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Four national polls from the past week have shown Democrats favored by more voters to control Congress compared to Republicans, as many analysts and GOP leaders continue to express confidence that the liberal party will lose control of at least the House and possibly the Senate in the November midterm election.

Recent historical precedent shows that the party of the president in the White House generally loses House and Senate seats in the midterm of the president's first term. Democrats control both legislative chambers with slim majorities, meaning even just a few losses could shift control of Congress to Republicans. Meanwhile, polls consistently show President Joe Biden's approval rating at historic lows, which many see as a bad sign for Democrats' chances of winning in November.

Despite the grim expectations for Democrats, four separate polls published since last Friday have shown them with more support than Republicans among voters.

The Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service Battleground Civility Poll conducted by Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group and published Thursday showed Democrats narrowly ahead of Republicans in a generic congressional ballot by 2 points. The liberal party was backed by 48 percent of voters compared to 46 percent who supported the conservative party.

The survey included 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points.

Another poll conducted by USA Today/Suffolk University from July 22 to 25 showed Democrats 4 points ahead. That survey had Democrats backed by 44 percent of registered voters compared to 40 percent who supported Republicans. Notably, the same poll carried out in mid-June showed Democrats and Republicans tied at 40 percentmeaning Democrats have gained 4 points.

The survey included 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.

Survey results from The Economist/YouGov from July 23 to 26 had Democrats 6 points ahead of Republicans. That poll showed the liberal party with 44 percent of support compared to 38 percent backing the conservative party. Again, that marked a shift in favor of Democrats. Earlier in July, the results were 43 percent for Democrats and 40 percent for Republicans, meaning Democrats gained 3 points.

The poll included 1,311 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points.

Polling by Politico/Morning Consult, which was carried out from July 22 to 24, showed Republicans trailing Democrats by 4 points. The liberal party was supported by 45 percent of registered voters and the conservative party had the backing of just 41 percent.

The survey included 2,006 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percent.

Notably, a poll conducted from July 20 to 22 by Trafalgar Group showed dramatically different results, with Republicans leading by 8 points. That survey had the GOP at 48 percent on the generic congressional ballot and Democrats at just 40 percent. It included 1,085 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent.

Generic congressional ballot polls are an imprecise way to gauge which party is more likely to win in November. Each House race is decided in an individual district with its own particular dynamics, while Senate races are decided state by state. The national sentiments captured in these polls do, however, suggest that a larger number of voters appear to favor Democrats over Republicans.

When it comes to the Senate, news and polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight's election model late on Tuesday showed that Democrats had a 52 percent chance of keeping the Senate majority, while the Republicans had a 48 percent chance of taking it. This marked the first time the model showed Democrats with an edge ahead of the November midterm.

As of Thursday afternoon, the FiveThirtyEight model predicted that Democrats may actually pick up three seats, bringing their total to 53 in the Senate. Republicans are predicted to likely lose three seats, dropping their total down to just 47.

Meanwhile, historical precedent is on Republicans' side.

In June 2021, the University of Virginia's Center for Politics released an analysis of midterm elections going back to 1946. That report showed that a president in power, on average, loses more than 26 House seats during the midterms. The largest loss has been 64 seats, while the largest gain has been just eight seats.

The analysis showed similar results in the Senate. On average, the president's party has lost more than three seats in the Senate during the midterms. The biggest loss has been 13 seats, while the largest gain has been just four seats.

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Democrats Beat Republicans for Control of Congress in 4 Polls in Past Week - Newsweek

This post originally appeared in KUOW's Today So Far newsletter for July 28, 2022.

There's some tension among Washington's Republicans heading into the August 2 primary.

You'll recall that two of our state's GOP representatives voted to impeach former President Trump. That action proved divisive and has spurred challengers from their right. Washington's 3rd Congressional District is represented by Congresswoman Jamie Herrera Beutler; one of the lawmakers who voted for impeachment. She is being challenged by Joe Kent, a GOP primary candidate endorsed by Trump. Kent echoes false claims that the 2020 election was stolen.

