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Ahead of a key meeting on Friday between the U.S. and Russia, the Biden administration on Thursday pushed a full-scale campaign to pressure Moscow as Russian leader Vladimir Putin weighs a possible attack on its neighbor Ukraine.

The U.S. approved its NATO allies in the Baltics to provide additional arms to Ukraine, including critical anti-aircraft missiles that escalate U.S. support. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned four Ukrainian officials it accused of working with Russian intelligence, including to form a new government backed by Russian occupying forces. The State Department blasted a Russian disinformation campaign it said was part of its "pretext" to invade Ukraine and "divide the international reaction to its actions."

One day before his sit-down with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Secretary of State Antony Blinken tried to push back on Russia's narrative and make clear just how high the stakes are in the standoff.

"It's bigger than a conflict between two countries. It's bigger than Russia and NATO. It's a crisis with global consequences, and it requires global attention and action," the top U.S. diplomat said in Berlin, hours after meeting his German, French, and British counterparts to coordinate a response.

That coordination has had tremendous doubt cast on it after President Joe Biden said Wednesday that the NATO alliance was not united about how to respond to aggression from Russia that fell short of an all-out attack on Ukraine -- an uncomfortable truth that U.S. and NATO officials have tried to paper over for weeks.

A convoy of Russian armored vehicles moves along a highway in Crimea, Jan. 18, 2022.

After the White House scrambled to clean that up, Biden himself clarified on Thursday, "If any -- any -- assembled Russian units move across the Ukrainian border, that is an invasion. But -- and it will be met with severe and coordinated economic response that I've discussed in detail with our allies."

But the challenge remains of what the U.S. and its allies will do if Russia attacks Ukraine with the same gray-zone tactics it has used for the last eight years, as it annexed Crimea, launched a war in eastern Ukraine, and began a slow-motion annexation of those provinces.

That war, which has killed approximately 14,000 people, rages on in fits and starts on the frontlines -- and in cyberspace. Ukrainian government websites were hacked in ""the largest cyberattack on Ukraine in the last four years," a Ukrainian cyber official said Wednesday, and Moscow has launched a "disinformation storm" portraying Ukraine as the aggressor and trying to "build public support for a further Russian invasion," a senior State Department official said Thursday.

The Kremlin's campaign to destabilize its smaller, democratic neighbor allegedly includes spies on the ground, collecting information and even plotting to form a new Ukrainian government.

"Russia has directed its intelligence services to recruit current and former Ukrainian government officials to prepare to take over the government of Ukraine and to control Ukraines critical infrastructure with an occupying Russian force," the U.S. Treasury said in a statement.

The U.S. has sanctioned two sitting members of Ukrainian parliament, Taras Kozak and Oleh Voloshyn, who it accused of furthering a plot by the FSB, Russia's main security agency and the successor of the KGB. The agency, which Biden said Wednesday has forces on the ground in Ukraine, is "destabilizing the political situation in Ukraine and laying the groundwork for creating a new, Russian-controlled government in Ukraine," Treasury added.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (background, C) opens a meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken (R), Britain's Minister of State for Middle East, North Africa and North America James Cleverly (foreground R) and French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian (L) at the German Foreign Office in Berlin, Jan. 20, 2022.

In the face of that effort, the U.S. is hoping that transparency can undercut any pretext Russian operatives or their Ukrainian colleagues may create -- just as the White House last week accused the Kremlin of positioning operatives trained in urban warfare and explosives and planning a possible "false-flag" operation.

Russia has denied that, calling it "complete disinformation." It has said repeatedly it does not plan to attack the former Soviet state, even as Putin warned that his demands, including barring Ukraine from joining NATO, be met or Russia will take "military technical" measures.

The U.S. is taking its own military measures, approving the transfer of more weaponry to Ukraine -- this time from Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia, a State Department spokesperson confirmed, while declining to say what weapons exactly.

But a Lithuanian Ministry of Defense source told ABC News the country was given the green light to transfer to Ukraine Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger portable surface-to-air missiles. The Baltic state wanted to send the weapons even earlier, but because they were originally U.S. provided, it needed American approval, which only came during consultations Wednesday, the source said.

