Archive for the ‘Ukraine’ Category

U.S. is weighing all options including ‘massive’ sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine, ambassador to NATO says – CNBC

U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith said the U.S. and its allies are continuing to signal to Russia that they are ready to respond to an escalation, including by imposing "massive economic sanctions and consequences."

"We're looking at all options," she told CNBC's Hadley Gamble on Thursday.

In response to a question on whether sanctions are limited in their effectiveness, Smith said there isn't "any indication yet" that Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided what to do with the troops that he has deployed to the border with Ukraine.

"We're trying to sharpen the choice for President Putin as he weighs his options here," she added.

The growing military presence at the border has sparked fears of a war between Moscow and Kyiv. Negotiations with the U.S. and other Western powers have not yielded much progress, and the possibility of punishing sanctions has not pressured Russia into de-escalating the situation.

The former president of Ukraine,Petro Poroshenko, previously told CNBC that sanctions on Nord Stream 2 would make Russia weaker and discourage Putin from attacking. Nord Stream 2 is a pipeline project that would bypass Ukraine while carrying gas from Russia to Europe.

The Kremlin has denied it is planning to invade Ukraine, in what would be a repeat of its illegal annexationand occupation of Crimea in 2014.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen on a screen as he speaks during his annual press conference at the Moscow Manege on December 23, 2021, in Moscow, Russia.

Mikhail Svetlov | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Separately, Smith said that the decision to send 3,000 U.S. troops closer to Ukraine was made partly to reassure allies in the region and to serve as a deterrent.

Asked if that could be seen as provocative to Russia, she pointed out that the numbers differ greatly, estimating that around 127,000 troops are stationed around Ukraine's border.

"I really think we're comparing apples and oranges," she said, adding that U.S. troops are not going into Ukraine and will not be permanently moved to central and eastern Europe.

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U.S. is weighing all options including 'massive' sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine, ambassador to NATO says - CNBC

Senators worry Russia will invade Ukraine before they finalize sanctions bill – POLITICO

Senate Foreign Relations Chair Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) and his GOP counterpart atop the panel, Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho, have spent the last two weeks in high gear hammering out a a legislative package that attempts to reconcile their parties diverging pitches for how best to deter a Russian invasion of its neighbor and send a unified message to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Democrats and the White House have proposed a series of crushing economic sanctions that would take effect only after an invasion, as a way to lay out to Putin the cost of an incursion. But Republicans have argued for imposing some sanctions on the front end of a possible invasion, and ramping them up if necessary.

Negotiators have settled on a plan that punishes Russia for the destabilizing actions it has already taken, including cyberattacks targeting Ukraine as well as false-flag operations to create a pretext for an invasion. A final agreement remains up in the air, however, amid some debate over the sanctions scope and the amount of flexibility to give Biden.

Lawmakers are also trying to bridge disagreements over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which became a contentious topic in Washington after the Biden administration declined to impose sanctions on the Russia-to-Germany natural gas pipeline.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said that after meeting with Menendez on Wednesday night, Im pretty confident were going to get there. He told POLITICO that the emerging agreement would include waiver authorities for the president effectively allowing Biden to decide whether to impose the sanctions.

What you need is the president to have the flexibility to target different individuals, different institutions, Armed Services Chair Jack Reed (D-R.I.) said.

That might not be enough for some Republicans who have advocated for mandatory sanctions. Its also unclear whether the White House will ultimately back the bipartisan proposal, though Menendez, the lead Democratic negotiators, said the Biden administration has given him encouragement on the effort.

This is one of those issues in which you dont have the luxury of time. You want to make an impact, the sooner the better, he said after Thursdays session with Bidens national-security deputies. Collectively, what I heard only makes the case that this is more pressing, more timely, and that time in this regard if we want to be preventative is of the essence.

When asked about the White Houses support, Menendez responded: I dont think what were adding is in any way pejorative. He added that it would not be far afield from his initial proposal, which 40 Senate Democrats and the White House backed.

