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Republicans gain influence in Fulton government

A Fulton County Commission long the domain of Democrats is about to get an infusion of Republicans bent on remaking government in Georgias largest county.

With no Democratic opposition in the November general election, two new Republicans Bob Ellis of Milton and Lee Morris of Atlanta will join incumbent Republican Liz Hausmann of Johns Creek to give the party a bigger say in Fulton affairs than its had in years. Exactly how big a say remains to be seen.

Two other Republicans candidates face tough general election contests against veteran Democratic incumbents.

But even if Republicans dont gain a majority on the seven-member commission, theyre confident their vision of a smaller, more effective government will resonate with their Democratic colleagues at a time when Fulton is struggling to pay for popular services like libraries and senior programs.

I dont think anybody wants to waste tax dollars, Ellis said. If theres a way for us to become more efficient and effective, particularly in (administrative) areas, I see that as a win-win opportunity for everybody.

Democrats have controlled the Fulton Board of Commissioners for decades. For nearly 20 years beginning in the mid-70s, Tom Lowe of Atlanta was the commissions lone Republican. But the party picked up a second and third seat beginning in the mid-1990s. That era of growing Republican influence coincided with north Fulton residents rising discontent with county government discontent manifested in tax revolts and the formation of new cities.

But Fulton remains a Democratic stronghold President Barack Obama won 64 percent of the county vote in 2012. And many Democrats on the county commission have traditionally supported robust county services for the poor, the homeless, the sick and the elderly.

Since 2007, Hausmann and the-soon-to-retire Lowe have been the commissions only Republicans. Lowe, 85, has been slowed by health problems. Thats sometimes left Hausmann as the lone Republican voice advocating for smaller government.

That will change next year because of a Republican redistricting plan approved by the General Assembly. The plan eliminated one of two at-large commission seats in favor of a new north Fulton district. It also pitted two veteran Democrats Emma Darnell and Bill Edwards against each other in this years primary. Darnell won a narrow victory on Tuesday and is the heavy favorite over Republican Abraham Watson in November.

In the chairmans race, incumbent John Eaves leads fellow Democrat Robb Pitts by a few hundred votes, and Pitts has said he may request a recount after the election is certified Tuesday. The winner will face political newcomer Republican Earl Cooper in November.

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Republicans gain influence in Fulton government

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Republicans need a positive message to win back the White House in 2016

But surprisingly perhaps, this week's big victory for the party machine was not greeted with overt displays of jubilation at Republican HQ in Washington. "It's more like relief," was how one senior official described the mood.

That note of caution raises important questions about whether the Republican mainstream is really beginning to win the argument.

The first question is whether the Tea Party's influence over the last four years has ensured that today's "mainstream" Republican candidate is actually running significantly to the right on the major issues such as tax, immigration, welfare and spending.

So when John Boehner - the Republican Speaker of the House who has not hidden his frustration with the intransigent right - says there's "not that big a difference" between Tea Partiers and the average conservative Republican, it's not just an appeal for unity. It also happens to be the truth.

That's how a candidate like Joni Ernst - a Harley Davidson-riding, gun-loving former soldier who says her experience "castrating hogs" on her Iowa farm will be useful in "fixing" Washington - can find herself being endorsed by both Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin.

The big bind for Republicans is that while tacking right might well help them re-take the Senate, recent electoral history suggests it will poison their prospects at the general election in 2016.

The voters who turn out in the mid-term voters are much older, whiter and more Republican-leaning than in a general election. In the 2010 mid-terms, 77 per cent of voters were white, the same percentage of whites in the US population in 1983.

The danger - as Whit Ayres, a highly experienced Republican pollster, warns - is that a resounding Republican victory in 2014, thanks to a favourable electorate voting in Republican-leaning states, risks the party drawing the "all the wrong lessons".

The same old tone and policies on immigration, welfare and social issues, that broadly appeals to the America of 1983 is not going to wash with the more liberal, multi-cultural and socially tolerant America that will vote in 2016.

Unfortunately, acknowledging this reality - as many moderate Republicans do in private - is not the same as acting up on it.

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Republicans need a positive message to win back the White House in 2016