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Republicans Are Poles Apart From The World On Global Warming [Infographic] Forbes U.S. President Donald Trump has announced that he's pulling the United States out of the 2015 Paris climate agreement. The move has come in for widespread international condemnation with the leaders of France, Germany and Italy issuing a joint ...

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Republicans Are Poles Apart From The World On Global Warming [Infographic] - Forbes

ANALYSIS/OPINION:

NEW YORK When Mike Long, the legendary New York Conservative Party chairman, told guests that Kellyanne Conway, the scheduled speaker at the partys annual banquet Thursday night, would be late because President Trump has just announced he is pulling the U.S. out of the Paris climate accord, the room erupted in spontaneous applause.

Mrs. Conway, the omnipresent Trump White House counselor (the job Ed Meese held in the Reagan White House), had been recruited for a spur-of-the-moment why Trump did it interview at the Fox News studios around the corner from Mr. Longs dinner in Manhattan.

The spontaneous cheers of approval instead of tepid, pro forma clapping was a bit surprising. With Democrats outnumbering Republicans by lopsided margins of 108-42 in the N.Y. Assembly, 18-9 in the U.S. House and a Democrat serving as governor, New York is not exactly Trump territory.

Elected swing-district Republicans, plentiful in the Empire State at all levels, are generally considered vulnerable to even the merest whiff of unorthodoxy on climate change. But they and the assembled conservative and GOP and activists, pollsters, consultants and donors were almost overly upbeat about the Trump Paris pullout. That would be understandable for those dinner guests who are proud warriors in the cause of skepticism about climate warmings claimed culprits.

Convincingly unforced smiles lit the faces of those and there were lots who privately confessed concerns about re-election in 2018.

They told me they were telling constituents that the Paris accord pullout didnt mean the U.S. was veering smoky gray instead of easy-breathing green but that the Barack Obama-negotiated Paris compact had been needlessly costly for U.S. jobs and economic health and the president was determined to negotiate a better deal with the other Paris signatories.

This is the core argument in the White House talking points distributed to Republicans nationwide. Because it is so eminently credible as a motto, putting Pittsburgh before Paris works even for Republicans cringing at the prospect of the 2018 elections at least for now, in this one Gotham test tube. (If you want to win office as a Republican almost anywhere in this state, every vote counts; so it helps energize GOP-skeptical conservative voters to be able to boast the endorsement of the Conservative Party.)

With every Republican in the Sheraton Hotel ballroom knowing full well that the GOPs electoral health is mainly in Mr. Trumps hands, Mrs. Conway made that reality look like a better-than-just-doable deal.

She told the diners that Mr. Trump pulled off the biggest surprise win in memory in 2016 for all the reasons most people cite but most important was that he ran as a freedom-first conservative. That line drew applause and emphatic nods from N.Y. state GOP Chairman Ed Cox (the establishment personified), Conservative Party Vice Chairman Allen Roth (a heart-and-soul Trumpster), Congress members John Faso, Lee Zeldin, John Katko and Claudia Tenney, state Senate majority leader John Flanagan and Assemblywoman and Conservative Party candidate for New York Mayor Nicole Malliotakis and dozens of Conservative Party county chairmen.

Asked how she came to be the first woman to manage a successful U.S. presidential campaign, Mrs. Conway said, I want you all to remember it was Donald Trump who gave me that opportunity. The issue of gender never came up in our discussions.

A New Jersey denizen about to relocate in D.C. with her husband and four children, she said that when she lived in New York, she registered to vote as, yes, a member of Mr. Longs Conservative Party.

Ralph Z. Hallow has been covering presidential elections and Washington politics from the nations capital for 35 years.

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Trump has changed climate for vulnerable Republicans, too - Washington Times

On Monday, the 85th Texas Legislative session came to a dramatic close: Protests erupted at the Capitol, a Republican lawmaker called Immigration and Customs Enforcement from the floor to deport a group of alleged undocumented immigrants, and House representatives exchanged alleged threats of violence.

The states Legislature meets for only one 140-day session every two years, so its final days are often fast-paced and tense. But the antics this week shouldnt overshadow the fact that the Texas Legislature churns out bills with reliable efficiency. As stagnation and White House scandals continue to hamper policy efforts in Washington, Texas example shows how conservative lawmakers can get a lot of their agenda done, at least at the state level.