Risch, for his part, said on Thursday that he and Menendez made significant progress yesterday and overnight, and other important parties have been brought into the discussions.

Other provisions in the compromise package such as additional lethal aid for Ukraine and the creation of a World War II-style lend-lease program have broad bipartisan support and are expected to be included in the final package. The latter would allow the U.S. to send weapons and supplies to Ukraine with the promise of repayment at a later date.

Thursdays briefing for all senators came one day after Biden deployed around 3,000 U.S. troops to Eastern Europe as a way to shore up NATOs defenses. And it came just hours after the White House disclosed a Kremlin-orchestrated false-flag operation involving a graphic video depicting a fabricated attack on Russians.

The briefers included Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Mark Milley and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, among others.

For now, some lawmakers remain optimistic that the closed-door session will spur a final agreement on legislation.

Its encouraging at these moments to see Republicans and Democrats behind closed doors set aside their differences, work together to learn as much as they can. And you see people moving closer together with some of their approaches, Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) said. To the extent there are disagreements, you start to see those narrow during those sessions.

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Senators worry Russia will invade Ukraine before they finalize sanctions bill - POLITICO

Turkey and Ukraine to coproduce TB2 drones – DefenseNews.com

ANKARA, Turkey NATO member Turkey and its Black Sea ally Ukraine have agreed to coproduce an increasingly popular Turkish-made drone at a production site in Ukraine.

A top Ukrainian official said Feb. 3 that the two countries would sign a coproduction agreement which would be ratified by parliaments in Turkey and Ukraine.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Olesii Reznikov told reporters in Kyiv that the coproduction compound would also include a training center where Ukrainian pilots would be trained.

In 2019, Baykar Makina, a privately owned Turkish drone maker, won a contract to sell six Bayraktar TB2 UAVs to Ukraine. The $69 million contract also involved the sale of ammunition for the armed version of the aircraft.

In September, the Ukrainian government announced that it was planning to buy 24 more Turkish unmanned combat aerial vehicles in the coming months.

Use of the TB2 by Ukrainian forces against Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine has irked Moscow. As U.S. officials claimed to have intelligence of Russian officials working on a staged video of Ukrainian forces attacking Russians as a pretext for war, the Washington Post cited an unnamed U.S. government official on Friday saying a TB2 drone could be pictured in such a film to implicate NATO.

The Bayraktar TB2 is a medium-altitude, long-range tactical UAV system. It was developed by Kale-Baykar, a joint venture of Baykar Makina and the Kale Group. The UAV operates as a platform for conducting reconnaissance and intelligence missions.

Reznikov said that the aircraft to be coproduced would be dubbed the Turkish-Ukrainian Bayraktar.

He said the drone would be powered by a Ukrainian engine. In earlier talks Turkish sources said that the engine would be supplied by the Ukrainian producer Motor Sich.

Bayraktar TB2 features a monocoque design and integrates an inverse V-tail structure. The fuselage is made of carbon fiber, Kevlar and hybrid composites, whereas the joint segments constitute precision computer numerical control (CNC) machined aluminum parts.

Each Bayraktar TB2 system consists of six aerial vehicles, two ground control stations, three ground data terminals, two remote video terminals and ground-support equipment.

The Bayraktar TB2s maximum payload exceeds 55 kilograms. The standard payload configuration includes an electro-optical camera module, an infrared camera module, a laser designator, a laser range finder and a laser pointer.

Ukraine was the first export market for the TB2, with the sale of six systems in a $69 million contract in 2019. Baykar has also won contracts to sell batches of the TB2 to Qatar, Azerbaijan and Poland.

Burak Ege Bekdil is a Turkey correspondent for Defense News. He has written for Hurriyet Daily News, and worked as Ankara bureau chief for Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC-e television. He is also a fellow at the Middle East Forum and regularly writes for the Middle East Quarterly and Gatestone Institute.

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Turkey and Ukraine to coproduce TB2 drones - DefenseNews.com

The Sydney schoolchildren preoccupied with the threat of war in Ukraine – Sydney Morning Herald

There are more than 14,000 people in NSW with Ukrainian ancestry, according to Multicultural NSW.