As do challengers to Republican Dan Newhouse, who represents Washington's 4th District. Newhouse is the second GOP Washingtonian who favored impeachment. Trump backs his challenger, failed gubernatorial candidate Loren Culp. But Newhouse does have GOP support, specifically from the Mainstream Republicans of Washington, a group that aims to offer a moderate GOP voice to counter more extreme rhetoric.

Mainstream Republicans of Washington just got a new leader Deanna Martinez of Moses Lake. Martinez tells KUOW that Republicans like her want their politicians "to speak the truth, even when it's a difficult truth." She is also bothered by some right-wing claims of a stolen election.

"The lack of integrity just ... it gets me. I can't vote for something like that," Martinez said.

As Northwest News Network's Austin Jenkins points out, questioning the validity of Washington voting system has been among local GOP rhetoric since before the 2020 election. This year, right-wing activists are planning to watch ballot drop off boxes to keep an eye out for fraud. Before the 2020 election, at least one local Republican was sowing doubt in Washington's vote-by-mail system. More on that here.

This all means there is plenty to watch for in our upcoming Aug. 2 primary election, which will offer hints at the mood of voters these days.

There's a new member of my home Cosmo a mutt going on about 6 months. He's rascally. But a few days back, he wasn't himself and not so rascally. In fact, he was shivering, not eating, and not moving around much at all. It was quite a scare and prompted a visit to the vet.

When going through all the environmental factors that could be at play, it came up that I had been taking Cosmo to a local lake with trails, where he sometimes takes a dip. Around this time of year, folks should start watching out for blue-green algae which can be toxic, especially to children and pets. The vet told me that if toxic algae was at play, there wasn't much they could do, "It just kills 'em."

Officials around Washington who watch our lakes and other bodies of water for toxic algae have a saying: "When in doubt, stay out." Not all algae is toxic, but it's best not to risk it. While it can show up year-round, it's common when water warms up. You can often observe a green or blue sheen on top of the water. But it's not always visible. KUOW's Natalie Newcomb has more on this, and what you should watch out for these days, here. And just in case I wasn't clear above keep your kids and dogs out of the water if you even remotely suspect algae.

As for Cosmo, he's fine. Part of me believes he did it all to get some attention while securing peanut butter treats via a couple weeks' worth of medication. And another part of me is starting to suspect he's actually a coyote masquerading as a domestic dog to live the good life.

If you're like me, your mind is doing a cost/health/benefit analysis for every fan or AC you turn on during this heat wave. I'm mentally preparing myself now for the inevitable electric bill shock that is coming.

The good news is that the region's electrical grid is holding up well to the heat, unlike during last year's heat dome, which kept knocking out power to my Northeast Seattle apartment. The grid is powering a lot of fans right now. Andrew Padula with Puget Sound Energy tells KUOW that fans cool a person, not a room. So if you want to lessen that utility bill, turn fans off when you leave a room. Also, as I mentioned yesterday, the temps are cooler in the mornings, around 60 degrees. That's an opportune time to rush cool air into the home before temps rise.

While many of us (myself included) have fans around us, there are plenty of people who are out in the heat, working. There are construction workers on the job, or crews dispatched anytime the power does go out. They turn the power back on and keep your fan going. KUOW's Kate Walter has more on this story here.

A ferry crashed into a structure at the Fauntleroy ferry dock in West Seattle Thursday morning, suspending service at the terminal. The MV Cathlamet crashed into a "dolphin" (a ferry structure, not an animal) immediately outside the dock. Service to Vashon Island and Southworth on the Kitsap Peninsula has been disrupted. (Courtesy of Timothy Couch)

The MV Cathlamet crashed into the Fauntleroy ferry dock in West Seattle this morning. The incident has disrupted service to Vashon Island and Southworth on the Kitsap Peninsula.

Like most of Washington's ferries, the MV Cathlamet draws its name from local Indigenous culture. According to Washington State Ferries, it has roots in "the Kathlamet tribe, the Chinook word calamet meaning 'stone,' was given to the tribe because its members lived along a rocky stretch of the Columbia River. A city also bears its name."

The city of Cathlamet is a small town on the shores of the Columbia River. Three movies have been filmed there. Long before the town existed in that spot, the tribe lived there. It's where they encountered Lewis and Clark who wrote about visiting with them.

