Mediaboss Marketing

By Katie GlueckMcClatchy Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON (TNS) For all of Donald Trump's heated rhetoric about immigrants, he still beat Mitt Romney's 2012 showing with Latino voters last November, exit polls show.

But after the White House this week threw its support behind a proposal that would drastically reduce legal immigration, Latino Republicans are warning anew about the political perils of Trump's hardline position for him, and for the rest of the party.

"When you win the presidency, everybody thinks everything is all right, but I'm worried about Texas going the route of California," said Artemio Muniz, the Texas chairman of the Federation of Hispanic Republicans.

On Wednesday, the White House touted its support for a new immigration overhaul proposal that appears set to reduce legal immigration by half over the next 10 years through stringent restrictions on the kinds of immigrants who could enter the country. That proposal has a tough road ahead in Congress, but Republican operatives and leaders intimately familiar with the Hispanic community say that support for such an approach is another step backward when it comes to improving the GOP's generally dismal standing with Latinos at the national level.

"I don't want to say Hispanics vote exclusively on immigration, that's not true, but it does hurt him with the Hispanic community," said Alfonso Aguilar, president of the Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles, who yanked his support for Trump after a particularly hard-edged immigration speech last August but has since often emphasized areas of agreement with the administration. "It goes beyond the Hispanic community. It's what our country is all about."

Hard-line positions on immigration didn't ultimately stop Trump in November, but Latino Republicans say there's little reason for complacency: The 29 percent support he notched from the Latino community, while slightly better than Romney's results according to exit polls, still falls behind Sen. John McCain's 31 percent standing, and well behind President George W. Bush's 44 percent support from the community in 2004.

"While the math worked in 2016, it's not sustainable for Republicans to do that poorly with Latinos," said Jacob Monty, a Houston attorney who, like Aguilar, backed away from Trump late last summer, but is quick to note areas where Trump deserves credit as president now.

Juan Hernandez, who ran Hispanic outreach for McCain's presidential race and has long been involved in efforts to encourage more Hispanic Republicans to run for office, said that Trump's rhetoric makes it increasingly difficult to make the case for other Latinos to jump in as Republicans and the latest proposal further complicates that mission.

"We were doing very well getting Hispanics to run for office in the last decade, six years, but I know many would tell me, 'Look, how can I run with a big R on me, when the president is a Republican and is insulting my family, my friends from the south, and the values we've held related to NAFTA, related to hard work?'" Hernandez said, noting he has had that conversation with a number of potential candidates, though he declined to name names.

Meanwhile, several Latino Republican lawmakers who are in office were quick to push back on the plan.

"I oppose #RaiseAct bc it will destroy opportunities 4 immigrants who follow the rules + positively contribute 2 our American way of life," tweeted Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla.

Added another Miami-area congressman, Rep. Carlos Curbelo: "If the goal is more young immigrants who speak English & can contribute to American society, start by documenting the ones already here."

And a number of Latino Republican leaders said Trump could earn significant goodwill if he offered real support of the DREAM Act, which would offer a pathway to permanent legal status for those who were brought to the United States illegally as children, a group for whom Trump has expressed some sympathy, though his White House has indicated little appetite for the DREAM Act. Either way, the focus on curbing legal immigration instead is a "misplaced priority," Monty said.

"He could bring a lot more people on board, he could show a willingness to solve urgent problems, he could get a huge win under his belt and rebuild trust with the Latino community," Monty said. "If he lets that DREAM Act issue pass, I believe it will be a lost opportunity."

Muniz fretted that there is little sense of urgency to improve GOP standing with the Latino community right now because Trump won. But he noted that drilling down into the numbers reveals that he underperformed in heavily Latino counties in Texas and elsewhere. The latest proposal is not going to help the Republican brand, he said.

"A lack of understanding is putting us in danger in Texas, Colorado, Arizona in danger politically," he said. "That's the concern I have. You've got to have a majority coalition for the future. It's very difficult to convince people when Trump takes the presidency without the Hispanic vote. It's a tough position to be in."

