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Something unusual and important is happening in Congress: Republicans and Democrats are working together to improve the health care system. And theyre doing so in defiance of President Trump, who appears determined to sabotage the Affordable Care Act and the health insurance of millions of people.

This surprising if modest burst of bipartisanship comes just days after the Senate failed to pass a Republican bill to repeal important provisions of the A.C.A., or Obamacare. On Monday 43 members of the House outlined a proposal to strengthen the insurance marketplaces created by the 2010 law. On Tuesday Lamar Alexander and Patty Murray, the Republican and Democratic leaders of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, said they would hold hearings and introduce a bill to cut premiums and encourage insurers to sell policies on the marketplaces for 2018.

It is, of course, impossible to know if such efforts will succeed. Even if they result in legislation, Republican leaders could refuse to bring it to the floor for a vote. Having treated Obamacare as a political piata for seven years, Republicans might find it hard to actually help the program. Another danger is that Mr. Trump and his health and human services secretary, Tom Price, could try to pre-emptively weaken the marketplaces through administrative measures. Still, its good to see politicians actually doing their jobs. The sight of members of both parties working together in the public interest is uplifting, especially after the long partisan campaign to take insurance away from so many Americans.

Contrary to Mr. Trumps tweets, Obamacare is not collapsing. But it needs work, and some insurance markets are in trouble. Insurers have said they will no longer sell policies in 20 counties in Indiana, Nevada and Ohio, and many are proposing to raise premiums because of the uncertainty created by Mr. Trumps threats. Experts say insurers could withdraw from even more counties, especially in rural and suburban areas, if the president sabotages the law.

The biggest fear, one shared by Mr. Alexander and Ms. Murray, is that Mr. Trump will stop subsidies authorized by the A.C.A. to make health care affordable to low-income people. The government pays these subsidies, about $7 billion this year, to insurance companies every month. In exchange, the companies reduce the deductibles and co-pays for people who earn between 100 percent and 250 percent of the federal poverty line, or $12,060 to $30,150 a year for a single person.

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Capitol Shocker: Democrats and Republicans Start Working Together on Health Care - New York Times

By Alexandra Filindra and Laurel Harbridge-Yong By Alexandra Filindra and Laurel Harbridge-Yong August 2 at 5:00 AM

President Trumps political missteps have been severely criticized by Democrats, media observers, legal experts and even police chiefs.Some of these scandals have been viewed as so serious that some legislators and observers,such asVox columnist Matthew Yglesias, have declared that FBI Director James B. Comeys dismissal put impeachment on the table.

But despite passing the sanctions against Russia, which implicitly criticized Trumps policies, few Republican legislators have openly criticizedthe president. There have been a few exceptions including Sens. John McCain (Ariz.), Lindsey O. Graham (S.C.)and Charles E. Grassley (Iowa) but why havent there been more?

Our studies show that Republicans have good reason to keep their criticism to themselves: Alegislator who rebukes Trump risks losing voter support in the next primary.

As he hosted Senate Republicans for a health-care meeting at the White House, July 19, President Trump said he "worried" whether Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) would support a revised GOP health-care bill that collapsed on July 17. (The Washington Post)

Heres how we did our research

To study how Republican voters might respond to Republican politicians who rebuke Trump, we fielded two experiments in May shortly after news broke about the relevant events. One experiment, fielded in early May, related to the Comey firing, and a second, fielded in mid-May, related to the news that, in a meeting with Russian officials, Trump revealed classified intelligence on the Islamic States strategy in Syria. Respondents were recruited on Amazons MTurk platform and included 144 (in early May) and 197 (in mid-May) self-identified Republicans. While not representative of the national population of Republicans, these samples include similarly sized proportions of people who identify with the party strongly and weakly.

[Why did Trump win? More whites and fewer blacks actually voted.]

In each study, respondents who identified as Republicans were split into two groups. All were told about the relevant action and Trumps justification for it.

In the first group, respondents were then told that the Republican leadership echoed Trumps justification. In the second group, however, respondents were told that the Republican leadership condemned the presidents action. We then asked follow-up questions, which we will look atbelow.

Republican voters were more willing to disapprove of the presidents actions if their partys leaders criticized him.

First, we asked respondents whether Trump did the right thing or the wrong thing.

In both experiments, respondents in the second group who had been told that GOP leaders had criticized the president were more likely to say that Trump had done the wrong thing.

[Its time to bust the myth. Most Trump voters were not working class.]

You can see this in the graph below, which shows our results from the Comey experiment. When told that GOP leaders backed Trump, 59 percent of respondents said Trump did the right thing, and only eightpercent said he had done the wrong thing. When told that Trump was rebuked by congressional leaders, 49 percent said he did the right thing, while the number who saidhe did the wrong thing jumped to 25 percent.

