Mediaboss Marketing

By Doyle McManus

Monday, March 22, 2021 | 2 a.m.

The $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill that Congress passed this month did a lot more than provide pandemic aid: It also included the biggest expansion of Obamacare in the programs history. And heres what was strange about that: Republicans raised hardly any objections.

From the Affordable Care Acts passage in 2010 through President DonaldTrumps failed reelection campaign last year, GOP politicians have vowed to repeal the federally run insurance plan. But the last time Republicans really tried to scrap Obamacare was in 2017, and that attempt failed. Since then, their attacks have been little more than lip service.

In his many recent speeches denouncing President Joe Bidens COVID relief bill, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell mentioned Obamacare only once, and then only to complain that the program was becoming too generous to upper-income families. House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy, once a leader of the anti-Obamacare jihad, didnt mention the program at all.

Theres a historical parallel for this almost-imperceptible process by which a once-controversial program becomes a widely popular, deeply rooted part of what citizens expect the federal government to do: Medicare.

Ronald Reagan, then a budding politician, campaigned furiously against the proposed health insurance program for senior citizens in 1961, warning that it would be a fatal step toward socialism. President Lyndon B. Johnson, a Democrat, ignored Reagans complaints and pushed Medicare through Congress in 1965. Within three years, the program was so popular that the next Republican president, Richard Nixon, never even tried to dismantle it.

PresidentBarack Obamas Affordable Care Act, which launched with a bungled website rollout that made it the butt of jokes, has followed much the same trajectory, only more slowly. After the plan was enacted in 2010, only about 40% of Americans approved of it. But as more people used the plan, and after it became clear in 2017 that Republicans didnt have a viable alternative, its popularity crept upward, reaching 54% approval this year.

Of course, in these polarized times, most of those who now like Obamacare are Democrats, and the holdouts are overwhelmingly Republican including the partisan voters who dominate GOP primaries.

But in a general election, when the electorate includes Democrats and independents, hostility to Obamacare has turned into a millstone for Republicans. Just look at what happened in 2018, when Democrats accused Republicans of plotting to strip protection from people with preexisting conditions: The GOP lost 41 seats and its majority in the House of Representatives.

Republicans are at an impasse, Robert Blendon, a health policy scholar at Harvard, told me. They cant announce to millions of people that they plan to take their insurance away. They can change the program make its benefits more limited, try to control its costs. But theyre not going to repeal it.

The legislation Biden signed should bolster Obamacares popularity further because it fixed what had been one of the programs most complained-about features. The plan provides subsidies for users monthly insurance premiums, depending on their income. But the original, too-low ceiling for the subsidies meant upper-middle-income people a family of three with an income of $87,000, for example faced punishingly high bills.

Biden eliminated the income cap and imposed a ceiling of 8.5% on the share of income that a family would be asked to spend on premiums. That new provision is temporary, which makes it likely Congress will debate it again just before the 2022 midterm election. But will Republicans really want to propose clawing subsides back from middle-income families right before an election?

Now Biden wants to expand the program further not only by making the increased subsidies permanent, but also by adding a government-administered insurance policy (known as a public option) and perhaps by allowing people under 65 to buy into Medicare. Polls suggest that both of those proposals are broadly popular but the public option is likely to draw strong opposition from hospitals and doctors, because they fear it will create downward pressure on their prices.

All those ideas for expanding Obamacare will produce lively debates but the argument will be about how much to spend on the program, not whether to scrap it altogether. And one word has already quietly disappeared from Republican leaders vocabulary: repeal. Obamacare is here to stay and thats a very big deal.

Doyle McManus is a columnist for the Los Angeles Times.

Continued here:
They may not admit it, but Republicans know Obamacare is here to stay - Las Vegas Sun

Millions of elderly Americans are still hunting for appointments to get vaccinated against COVID-19. Millions of younger Americans are waiting impatiently for their turn in line.

But theres one group whose members are far more skeptical about the vaccine and in some cases are actively refusing to get jabbed at all.

That group is Republicans, especially GOP men.

In a recent NPR/PBS/Marist survey, fully 49% of Republican men said they do not plan to get vaccinated a higher share of refusers than any other demographic group. Among Democratic men, the number saying no was only 6%.