Added Lionel Sosa, a veteran operative with a long history of helping presidential candidates with Hispanic outreach before Trump came along: "He keeps working the base, and that's good, that's where he has the support. The question is, will the base get smaller as he goes forward or will he be able to keep it all? He has to keep 100 percent of the base to be successful. He certainly doesn't have 100 percent support of the Republican Senate, that's an indication of the way people generally feel around the country."

Certainly, not every Latino leader was ready to blast the new immigration proposal.

"While I have many disagreements with the current proposal, I am hopeful it will spur Congress to act with urgency to pass comprehensive immigration reform," read a statement from the Rev. Samuel Rodriguez, the president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference, who offered a prayer at Trump's inauguration.

And Al Cardenas, a former American Conservative Union chairman who has worked extensively on immigration reform efforts, said that some of the proposals in the plan could be acceptable if they were part of a broader comprehensive immigration reform package.

"If you package it all, you negotiate a give-and-take, that's what problem-solving is all about, I could see it, but it ought to be part of a bigger conversation," said Cardenas, who doesn't shy away from criticizing Trump when he disagrees. "Standing alone, I wouldn't urge members to vote for it."

But beyond the policy details, Hernandez said he worries about the message that the latest immigration proposal sends about the Republican Party's attitude toward immigrants in general.

"My party is in grave danger," Hernandez said. "Our brand is one that, to be honest, is an embarrassment."

See the article here:
Some Latino Republicans see peril in immigration plan - The Garden City Telegram

Republicans are smiling in the afterglow of the 2016 election but Washington chaos and congressional turmoil are leaving people on both sides of the public- opinion spectrum with a sour take on politics.

Life in the US is better now than it was 50 years ago, say 44 percent of Republicans polled by the Pew Research Center. Thats a 26-point leap from the 18 percent of GOP voters who felt that way in 2016.

As Republican views improved, Democrats views turned more negative.

Just 35 percent of Democrats say the country is better than it once was. Thats a drop of seven points from 52 percent a year ago.

Overall, only 37 percent said that American life is better now than it was in 1967, and 41 percent say things are worse.

The partisan flip-flop means that the general national mood is almost identical to what it was in August 2016, when the Pew poll found that 36 percent of Americans felt that life is better than it was.

That lines up with other pollsters findings on whether Americans think that the country is on the right or the wrong track: public opinion is still about as negative about the state of the country as it was in Barack Obamas last year as president.

And happiness about the state of their personal lives is having no impact on partisans views of how their parties are faring in Washington where both Democrats and Republicans say they feel like political losers.

Even though the GOP holds both houses of Congress and the White House, just 42 percent of Republicans say their side is winning more than it is losing a reflection of the House and Senate logjams that have stalled the Trump agenda.

More GOP voters, 46 percent, say that their side is on the losing end in Washington more often than not.

And Democrats are even more unhappy a whopping 79 percent say their party is a political loser.

Just 26 percent of those polled said their side is winning on the issues they care about most compared to 62 percent who say their representatives are losing where it counts.

The telephone poll surveyed 5,009 adults in June and July.

Visit link:
Republicans, Democrats differ on perception of American life | New ... - New York Post

Five Republicans and two Democrats will contend in their respective special election primaries on Tuesday for the vacancy in state House District 76, which encompasses eastern Broken Arrow between Elm Place and Garnett Road and Albany and New Orleans streets.

The opening was created earlier this year by the death of Republican incumbent David Brumbaugh. The legislators wife, Shelley Brumbaugh, is among the Republicans vying in the partys primary.

Other Republicans in the primary are retired lawman Ross Ford, Union High School teacher and coach Brian Elliott, teacher and writer Cliff Johns and commercial cleaning business owner Jess Guthrie.

The Democratic primary features two educators, Chris VanLandingham and Forrest Mayer.

The district is 60 percent Republican by registration and only about 25 percent Democratic so the winner of Tuesdays GOP primary has a big advantage going into the November general election.

And, because it is a special election, there is no run-off.

Shelley Brumbaugh would seem to have a name-recognition advantage because her husband represented the district for almost six years. She said, though, that she has tried to make clear to voters that Im not just Davids widow. Im an accountant and a businesswoman.

Brumbaugh said she has long been interested and involved in state government and watched House sessions online even after her husbands death.

