits with French President Emmanuel Macron, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in Kyiv, Ukraine June 16, 2022.

Viacheslav Ratynskyi | Reuters

But when it comes to German tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, Germany has ostensibly dragged its feet, with no decision on the supply of such hardware, let alone deliveries, made despite Ukraine's specific requests from Kuleba and other officials since March. Analysts say Germany's good intentions have just not come to fruition.

"Germany has ... attempted to entice other countries to send their heavy weaponry to Ukraine in a programme known as 'Ringtausch' ('exchange'). Under this policy, countries can receive German armament free of charge in exchange for delivering tanks and infantry fighting vehicles from own stocks to Ukraine," Mitzer and Oliemans noted in an article in early September.

"Although a promising scheme at first, the 'Ringtausch' programme has largely failed to live up to expectations as most countries expect to have their Soviet-era systems replaced by larger numbers of modern weapon systems than what Berlin is currently able (or willing) to offer," they noted.

Pressure has been mounting on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to make a decision on sending such weapons to Ukraine, but there appears to be reluctance at the top to take that decision. On Monday, Germany's defense minister, Christine Lambrecht, said sending more heavy weaponry to Ukraine was "not so simple."

"It's not so simple just to say: I'll just risk that we won't be able to act, the defense of the country, by giving everything away. No, I won't do that," she said. "But we have other possibilities, from industry, with our partners,"Deutsche Welle reported.

CNBC contacted the German Defense Ministry for more comment, and a response to Kuleba's comments, and is yet to receive a response.

Scholz defended Germany's record over weapons deliveries on Wednesday, however, telling reporters that "it can be said that the very weapons that Germany has now provided to Ukraine are decisive to the development of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, and they have also made the difference" in battle.

Germany's reticence over certain arms deliveries has prompted some critics to look for ulterior motives for its reluctance, with some even suggesting that Germany does not like the idea of German tanks facing Russian tanks on the battlefield, as they did in World War II.

"We have no alternative. It is about our independence, about our future, about the fate of the entire Ukrainian people," said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (pictured here on June 16).

Ludovic Marin | Reuters

Rafael Loss, a defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told CNBC Wednesday that the German government has put forward various explanations for not sending the weapons.

"The German government itself has put forward explanations for why not to do so, essentially, since the beginning of Russia's war against Ukraine and even before that. We've heard concerns about the potential for escalation, that Russia might see the transfer of such weapons as some kind of red line."

"We see concerns, mostly from the SPD (Scholz's Social Democratic Party) about the images that German Leopard tanks might produce going toe to toe with Russian tanks in Ukraine. And we've also heard in the past arguments about the tight timeline as a reason for sending the Soviet-produced materiel first. I think that that is a legitimate argument. But it only holds up so long," he said.

"At some point, Ukraine and the countries that will be able to support Ukraine with these types of systems will run out of them, and you can't replace them as easily. So at some point, you need to start thinking about Western supply chains that are based on Western western systems."

Loss characterized Germany's stance toward Ukraine as one of "immense" resistance to sending weapons unilaterally, and that it would prefer some kind of European coalition that jointly sends arms and assistance.

"Over the past six or four months, we've seen an immense reluctance both from the Chancellery and from the Defense Ministry to be proactive, to take the initiative and they've always referred to 'not going it alone,'" Loss said, adding that Germany appeared to want the U.S. to take the lead and for Berlin to follow.

While the pressure is mounting on Berlin to act, Germany's stance is unlikely to change anytime soon, or potentially at all, according to Anna-Carina Hamker, a Europe researcher at political risk analysis firm Eurasia Group. She said in a note Wednesday that Scholz's government a coalition of his Social Democratic Party, Greens and pro-business Free Democrats, uncomfortable bedfellows at the best of times would likely continue to struggle over its Ukraine policy.

"Major adjustments to the government's Ukraine policy are unlikely and the coalition will not significantly step up arms deliveries, despite Ukraine's territorial gains over the last few days," she said in a note.

As such, Ukraine has been left fuming and disappointed by Germany's stance, leaving Kyiv to question Berlin's commitment to supporting it as the war continues into the fall and likely the winter, unless there is a dramatic change of course from the Kremlin.

Ukrainian Defense Ministry official Yuri Sak summed up Kyiv's frustrations toward Germany, noting that "one of the arguments is that they are afraid of further escalation but that's an invalid argument because it's like, an escalation to what? It's bad enough as it is."

