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Republicans have more seats to defend in special elections after a close shave in a dependably GOP Kansas district.

A higher-profile election April 18 in Georgia produced no majority-vote winner and is going to a second round in June. DemocratJon Ossoff, a former congressional aide, and RepublicanKaren Handel, a former Georgia secretary of state, were the top two finishers in an 18-candidate scrum.

Special elections are on tap in Montana next month and in California and South Carolina in June. There probably will be one more, in a Pennsylvania district, and were keeping our eye on two possible additions, in Oklahoma and Utah.

Republicans would be the defending party in every district except in California.

Alabama this year will have an unusual, odd-year Senate special election, scheduled by the states brand-new governor.

As of April 25, whenRon Estesof Kansas is sworn in, the House will have 238 Republicans and 193 Democrats.

Heres what you need to know about the upcoming contests:

After the close races in Kansas and Georgia, watch to see how much national party organizations and activist groups intervene in the contest between Republican businessmanGreg Gianforteand Democratic musician Rob Quist. Theyre seeking the statewide congressional district RepublicanRyan Zinke vacated to become Interior Secretary.

Montana votes Republican in presidential elections but can split its tickets. It backed Donald Trump by more than 20 percentage points in the 2016 election while also re-electing Democratic GovernorSteve Bullockover Gianforte by four points.

Vermont SenatorBernie Sanders, an independent who sought the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, will campaign with Quist next month. Gianforte raised $1.6 million compared with $904,000 for Quist through the end of March, according to Federal Election Commission reports.

In an all-Democratic runoff, state Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez and lawyer Robert Lee Ahn are seeking a Hispanic-majority, downtown Los Angeles district thats one of the most strongly Democratic areas in the nation.

In the first-round election on April 4, Gomez had 25 percent and Ahn had 22 percent to lead the 23-candidate field and advance to the runoff. The winner will succeed DemocratXavier Becerra, who resigned in January to become Californias attorney general.

Gomez is the preferred candidate of California Democratic leaders, including Becerra and Los Angeles MayorEric Garcetti. Ahn, who was born to South Korean immigrants, advanced to the runoff with strong support from Korean-American voters and donors. Californias 34th includes more Korean-Americans than any other congressional district.

Ossoff and Democrats almost succeeded in their campaign to win without a runoff and "flip the 6th," a Republican-leaning area north of Atlanta packed with highly educated suburbanites. Ossoff took 48 percent of the vote in the first-round election, more than Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama won in the district when they were the Democratic presidential nominees.

Though Georgias 6th is an atypical host for a competitive and consequential House election, its electorate barely opted for Trump in the 2016 election after decades of domination by other GOP candidates includingTom Price, who left to become Trumps health and human services secretary.

Handel, who won 20 percent of all votes in the first-round election, is working to replenish her campaign treasury and unify Republican base voters against Ossoff. She won 39 percent of all Republican votes cast, while Ossoff amassed more than 98 percent of all Democratic votes.

An Ossoff-Handel contest "starts out very competitive," political analyst David Wasserman wrote in the Cook Political Report. He rates the race as a tossup.

Trump is paying attention. "It is now Hollywood vs. Georgia on June 20th," the president wrote on Twitter. Ossoff raised more than $8.3 million from donors including Rosie ODonnell andJane Fonda.

Georgia House Race Heads to Runoff

Seven Republicans and three Democrats are seeking a Republican-leaning district that includes Rock Hill and other territory in north-central South Carolina. The party primaries will be held May 2, followed by runoffs, if necessary, on May 16.

The Republican nominee will be favored to succeed RepublicanMick Mulvaney, who resigned in February to become Trumps budget director. Republican candidates include state representative Tommy Pope, former state legislator Ralph Norman, and former state party chairmanChad Connelly.

Connelly aligned with Trump in a campaign commercial featuring praise from two men, one wearing a red hat with the presidents "Make America Great Again" slogan and the other calling Connelly a "big-time Trump guy." A Pope TV spot played up his background as a former police officer and prosecutor. Norman, who lost a bid for this district in 2006, released an ad featuring his 15 grandchildren and highlighting a commitment to "making sure their future and yours is safe and full of opportunity."

Republican GovernorKay Ivey moved the special election for the seat formerly held by Attorney GeneralJeff Sessionsup 11 months, rescinding the November 2018 election set by her predecessor,Robert Bentley, when he appointed state Attorney GeneralLuther Strangeto temporarily fill the vacancy. Bentley just resigned amid scandal and impeachment hearings.