She said she and her husband may not have always agreed, but their thinking followed the same general lines.

David and I were like-minded, but we did have differences, she said. I would characterize myself as a conservative and a true Republican.

Brumbaugh said education is an important issue in the district, which includes parts of the Union and Broken Arrow school districts, and believes her ability to work with people would be an important asset to her as a legislator.

Elliott has the best-financed campaign. While his opponents raised less than $15,000 through July 24, he had taken in almost $78,000. Of that, more than half $40,900 came from people with ties to optometry.

Their largess was enough for Elliott to hire experienced campaign consultants Karl Ahlgren and Trebor Worthen and buy radio time.

Elliott said he has concentrated on knocking on doors and listening to people.

I say, Tell me whats important to you, Elliott said. This isnt about whats important to me.

Elliott said he has mostly heard concerns about the state budget, education and character issues related to recent scandals involving members of the Legislature.

Elliott teaches high school math and last year was National High School Coaches Association National Girls Soccer Coach of the Year.

Another familiar name is Ross Ford, a retired police officer who has also been a Union Schools board member and head of security for Union and Holland Hall.

Aside from his own career in law enforcement and community activities, Ford comes from a well-known area family. His father, Beryl Ford, was a well-known local businessman and historian, and his uncle Charles Ford served 38 years in the Oklahoma Legislature.

Ross Ford said he is particularly concerned about public education and all of the things going on in Oklahoma City.

To me, state government is basically education, public safety and mental health and health care, Ford said.

As a former law officer, Ford said he especially recognizes the need for more mental health resources in the Tulsa area.

Another candidate well-known to area Republicans is Cliff Johns, an attorney, teacher and writer who has been a candidate for elected office several times.

Johns is a graduate of Union High School, the University of Oklahoma and University of Tulsa law school who advocates what his website calls long-forgotten founding principles such as funding the federal government primarily through trade tariffs instead of taxes.

The fifth Republican, Jess Guthrie, owns a commercial cleaning company and says he brings a small-business perspective to the discussion.

Small businesses dont get any tax breaks, he said.

Look at this mess weve got, Guthrie said. I know it will be different when I get (to the Capitol), but why cant Republicans and Democrats come together to find solutions?

As a business owner, I have to look at both sides. Ill never say I have all the answers, but Ill look out for the best interests of my district.

The two Democrats in the race, VanLandingham and Mayer, say they know the winner of their primary will have an uphill climb in the general election.

But both said they felt compelled to inject their own perspectives into the political debate.

I just cant take it anymore, said VanLandingham, who teaches politics and government at Cascia Hall.

I cant ignore whats going on at the state level. And its not just teacher pay, he said.

If were going to be a better, more prosperous state, we have to make some decisions about priorities.

VanLandingham, who holds a Ph.D. in Judaism and Christianity from the University of Iowa and is a fourth-degree black belt in judo, said Oklahoma should be at least average in education and other categories in which it now ranks at or near the bottom.

I cant believe Im saying that, he said. At least average.

Mayer, a science educator, said he is upset by the proud ignorance of the states leadership, and cited U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofes attitude toward climate change as an example.

Science is my life, Mayer said. I care about evidence. I care about evidence more than emotion.

Mayer said he belongs to several science organizations and the American Civil Liberties Union, and that aptly summarizes his interests.

Those organizations tell a story about what I do, he said.

Read the rest here:
Primaries in House District 76 special election feature five Republicans, two Democrats - Tulsa World

When West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice stood next to President Trump during a campaign rally in Huntington, W.Va., on Thursday to announce that he was switching parties and becoming a Republican, it was a historic moment for the GOP.

Justice's decision gives Republicans control of 34 governorships tying a record set nearly a century ago. Democrats hold just 15 governorships. (Alaska's governor is an independent). Republicans now hold so-called trifectas control of a governor's mansion and both chambers of a state legislature in 26 states. Democrats have just six such trifectas. That's in addition to Republicans' complete control of the federal government.

And unlike their D.C. cousins, Republicans in statehouses across the country can point to conservative policy accomplishments this year, such as adding new restrictions on abortion, expanding gun rights, weakening private and public sector labor unions and expanding school voucher programs.

