Tea Party challengers keep Republican establishment on edge
The Republican Partys path to a majority in the Senate in Novembers midterm elections wasnt supposed to go through Kentucky. It does now.
Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, needed to an overwhelming victory in Tuesdays primary to show he could unite Kentuckys restive Tea Party supporters under the Republican banner and scare off out-of-state Democratic donors.
He beat Matt Bevin, a Louisville businessman backed by various Tea Party groups, with 60 per cent of the vote. The result was decisive, another victory in the Republican establishments campaign this year to block Tea Party groups from taking over nomination contests that result in unelectable candidates.
The establishment of party elders and Washington-based lobbyists also got the candidates it wanted in Georgia and Oregon, solidifying its control and boosting the odds that the Republicans will pick up the seats they need to retake control of the Senate in November.
Yet questions will linger about Mr. McConnells ability to deliver Republican votes after 29 years in office. He spent more than $11-million (U.S.) to beat an opponent who never before had run for office. Its reasonable to wonder whether all that money and the power of incumbency didnt bring an even wider margin of victory.
Other establishment figures had an easier time. The Republican candidate who will challenge Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor in a winnable race for Senate in Arkansas won his partys nomination unopposed Tuesday. House Speaker John Boehner earlier this month won his Ohio primary with 69 per cent of the vote.
Mr. McConnells opponent in the midterms, Alison Lundergan Grimes, a 35-year-old state official, was the choice of 76 per cent of Democratic voters, suggesting her election machine is primed for the difficult task of flipping a state that voted for Bill Clinton but has little affection for the current president, Barack Obama. Recent polls put Ms. Grimes and Mr. McConnell in a statistical tie.
Six states held primaries Tuesday, narrowing the field of candidates seeking federal and state offices. While there were dozens of races, none mattered more than those few that will decide whether Republicans take control of the Senate in Washington. Republicans have a comfortable margin in the House of Representatives and with Mr. Obamas approval rating around 40 per cent, there is little reason to think Mr. Boehner will lose his majority.
Republicans need a net gain of six seats to win the majority in the Senate in November and the Democratic Party will be defending seven seats in states won by Mr. Obamas opponent, Mitt Romney, in 2012. Most election forecasters give the Republicans better than even odds of pulling it off.
Those projections assume Republicans hold the seats they currently have. The results in Kentucky suggest Mr. McConnell, at a minimum, has a race on his hands. That will force him and the party to commit time and money to playing defence. The prospect of a candidate capable of taking down one of Washingtons most powerful Republicans already has helped Ms. Grimes raise more than $8-million (U.S.). Her show of strength Tuesday should help her attract even more.
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Tea Party challengers keep Republican establishment on edge