"This special election will remove any cloud of doubt that might have been associated with the previous process used by the former governor" and "returns the authority to select their representative back to the people," Ivey said.

Given Alabamas strong Republican lean, the decisive election may be the GOP primary on Aug. 15 or a runoff Sept. 26. Strange, whos running to serve the rest of the unexpired term won by Sessions, may face multiple challengers in the primary, given his association with Bentley. One of them may be RepresentativeRobert Aderholt, who was in the running for the Senate appointment. Aderholt wouldnt have to give up his House seat to compete.

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RepublicanTom Marinoplans to resign to become Trumps "drug czar," leading the Office of National Drug Control Policy,CBS News reported. Marino, in office since 2011, hasnt publicly commented on the matter. His district in parts of central and northeastern Pennsylvania is rock-ribbed Republican territory, giving 66 percent to Trump and 62 percent to Republican SenatorPat Toomey in 2016, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

RepublicanJim Bridenstinewould vacate a Republican-friendly Tulsa district if Trump taps him to lead the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

RepublicanJason Chaffetzannounced his retirement lastweek and then said he may resign. The district is so strongly Republican that Clinton came in third there in 2016 behind Trump and Utah-born independent Evan McMullin, who is weighing a campaign to succeed Chaffetz.

Original post:
Here Are the Next Seats Republicans Will Have to Defend in Special Elections - Bloomberg

Democratic nominee Rob Quist

After their close call with a first-round knockout in last Tuesdays Georgia 6th District special election, national Republicans are sounding the alarms ahead of Montanas own May 25 special election for its lone House seat.

The NRCC has added $1.2 million in TV ad reservations, while the House GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC is airing a new ad that attacks Democrat Rob Quist as part of an $800,000 buy. CLF tries to tie Quist to Nancy Pelosi, skewering him for wanting government-funded health care and supposedly supporting cuts to the defense budget, while they also hit him for his past debt troubles.

Meanwhile, Republican Greg Gianforte released an ad that warns Quist wants a national gun registry in a big government computer, which Gianforte claims could lead to federal bureaucrats [grabbing] your guns. Gianforte then fires a shotgun at a computer monitor flashing the word confiscate and destroys it, promising hell stand up for the 2nd Amendment.Gianfortes spot is hammering Quist over an earlier interview where Quist suggestedregistering assault weapons like one registers a car, a common-sense gun safety proposal that sends the NRA into a frenzy.

Can you give$3 to help Rob Quist to shock Republicans and turn Montana blue?

Read this article:
Worried Republicans pour money into Montana House special election following near-loss in Georgia - Daily Kos

#teachers By Trevor Brown | 9 hours ago

More than two-thirds of the way through the legislative session, House Republicans budget strategy is slowly coming into focus.

Legislative leaders rolled out some of their first revenue-raising proposals this week with the introduction of five bills, which target delinquent taxpayers, remove the sales tax exemption for Thunder tickets and cap a rebate used to lure filmmakers to Oklahoma. The proposals are expected to generate about $28 million annually a fraction of the $878 million budget shortfall that lawmakers face for the upcoming fiscal year. The proposals offer a glimpse of whats in store for the coming days and weeks, and with a Thursday deadline for bills to be voted off the floor before going to the governor or conference committee, lawmakers are beginning to be up against the clock.

GOP leaders say this is the first round of attempts to to slash tax deductions and credits even those that were endorsed by an incentives review panel as recently as November and reconsider a portion of Gov. Mary Fallins controversial proposal to collect sales taxes on many currently exempt goods and services.

There will be a lot of activity moving forward, said House Speaker Charles McCall, R-Atoka, who, along with other GOP legislative leaders, has faced criticism from Democrats for coming out with more specific budget proposals. And there will be a lot of measures to roll out and discuss as we move forward.

McCall said he expects details of these proposals to be released and debated by lawmakers in the next two weeks.

These could include raising motor vehicle and cigarette taxes, increasing the income tax for high earners and lifting the gross production tax on oil and gas up to 7 percent. All are politically challenging and would require a three-fourths supermajority in both chambers.

Sales Tax Exemption Cuts Back on Table

When Fallin unveiled her plan in early February to raise $934 million by broadening the states sales tax base, it immediately got a cold reception from both Democrats and her own party.

Her proposal called for removing sales tax exemptions on more than 160 services, including utility bills, haircuts and car repairs. But the proposal was a non-starter in the Legislature after dozens of GOP lawmakers came out against it and Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb quit his cabinet post over it.