Texas is one of 25 states where Republicans have a so-called trifecta of control over the House, the Senate, and the governors mansion. By the end of the whirlwind session, Gov. Greg Abbott had more than 1,200 bills sitting on his desk, awaiting his signature, many advancing conservative causes that can set the tone for other states.

I think we saw the center of gravity moving to the right, James Henson, director of The Texas Politics Project, explained. I think from a national perspective theres no way to look at what happens in the Texas Legislature and not see it as kind of an avatar of conservatism in the country.

So lets take a look at what they did.

The 85th was a session primarily driven by the social agendas of conservative lawmakers, like border security and documentation, abortion, gun licenses, and whether transgender Texans should be able to use the restroom associated with their gender identity.

Senate Bill 4 is probably the most infamous bill signed by Gov. Abbott, and its now one of the harshest immigration laws in the country. Starting in September, the law will allow police to inquire about the immigration status of people they lawfully detain, as well as ban immigrant sanctuary jurisdictions statewide, and levy fines and jail time on local officials who fail to comply with federal authorities and immigration agents.

Texas also pushed through new restrictions on abortion. Senate Bill 8 requires every health care facility or clinic to bury or cremate fetal remains from abortion, miscarriage, or stillbirth. Providers are also now banned from a common form of second-term abortion termed dilation and evacuation but provocatively called dismemberment by supporters of the bill.

The Supreme Court struck down Texas last attempt at a sweeping abortion law. In 2013, House Bill 2 required abortion clinics to meet costly, hospital-level standards and caused half the abortion clinics in the state to close down. This years abortion bill concentrates on the fetus, not the clinic, but it is likely to face legal challenges too.

Conservatives successfully got a religious freedom bill through to Abbotts desk, which would allow publicly funded adoption agencies to reject would-be parents whose lifestyles they dont like. Christian groups will now be able to legally keep Muslim, Jewish, unmarried, and LGBT couples from adopting.

At a time when the Trump administration and Republicans in D.C. are struggling despite their majority to execute on much of anything, Texas Republicans are a model of legislative efficiency, passing some of the most conservative bills in the country. Thats thanks in part to a culture of caving to the will of the core electorate they need for re-election.

The conservative wing that is again oriented toward a relatively small Republican primary electorate put the elected officials, particularly less ideologically driven legislators, on the spot and forced votes on issues that a lot of people had hoped to avoid, and that includes some of these issues like the more controversial abortion measures, Henson said.

The result? Moderate Texas Republicans think twice about going against party leadership, and legislation that might seem unimaginable at the national level lands on the Governors desk.

Politicians on the Democratic side of the aisle have little to do but protest. Democratic Sen. Jose Rodriguez of El Paso described the 85th session as one of the toughest in recent memory, as rhetoric and policies filtered down from the Trump administration, which rolled into Washington just as the session began. That said, Rodriguez contends D.C. lawmakers have been less effective than Texas Republicans because of Trumps style of leadership.

I think its no secret that Trumps administration has been disorganized from Day One, he said. I mean, the fact that he hasnt even filled a lot of the positions in the State Department and the other major federal agencies tells you that the government is not able to function at the normal level that it does. Whereas in Texas, remember, the Republican Party has been in control now for over 20 years, and its pretty much the same people of the same stripe that continue governing the state.

Conservatives in Texas didnt get everything they hoped for, including a voucher program in a school finance bill, property tax relief, and Texas very own contentious version of a bathroom bill that would require transgender people to use bathrooms corresponding to their biological sex, not their gender identity.

But they still have a chance. Not every bill that misses the end of the regular session remains dead. Gov. Abbott can call lawmakers back to Austin for as many special legislative sessions as he pleases, and there has been speculation that the bathroom bill could catch a second wind soon. On that final, theatrical day in session, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick told senators as they adjourned, Normally, I would say Ill see you in 18 months, God willing! But well see you a little sooner than that.

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Texas Republicans pass 1200 bills, show DC how one-party rule works - VICE News

By Martin Wattenberg By Martin Wattenberg May 31 at 5:00 AM

On a recent episode of Saturday Night Live, Colin Jost opened the news segment by saying, Obviously, Trumps not done yet, but lets just say that Mike Pence is definitely warming up in the bullpen. The (presumably liberal) studio audience in New York applauded probably because they believe that any normal Republican would be better than Trump. Indeed, polls show that Democrats prefer Pence over Trump.