Like many tribes in the 1850s, the Kathlamet ceded land to the U.S. government in exchange for money and other items. The tribe moved onto two islands in the middle of the Columbia River. Their language was similar to the Chinook people's, but was distinct. The last native speakers of their language reportedly died in the 1930s.

"In Mayim and Ken, we have two outstanding hosts at the beginning of their Jeopardy! hosting careers who connect with their own unique fanbases, new fans, and the traditional Jeopardy! viewer."

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The other Republicans in Washington state: Today So Far - KUOW News and Information

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbn, the far-right politician known around the world for his support of illiberal democracy and fervent anti-LGBTQ+ and anti-Muslim stances, recently took a big step towards open fascism by declaring his opposition to race-mixing in Europe. In a speech last weekend, Orbn stated that he does not want Europeans to become peoples of mixed-race and that countries accepting other races are no longer nations. Orbn also used his remarks to joke about the atrocities committed against the Jews during the Holocaust. Now the autocratic leader is coming to Dallas to speak at the upcoming Conservative Political Action Conference, and Texas Republicans are likely to embrace the bigoted authoritarian with open arms.

Orbns atrocious language was quickly denounced by the International Auschwitz Committee, and his longtime adviser Zsuzsa Hegeds, who had stayed with the PM through numerous controversies, immediately resigned following the PMs words, releasing a public statement excoriating her former bosss comments as a pure Nazi text that was worthy of Goebbels.

However, CPAC appears to have no problem with Orbns speech and is still inviting Orbn to its annual event, where major Texas Republicans including Governor Greg Abbott, Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, Senator Ted Cruz, and Attorney General Ken Paxton are slated to speak alongside him.

Orbn has been embraced by the Republican Party as a model for how to enact their agenda moving forward. Examples of this admiration for the Hungarian include Donald Trump endorsing his successful re-election campaign this year, Tucker Carlson spending a week in the Eastern European country to fawn over Orbns illiberal accomplishments, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis privately using the autocrats actions as direct inspiration for his own governance.

In response to the CPAC visit, the Texas Democratic Party released a statement condemning the Hungarian autocrat, asking the pertinent question: Are Greg Abbott, Dan Patrick, and other Texas Republicans really going to share a stage next week with this internationally-condemned racist?

The Republican Party and its leaders have until next weekend to find their consciences.

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Texas Republicans Embrace Viktor Orbn and Pure Nazi Text - The Texas Signal

The bills key provisions include $1.1 billion in funding to ensure that each trafficking survivor obtains equitable care, reauthorization of Homeland Securitys Angel Watch Center to prevent international sex tourism travel by offenders, enhancement of trafficking education and awareness through programs, and $35 million in funding to provide housing opportunities for survivors.

The legislation would reauthorize theTrafficking Victims Protection Act of 2000, also authored by Smith, which provides funding and education needed to combat human trafficking.

This critical legislation will go a long way toward protecting so many vulnerable people from exploitation while providing tremendous support and resources to victims. It also reaffirms Americas leadership and commitment to fighting for an end to modern-day slavery, said Smith.

When the legislation advances to the Senate, it is expected to have strong bipartisan support, according to the statement.

Smith toldCNAin a June interview that advocacy for these victims who are most often women and children is part of protecting societys weakest and most vulnerable. He referenced the Bible verse Matthew 25, which says Whatever you did for the least of my brethren, you did for me.

Maisy Sullivan is a summer intern for Catholic News Agency. She is a senior at The Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C., majoring in philosophy.

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House Republicans and Democrats come together to combat human trafficking - Catholic News Agency

Breaking news! (No, not really.)

It's just a little more than 100 days before the midterm elections, and the Republicans are outwardly giddy and chittering like rabid field mice.

Conventional wisdom a questionable term has the Republicans taking back the House in the midterm elections this fall. The idea has risen like cheap champagne in the putrescent bowels of the Republicans. Hell, they're so light-headed with their possible success they'll even tolerate Matt Gaetz publicly and historically embarrassing himself yet again.