Results were similar when we asked about Trump giving classified information to a visiting Russian delegation. The share of Republicans who said Trump did the wrong thing increased from 21 percent, when told GOP leaders supported the president, to 42 percent, when told GOP leaders rebuked the president. This suggests that partisans are more likely to be critical of their leader when the party is critical.

But voters were also critical of their partys leadership.

Second, we asked respondents how much they agreed with the Republican leaderships response. What we found might worry GOP officials who criticize Trump.

When told that the Republican Party leadership supported Trump, voters were significantly more likely to support their leaders than when told that theyd been critical of the president. In the Comey experiment, on a scale from 0 to 1, Republican voters average agreement with their leadership fell from 0.66 to 0.51. In the intelligence experiment, Republican voters average agreement with the party leadership fell from 0.62 to 0.55.

[Thanks to Trump, Germany says it cant rely on the U.S. Heres what that means.]

In another question, we also found that those in the second group were less likely by about 0.12 and 0.07 on the 0 to 1 scale, for the Comey and intelligence studies, respectively to say they thought the Republican Party response was appropriate than those in the first.

Trumps approval rating stayed the same,whether supported or rebuked byother Republicans.

Third, we checked on whether this theoretical Republican rebuke affected Trumps approval rating. It didnt. Even when voters were told that GOP leaders had criticized Trump, it didnt affect their overall approval of the president.

But rebuking the president looked politically risky for members of Congress.

Fourth, but only in the intelligence-sharing experiment, we asked respondents how they would vote in the general election and whether they would support their senator in the next primary if their senator signed on to the leaderships response, positive or negative.

As you can see in the graph, few Republicans would abandon their partys nominee in the general election. But Republican voters who said theyd support their Republican senator in the primary dropped from 88 percent to 77 percent for senators who supposedly signed on to this theoretical rebuke. These numbers do not include respondents who said not sure for how they would vote in the general election; the not sure group was about the same for both groups.

Not surprisingly, Trump supporters were more likely to say they wouldnt support a primary candidate who had criticized the president. For instance, among respondents who had tepid feelings about Trump rating him at 40 on a 100-point feeling thermometer being told that their senator had rebuked Trump did not significantly affect whether the voter said theyd support him or her in the primary.

But among more fervent Trump supporters those who gave him an 80 on the feeling thermometer their likelihood of supporting the senator in a primary election fell from 97 percent to 75 based on whether they were told he/she supported or criticized the president. Thats a statistically significant difference of 22 percentage points.

Although not a typical Republican in any way, Trump has cultivated a strong personal following among the Republican base. Loyalty to Trump may lead strong partisans to penalize Republican critics as disloyal. Recent reports suggest that some Republicans who dislike Trump are leaving the party. That means the hold that Trump has on the remaining base may be even more of a problem for critics within the party.

Alexandra Filindra is associate professor of political science andpsychology at the University of Illinois at Chicago, where her research focuses on the effects of race and ethnicity on public policy. Find her on Twitter @aleka1971.

Laurel Harbridge-Yong is associate professor of political science and a faculty fellow at the Institute for Policy Research at Northwestern University andauthor of Is Bipartisanship Dead? Policy Agreement and Agenda-Setting in the House of Representatives(Cambridge University Press, 2015).

Originally posted here:
This is why more Republicans in Congress haven't criticized Trump - Washington Post

But if Republicans abandon their efforts to take health insurance from millions of people as they seem close to doing Democrats should begin confirming more nominees. They made some progress yesterday, approving eight Pentagon nominees.

I understand the instinct that some Democrats have to oppose the Trump administration in every conceivable way. And if Democrats want to hold up some specific nominations to protest Trumps disdain for the rule of law, Id be all for it.

Yet the current level of obstruction should not continue indefinitely.

It would be a mistake for Democrats to set a precedent that would rob future presidents of the ability to staff their own administration.

On the news. The Wall Street Journal refused to publish a transcript of its own interview with the president, apparently to avoid embarrassing both Trump and Gerard Baker, the Journals editor. But Politicos Josh Dawsey and Hadas Gold got the transcript and published it. (I wrote about the battles between Baker and his staff in a February column.)

The Senate confirmed Christopher Wray as the new F.B.I. director yesterday. Lawfares Susan Hennessey and Benjamin Wittes have argued that Wray deserves confirmation but doesnt deserve to serve out his 10-year term: To give Wray his ten years would send a message to all future presidents that there is no cost for removing the FBI director and replacing him or her with your own person.

Kenya, which is holding a presidential campaign, has its own fake news problem, Nanjala Nyabola writes in Foreign Policy: A timid media self-censors political news, opening the door to alternative information sources that arent always truthful.