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Germany promised Ukraine weapons but hasn't delivered. Now, anger toward Berlin is rising - CNBC

The major city of Kryvyi Rih struggled to contain damage to its water system from Russian missile attacks. The largest city in central Ukraine, with an estimated pre-war population of 650,000, was targeted by eight cruise missiles on Wednesday, officials said. The missile strikes hit the Karachunov reservoir dam. The water pumping station was destroyed. The river broke through the dam and overflowed its banks. Residential buildings are just a few meters away from the river, Ukrainian legislator Inna Sovsun said.

Oleksandr Vilkul, the head of the Krivyi Rih military administration, said in a post on Telegram that 112 homes were flooded but that works to repair the dam on the Inhulets river were under way, and that flooding was receding. He added that water levels had dropped considerably and that there were no casualties.

Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraines foreign minister, called the attack on the Kryvyi Rih hydraulic structures a war crime and an act of terror. Beaten by Ukrainian army on the battlefield, Russian cowards are now at war with our critical infrastructure and civilians, Kuleba said. Russia is a terrorist state and must be recognised as such.

Ukraines president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, was involved in a traffic accident in Kyiv last night, but he is not seriously hurt, his spokesperson said in a Facebook post early on Thursday. Serhii Nykyforov, who did not say when the accident occurred, said Zelenskiys car had collided with a private vehicle. The president was examined by a doctor, no serious injuries were found, he said, adding the accident would be investigated. Medics accompanying Zelenskiy gave the driver of the private car emergency aid and put him in an ambulance, he said.

In his nightly televised address, video of which was posted shortly after the accident, Zelenskiy said he had just returned from the area around Kharkiv, adding that almost the entire region is de-occupied after a lightning counteroffensive to dislodge Russian troops. It was an unprecedented movement of our soldiers the Ukrainians once again managed to do what many thought was impossible, he said. After visiting the liberated city of Izium, Zelenskiy said Ukraines troops had recaptured around 8,000 sq km (3,100 square miles) of territory.

Kirill Stremousov, one of the Russian-imposed leaders of the occupied Kherson region of Ukraine, has claimed that about 120 Ukrainian soldiers were killed while trying to enter Kherson region in the south of Ukraine via the Kinburn Spit.

Should the US decide to supply Kyiv with longer-range missiles, that would cross a red line and the US would then become a party to the conflict, Russias foreign ministry said Thursday. Ukraine is already using US-made high mobility artillery rocket systems just not US-made longer-range missiles.

Rail services will resume between Kharkiv and Balakliia in Kharkiv oblast on Thursday. Workers have already repaired bridges and dozens of damaged tracks after Balakliia was liberated on 8 September.

Ukraine has continued to consolidate control of the newly liberated Kharkiv region, the UK Ministry of Defence says in its latest briefing. The update said some Russian forces appeared to have fled the Ukrainian troops advance in apparent panic, leaving behind key equipment.

Ukraines defence ministry found what its officials believe to be a torture chamber used by Russian troops to hold Ukrainian prisoners in the city of Balakliia. While some Balakliia residents told the Guardian that they had little interaction with the Russian forces, who mostly stayed on edges of the town, and did not experience the scenes of torture and execution seen elsewhere in the country, Serhiy Bolvinov, head of the Kharkiv region national police investigation department, said that 40 people had been detained during the occupation. One resident told the BBC that he was held by Russians in the citys police station for more than 40 days and was tortured with electrocution.

Ukraines state border guard service rescued five teenagers who had been locked in a basement for seven days by Russian troops in the recently liberated city of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region. The teenagers, four girls and a boy aged 15 to 17, are all students of the same educational institute. They said Russian soldiers had locked them in the basement without an explanation. They are safe now, the state border guard service said on Telegram.

Russian president Vladimir Putin, has arrived in Samarkand in Uzbekistan, where he is later expected to meet Chinas Xi Jinping.

The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, arrived in Kyiv Thursday morning. She has tweeted that she will be meeting Zelenskiy and Ukraines prime minister, Denys Shmyhal. On Wednesday, addressing the European parliament in Strasbourg, Von der Leyen insisted Putin will fail and Europe will prevail and said that the EU would stay the course with its sanctions on Russia. The sanctions are here to stay, she said. This is the time for us to show resolve not appeasement.

Germanys economy minister, Robert Habeck, said on Thursday that according to Kyivs own estimates, Ukraine needs 350bn (300bn / $350bn) for reconstruction.

The prospects for peace in Ukraine are currently minimal, the UN secretary general said on Wednesday after a phone conversation with Putin. I have the feeling we are still far away from peace. I would be lying if I would say it could happen soon, Guterres said, adding: I have no illusion; at the present moment the chances of a peace deal are minimal. Even a ceasefire was not in sight, he said.