The school holds classes at St Andrews Ukrainian Catholic Church where Oleg Sapishchuk and his family participated in a prayer service.

St Andrews Ukrainian School principal Odarka Brecko said she felt extremely sad and disappointed about the prospect of war.Credit:Steven Siewert

Mr Sapishchuk arrived in Australia eight months ago with his wife Orysia Melnyk and four-year-old son Danylo after living in Japan.

He expressed concern that the massing of Russian troops along Ukraines border was an escalation of a drawn-out conflict.

Me and my wife we dont sleep very well in the past few days, he said. My wife, one of the nights this week, woke up at 4.30 because she had a bad dream and started checking her phone.

Mr Sapishchuk said daily life had become more difficult in recent months for his family and friends, who live in western Ukraine, as groceries prices spiked.

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Ukraine is a vast, multicultural country whose people have a variety of attitudes towards Russia, Mr Sapishchuk said. Myself, my family, we are more pro-European. We have a bad neighbour on the eastern side, but we want to be more with Europe.

We actually want to decide ourselves what we want to do, and not actually Russia telling us what we have to do, he said.

Hanna Mykytenko also pointed to the ongoing nature of the conflict with Russia, including the annexation of Crimea in 2014 following the Maidan revolution in Ukraines capital Kyiv.

This aggression from 2014 has never stopped, she said. Our people have been dying from that date.

Ms Mykytenko said it really hurts to not be able to visit the land of her parents and their graves. I cannot visit this part of Ukraine because it is not safe.

Fighting in eastern Ukraine has impacted the daily lives of Stephen Dumas relatives, with some prepared to take up arms while others seek refuge from conflict zones.

Theyre worried and scared because a war has sort of been happening in Ukraine for eight years now, he said.

Mr Duma, a director of the Ukrainian Council of NSW, said the problem is not the Russian people but rather Putin and his colleagues in Moscow.

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Mr Duma said ongoing public support by Australia was greatly appreciated by the Ukrainian community. He said military aid, humanitarian assistance, co-operation with cyber defence, and increasing sanctions were ways for Australia to support Ukraine.

Ukrainians have lived through enough tragedy and war, and want to be able to live a normal life in a free, democratic country, as we in Australia and the west do, Mr Duma said.

They want their children to grow up in a free country without the constant threat of war from a neighbouring country.

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The Sydney schoolchildren preoccupied with the threat of war in Ukraine - Sydney Morning Herald

Ukraine crisis: Why is Germany out of step with the US, Europe? – Al Jazeera English

Brussels, Belgium Every time the European Union has to make big decisions on migration, trade or foreign relations, Germany takes the lead.

But Berlins restrictive stance on how to deal with Russia to deter the crisis in Ukraine has raised eyebrows among its allies, while experts accuse Germany of watching from the sidelines.

While the United States and some EU nations have sent military support to Ukraine, Germany has offered only medical aid and has been ridiculed for its promise to send helmets. It has also banned Estonia from supplying German-origin Howitzer weapons to Ukraine.

Germanys navy chief Kay-Achim Schnbach, who has since resigned, earlier downplayed the crisis, saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin deserved respect.

These developments have frustrated Germanys NATO allies, who are eager to secure unanimity to deal with the Kremlin.

European security cannot be done without a German leading role. At this moment, when were looking at how theyre acting on European defence and NATO, the readiness of the Bundeswehr, the hesitance to use military force, its absurd for the current times, Latvias Minister of Defence Artis Pabrik told the Financial Times, referring to the German military.

Last week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz insisted the country is in tune with EU and NATO policies towards Russia, but stuck to his stance, telling reporters in Berlin: We dont provide any lethal weapons.

Stefan Scheller, an associate fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations said the position of the current German government, a coalition of the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the Free Democrats is rooted in history.

The SPD has a longstanding legacy from what they consider a successful Cold War strategy of rapprochement towards the Soviet Union. However, seeking rapprochement in the current situation with 100,000 Russian soldiers on the border to Ukraine is naive, he told Al Jazeera.