Stingers are a kind of man-portable air-defense system, or MANPAD, where an individual soldier can carry the weapon and use it to down fighter aircraft. Javelins, which the Trump administration provided after the Obama administration had refused, have become an important weapon for Ukraine to pierce Russian-made tanks, which could come rolling across the border in an invasion .

Ukraine's military capacity still pales in comparison to Russia's overwhelming military superiority, and it's unclear how many missiles are being provided. Lithuania has only 54 of the missiles in its inventory and only eight launchers from which to fire them from, meaning the amount provided to Ukraine will likely be even lower.

Still, Stingers in particular represent a symbolic threshold that previous administrations had not crossed. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., who was in Kyiv earlier this week as part of a bipartisan congressional delegation, warned Thursday that in this "very fragile time... it would not be helpful to give Putin an excuse to invade Ukraine, so I think we've got to be very thoughtful about how we address some of these issues like a missile system."

Russia has already warned that it sees any Western weapons provided to Ukraine as a threat, especially after the U.S. announced $200 million in new military aid ($650 million total over the last year) and the United Kingdom announced it provided anti-tank missiles.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (background, C) opens a meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken (R), Britain's Minister of State for Middle East, North Africa and North America James Cleverly (foreground R) and French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian (L) at the German Foreign Office in Berlin, Jan. 20, 2022.

Russia, however, has warned that it sees any Western weapons provided to Ukraine as a threat.

"We underline the necessity of ceasing boosting the war-like Ukrainian regime with arms deliveries ... and a lot else that represents a direct threat for us," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Wednesday.

But Blinken pushed back on that Thursday in a major speech, disputing the Russian narrative and making clear Moscow is the aggressor.

"On its face, thats absurd. NATO didn't invade Georgia, NATO didn't invade Ukraine - Russia did," he said, adding NATO neighbors account for six percent of Russia's borders and have 5,000 allied troops in those countries, while Russia has massed 20 times that around Ukraine.

There has been tense speculation about whether Putin will attack Ukraine, with Biden saying Wednesday he believes the strongman leader will "move in." But Blinken said Thursday the U.S. still believes he has not made up his mind yet, but added his animus towards Ukraine has long been known.

"He's told us repeatedly - he's laying the groundwork for an invasion because he doesn't believe that Ukraine is a sovereign nation," Blinken said.

In this image taken from footage provided by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Press Service, a Ukrainian soldiers use a launcher with US Javelin missiles during military exercises in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Jan. 12, 2022.

That argument has been a key part of Russia's disinformation ecosystem, which has been in overdrive in recent weeks, according to senior State Department officials.

Russia's military and intelligence entities have deployed 3,500 posts per day in December -- an increase of 200 percent from November -- as they seek to "create conditions conducive to success of attempted aggression in Ukraine and elsewhere and to divide the international reaction to its actions," a senior State Department official told reporters.

"These are not just public statements from Russia's MFA accounts ... These are broader campaigns using shell companies, false names, and layers to conceal the real backers and their intentions," a second senior State Department official said, calling it "a war on truth."

Russia must pull back its propaganda campaign in addition to its troops on Ukraine's borders, the official added, echoing previous U.S. calls for de-escalation to give diplomacy a shot.

Whether or not diplomacy has a shot will be tested again Friday in Geneva, where Blinken and Lavrov will meet. A senior State Department official said earlier in the week that the meeting itself is a sign the door to diplomacy remains open, but the two sides continue to talk past each other.

The two diplomats will "discuss draft agreements on security guarantees," Russia's embassy in Washington tweeted Thursday - a reference to its demands that NATO bar Ukraine from joining and pull back forces from Eastern European member states. But U.S. officials have repeatedly called those "nonstarters," and Blinken said Wednesday in Kyiv he would not be "presenting a paper" to Lavrov in response.