The proposal, at least in a scaled-down version, seems to have new life.

Both Republicans and Democrats now say they are open to looking at some of the sales tax exemptions, including collecting sales taxes on NBA and NHL games, which easily won approval in the House on Wednesday.

McCall said more sales tax exemption proposals are coming. House and Senate budget committee chairs introduced more than 30 shell bills this week dealing with tax changes.

These bills contents are a mystery. And McCall offered few clues Thursday of what exemptions his caucus is looking at and how much money they will generate.

He said legislative leaders are also still trying to determine how much support they can garner from conservatives, many of whom who campaigned against raising taxes, and Democrats who say they oppose proposals that target low-income or middle-class residents.

Democrats, for their part, have proposed deleting 40 sales tax exemptions worth $290 million a year as part of the budget plan they released last month. They include exemptions for construction contractors, fur storage, management services and digital goods and software.

But Minority Leader Scott Inman, D-Del City, said there are some exemptions Democrats would not support removing. For example, he said, getting rid of the exemption on cable TV services something that would generate $118 million a year is a proposal they would not back.

Our caucus will stand opposed to those measures, because at the end of the day you dont solve the budget problem by raising taxes on middle-class families, Inman said. You do it by restoring the cuts that got us into this mess, in particular the gross production tax.

But whether Republicans will need Democrats is another question.

House Republicans now control 72 votes in the chamber, well more than enough to clear the 51-vote threshold even with a number of defections. But Republicans would need Democrats to clear the three-fourths, 76-vote threshold, which the state Constitution requires for revenue bills.

Although some have argued that removing the sales tax exemptions will require the three-fourths vote, McCall said House leaders believe a simple majority vote is all that is needed.

If bills that pass with less than three-fourths support are later challenged in court and reversed, lawmakers could be forced into a special session to create a new budget.

Tax Cuts to Get Closer Scrutiny

Legislative leaders began to examine the hundreds of tax credits and rebates the state offers with the creation of the Incentive Evaluation Commission in 2015.

That group looked at 11 tax breaks last year and plans to look at 12 more this year. But lawmakers dont plan to wait for the panel to conclude its work or necessarily follow the groups recommendations.

This was evident Wednesday when the House ignored the panels advice to keep the film rebate program until it sunsets in 2024 and instead passed a bill that would lower the rebate cap from $5 million to $4 million a year.

Former House budget chairman Rep. Earl Sears, R-Bartlesville, said he supports the program and believes it brings a positive return on investment for the state. But he said reducing the rebates is part of the GOPs broader strategy to cap or cut credits, even those that are popular.

You will see some others coming in the near future, he said.

Looking at Other Options

Inman said Democrats would welcome a review of any tax credits. But he cautioned that lawmakers will not be able to nickel and dime their way to bridging the shortfall and finding an additional $53 million to fund the first year of teacher pay raises.

McCall, however, said plenty of options remain to close the budget gap and fulfill the Houses promise to fund a $1,000-per-teacher raise for next year.

Options include potentially using $300 million in bonds to help shore up the budget.

McCall wouldnt confirm the amount of bonding that lawmakers are exploring. But he said it makes sense to borrow money even though Fallin and many lawmakers in both parties have stated they want to avoid the use of one-time revenues.

Bonding is something that is always considered when you are in a contraction cycle, such as what weve been in the last few years, he said. I cant say its a firm part of our budget plan, but I can confirm there has been discussions about bonds.

Reach reporter Trevor Brown at tbrown@oklahomawatch.org.

Continue reading here:
Republicans' Budget Strategy Emerges into View - Oklahoma Watch

A progressive activist organization with ties to former President Obama is launching an immigration-focused ad campaign targeting Republicans who represent Latino-heavy districts.

Organizing for Action (OFA), an offshoot of Obama's 2012 presidential campaign, will launch the static web ads in Arizona, Nevada, Texas, California, Colorado, Florida and Pennsylvania.

The ads, which ask constituents to tell their representatives "not to fund the administration's wall and deportation force," will be aimed at 17 House members and four senators, showing a lawmaker's photo with a phone number.

Coming back from a two-week recessMonday, Congress must reach a deal to fund the government beforeApril 28to avoid a shutdown.

Many of the members targeted by OFA's campaign have avoided outright support for the wall, President Trump's signature campaign proposal, and some have publicly come out against it.

Reps. Will Hurd (R-Texas) and Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.) are also being targeted. Both have come out against the border wall plan but narrowly unseated Democrats in 2014.

