Archive for the ‘Ukraine’ Category

U.S. Approved More Weapons for Ukraine. Now It’s a Race Against Time. – The New York Times

Last Sunday, as Russia put pressure on Ukrainian forces across a 600-mile front line, Ukraine received a shipment of anti-armor rockets, missiles and badly needed 155-millimeter artillery shells. It was the first installment from the $61 billion in military aid that President Biden approved just four days earlier.

A second batch of those weapons and ammunition arrived on Monday. And a fresh supply of Patriot interceptor missiles from Spain arrived in Poland on Tuesday. They would be at the Ukrainian front soon, a senior Spanish official said.

The push is on to move weapons to a depleted Ukrainian army that is back on its heels and desperate for aid. Over the last week, a flurry of planes, trains and trucks have arrived at NATO depots in Europe carrying ammunition and smaller weapon systems to be shipped across Ukraines borders.

Now we need to move fast, and we are, Mr. Biden said on April 24 when he signed the bill approving the aid. He added, Im making sure the shipments start right away.

But it may prove difficult for Mr. Biden and other NATO allies to maintain the urgency. Weapons pledged by the United States, Britain and Germany all of which have announced major new military support over the last three weeks could take months to arrive in numbers substantial enough to bolster Ukraines defenses on the battlefield, officials said.

That has raised questions about Ukraines ability to hold off the Russian attacks that have had Kyiv at a disadvantage for several months.

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U.S. Approved More Weapons for Ukraine. Now It's a Race Against Time. - The New York Times

Can Franco-German relations be rekindled over the Ukraine war? – Euronews

This article was originally published inFrench

Paris and Berlin are at loggerheads over military aid to Ukraine. But can the two European powerhouses unify behind Kyiv?

At a conference on Ukraine in Paris at the end of February 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron did not rule out putting boots on the ground in Ukraine.

The announcement didn't go down well across the Rhine.

A few hours later, Germany's Olaf Scholz answered Europe and NATO will not send any soldiers to Ukraine.

Macron's statement was "ared line for Germany, which fears being passed off as warmonger in the eyes of Vladimir Putin, according to Dr Carolyn Moser, director of a research group atHeidelberg'sMax Planck Institute of International Law and holder of the Alfred Grosser Chair at Sciences Po.

During the same conference, the French leader did not miss the opportunity to recall that many, around this table, were only considering sending sleeping bags and helmets to Ukraine.

It was a jibe at Berlin, which announced at the end of January 2022 it would send 5,000 helmets to Kyiv - but not arms. One month later Russian tanks rolled across the border.

The situation has changed a lot since then.

After the United States, Germany is now the second largest contributor of aid to Ukraine.

According to the Kiel Institute, Germany has committed to providing 17 billion in aid for Kyiv when France has only promised 1.8bn.

"France was less hesitant to deliver heavy weapons, but it made it much less public. And until now, it hesitates to say exactly what it delivered and to what extent. It justifies it by the fact that it could then reveal defence secrets," said expert Moser.

Lack of communication is also a source of tension between Berlin and Paris.

Faced with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Scholz announced at the end of February 2022 an envelope of 100bnto modernise the German army.

France regrets not having been informed beforehand.

Another thorn in the side of the Franco-German relationship is the European Sky Shield Initiative.

Initiated by Germany, the project, which includes 21 NATO countries but does not include France, consists of German (IRIS-T), American (PATRIOT) and Israeli (Arrow-3) systems.

These dissonances already existed before Moscow's assault on Ukraine. In 2017, Macron made a speech at the Sorbonne, calling for an overhaul of European defence - it fell on deaf ears across the Rhine.

The French and German visions of European defence differ fundamentally on one point: the role of NATO. "While France aspires to a certain autonomy, Germany prefers a transatlantic approach," explains Moser.

Defence is just part of a series of long-standing disagreements between Paris and Berlin.

Energy has historically been a major divide between the two. While France depends on nuclear power - providing around 70% of its electricity - Germany shut down its last nuclear power plant in 2023.

The war in Ukraine is now bringing the energy issue back on the table because Germany, a major consumer of Russian gas, must seek supplies elsewhere.