That has raised fears that Moscow is simply using diplomatic talks to see them fail - yet another pretext before an attack. But regardless of whether there's a full-born assault, Russia has now effectively shaken Ukraine once again. Its president Volodymyr Zelenskyy tried to reassure the nation late Wednesday, even pushing back on the U.S. warnings that the threat is more urgent.

"These risks have been there for more than one day, and they haven't grown nowadays - there is just more buzz around them," he said in a televised address.

ABC's Dada Jovanovic contributed to this report from Belgrade, Serbia, Patrick Reevell from Kyiv, Ukraine, and Luis Martinez from the Pentagon.

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US escalates pressure on Russia, approving new arms and accusing it of plot against Ukraine - ABC News

Both Russian and American officials sounded a pessimistic note after three rounds of talks last week, with one Russian diplomat saying that talks with the West were approaching a dead end, and Mr. Blinken offered little reason for optimism.

Mr. Blinken said the United States did not make any formal proposals last week but merely talked about areas for reciprocal cooperation, including arms control and the conduct of military exercises in Europe.

He said it was unclear whether Russia was prepared to negotiate in good faith on those fronts, or at all.

Russia has positioned around 100,000 troops along its western border with Ukraine, although precise estimates vary. On Tuesday, the White House press secretary, Jen Psaki, said that Russia could at any point launch an attack in Ukraine.

In a news conference on Wednesday, President Biden echoed that message, saying he expected Mr. Putin to invade. Do I think hell test the West, test the United States and NATO, as significantly as he can? Yes, I think he will, Mr. Biden told reporters, adding: But I think he will pay a serious and dear price for it that he doesnt think now will cost him what its going to cost him. And I think he will regret having done it.

Speaking at a forum in Moscow earlier on Wednesday, Russias deputy foreign minister, Sergei A. Ryabkov, repeated his governments previous denial that Moscow has any plans to move its forces into Ukraine.

We will not attack, strike, invade, quote unquote, whatever, Ukraine, Mr. Ryabkov said. He said the Russian troops near Ukraines border were conducting training exercises.

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As U.S. and Russia Prepare to Talk, Blinken Presents Hard Line - The New York Times

Introduction

Tensions between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have reached the point of crisis. The government of Russian President Vladimir Putin is threatening a wider military incursion into Ukraine unless the U.S.-led alliance makes several major security concessions, including a commitment to cease expanding eastward.

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Russia says that the United States and NATO have continually violated pledges allegedly made in the early 1990s that the alliance would not expand into the former Soviet bloc. Meanwhile, alliance leaders have said they are open to new diplomacy with Russia on arms control and other matters but that they are unwilling to discuss forever shutting NATOs doors to new members.

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Russian leaders have long been wary of the eastward expansion of NATO, particularly as the alliance opened its doors to former Warsaw Pact states and ex-Soviet republics in the late 1990s (the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) and early 2000s (Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia). Their fears grew in the late 2000s as the alliance stated its intent to admit Georgia and Ukraine at an unspecified point in the future.

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For the Kremlin, the notion that Ukraine, a pillar of the Soviet Union with strong historic ties to Russia, would join NATO was a red line. No Russian leader could stand idly by in the face of steps toward NATO membership for Ukraine. That would be a hostile act toward Russia, Putin warned U.S. Undersecretary for Political Affairs William J. Burns, who is now director of the CIA, in the weeks leading up to NATOs 2008 Bucharest Summit.

Although NATO did not announce a formal membership plan for Ukraine and Georgia at the Bucharest Summit, the alliance did affirm that these countries will become members of NATO, and it extended formal invitations to accession talks to Albania and Croatia, which became members in 2009. NATO expanded again in 2017, admitting Montenegro, and in 2020, welcoming North Macedonia.

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Russian officials say that the U.S. government made a pledge to Soviet leaders not to expand the alliances eastern borders, a commitment they say came during the flurry of diplomacy following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and surrounding the reunification of Germany in 1990. Proponents of this narrative often cite the words that U.S. Secretary of State James A. Baker said to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in February 1990, that there would be no extension of NATOs jurisdiction for forces of NATO one inch to the east. They say the United States and NATO have repeatedly betrayed this verbal commitment in the decades since, taking advantage of Russias tumultuous post-Soviet period and expanding the Western alliance several times, all the way to Russias doorstep in the case of the Baltic states.