That is, unless you're Marc Short, the former staffer to Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison who became Mike Pence's chief of staff. On CNN this week, Short flayed Gaetz into small morsels with an honest and sardonic description of the Florida congressman as Donald Trump's latest favorite fool. CNN aired a soundbite of Gaetz speaking to a youthful crowd, where he dismissed Pence as a nice guy who will never be president because he's no leader. Then Short got his shot live.

He quickly slowed the congressman's roll, reminding everyone that Gaetz has more serious problems to worry about. "I don't think Matt Gaetz will have an impact" on the 2024 election," Short said. "In fact, I'd be surprised if he was still voting. It's more likely he'll be in prison for child sex trafficking by 2024, and frankly I'm surprised law enforcement lets him speak to teenage conferences like that."

For those who are unsure: Yes, that was a mic drop.

Those who are even casually acquainted with Short know him to be something sorely lacking in the rest of the Republican Party. He's an adult. A professional. He makes sense, and he's immune to Trump as well as the groans and mutterings of Trump's latest flailing acolytes. In fact, he made it quite clear that, at least in Gaetz's case, he just doesn't give a shit what the future federal prisoner has to say.

If the GOP had more men like Short, there'd be far fewer like Trump. And such a revelation would frighten the Democrats that is, if the Democrats were seen by a larger number of Americans as being in serious contention to hang on to the House.

Those who think the Democrats will win are a little busy right now eating their own, once again. Let's move along.

* * *

I went to one great Christmas party on the South Lawn during the last days of the Clinton administration. That's the highlight of my time covering presidents, presidential campaigns, traveling with candidates and listening to endless recitations of mostly horrible stump speeches while eating fast food of questionable quality and origin. I swallowed my fair share of insects, I'm sure, on some of the campaign stops on pig farms in Iowa. Saw some strange things too. I remember Jesse Jackson sitting in a stall with an Iowa pig farmer. It was a cold winter's day, but the pungent smell of the farm was thick and on everybody's mind as dozens of us in the press watched Jesse sit and talk with the farmer. I believe both men were wearing overalls. But the farmer, who sat talking for several long minutes about political issues (remember those?) was wearing a Confederate flag baseball hat. Jackson, a veteran of the civil rights movement and good friend of Martin Luther King Jr., got along with him just fine. That sticks in my mind.

So does watching Gary Hart stumble badly at his first public appearance after he turned himself into a political pariah. He showed up at a pig farm, wrestled with a few swine, fell into the muck and grabbed a piglet, which gave off some piercing squeals. It was embarrassing, and he knew it. There were maybe half a dozen reporters and photographers in attendance. A month previously, Hart had been the 1988 Democratic frontrunner, followed around by dozens if not hundreds of reporters. Now he was an also-ran. Why? Here it is, boys and girls: Don't issue the "Gary Hart" challenge to the press corps no matter how incompetent you think we are especially if you're a liar.

Hart fell from grace after being photographed with a paramour. Today Trump would call him an amateur, but the deliciously salacious irony of finding the 1988 Democratic presidential frontrunner with a woman who wasn't his wife on his arm was too much to pass up. That happened because of what Hart told the press. Rumors had circulated for weeks that he had ongoing affairs outside of his marriage. His response to the press when asked about them? He challenged reporters to follow him. "They'll be very bored," he said publicly.

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A few days later, NBC anchor John Chancellor answered that on the air, "We did. We weren't."

Thus ended Gary Hart's political ambitions.

Democrats eating their own is an old and repetitious story. A frontrunner taking himself down with one sentence? Priceless.

The Democrats claim to have moved on, but former Sen. Al Franken was forced to resign over a sexual accusation that seems like a preschool watery nose compared to the warped shit people like Gaetz and his demented mentor, Donald Trump have been accused of.

Today, at every conceivable turn, from Steve Bannon being found guilty of ignoring a congressional subpoena to the revelations of the Jan. 6 committee hearings, the Republicans are taking it on the chin. The pain is real. So with all the bad press the Republicans have received, you'd think the Democrats could run a flatlining squid for office and still retain control of the House.

But as it turns out, only the Republicans have that bizarre ability. That is the only way to explain the likes of Lindsey Graham, Jim Jordan, Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert. Five squid spineless, thoughtless, ignorant and brain-dead. Some question whether they were ever sentient. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt: the critics, I mean. It's true: Republicans can run dead squid for office and still win.