Another thorn in the Franco-German relations is the free trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur, the south American trade bloc.

"For Germany, free trade is essential because its economy is very dependent on exports... The opening rate of the German economy is 87%. It is considerable. France is only 60%," says Jacques-Pierre Gougeon,research director at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS).

While Berlin is pushing for this free trade agreement, Paris believes its environmental standards are insufficient", he explains.

The war in Ukraine has upset the distribution of roles and power relationships between the couple.

"There was a sort of tacit division of roles between a more leading France on defence issues, strategic issues, and then Germany on economic issues. And it is clear that this balance is now weakened with German ambitions on defence issues," says Gaspard Schnitzler,research director at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS).

Franco-German relations have been relegated to the background for Berlin, which increasingly has its eyes on the East.

In his speech in Prague in August 2022, Scholz called for the enlargement of the European Union to include the countries of the Western Balkans, Ukraine and Moldova.

Undeniably, Europe's centre of gravity will shift to the East," explains research director Schnitzler.

Experts say the balance of power is far from being redistributed, however.

"Germany and France alone account for 48% of euro area GDP, 32% of the EU population and 31% of the EU budget. So we cant do without," adds Jacques-Pierre Gougeon.

Several ways have been suggested by observers to get the Franco-German tandem back on track.

For expert Moser, the pair must communicate better.

Gougeon pleads for opening the Franco-German relationship to other partners, in particular Poland in the framework of the Weimar Triangle.

Schnitzler recommends carrying out existing projects such as the main ground combat system (MGCS), and thefuture combat air system(SCAF).

Macron will visit Germany for an official state visit later this month where the two leaders are expected to discuss, among other things, priorities for the next EU mandate ahead of the European elections scheduled for June 6-9.

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Can Franco-German relations be rekindled over the Ukraine war? - Euronews

Ukraine is ready for a just peace not Russia’s version of one – POLITICO Europe

Remember, President Zelenskyy was at the Munich Security Conference just days before Russia invaded, Reznikov told POLITICO. I was a member of the delegation with him in Munich, and there was this atmosphere, this ambience [of] Guys, you have to give up. It wasnt said directly, but it was there, he said. Hardly inspiring confidence as the negotiations with Russia kicked off.

But above all, Reznikov and other Ukrainian officials involved in the talks Ukraines Head of the Office of the President Andriy Yermak and his adviser Mykhailo Podolyak among them also doubted the Kremlins sincerity and whether it was negotiating in good faith. This was a skepticism honed during the hundreds of hours theyd spent bargaining with Russian officials before the 2022 invasion. Were the concessions Russia offered even worth the paper they were written on?

They may sign documents, but whether they keep to agreements is another matter, Reznikov said. Remember the Budapest Memorandum, he added, referencing the 1994 agreement Russia had signed, fixing Ukraines borders and recognizing its sovereignty in return for giving up its nuclear arsenal. French President Mitterrand refused to add his signature to [this] document and warned our president [Leonid Kuchma], Young man, they will trick you.

Kuchma told me this story. After 30 years, the Russians did just that they tricked us, he said. The Kuchma anecdote was on Reznikovs mind during the 2022 negotiations. And, according to Ukrainian negotiators, it was in the spirit of Mitterrand that the U.K. and the U.S. cautioned Ukraine.

Negotiations? They dont want real negotiations, Yermak told POLITICO. The Russians want the capitulation of Ukraine.

We would be at the negotiating table again in [a] moment, if the aggressor was ready, really ready, to agree a just peace but not for their version of peace, he said. Like Reznikov, Yermaks worried that Ukraine would abide by the concessions it made, while Russia would squirm out of them and refuse to implement whats agreed.

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Ukraine is ready for a just peace not Russia's version of one - POLITICO Europe

FT: US aid to Ukraine will help Ukraine launch counteroffensive in 2025, Sullivan says – Kyiv Independent

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Ukraine will look to launch a counteroffensive in 2025 with the support of the approved $61 billion aid package from the United States, as well as additional Western aid funding, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told the Financial Times on May 4.