The prospect of a vice president preparing to take over the presidency would usually alarm members of the presidents own party. After all, the president won after many primary victories, and should be very popular with the partys voters. By contrast, the vice president is chosen by the presidential candidate with little or no public input, and is less likely to be known to and popular with the rank-and-file.

[Trump threatened Germany over trade. Heres what you need to know.]

But heres whats really surprising: Pence may be in the unusual position of being more popular than Trump not just among Democrats but also among Republicans. In survey data from the fall of 2016, Pence was the first vice presidential nominee in nearly five decades of data collection to be more popular among his own partys voters than the presidential nominee himself.

Vice-President elect Mike Pence said on Tuesday during remarks to the Heritage Foundation that President-elect Donald Trump's administration will "rebuild" the military and vowed to hunt down members of the Islamic State. (The Washington Post)

The chart below shows the average rating on a feeling thermometer a scale from 0 to 100 that rates how cool or warm respondents feel toward a political figure for the victorious presidential and vice presidential candidate among their own partys supporters. These data come from the American National Election Studies surveys conducted in the fall of every presidential election year.

In every year until 2016, the winning presidential candidate was more popular among his fellow partisans than the vice presidential running mate. Only in 1992, when Bill Clinton held just a two-point advantage over Al Gore among Democrats, was the rating even close.

[Thanks to Trump, Germany says it cant rely on the U.S. What does that mean?]

Until last year, when Republicans rated Pence on average six points higher than they rated Trump.

Why? Did ideologically dedicated conservatives prefer Pences consistently conservative track record to Trumps more variable positions? Or did the party faithful prefer the candidate more strongly identified as a Republican?

[How would removing Trump from office affect U.S. democracy?]

No. Neither of those were related to the preference for Pence. So what was? Views of Trumps character.

One question, for example, asked respondents how well the phrase honest described Trump. Respondents could say anything ranging from extremely well to not well at all. Republicans who thought that Trump was extremely or very honest rated him three points higher than Pence. But a quarter of GOP identifiers thought that Trump was only slightly honest or not at all honest; they rated Pence a striking 15 points higher than the president. And I found the same pattern for questions about how even-tempered and knowledgeable Trump is.

Lets note that these data were collected before Trump was elected. After Trump won and took office, many Republicans have rallied around him. GOP leaders like Paul D. Ryan and Mitch McConnell who maintained a cordial distance from Trump during the campaign warmly embraced him. Republicans in the electorate followed suit, with 84 percent approving of the presidents handling of his job in a recent Gallup poll.

But should the presidents character again be seriously questioned, the Republican preference for Pence could easily reappear with a vengeance. The scandals bubbling around the White House could endanger Trumps presidency. Day after day, news stories have been breaking that give voters reason to question the presidents personal character.

[So what exactly counts as an impeachable offense?]

If more Republicans come to think that the president is not honest, knowledgeable or even-tempered, then more will warm to the notion of President Pence.

One of the turning points in President Richard Nixons downfall was when Vice President Spiro Agnew resigned in a scandal of his own, and congressional leaders insisted on appointing Gerald Ford to replace him. Nixon had joked that no one would try to get rid of him as long as Agnew was next in line. Once the alternative was the trustworthy Ford, the choice between Nixon and his vice president looked quite different.

[Once again, its time to ask: How low can Donald Trumps approval rating go?]

Another major turning point came when seven of the 17 Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee voted to approve an article of impeachment against Nixon. As Republican Lawrence Hogan, father of Marylands current governor, said, The evidence convinces me that my president has lied repeatedly, deceiving public officials and the American people.

If current scandals lead Republicans to reach a similar conclusion about President Trump, many will be quite glad to see Vice President Pence warming up in the bullpen.

Martin Wattenberg is professor of political science at the University of California at Irvine and author of Is Voting for Young People? (Longman, 2007).

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Republicans like Pence better than Trump. That's unprecedented. - Washington Post

Ad will collapse in seconds CLOSE May 31, 2017 05/31/2017 8:51 am By Jonathan Chait Share Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Senate Republicans have a huge problem with an extremely simple solution. The problem is that the American Health Care Act increases the number of uninsured by 23 million, mainly because it cuts a trillion dollars out of financing for Medicaid and tax credits for individual insurance in order to finance a big tax cut. They have a very simple solution: Dont use the health-care bill to finance a huge tax cut. Oddly enough, this solution does not seem to have occurred to any of the Republicans working on their partys plan.