But a constellation of forces means that this level of Republican dominance in the states is brittle and in danger of shattering.

Large playing field, unpopular president

Perhaps the biggest reason Republicans are vulnerable is because of the extent of their past successes at the state level. Republicans are defending 27 of the 37 governors' seats that are up election between now and November 2018. And 14 of those 27 seats will be vacant including large, important states such as Florida, Michigan and Ohio mostly due to term limits.

While it's too early to tell how many races will be truly competitive, it's likely Republicans will face plenty of headwinds. State-level elections have become increasingly nationalized over the past two decades and the president's popularity can have a major impact on voter enthusiasm and turnout especially a challenge with a president as polarizing and unpopular as President Trump currently is.

Infighting and overreach

Years in power have also created problems for state-level Republicans. In Kansas, an overly ambitious plan to cut taxes orchestrated by Gov. Sam Brownback (who's been nominated to a State Department post in the Trump administration) starved the state of funds for its schools and other services. Kansas Republicans wound up bitterly divided over the issue and earlier this year, a moderate faction sided with Democrats to override Brownback's veto and rescind the tax cuts.

Similarly, a series of tax cuts in oil-dependent Oklahoma left the state poorly prepared for a downturn in energy prices. Republican lawmakers were forced to swallow their opposition and vote for tax hikes in order to keep the state solvent.

With Democrats all but vanquished in several Republican-dominated states, intra-Republican disputes have taken center stage. In Texas, Republicans are divided between a business-friendly faction that prioritizes low taxes and less regulation and social conservatives eager to pass the most conservative legislation possible, such as a bill limiting transgender access to bathrooms. Earlier this year, Florida Gov. Rick Scott was running campaign-style ads against fellow Republicans in the legislature over a dispute about economic development funds.

A combination of voters unhappy with the governing party's track record and internal party rifts that will play out in primary elections, sometimes leading to extreme or unqualified candidates, could weigh down Republican candidates up and down the ballot over the next year.

West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice announces that he is switching parties to become a Republican as President Trump listens on at a campaign rally Thursday in Huntington, W.Va. Justin Merriman/Getty Images hide caption

West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice announces that he is switching parties to become a Republican as President Trump listens on at a campaign rally Thursday in Huntington, W.Va.

The maps and the courts

After the Republican wave election in 2010, victorious GOP state lawmakers took advantage of that year's decennial redistricting to further entrench their power, especially in swing states such as Wisconsin and North Carolina.

Republican-drawn legislative and congressional district maps in North Carolina, Texas, Virginia, Georgia and Alabama are already in federal court because of concerns about racial gerrymandering and North Carolina has already been ordered to redraw some of its districts.

But an even greater existential threat to Republican dominance at the state level comes from one of the most important Supreme Court cases of this fall's docket. Arguments in Gill vs. Whitford could determine whether Republican lawmakers in Wisconsin were allowed to take partisanship into account when drawing legislative boundaries. The Republican maps in Wisconsin were so formidably drawn that the GOP won 60 of 99 seats in the Wisconsin House even as Democrats drew more votes statewide in 2012 and 2014.

While both parties use partisan gerrymandering to their advantage, Republicans' dominance at the state level means the GOP has far more on the line from a Supreme Court decision.

Can Democrats capitalize?

The flip side of Republicans' dominance is the weakness of state-level Democrats. Going into the 2010 midterm elections, Democrats had full control of 17 states compared to Republicans' 10 states. Democrats acknowledge they've let their state parties wither and need to focus on rebuilding.

As former President Barack Obama told NPR's Steve Inskeep after the 2016 election, "you've got a situation where there are not only entire states but also big chunks of states where, if we're not showing up, if we're not in there making an argument, then we're going to lose."

But Democrats have a long way to go. A much touted effort to recruit candidates for this year's Virginia's House of Delegates elections has substantially increased the number of districts Democrats are competing in from 39 in 2015 to 67 today but that still leaves 33 districts where the party was unable to find a candidate to run.