However, many Western analysts and former U.S. officials involved in these discussions dispute what they say is a selective view of history. They point out that, in early 1990, the focus of the diplomacy between the so-called Two Plus Four (East and West Germany plus the United States, France, the Soviet Union, and the United Kingdom) was the future of Germany and the question of whether the soon-to-be unified country would be part of NATO. (West Germany was already an alliance member, while East Germany was part of the Soviet-aligned Warsaw Pact.) They say that the discussions were not about NATOs long-term plans for eastward expansion, which would have made little sense at that time; the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union still existed, and there was scant indication they would dissolve as quickly as they did, in a matter of months. In a 2014 interview, Gorbachev said as much: The topic of NATO expansion was never discussed. It was not raised in those years.

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The diplomacy between U.S. and Soviet leaders during this period focused on Germany and included discussions of various post-unification security options, including the potential for Germany to become part of both NATO and the Warsaw Pact, for Germany to be nonaligned, and even for the Soviet Union to join NATO. Early in the talks, Soviet leaders insisted that a unified Germany never become part of NATO, though they eventually accepted Germanys right to decide for itself. Similarly, the United States stepped back from Bakers initial language on not expanding NATOs jurisdiction, which he reportedly used only in the discussion about whether NATO troops would be based in what was then East Germany. In the end, the treaty recognizing German unification that the Two Plus Four powers signed in the summer of 1990 stipulated that only German territorial (non-NATO) forces could be based in East Germany while Soviet forces withdrew. After that, only German forces assigned to NATO could be based there, not foreign NATO forces. The treaty doesnt mention NATOs rights and commitments beyond Germany.

Some experts point to another pivotal moment to help explain the mistrust between Russia and NATO today: the 199394 discussions between the Bill Clinton administration and the Russian government led by Boris Yeltsin.

By this point, the Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union had collapsed, and the Clinton administration was seeking to craft a new security architecture in Europe that would help foster and fortify the continents fledging, post-Soviet democracies, including Russia. Some in the Clinton government, as well as Central European countries such as the Czech Republic and Poland, wanted to move quickly and start expanding NATOs membership eastward. However, most Clinton officials reportedly did not, being wary that expansion would rankle Russian leaders at a fragile, transitional moment and detract from other U.S. foreign policy objectives, such as nuclear arms control.

Instead, Clinton chose to develop a new NATO initiative called the Partnership for Peace (PfP), which would be nonexclusive and open to all former Warsaw Pact members, as well as non-European countries. Seeing this non-membership framework as a compromise of sorts, in October 1993, U.S. diplomats proposed it to Yeltsin, who eagerly accepted. (Just days before, Yeltsin, with the Russian militarys support, forcefully put down an attempt by parliament to oust him.) NATO launched PfP at its annual summit in January 1994, and more than two dozen countries, including Georgia, Russia, and Ukraine, joined in the following months.

However, Clinton soon began speaking publicly [PDF] about expanding NATOs membership, saying in Prague just days after the launch of PfP that the question is no longer whether NATO will take on new members but when and how. Yeltsin warned Western leaders at a conference in December of that year that Europe, even before it has managed to shrug off the legacy of the Cold War, is risking encumbering itself with a cold peace.

Clinton subsequently made efforts to allay Yeltsins concerns: pushing off enlargement until after the Russian leader was reelected in 1996, inviting Russia to join the Group of Seven, and establishing a formal, non-adversarial forum for Russia-NATO diplomacy. But analysts say that NATOs expansion in the ensuing years would leave deep scars on the Russian psyche. For many Russians, most importantly Vladimir Putin, the 1990s were a decade of humiliation, as the United States imposed its vision of order on Europe (including in Kosovo in 1999) while the Russians could do nothing but stand by and watch, James Goldgeier, an expert on NATO-Russia relations, wrote for War on the Rocks.