Sullivan echoed Ukraine's hopes that the country will "move forward to recapture the territory that the Russians have taken - the clearest such articulation as to how the Biden administration sees the war evolving in the coming months.

The Financial Times notes that any new Ukrainian offensive would require additional military aid from Western allies, including the United States. The most recent $61 billion aid package from the U.S. took months to pass through Congress amid political infighting.

The United States is currently leading talks among Group of Seven (G7) allies to develop a military aid package to Ukraine worth up to $50 billion, Bloomberg reported on May 3. The potential package would reportedly be funded by the profits generated by accrued interest on frozen Russian assets.

Despite mounting pressures of an anticipated Russian summer offensive, Sullivan noted that with incoming U.S. weapons supplies, Ukraine will have the capacity to "hold the line" as it faces a difficult period in the war over the next few months.

Last month, in an interview with Germany's Bild magazine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that while there is a plan for a eventual counteroffensive, any such developments would be contingent on receiving additional aid from Western allies.

Amid a looming presidential election in the United States, questions have risen over the U.S.'s ongoing support of Ukraine if former President and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump is once again elected to office.

In early April, media reported, citing undisclosed sources, that Trump had privately said he could end Russia's war by pressuring Ukraine to cede Crimea and Donbas to Moscow, which was denied by his advisor.

According to a former advisor to Trump, the former president made it very clear that he believed Ukraine must be part of Russia.

Despite his comments, Trump reportedly voiced support for House Speaker Mike Johnson, following a vote on military aid for Ukraine after months of delays, and has previously suggested providing Ukraine aid as loans.

Bloomberg: US leading efforts within G7 to develop $50 billion aid package to Ukraine

The United States is leading talks among the Group of Seven (G7) nations to develop a military aid package to Ukraine worth up to $50 billion, Bloomberg reported on May 3. The package would reportedly be funded by the profits generated by accrued interest on frozen Russian assets.

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FT: US aid to Ukraine will help Ukraine launch counteroffensive in 2025, Sullivan says - Kyiv Independent

Ukraine highlights Russia’s ‘line of hell.’ Claim of dozens of tanks and military vehicles destroyed on one sector of the … – Yahoo! Voices

Ukraine's armed forces released a video claiming to show 42 destroyed Russian military vehicles.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry described the scenes as a"line to hell."

Fighting has intensified in the Donetsk region in recent months as Russia pushes further past Avdiivka.

Ukraine's armed forces claim to have destroyed 42 Russian tanks and military vehicles in the eastern region of Donetsk.

A video shared by Ukraine's 58th Motorized Brigade appears to show the wrecks of the vehicles.

A caption accompanying the video reads: "It seems that in recent weeks, Putin's generals have been making a large-scale sacrifice to their hellish gods, throwing new forces and equipment to their death."

"The result is dozens of burned-out Russian tanks and armored vehicles," it continues.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry reshared the video on X, formerly Twitter, writing: "A line to hell. Dozens of Russian tanks and combat vehicles were destroyed on a small section of the front in the Donetsk region."

Business Insider was unable to independently verify when or where the footage was taken.

Fighting has intensified in the Donetsk region in recent months as Russia pushes to take more ground around the already-captured city of Avdiivka.

Russian forces are currently targeting the strategically important city of Chasiv Yar, just to the north.

Ukrainian officials believe that Russia is now intent on seizing the regions of both Donetsk and Luhansk in 2024.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank reported in February that Russia's campaign around Avdiivka had resulted in significant losses to both equipment and personnel.

The report said that at that time, Russia had lost 8,800 armored fighting vehicles since it launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The director-general of the IISS also said in February that Russia had likely lost more than 3,000 tanks since the invasion began.

"To put that into perspective, Russia's battlefield tank losses are greater than the number it had when it launched its offensive in 2022," he wrote.

Dutch open-source intelligence website Oryx puts visually confirmed Russian tank losses since the start of the conflict at just under 3,000.

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Ukraine highlights Russia's 'line of hell.' Claim of dozens of tanks and military vehicles destroyed on one sector of the ... - Yahoo! Voices