The Liberals and part of the Greens have a more assertive perspective towards dealing with Russia. However, the Greens having their roots in the peace movement have also historically had huge concerns about any kind of arms deliveries.

Germanys cautious approach towards deterring Russia has not gone down well in Ukraine.

Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba recently tweeted: Statements by Germany about the impossibility of transferring defence weapons to Ukraine, in particular due to permission to third parties, the futility of returning Crimea, hesitations to disconnect Russia from SWIFT- do not correspond to the level of our relations and the current security situation.

German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock responded quickly, saying Berlin is acting in a historically responsible manner; because of its role in the second world war, the countrys policy against sending arms to crisis zones.

But Mykola Bielieskov, an analyst at Ukraines National Institute for Strategic Studies, believes the idea that Germany has to fulfil a special responsibility towards Russia because of its second world war legacy is groundless.

In this WWII responsibility paradigm, Germany owes Ukraine much more than Russia, given the fact that all Ukraine was occupied from 1941-42 and we suffered more under The Third Reich, he told Al Jazeera.

On the other hand, Germany would need to shoulder the burden of negative outcomes if Russia indeed launched an all-out war against Ukraine.

Markus Ziener, Helmut Schmidt fellow at the German Marshall Fund (GMF) of the US, told Al Jazeera: This historical stance of the German government is lopsided. In the past, Germanys actions had made Ukraine suffer and while the uneasiness to supply weapons is understandable, in the current scenario, supplying arms to fortify Ukraine would actually help the country.

After Germanys offer to send 5,000 helmets and medical aid to Ukraine,Kyivs Mayor Vitali Klitschko joked to the German newspaper BILD Daily: What will Germany send next? Pillows?

Scheller told Al Jazeera Germany should consider providing substantial numbers of protective vests and night vision equipment.

Moreover, the country should not block European partners from supplying arms to Ukraine and should refrain from comments which weakens European cohesion, he said.

He added that the country has at times been flexible with its arms export policy.

While exporting arms to conflict zones is not a part of Germanys foreign policy tradition, Germany has at times and for good reasons- been flexible with its own benchmarks when it provided weapons to support the Kurds in Syria, who were fighting the Islamic State, said Scheller.

Germanys economic linkages and its gas pipeline project Nord Stream 2 with Russia, could be behind Germanys softer approach.

The contentious Nord Stream 2 pipeline which Washington fears Moscow is using to increase its leverage in Europe is meant to bring natural gas from Russia to Germany.

While Germany works towards a renewable future, GMFs Zeiner said that at present, if Germany decides to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, it is bound to hurt the country.

Germanys reliance on gas is high and will increase till there is sufficient renewable energy. So the country will need gas and energy supply from elsewhere, he told Al Jazeera.

Of Nord Stream 2, Rachel Rizzo, senior fellow at the Atlantic Councils Europe Center, said: What were seeing is a situation where those economic links hinder how [the West] can respond during a crisis that involves Russia.

When it comes to Germany, the country has a pacifist bent to it and it has for decades, especially after World War II. But I also think there are political elements at play here. The SPD, which holds the German chancellor, has historically been more friendly with Russia, whereas the Greens who are in charge of the foreign ministry and the economic and climate ministry, for instance, are much more hawkish and are famously anti-Nord Stream 2.

Keen to show Germanys interest in defusing the crisis in Ukraine, German foreign minister Baerbock is set to visit Ukraine on February 7 and announced at the Bundestag that the country is working on a strong package of sanctions against Russia, should it launch an attack.

She highlighted that this package covers several aspects, including Nord Stream 2.

Yet, Scheller explains that sanctions alone will not solve all problems.

Putin tests the West and tries to change the post-cold-war security order to his liking. Right now, Germany should refrain from comments which weakens European cohesion and find a compromise with its allies, he said.

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Ukraine crisis: Why is Germany out of step with the US, Europe? - Al Jazeera English