The Russian government, led by Putin, continued to be wary of NATO expansion in the 2000s. Putin expressed doubts that the alliance, which grew its fastest in 2004, would be effective in tackling the security challenges of the day, including international terrorism and the conflict in Afghanistan. Many new members, particularly the Baltic countries, saw NATO membership as a shield against their former Soviet rulers.

In the years that followed, Putin grew increasingly outspoken in his displeasure at NATOs inroads into Eastern Europe, saying at a high-profile speech in Munich in 2007 that it is obvious that NATO expansion does not have any relation with themodernization ofthealliance itself orwith ensuring security inEurope. Onthecontrary, it represents aserious provocation that reduces thelevel ofmutual trust. In the summer following NATOs 2008 Bucharest Summit, where NATO stated its intent to admit Georgia and Ukraine, Russia invaded the former. Six years later, as Kyiv stepped closer to an economic partnership with another Western bloc, the European Union, Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea.

Russia has put forth two draft agreements that seek explicit, legally binding security guarantees from the United States and NATO, respectively:

Treaty with the United States. The draft treaty contains eight articles, some of which call for tight restrictions on U.S. and NATO political and military activities.

Agreement with NATO. The draft agreement has nine articles, including several that call for dramatic military concessions from the transatlantic alliance.

Many Western analysts and officials have said that several of Russias demands, such the ban on future NATO enlargement, are effectively nonstarters and that the Kremlin has proposed them in bad faith. Some fear Moscows demands are deliberately excessive, intended to be dismissed by Western powers and serve as a pretext for Russia to escalate its military activity in Ukraine, potentially by a broad invasion.

The United States and NATOhave said they remain committedto restoring Ukraines territorial integrity and sovereignty. They do not recognize Russias claims to Crimea, and have encouraged Russia and Ukraine to resolve the conflict in the countrys eastern Donbas region viathe Minsk agreements[PDF]. Signed in 2014 and 2015 and brokered by France and Germany, these accords call for a cease-fire, a withdrawal of heavy weapons, Ukraines control over its border with Russia, and local elections and a special political status for certain areas of the region.

Meanwhile, Kyiv has affirmed its goal of eventually gaining NATO membership, and it holds yearly military exercises with the alliance, including the Sea Breeze and Rapid Trident drills. The U.S. military has provided Ukrainian forces with training and equipment, including sniper rifles, grenade launchers, night-vision gear, radars, Javelin anti-tank missiles, and patrol vessels. In 2020, Ukraine became one of just six so-called enhanced opportunity partners, a special status given to NATOs closet allies, such as Australia.

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Why NATO Has Become a Flash Point With Russia in Ukraine - Council on Foreign Relations

Yiry Ulshin surveyed a scene of ruin. Before him were the remains of what was once a school. Desks were covered in debris. A photo of the class of 2011 lay in the wreckage. There were abandoned crayons and year 3 books in Ukrainian and Russian. Beyond a bullet-scarred wall was a view of pine trees and sea.

My heart is hurting. Why did Russia do this? Ulshin, a Ukrainian army commander, asked.

The abandoned primary school is situated in Shyrokyne, in eastern Ukraine, on the frontline between the Ukrainian army and pro-Russian forces. The village was once a resort. Tourists would stay in its guesthouses, walk along the sandy beach and paddle in the picturesque Sea of Azov.

Now it is a ghostly wreck. In 2014 Russia annexed Crimea, down the coast, and kickstarted a violent conflict in the Donbas region. The following year Ukrainian militias clawed back some of the provinces seaside strip including Shyrokyne, 14 miles east of the port city of Mariupol. My friend was killed in fighting here, Ulshin said.

Today the villages holiday complex resembles a phantasmagoric film set. An alley of pulverised flats leads on to a glass-strewn summer terrace. There is a rusted childs bicycle, a washing machine and a savagely twisted bonnet from a GAZ-53 truck. The ground is pitted with shell holes. Swimming is not advised: the beach is mined. A seagull floated above it.