Still, while Democrats haven't won any of the special U.S. House elections so far this year, they've significantly improved their margins even in deeply Republican districts suggesting that Democratic voters are highly motivated.

More evidence of enthusiasm comes from the latest Quinnipiac poll that has 52 percent of voters saying they prefer that Democrats control Congress compared to 38 percent for Republicans. Given the GOP edge in congressional and state legislative districts, Democrats will probably need popular sentiment to sway far in their favor if they are to have a hope of regaining power.

It's still 15 months until Election Day 2018 and plenty can still happen. But based on the landscape, it's hard to see how Republicans can maintain their current level of dominance.

Continued here:
In The States, Republicans Have Never Been So Dominant Or Vulnerable - NPR

But in interviews with more than 75 Republicans at every level of the party, elected officials, donors and strategists expressed widespread uncertainty about whether Mr. Trump would be on the ballot in 2020 and little doubt that others in the party are engaged in barely veiled contingency planning.

They see weakness in this president, said Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona. Look, its not a nice business were in.

Mr. Trump changed the rules of intraparty politics last year when he took down some of the leading lights of the Republican Party to seize the nomination. Now a handful of hopefuls are quietly discarding traditions that would have dictated, for instance, the respectful abstention from speaking at Republican dinners in the states that kick off the presidential nomination process.

In most cases, the shadow candidates and their operatives have signaled that they are preparing only in case Mr. Trump is not available in 2020. Most significant, multiple advisers to Mr. Pence have already intimated to party donors that he would plan to run if Mr. Trump did not.

Mr. Kasich has been more defiant: The Ohio governor, who ran unsuccessfully in 2016, has declined to rule out a 2020 campaign in multiple television interviews, and has indicated to associates that he may run again, even if Mr. Trump seeks another term.

Mr. Kasich, who was a sharp critic of the Republicans failed attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act with deep Medicaid cuts, intends to step up his advocacy by convening a series of policy forums, in Ohio and around the country.

Hell continue to speak out and lead on health care and on national security issues, trade policy, economic expansion and poverty, John Weaver, a political adviser of Mr. Kasichs, said.

In the wider world of conservative Trump opponents, William Kristol, editor at large of The Weekly Standard, said he had begun informal conversations about creating a Committee Not to Renominate the President.

We need to take one shot at liberating the Republican Party from Trump, and conservatism from Trumpism, Mr. Kristol said.

It may get worse, said Jay Bergman, an Illinois petroleum executive and a leading Republican donor. Grievous setbacks in the midterm elections of 2018 could bolster challengers in the party.

If the Republicans have lost a lot of seats in the Congress and they blame Trump for it, then there are going to be people who emerge who are political opportunists, Mr. Bergman said.

Mr. Pence has been the pacesetter. Though it is customary for vice presidents to keep a full political calendar, he has gone a step further, creating an independent power base, cementing his status as Mr. Trumps heir apparent and promoting himself as the main conduit between the Republican donor class and the administration.

The vice president created his own political fund-raising committee, Great America Committee, shrugging off warnings from some high-profile Republicans that it would create speculation about his intentions. The group, set up with help from Jack Oliver, a former fund-raiser for George W. Bush, has overshadowed Mr. Trumps own primary outside political group, America First Action, even raising more in disclosed donations.

Here are a few of the political events that Vice President Mike Pence has attended:

Mr. Pence also installed Nick Ayers, a sharp-elbowed political operative, as his new chief of staff last month a striking departure from vice presidents long history of elevating a government veteran to be their top staff member. Mr. Ayers had worked on many campaigns but never in the federal government.

Some in the partys establishment wing are remarkably open about their wish that Mr. Pence would be the Republican standard-bearer in 2020, Representative Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania said.

For some, it is for ideological reasons, and for others it is for stylistic reasons, Mr. Dent said, complaining of the exhausting amount of instability, chaos and dysfunction surrounding Mr. Trump.

Mr. Pence has made no overt efforts to separate himself from the beleaguered president. He has kept up his relentless public praise and even in private is careful to bow to the president.