Kremlin sources are now working to clear Putin of any responsibly of the defeat, instead blaming the loss of almost all of occupied Kharkiv oblast on under-informed military advisers, according to the US-based think-tank Institute of the Study of War. In a statement reported by CNBC, the institute said that Kremlin officials and state media propagandists are extensively discussing the reasons for the Russian defeat in Kharkiv oblast, a marked change from their previous pattern of reporting on exaggerated or fabricated Russian successes with limited detail.

Putin still believes he was right to launch an invasion of Ukraine, the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, said on Wednesday after a 90-minute telephone call with the Russian president. Sadly, I cannot tell you that the impression has grown that it was a mistake to begin this war, Scholz said in a press briefing.

Germany has delivered four more Gepard anti-aircraft guns and 65 refrigerators to Ukraine, the German government announced on Wednesday. The four additional units bring the total number of Gepard units provided by Germany to Ukraine to 24.

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Russia-Ukraine war latest news: what we know on day 204 of the invasion - The Guardian

Like the first green shoot after a devastating bushfire, the blue-and-yellow Ukrainian flag was raised above the burned-out city hall in Izium on Tuesday, just days after the city was recaptured from Russian forces.

It's one of dozens of settlements in Ukraine's north-east Kharkiv region back under Ukrainian control, following lightning advances made by Kyiv's soldiers last weekend.

Abandoned Russian tanks and armoured vehicles point to a chaotic retreat by the occupying force, which Moscow has tried to pass off as a "regroup".

The surprise eastern counteroffensive, planned months in advance, has been hailed as a turning point in the war.

But it comes as a separate assaultdrags on in the south of the country, whileRussia maintains its grip on the sprawling Donbass region.

Whether Ukraine can capitalise on the momentum that saw it claw back thousands of square kilometres relies on several key factors, not least the ongoing support of the West.

It only took a few days for Ukraine to liberate as much territory as Russia had captured over several months, as the occupying force crumbled then withdrew from Izium on Saturday.

Ukraine appears to have borrowed a US military tactic favoured during the Iraq War called a "thunder run".

The daring, high-speed manoeuvre involves a military convoy using heavy weapons and armoured vehicles to plunge into enemy territory and overrun the surprised defending forces.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has since claimed more than 6,000 square kilometres has been reclaimed in the east and the south since the beginning of September.

The situation was so dire in some towns and villages, residents later told reporters, that Russian troops were seen fleeing on stolen bicycles, attempting to disguise themselves in civilian clothes.

"The Russian army these days is demonstrating its best ability to show its back," Mr Zelenskyy said in a video address.

The eastern city of Izium is a logistical hub and the gateway to the Donbass region, which includes the two Russian-controlled separatist states Donetsk and Lugansk.

Winning the city back, combined with Ukraine's other sweeping gains, is perhaps the biggest upset in the war since Russia's dramatic retreat from the capital Kyiv in late March.

But less than a fortnight ago, the battle for the southern port city of Kherson seemed to be Ukraine's main priority.

So, did something change?Or was a southern fake-out always on the cards?

It all began with a war game.

With the deadline of winter looming, the Ukrainian president needed a consequential win to boost his people's morale and shore up future support from the West.

"Slowly Ukraine was starting to lose face and the Western countries were starting to lose faith in the Ukrainian Armed Forces," said Marina Miron, a research fellow in the Defence Studies Department at King's College in London.

"So, first of all, they saw themselves under pressure to deliver something, to deliver some sort of victory.

"Because, before that, all the victories were essentially in the information domain, but you have to show something on the battlefield."

The Ukrainian military devised a plan to reclaim Kherson and Mariupol, both home to prizedports, hoping to turn the tide six months into the war.

During the summer, US and Ukrainian officials teased out the possibility of a broad offensive in the south targeting the strategic cities, which grant access to the Black Sea.

But the exercise, first reported by CNN, suggested such an ambitious blitz was doomed to fail.

The Ukrainians were adamant, though: they needed to move quickly to stop Moscow further exploiting its control of gas supplies to Europe when the chill sets in.

The continent has already seen a dramatic spike in energy prices, with Russia's deputy prime minister now promising to cut gas exports by a third.

Drawing on US intelligence, the Ukrainians planned two smaller offensives.

They hoped to turn their dominance in the information sphere plus an influx of new weaponry into a decisive win on the ground.

For the past several months, the conflict has ground on in the east and the south with neither side seemingly able to break the stalemate.