The separatists did not retreat far, ensconcing themselves just beyond the hillside village of Vodyane, a mile away and visible from the net-covered former sanatorium that serves as the soldiers frontline base. Washing was hanging on a line; logs were piled up for fuel. Two days ago they fired a rocket at one of our cars, out on patrol, Ulshin said. It missed.

Was anywhere in the village safe? No, Ulshin said. Death happens when you dont expect it. The Russians [separatists] work very professionally. A sniper shot me in 2018. I lost so much blood, people thought I wasnt going to make it. But here I am. Ten of my men have been wounded.

Since autumn, Russia has assembled a potential invasion force of 100,000 soldiers on Ukraines borders. The latest signals are ominous. The Kremlin says military exercises will take place next month in Belarus, 90 miles north of the capital, Kyiv. According to the Ukrainian government, Russian forces are covertly stationed in rebel mini-fiefdoms in the cities of Donetsk adjacent to Mariupol and Luhansk.

So far, Putin has kept the world guessing as to what he plans to do. The EU and US have condemned Russian aggression and threatened sanctions. This week the UK flew defensive anti-tank weapons to Kyiv. The Biden administration is reportedly considering military help. On Wednesday the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, visited Kyiv. None of this is likely to stop a Russian incursion should Putin order one.

Look at history. All conflicts have an active phase and a less active one, Ulshin said. The Kremlin would not seize the whole of Ukraine, an enormous and bloody undertaking, he thought; instead it would pursue hybrid war, with the goal of toppling Ukraines Nato-aspiring government and replacing it.

Ukraines soldiers are motivated, professional and ready to defend their homes. But it is obvious they are badly outgunned. Ulshin said he had received some help from Lithuania in the shape of four lightweight bulletproof plates. In the near distance shots rang out, followed by a percussive boom from an auto-grenade launcher.

Ukraine lost much of its navy in 2014, when Russian special forces seized Crimea. Moscow eventually returned the Donbas, an ageing Soviet warship that now sits in Mariupols port alongside two small armoured artillery boats, the Ludny and Kremenchuk. This meagre collection is no match for Russias mighty Black Sea fleet.

Its old but reliable, Cptn Oleksandr Hrigorevskiy said, pointing to the Donbass bow machine gun. Stamped on the side was a date, 1954. The Russians trashed the ships communication system before handing it back, he said, and many of his former officer colleagues defected. The boat subsequently caught fire. It is now used as a command and repair ship.

The deck offers a sweeping view of the Azov Sea bathed in a raspberry light. At 9am each day sailors raise and salute the Ukrainian flag. At night the Russian port of Yeysk twinkles in the distance. The Azov and Black seas are a key commercial route for Russia, linked to a network of rivers and canals.

According to Hrigorevskiy, the Kremlin has annexed the Azov Sea by stealth. Under a 2003 agreement, Russia and Ukraine are supposed to share access. But Moscow now controls Crimeas Kerch Strait, the only way in and out. In 2018 it started impounding Ukrainian civilian vessels, dealing a death blow to Mariupol as a cargo port.

Of late, Moscow has declared large chunks of the internal sea off limits to Ukrainian boats, citing the need to carry out naval exercises. When the Donbas set off towards Kerch in December, sailing in international waters, Putins FSB spy agency accused Kyiv of an act of aggression. We watched a report on Russian TV. They play psychological games, Hrigorevskiy said.

Mariupol stands in the way of any potential Russian advance from the east. In 2014, Kremlin-backed separatists controlled the city for two months. Since then pro-Kyiv volunteers have moved to the area.

Anatoliy Lozar helped to liberate Mariupol, and subsequently married a local woman. He said Russian sentiment was still strong, especially among older residents. Television plays a big role, he said. You can get Russian state channels for free. You have to pay for Ukrainian ones. Lozar said most people in Mariupol vote for the opposition party of Viktor Medvedchuk, a pro-Moscow oligarch accused of treason and now under house arrest.