A somewhat surreal Politico story from last week reports that Senate Republicans feel intense gloom over their inability to produce a bill that substantially improves upon the negative-23 million insured in the House version. Senate Republicans also arent sure how much they can improve on a score that, in their view, fell far short of an acceptable outcome, the story reports. A very easy step would be to eliminate the tax cuts, thus eliminating the need to reduce spending for insurance for people who cant afford it on their own.

The report also suggests that Senate Republicans are hampered by special rules that force them to match or exceed the deficit reduction in the House bill:

You know what would be an easy way for the Senate bill to find a lot of budget savings? Take out the huge tax cut!

The 24th paragraph of the 26-paragraph-long story floats the possibility of delaying the tax cut. (One option under consideration: Delaying repeal of Obamacares taxes to produce more money to shore up Medicaid coffers and reduce premiums in the short term.) But of course a delay merely puts the problem off rather than resolving it.

The irony here is that Republicans appear to be hampered by a legislative strategy that no longer applies. The original Republican plan called for repealing Obamacare, including the taxes that pay for it, early in 2017. Then Republicans would pass a revenue-neutral tax cut, which offset tax cuts for high-income earners by imposing a border-adjustment tax.

Why didnt Republicans want to just combine both tax cuts into one extremely large tax cut for the rich? Because their plan required that the cost of the tax cuts be offset. The first tax cut for the rich would be offset with cuts to insurance subsidies, and the second offset with tax increases on the middle class. Doing all the tax cuts in one tax bill would require finding even more painful tax increases to offset their cost.

But now, Republicans are starting to realize tax reform that is, tax cuts that are offset by revenue increases elsewhere is a pipe dream. The border-adjustment tax has implacable enemies within the GOP. Theyre not going to find enough new revenue to cover the costs of the taxes they want to cut. Their plausible Plan B is just to pass a big tax cut without paying for its cost. That means they can just repeal the Obamacare taxes in the tax cut bill. They dont need to do it in a separate health-care bill.

Given the parameters Senate Republicans are working within, it is literally impossible for them to write a non-horrific health-care law. Their commitment to eliminating Obamacares taxes in the health-care bill deprives them of the funding they need to provide even bare-bones minimal coverage. And their longstanding party-wide opposition to any new taxes means they cant replace the lost revenue with something else. If they realize they can leave the Obamacare taxes in place, and repeal them in a separate tax-cut bill, they can get a health-care law that isnt a humanitarian disaster and a tax-cut bill that gives rich people some really big tax cuts. They have to realize this eventually, dont they?

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U.S. officials released a video that shows the simulated ICBM being shot down.

The committee issued seven subpoenas Wednesday: four related to the Russia investigation, and three concerning the unmasking controversy.

The SpaceX and Tesla CEO has joined scores of other businesspeople speaking out in favor of the agreement.

She also slagged the DNC and addressed the possibility of running for office again.

Al Franken continues to trash talk his Senate colleague.

The firms knowingly misled doctors and patients about the risks inherent to opioid painkillers, the lawsuit alleges.

As the First Daughter keeps her head down, her dads decisions call into question how much pull she really has.

The president enlists his 11-year-old son Barron to express his outrage in the aftermath of the controversial Kathy Griffin photo shoot.

The right plans to seed damaging narratives about Warren early just as it did with Clinton. But that task will be much harder this time around.

Theresa May figured a snap election would strengthen her hand in Brexit talks. But the Tory lead is shrinking and Jeremy Corbyns doing well.

There is fresh evidence that African-American turnout sagged notably in 2016, and is not rebounding so far in 2017, either.

The former FBI director could appear before the Senate as soon as next week, CNN reports.

Liz Spayd, the papers sixth public editor, will also be its last.

The firm also attempted to hide its role in the film, which constituted the bulk of work it did on behalf of Turkeys government.

After months of deliberation, Trump has reportedly decided to undermine global cooperation on climate change and Americas diplomatic clout.

Who among us?

The student was supposed to be graduating from nursing school, but instead spent two hours stuck underground.

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Senate Republicans Could Save Trumpcare With This One Weird Trick - New York Magazine