But, behind the scenes, Ukraine was quietly amassing billions of dollars' worth of foreign military aid and learning how to use it.

Since the war began on February 24, the United States alone has injected some $US14.5 billion ($21.7 billion) into the war, including providing HIMARS, a type of powerful long-range rocket launcher.

The munitions for the GPS-guided systems can strike targets with precision from more than 60 kilometres away.

By some accounts, thefive-tonneHIMARS trucks, the first of which arrived in June, are having an outsized impact on the battlefield because they allow the Ukrainians to hit targets deep behind enemy lines.

But Dr Miron argued US intelligence probably played a weightier role.

"I think the importance of HIMARS was basically, in a tactical sense, it created some parity in terms of artillery," she said.

"However, I don't think it was the catalyst of change in this war."

It now seems likely the two-pronged offensive capturing the east while eyes were on the south was always the plan.

"The Ukrainians are conducting operations that are forcing the Russians to make decisions on the battlefield about where they're going to apply their resources, and how," a senior US military official said during a recent Pentagon briefing.

"So, what we've seen is the Ukrainians applying the capabilities that they have, [including] those that have been provided by the US and our allies in order to again change the dynamics on the battlefield."

But the strategic masterstroke, and the thousands of soldiers needed to pull it off, came from the Ukrainians alone, the official was careful to note.

Taras Berezovets, a former Ukrainian national security adviser turned special forces press officer, went so far as to label the tactic a "big special disinformation operation".

"[Russia] thought it would be in the south and moved their equipment," he told the Guardian.

"Then, instead of the south, the offensive happened where they least expected, and this caused them to panic and flee."

In Russia, President Vladimir Putin has carefully stage-managed the domestic coverage of the invasion of Ukraine.

He still refuses to call it a war, instead euphemistically describing it as a "special military operation", meant to "de-Nazify" Ukraine and liberate its people.

On state television, he has consistently been backed by a cheer squad of presenters parroting Kremlin talking points.

But even some of Mr Putin's most ardent supporters appear shaken by Ukraine's change of fortunes.

The frustration is also starting to seep through online.

"We need to be honest, the Ukrainian command has outplayed us here," said Yuri Podolya, a pro-Kremlin military blogger with 2.2 million followers on Telegram.

Mr Podolya called the recent losses "large" and said the Russian Ministry of Defence had failed to rectify "problems identified by the first months of the war".

On the world stage, Russia is also becoming increasingly isolated, even from its most powerful allies.

In separate meetings with Mr Putin this week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared to tacitly rebuke the invasion of Ukraine, while China's leader Xi Jinping made no mention of it at all.

"I know that today's era is not an era of war," Mr Modi said.

Mr Putin has held power in Russia since 1999, both as president and prime minister.

His potential electoral opposition has been sidelined or jailed but he is acutely sensitive to public sentiment.

He's also spent roughly two decades building up Russia's modern military, once ranked among the world's best, which now appears to be in tatters.

In a statement, the Ministry of Defence sought to frame Russia's hasty retreat as a pre-planned decision to regroup and redeploy.

But it has already lashed out with missile strikes on critical infrastructure, plunging parts of the country into darkness and flooding Mr Zelenskyy's hometown.

"Strength is the only source of Putin's legitimacy," Abbas Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for Mr Putin, told The New York Times.

"And in a situation in which it turns out that he has no strength, his legitimacy will start dropping toward zero."

The Ukrainians are hoping the West will help them solidify their gains in what remains contested territory, while trying to rebuild cities devastated by months of Russian occupation.

After surveying the destruction left behind in Izium, including mass graves, Mr Zelenskyy has also called on foreign governments to investigate alleged human rights abuses.

"Earlier, when we looked up, we always looked for the blue sky," he wrote in a statement.

"Today, when we look up, we are looking for only one thing the flag of Ukraine."

His foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, also condemned the recent missile strikes on water systems as "a war crime" and an "act of terror".

It remains unclear how far Russia will be willing to go to halt Ukraine's momentum.

But some fear cyber, chemical and even nuclear attacks may be on the cards.

So far, the European Union's top official, Ursula von der Leyen, has been a sympathetic ear.

"It's absolutely vital and necessary to support Ukraine with the military equipment they need to defend themselves," she said.

But the US has rebuffed a request to provide more HIMARS munitions.

"I'm not sure that Ukraine will get the weapons it's requesting because the West [is] not interested in having Ukraine so powerful that it can potentially launch attacks deep inside Russia, because then everything would spin out of control," Dr Miron said.

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Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine is going so badly even loyal bloggers are turning on him - ABC News