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Tuesday's primary in North Carolina offers the latest round in the tea party vs. the GOP establishment battle for the U.S. Senate, and so far the establishment appears to be winning.

Both the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Karl Rove's American Crossroads have thrown their support and dollars behind Thom Tillis, speaker of the state House, as party elders try to secure their favored candidate to confront first-term Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in November.

But it's Greg Brannon, a conservative, Christian ob-gyn -- who was born in Inglewood, Calif., and graduated from USC -- who has captured the passion of the tea party-aligned wing of the GOP. Brannon's allies say Tillis is not conservative enough for Washington.

On Monday, surrogates swooped into North Carolina from the highest rungs of the party's divided ladder for the slugfest. Tea party hero Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) stumped in the Tar Heel State for Brannon, while former GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney announced his support for Tillis.

Like elsewhere in the Senate races, the hard-line GOP candidates are being brushed back by an onslaught of support from the establishment. Party leaders are trying to avoid nominating extreme candidates that could dash GOP hopes of gaining the six seats they need to retake control of the Senate in midterm elections this fall.

A similar battle has already been won in Texas, where Sen. John Cornyn, the No. 2 Republican in the Senate, trounced his primary challenger in March. In June, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham appears well-positioned to swat back a cast of challengers in South Carolina.

The next big skirmish happens later this month when Republican Sen. Thad Cochran of Mississippi and Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Senate minority leader, take on their tea-party-aligned challengers.

Hagan is among the most vulnerable Democrats up for reelection this fall, and her campaign is increasingly worried about a Tillis victory, as polls show him leading Brannon.

Hagan's camp took the unusual step of recently running a radio ad apparently intended to help Brannon, whom experts say would be easier for her to beat in the general election. The ad tears into Tillis' support for certain aspects of Obamacare, portraying him as soft on a signature GOP issue.

Hagan, who supported Obamacare, defended the ad, accusing Tillis of waffling on the healthcare law.

Original post:
It's tea party vs. GOP establishment in North Carolina primary

(CNN) -

Voters in North Carolina, Indiana and Ohio on Tuesday kick off five straight weeks of primary contests that could give us a clearer indication of whether establishment Republicans have the upper hand against the tea party movement for control of the party.

The results could back up recent tough talk from Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, who predicted big wins for incumbents facing primary challenges from the right, saying, "I think we are going to crush them everywhere."

And they may have a major impact in determining whether Republicans have a chance to retake the majority in the Senate.

Since the birth of the tea party movement in 2009, primary challenges from the right have produced major headlines and headaches for the GOP and hurt the party's chances of winning back the Senate from Democrats in the past two election cycles. Candidates backed by the tea party movement and other grass-roots conservatives effectively cost the GOP five winnable Senate elections the last two cycles in Nevada, Delaware, Colorado, Indiana and Missouri.

Two months ago, McConnell, whom the right sees as part of the problem in Washington, told The New York Times that when it came to tea party challenges, "I don't think they are going to have a single nominee anywhere in the country."

His prediction might come true.

Establishment leaders say they have learned their lessons from the past two elections and are better at counterattacking this time around.

So why do incumbents and establishment-backed candidates appear to have the upper hand this time around?

"I don't think we can say that the tea party movement is dead, but there seems to be less enthusiasm among their activists and supporters this year," said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, a top campaign handicapper. "Establishment Republicans and incumbents have learned to run against tea party-backed candidates."

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