May Primary Showdowns To Test Tea Party's Relevance
Mays test for the Tea Party
More than a month has passed without a 2014 Senate primary race, but that is about to change. Two weeks from today, the first of several competitive GOP primaries in May will take place. And if theres a common theme in several of these contests, its that the Republican establishment candidates appear to have the edge -- at least right now -- which presents a test for the Tea Party. In North Carolina (May 6), the Chamber of Commerce-backed Thom Tillis has the advantage, although a potential runoff (if no one gets more than 40% of the vote) could make things much more interesting for the North Carolina state House speaker. In Kentucky (May 20), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell looks to be solid shape against Tea Party challenger Matt Bevin (dont miss the new McConnell and Bevin TV ads). In Georgia (also May 20), the top-two candidates are the establishment-backed David Perdue and GOP Rep. Jack Kingston; by contrast, the most conservative Republicans (Reps. Paul Broun and Phil Gingrey) are trailing the field. And in Oregon (also May 20), the AP is calling abortion-rights supporter Monica Wehby as the biggest threat to incumbent Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR).
The establishment strikes back?
This is perhaps why so many outside conservative groups are focused so heavily in backing Ben Sasse against Shane Osborn in Nebraskas GOP Senate primary (on May 13). It also raises the stakes in the competitive House GOP primary in Idaho featuring incumbent Rep Mike Simpson vs. challenger Bryan Smith (May 20). And dont forget the Texas runoff between incumbent Rep. Ralph Hall and challenger John Ratcliffe (May 27), where Hall is probably the underdog to hold onto his job. We maintain that the Tea Party still remains a powerful force in Republican politics -- remember that 41% of GOP voters voted against Sen. John Cornyn in Marchs Texas primary. And there are many competitive primaries to watch in the months ahead (in Kansas, Mississippi, and South Carolina). But right now, the establishment has been fighting back and it appears to have the early edge in many of Mays contests. They ignored them in 2010, the Cook Political Reports Jennifer Duffy says of the establishment against the Tea Party. In 2012, they tried to be one of them. And in 2014, theyre just fighting back.
Democrats trying to influence these GOP primaries
Of course, one other thing is happening in these GOP primaries: Democrats are trying to influence their outcome. In North Carolina, Sen. Kay Hagans (D) campaign is up with this VERY interesting radio ad: Heres Republican Senate candidate Thom Tillis describing Obamacare: Its a great idea. Thats right, Thom Tillis called Obamacare a great idea. Geez, you think the Hagan camp is suggesting to North Carolina GOP voters that Tillis is an Obamacare-loving RINO? And while Democrats have done nothing overtly in Georgia, theres no doubt theyd love for either Broun or Gingrey to make the runoff. But for every action, theres an equal and opposite reaction: Weve been told that establishment Republicans will do everything they can to aid a Thom Tillis or a Jack Kingston in a runoff -- if theyre facing a Tea Party candidate.
Watching the Dem primary in Pennsylvania
Meanwhile, the biggest Democratic primary in May is the Pennsylvania gubernatorial contest (May 20) for the right to take on vulnerable Gov. Tom Corbett (R) in November. The relatively new front-runner in that race is businessman Tom Wolf, who shot up in the polls due to his early TV ad onslaught. Also running: Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D-PA) and state Treasurer Rob McCord.
Heres your primary calendar for May
May 6: IN, NC, OH primaries
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May Primary Showdowns To Test Tea Party's Relevance