Reader response. Several of you wrote or tweeted with the names of other people and organizations that helped save health insurance in addition to those I mentioned in yesterdays column.

Among those you mentioned: Adapt and other disability rights activists, including those who were arrested in their wheelchairs; MoveOn; the Protect Our Care coalition; and Planned Parenthood. I know there are many others too.

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Meet Republicans Halfway - New York Times

Republicans are questioning their ability to govern following seven months of constant turmoil capped by the dramatic failure in the Senate to advance ObamaCare repeal.

GOP lawmakers already face serious divisions over the two biggest items left on the agenda: raising the debt ceiling and reforming the tax code.

The problems underscore how moving on from healthcare wont necessarily solve the GOPs problems.

What we have to be able to do is demonstrate that were capable of doing hard things, said Senate Republican Conference Chairman John ThuneJohn ThuneGOP lawmakers, Trump at odds over insurance payments White House: Infrastructure bill remains Trump priority Not in the big city? Your pilot may have less training, thanks to Sen. Thune MORE (S.D.).

Healthcare reform is hard. Tax reform is hard. Weve got to pivot now to tax reform and get an outcome.

The party has no easy way out on the debt-ceiling dilemma. With Republicans in charge of Congress and the White House, the party will get the full blame if it fails to hike the borrowing limit and financial problems ensue.

On tax reform, veteran party voices such as former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) already are saying it would be smarter to lower ambitions and settle for a simpler package of tax cuts.

Emerging from a meeting with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellMitch McConnellDem ad maker cuts new ad in Kentucky for Amy McGrath Dems express interest in working with GOP on bipartisan tax reform McConnell faces questions, but no test to his leadership MORE (R-Ky.) and other Republican senators on Tuesday morning, Gingrich said the best way to demonstrate an ability to govern is to pass something that matters.

Tax cuts are the most important single thing theyre going to do this year, and they need to get them done by Thanksgiving so they can affect the economy by 2018, he told The Hill.

The ObamaCare repeal failure was a jarring experience for many Republican lawmakers who have campaigned on the issue since 2010.

I have all kinds of concerns. Im not going to defend this process or this place. Weve got to keep working at it, said Sen. Ron JohnsonRon JohnsonSen. Johnson: 'We cant move on' because ObamaCare is a mess McConnell faces questions, but no test to his leadership Senate Republicans brush off Trump's healthcare demands MORE (R-Wis.), who was critical throughout the healthcare debate of what he viewed as a haphazard process.

Coming from the business world, having solved many problems, theres a process you follow. That seems to be quite foreign to Washington, D.C., he added. Its a more political process as opposed to a problem-solving process.

In public, Republican lawmakers for the most part have sought to avoid blaming the steady stream of White House distractions and controversies for their legislative record.

Privately, staff and members are more forthcoming.

Its August, we havent gotten anything big done and theres chaos at the White House. Yes, its a concern, said a senior Senate GOP aide.

If we have a crisis over the debt limit, concerns over our ability to govern will intensify, the source added.

The healthcare bill collapsed hours after The New Yorker published a bombshell interview with former White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci that blew the lid off of infighting within President Trumps circle of advisers.

Were horrified by the drama coming out of the White House, said a Republican senator who requested anonymity to comment frankly on the administration.

The lawmaker said the failure of the healthcare bill is a wakeup call and a kick in the butt for Republican senators to get organized or risk falling into what that person described as the disarray of the White House.

We dont want to fall into the same soup, the lawmaker said.

Signs that the GOP infighting is rapidly extending beyond the White House are now evident, suggesting mounting frustration.

Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.), a member of the far-right Freedom Caucus, issued a scathing rebuke of his GOP colleagues this week, declaring, The Republican Party is dead.

In an op-ed in The Denver Post, Buck wrote that Republicans had offered voters a vision for a better America ObamaCare repeal, tax reform, a balanced budget but, so far, have fulfilled none of those conservative promises.

[W]hat have we done? Congress passed an omnibus spending bill that betrays our values. A replacement for Obamacare lies dead on the Senate floor. Weve heard about tax reform but seen nothing yet. Immigration reform is talked about more on Fox News than it is on the House floor, wrote Buck, the former GOP freshman class president who was first elected in 2014.

Buck ended his diatribe with one final insult: calling the GOPs current leaders a B-team of messengers who distract the nation with frivolities.

A senior GOP aide argued that the House has been productive and that the problem is Democratic obstruction in the Senate, where 60 votes are needed to pass most controversial legislation.

Our chamber has been busy passing bills this year, many of which go with little coverage or fanfare, including major ones like the [Department of Veterans Affairs] reform bill and Dodd-Frank repeal, the aide said.

The House is racking and stacking bills for the Senate to act on. We cant control the upper chambers agenda.