Over at Mariupols aerodrome, soldiers acknowledged that Moscow was likely to bomb the runway and other strategic military targets, should it attack. Yes, we cant defend physical infrastructure. But weve learned to spread our forces out, to minimise losses, Taras Eleyko said. He added: Putin is a card-sharp. He would need 600,000 troops to occupy Ukraine. He doesnt have that.

Eleyko was part of a travelling amateur theatre troupe from western Ukraine. The group had arrived at the military airport to entertain troops with a traditional mystery play known as a vertep. This one featured familiar characters such as an angel and devil, as well a crown-wearing Putin plus Joe Biden, who carried a stars and stripes flag.

The show took place in what was once the departure lounge, beneath a colourful communist-era mosaic. Someone had pasted Ukraines blue and yellow flag over the old hammer and sickle. The play ended with Death actually Olena Chebeliuk, a historian from Lviv chasing Putin off to hell. She wore a skeleton costume and carried a white scythe.

Were afraid Russia will invade and capture Ukraine. Our army is not very ready to fight, Chebeliuk said, speaking in fluent English. We dont really have Stingers or patriot missiles. We only have old Soviet rockets, many of them not in a good state. If there is a big war, I fear in the first weeks we will have many casualties.

Chebeliuk predicted that a Russian offensive would set off a partisan war. A lot of us are ready to fight. We will resist in every city, in every village. Ukrainians hate Putin, especially in the west of our country. I hope Putin is just pretending with his threats, to get something from the west and Biden.

Whenever Ukrainian rulers began acting like dictators the people rose up against them, she said, citing the 2014 revolution of dignity in Kyiv against the then president, Viktor Yanukovych. Chebeliuk rejected Putins recent claims that Ukraine and Russia were one people.

Russians have lived for 20 years in a dictatorship. They are happy, she said. We dont like dictators here. Putin is a bit of a dreamer. He wants to be the most powerful man in the world. If he tries to make a dictatorship in Ukraine he will fail.

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Fear and defiance on Ukraines frontline: We dont like dictators here - The Guardian

Well be fully surrounded by equal forces, the senior Ukrainian security official said.

In Washington, U.S. officials say they still assess that Mr. Putin has not yet made a decision to invade. They describe him as more a tactician than a grand strategist, and they believe that he is constantly weighing a host of different factors. Among them is how well he could weather the threatened sanctions on his banks and industry, and whether his demands that Ukraine stop veering toward NATO and that NATO stop spreading toward Russia are receiving enough attention.

But the U.S. officials say Mr. Putin may also have concluded that with the United States and other countries arming Ukraine, his military advantage is at risk of slipping away. Britains defense secretary, Ben Wallace, announced in an address to Parliament on Monday that the country would begin providing Ukraine with light, anti-armor defensive weapons. Mr. Putin may become tempted to act sooner rather than later.

U.S. officials saw Russias embassy evacuations coming. We have information that indicates the Russian government was preparing to evacuate their family members from the Russian Embassy in Ukraine in late December and early January, a U.S. official said in a statement.

Ukrainian officials say they saw the Russians leave.

But that leaves open the question of what, if anything, the Russians were signaling.

It is possible they were trying to bolster the case that the United States and its Western allies should take seriously their demands that Ukraine can never join NATO, and that troops, nuclear weapons and other heavy weaponry must be removed from former Warsaw Pact states, like Poland, that were once allied with the Soviet Union.

It could also be that the Russians were trying to indicate that an attack was brewing, though there were no other signals. In fact, the buildup of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border is not increasing at a rate that Pentagon officials expected a month ago.

The latest U.S. estimates are that about 60 battalion tactical groups, known as B.T.G.s and each with an average of 800 soldiers, are now in place at the border with Ukraine. Combined with other local forces, the Russians have about 77,000 troops at the border, with more on the way. Others put the figure at closer to 100,000 much depends on how different forces are counted but that is well short of the Pentagons estimate more than a month ago that the total number could rise to 175,000.

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Russia Thins Out Its Embassy in Ukraine, a Possible Clue to Putins Next Move - The New York Times