Democrats are protesting against themselves and then yelling at themselves for protesting themselves. They can't stay focused, but are pissed at the media for not staying focused.

The Democrats, meanwhile, remain true to form. They are protesting against themselves, and then yelling at themselves for protesting themselves. They're unable to remain focused, yet remain pissed at the media for not staying focused. They have a point there. We have trouble these days recognizing facts in some quarters, let alone distributing them. Lately, a day in the White House press briefing room is as intellectually stimulating as a day in high school study hall.

Should the Republicans prevail in the fall, many voters (and not just Democrats) won't necessarily like the people they've just elected. That sentiment is common, and a lot of people rationalize it by hoping newly elected members of Congress will "grow into the role." But that's a fool's paradise. The stunted emotional growth of the Republican Party leaves anyone who's still in it not only incapable of growing into anything other than a pair of pants with a much wider waistband, but incapable of seeing how bloated, distended, cancerous and distasteful their party has become. Did Donald Trump "grow into his role"? There's your reality. He only grew more effective at abusing the system. Gaetz and the rest are merely appendages of the Trump hydra.

There is no GOP any more. Just Trump and those modeled after him, many of whom are ready to fight for control of the party once Trump leaves. To them the party is everything. Yet it stands for nothing.

You can thank Ronald Reagan for that a former B-movie actor cast in the role of a lifetime. Reagan was the first reality-show president. Donald Trump and the current GOP are merely his bastard offspring. I mean politically, of course. I have no proof of anything else.

Reagan embraced the free market and trickle-down economics. The result of 40 years of those policies? Well, it isn't a good look for the United States. It's becoming too Third World. But Reagan and those who followed him were never about helping people unless you mean rich, powerful people. In a move labeled by historian Joseph McCartin "The Strike That Busted Unions," Reagan destroyed the air traffic controllers' union in 1981, undermining the whole labor movement. Reagan's actions while in office enabled the re-emergence of robber barons, drooling with a lustful and narcissistic longing for every dollar they could make at the expense of everyone else.

It turns out Marc Short recently testified before a grand jury investigating the Jan. 6 insurrection. So maybe Merrick Garland is methodically and quietly gunning for Trump after all.

Most former Republicans view the Reagan years as the good old days. Before the dark times. Those left today in the Republican Party certainly don't care about Reagan, whom they view as too liberal. Most of the oafs left in the Republican Party think they're the real-life version of Billy Batts, the mobster played by Frank Vincent in "Goodfellas." They are faux bullies with no heart, only a head for the fight and no care for anything but the shallowest of victories. They love "owning the libs" and telling them, "Now go get your shine box." That's a great line, but the Republicans never see past that line and neither do most Americans. Billy Batts ended up in the trunk of Henry Hill's car after being beaten, shot and stabbed. It wasn't a good look. Neither is the Republican Party.

But never fear. The Donner Party had a better chance of survival than the current Republicans. Why? Because Marc Short did a lot more than just call out Matt Gaetz on CNN this week.

Short became one of the highest-ranking former members of the Trump administration to testify before a grand jury investigating the Jan. 6 insurrection. Other revelations this week suggest that Attorney General Merrick Garland is methodically and quietly gunning for Donald Trump.

The noose is tightening. This isn't going down easy.

As it turns out, Donald Trump may have accomplished something Gary Hart couldn't. Trump did to the Republican Party what Hart only did to himself.

This would be the part of the story, if you were writing a Hollywood ending, where truth, justice and Captain America (played by Merrick Garland) would prevail. But we are talking about Donald Trump and the Republicans. They're hoping this is a dark comedy or a horror story, and that Soldier Boy and Homelander will prevail.

We have a little more than 100 days left to find out. There's just that much time before the most important election of our lifetime.

Don't look at the miserable miscreants in the Republican Party. Ignore the Democrats eating their own, as usual. Give Garland a chance to do his job.

Right now the question is: What are you going to do about it?

Read more

from Brian Karem on the current state of politics

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With 100 days to go, Republicans are flatlining yet somehow still poised to win - Salon