Mr. Pences aides, however, have been less restrained in private, according to two people briefed on the conversations. In a June meeting with Al Hubbard, an Indiana Republican who was a top economic official in Mr. Bushs White House, an aide to the vice president, Marty Obst, said that they wanted to be prepared to run in case there was an opening in 2020 and that Mr. Pence would need Mr. Hubbards help, according to a Republican briefed on the meeting. Reached on the phone, Mr. Hubbard declined to comment.

Mr. Ayers has signaled to multiple major Republican donors that Mr. Pence wants to be ready.

Mr. Obst denied that he and Mr. Ayers had made any private insinuations and called suggestions that the vice president wass positioning himself for 2020 beyond ridiculous.

For his part, Mr. Pence is methodically establishing his own identity and bestowing personal touches on people who could pay dividends in the future. He not only spoke in June at one of the most important yearly events for Iowa Republicans, Senator Joni Ernsts pig roast, but he held a separate, more intimate gathering for donors afterward.

When he arrived in Des Moines on Air Force Two, Mr. Pence was greeted by an Iowan who had complained about his experience with the Affordable Care Act and who happened to be a member of the state Republican central committee.

The vice president has also turned his residence at the Naval Observatory into a hub for relationship building. In June, he opened the mansion to social conservative activists like Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council and representatives of the billionaire kingmakers Charles G. and David H. Koch.

At large gatherings for contributors, Mr. Pence keeps a chair free at each table so he can work his way around the room. At smaller events for some of the partys biggest donors, he lays on the charm. Last month, Mr. Pence hosted the Kentucky coal barons Kelly and Joe Craft, along with the University of Kentucky mens basketball coach, John Calipari, for a dinner a few hours after Ms. Craft appeared before the Senate for her hearing as nominee to become ambassador to Canada.

Other Republicans eyeing the White House have taken note.

They see him moving around, having big donors at the house for dinner, said Charles R. Black Jr., a veteran of Republican presidential politics. And theyve got to try to keep up.

Mr. Cotton, for example, is planning a two-day, $5,000-per-person fund-raiser in New York next month, ostensibly for Senate Republicans (and his own eventual re-election campaign). The gathering will include a dinner and a series of events at the Harvard Club, featuring figures well known in hawkish foreign policy circles such as Stephen Hadley, Mr. Bushs national security adviser.

Mr. Cotton, 40, a first-term Arkansas senator, made headlines for going to Iowa last year during the campaign. He was back just after the election for a birthday party in Des Moines for former Gov. Terry E. Branstad and returned in May to give the keynote speech at a county Republican dinner in Council Bluffs.

Mr. Sasse, among the sharpest Senate Republican critics of Mr. Trump, has quietly introduced himself to political donors in language that several Republicans have found highly suggestive, describing himself as an independent-minded conservative who happens to caucus with Republicans in the Senate. Advisers to Mr. Sasse, of Nebraska, have discussed creating an advocacy group to help promote his agenda nationally.

He held a private meet-and-greet last month with local Republican leaders in Iowa, where he lamented the plodding pace of Capitol Hill and declined to recant his past criticism of Mr. Trump.

Jennifer Horn, a former chairwoman of the New Hampshire Republican Party who hosted Mr. Sasse in the first primary state last year, said she saw the senator as speaking for conservatives who felt that Republicans in Washington had not been delivering on their promises.

There are a lot of people in New Hampshire who have developed a lot of respect for him, and Im one of them, she said.

James Wegmann, a spokesman for Mr. Sasse, said the only future date that Mr. Sasse had in mind was Nov. 24, 2017, when the University of Iowa meets the University of Nebraska on the football field.

Huskers-Hawkeyes rematch, Mr. Wegmann said, and like every Nebraskan, hes betting on the side of righteousness.

Beyond Washington, other up-and-coming Republicans are making moves should there be an opening in 2020. Nikki Haley, the ambassador to the United Nations and a former governor of South Carolina, put her longtime pollster on the payroll, has gotten better acquainted with some of New Yorks financiers and carved out a far more muscular foreign policy niche than Mr. Trump.

She sounds more like me than Trump, said Senator Lindsey Graham, a hawkish Republican from South Carolina.

Read more here:
Republican Shadow Campaign for 2020 Takes Shape as Trump Doubts Grow - New York Times