Some Republicans are calling on McConnell and other GOP leaders to work more closely with Democrats on big issues such as healthcare and tax reform, making the case that trying to push through major bills on partisan votes is futile when the party is divided between conservatives and moderates.

Some House Republicans say its time to work across the aisle, particularly on issues like the debt ceiling and reauthorization of the Childrens Health Insurance Program, which need to be done by the end of September.

Im predisposed toward getting reforms done in a number of different areas, and if theres a potential for bipartisanship, I think thats the preferred avenue, said Rep. Ryan Costello (R-Pa.), a member of the moderate Tuesday Group whose swing district includes affluent suburbs outside of Philadelphia.

You need 60 votes in the Senate for most things, and I think working backward from that premise can yield more legislative successes.

But conservatives are skeptical that working with Democrats will yield any worthwhile results, laying bare another divide GOP leaders will have to wrestle with in the weeks ahead.

I would welcome working with Democrats. Sadly, Im not optimistic that Democrats have any willingness to work together to get anything done, said conservative Sen. Ted CruzTed CruzEx-Cruz aide: Now Bannon is establishment voice in Trump White House McConnell faces questions, but no test to his leadership Senate Republicans brush off Trump's healthcare demands MORE (R-Texas). The modern Democratic Party is captured by the radical far left.

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Republicans wonder: Can we govern? - The Hill

By Win McNamee/Getty Images.

After their latest attempt to repeal Obamacare died with John McCains knife in its back, Republicans are ready to move on. Theyre officially tuning out Donald Trumps ongoing Twitter tirades about going back to the drawing board, and talking about focusing on the one thing they care about more than slashing Medicaid: slashing tax rates.

Theres plenty riding on the tax-reform effort, for both the G.O.P. and for Trump. For Republican lawmakers, it would mean that having held their noses through the p---y tape, the Russian scandal, Sessionsgate, and Moochghazi might all have been worth it in the end. For Trump, successfully bringing down rates would not only mean putting a win on a scoreboard noticeably devoid of wins, but proving to the business community that he could come through in the clutch.

Of course, there are several monumental obstacles in their way. For starters, theres a reason nobody has re-written the tax code in a meaningful way in 30 years: tax reform is hard. Every tax break, loophole, deduction, subsidy, and credit has a constituency willing to douse Congress in lobbying money to keep their benefits. And thats to say nothing of actual American voters who depend on dozens of tax provisions to pay their mortgages, reduce their liabilities, and put their kids through college. Making matters worse, as always, is the White House itself, which isdespite Trumps tweet yesterday that there is No WH chaos!absolutely plagued by chaos. (So long, Mooch!) There is also the small fact that the president, himself, seems oddly determined to continue tilting at the Obamacare repeal windmill, even though Republican lawmakers are signaling forcefully that theyre ready to let it go.

The biggest obstacle of all, however, is the Democratic Party, which is as committed as ever to seeing the Trump agenda ground to a screeching halt. Worse, theyre effectively taunting Republicans by claiming theyre ready to work together on a bipartisan tax-reform dealessentially calling the G.O.P.s bluff.

In an August 1 letter to the president and G.O.P. leaders, signed by 45 Senate Democrats, Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer wrote, We are writing to express our interest in working with you on bipartisan tax reform. For Republicans who believe they were put on earth to cut taxes, this line must have been music to their ears! Doves must have started singing, storm clouds must have been replaced by blue skies, and they would later tell people they could have sworn the framed photo of Ronald Reagan hanging over their desk smiled and winked. Unfortunately, this line represented the high point of the letter. Because Chuck Schumer was about to drop a bomb:

[The Democratic lawmakers ] made two blunt demands on taxes: They will not back any bill that gives new breaks to the wealthiest individuals and will not back any legislation that adds to the deficit.

Tax reform cannot be a cover story for delivering tax cuts to the wealthiest, the senators wrote. We will not support any tax plan that includes tax cuts for the top 1 percent. The Democrats added that they will not support any effort to pass deficit-financed tax cuts, which would endanger critical programs like Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and other public investments in the future.

Of course, the plan that was put forth by the White House in April expressly delivers tax cuts to the wealthiest, by bringing the top tax rate to 35 percent and eliminating the inheritance tax, to say nothing of the people who will rush to reorganize their businesses as LLCs so that they can pay the corporate tax rate, which Team Trump wants slashed to 15 percent. And when we last checked in, the officials working hard on tax reform still hadnt figured out how to pay for all of their proposed tax cuts, with some people in the White House reportedly happy [to] just blow out the deficit. So yes, Schumer & Co. are totally ready and willing to team up with Republicans to get tax reform done, so long as tax reform looks literally nothing like what Republicans want.

Originally posted here:
Chuck Schumer Trolls Republicans with Impossible Tax-Reform Offer - Vanity Fair