The ads will also focus on Arizona Rep. Martha McSally; California Reps. Jeff Denham, David Valadao, Devin Nunes, Steve Knight, Ed Royce and Darrell Issa; Colorado Reps. Scott Tipton and Mike Coffman; Florida Reps. Brian Mast, Mario Diaz-Balart and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen; Pennsylvania Rep. Charlie Dent; and Texas Reps. John Culberson and Pete Sessions.

Excerpt from:
Obama-linked group launches ads targeting Republicans on immigration - The Hill

Missouri Republicans are no strangers to inaccurate and offensive language, especially when it comes to abortion. Just like former U.S. Rep. Todd Akins now infamous line, If its a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down, conservatives in the Missouri legislature have made similar horrifying statements.

State Senators Bob Onder (R-Lake St. Louis) and Wayne Wallingford (R-Cape Girardeau) recently gained national attention when they spoke in opposition to a proposed tax increase benefitting the St. Louis Zoo, because they oppose St. Louis Board Bill 203, the reproductive nondiscrimination ordinance, which was signed into law in February. Onder, whose bill targeting abortion clinics had been opposed through filibuster the night before, said falsely that zoos are more heavily regulated than abortion clinics in Missouri. Missouri is currently the third most restrictive state in the country specific to abortion access, with only one remaining clinic serving over 3 million women.

What was not mentioned in all of the media coverage of Onder was the exchange between Onder had state Sen. Ed Emery (R-Lamar) while debating a bill that would extend SNAP (food assistance) benefits to the elderly at farmers markets.

During that exchange, Emery said that since 1973, when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled on Roe v. Wade, Fifteen and a half million African American babies have been slain in abortions in that same period of time. He went on to compare, as Rep. Mike Moon (R-Ash Grove) had previously done, the abortion rates in the African-American community to the Holocaust.

Unfortunately, Emerys inaccurate rant did not stop there. He went on to misappropriate quotes from Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and his stance on abortion.

Emery: Martin Luther King said, The negro cannot win as long as he is willing to sacrifice the lives of his children for comfort and safety. That was Dr. Martin Luther King, great man.

Onder: Now when the Reverend King said that, was he talking about abortion?

Emery: He was talking about abortion.

In fact, in 1960, King served on a committee for a Planned Parenthood study on contraception, explaining, I have always been deeply interested in and sympathetic with the total work of the Planned Parenthood Federation. He repeatedly wrote about why family planning programs are important, and why they need to be funded by the government. In 1966, King received a Margaret Sanger award from Planned Parenthood in recognition of excellence and leadership in furthering reproductive health and reproductive rights.

King saw a clear link between the struggle for racial equality and the struggle for reproductive justice. In the acceptance speech he wrote for his award from Planned Parenthoodwhich his wife, Coretta Scott King, accepted in his placehe explained that reproductive rights activists like Planned Parenthoods Margaret Sanger help further broader movements for equality.

Margaret Sanger had to commit what was then called a crime in order to enrich humanity, and today we honor her courage and vision; for without them there would have been no beginning, King wrote. Our sure beginning in the struggle for equality by nonviolent direct action may not have been so resolute without the tradition established by Margaret Sanger and people like her. He went on to say that the African-American community has a special and urgent concern with issues of family planning.

The attempted link between race and abortion to justify opposition to legal abortion is inherently racist. There is no evidence that the reproductive rights movement targets black women, and reproductive justice leaders like Loretta Ross and Dr. Willie Parker say the notion is simply a right-wing effort to drive a wedge into the African-American community. We see evidence of this anti-choice agenda in bills like House Bill 252, which would criminalize pregnant women, like they have in Indiana and Tennessee, or by not expanding Medicaid.

Of course, black women have had very little reproductive choice, historically. During slavery, black women endured forced childbirth. Later, many black women were ordered sterilized by state or local agencies, often without their consent or knowledge. More recently, black women have had to bear the burden of the racist welfare mom stereotype.

The continued dehumanizing debate by white male legislators on womens bodies and the black community continues the trend in Missouri of anti-abortion legislators attempting to make the case that women should not make their own reproductive decisions. Again, the lives of women and especially black women do not matter to these legislators.

The leadership in Jefferson City needs to stop the racist lies about abortion and start working in ways to increase health care access for all Missourians.

Alison Dreith is executive director of NARAL Pro-Choice Missouri.

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Setting Missouri Republicans straight on MLK and abortion - St. Louis American