The finding, which has been confirmed in other polls, has confounded public health professionals.

Weve never seen an epidemic that was polarized politically before, Robert J. Blendon, a health policy scholar at Harvard, told me.

For months, Blendon and his colleagues expected vaccine hesitancy to be a problem mainly among African Americans, whose history has been marked by neglect and abuse by medical authorities. But Black Americans, after some initial hesitance, now say they want the vaccine at the same rate that white people do.

Republicans, on the other hand, have become more resistant especially since a Democrat became president.

They dont trust the federal government and they trust it even less since Joe Biden came to the White House. They dont trust scientists, and they especially dont trust Dr. Anthony Fauci, Bidens chief medical advisor.

Many tell pollsters theyre worried that the vaccine might not be safe. Such fears have been fed by Fox News, whose star polemicist Tucker Carlson has frequently accused authorities of lying about the vaccines safety and effectiveness.

Blendon said he expects many of those Republican skeptics to come around once they see friends and relatives get immunized without ill effects.

We have to find a way to depoliticize this issue, he said. Instead of hearing Joe Biden or Tony Fauci tell them to take the vaccine, they need to hear it from physicians in their own states people who have never worked in Washington.

But some GOP politicians have decided to make resistance part of their political brand. As many as half of the 211 Republicans in the House of Representatives have refused to get vaccinated. So have at least four GOP senators.

A few, like Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, have asserted that they dont need an injection because they contracted COVID-19 the natural way. (Scientists disagree, recommending that COVID survivors like Paul get booster shots.)

In perhaps the least devastating insult of the year so far, Paul dismissed Fauci last week as a government worrywart.

Others, like freshman Rep. Madison Cawthorn of North Carolina, have defended the right not to be immunized as an exercise in individual freedom.

The survival rate [from COVID-19] is too high for me to want it, Cawthorn, who is 25, explained.

But theres a flaw in that argument: The hazards of refusing the vaccine dont confine themselves to the individual refuser. Vaccine resisters are putting the rest of us in danger, too.

Unvaccinated people who contract COVID-19, even if they dont become seriously ill, can pass the virus to family and friends.

And resisters are making it harder to achieve herd immunity, the point at which the virus can no longer find new hosts to infect. Thats when the pandemic will come to an end.

Herd immunity against the coronavirus will require between 70% and 85% of the population to be vaccinated, Fauci estimates. Its a new disease, so nobody knows the precise level, and new variants of the virus could push the number higher.

If a significant number of people do not get vaccinated, that would delay where we would get to that endpoint, Fauci warned recently.

And the longer it takes, the more people will get sick.

Paul, Cawthorn and their colleagues are casting themselves as courageous individualists. In fact, theyre acting as epidemiological moochers. Theyre free riders, relying on the rest of us to protect them by helping the country reach herd immunity.

Their relatives and friends, especially those 65 or older, should give them a wide berth. And their voters should treat them as what they are: dangerous to the health of their communities.

Go here to read the rest:
Half of Republican men say they don't want the vaccine - Los Angeles Times

U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin speaks during a Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs and Senate Committee on Rules and Administration joint hearing Wednesday, March 3.(Photo: Greg Nash, Associated Press)

More than 100 conservative voters and activists packedtheballroom atthe Hampton Inn and Suites in West Allis on Saturday morning to hear from Republican politicians and conservative leaders as the party looks ahead to coming elections.

At one point, Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson was asked by a West Allis resident how to get conservatives to vote and run for office.

Talk about what the Democrats are doing to this country, Johnson said. Are we (Republicans) perfect? No. Not even close.

Johnson paused, then joked that he probably should not have said Republicans arentprefect.

We may not be perfect,but they are awful, I mean awful, Johnsonsaid to applause. Ill use good words:We may be bad, but they are so much worse. I know thats not the greatest selling point but when youtake a lookat what is at stake, I mean,freedom.

Johnson then went on to saythere is a radical bunch that has taken controlof the Democratic Party and, right now, the levels of government.

The exchange was part of a Conservative Political EducationConference on Saturday, an event designed to whip up support as the party looks ahead to the 2022 midterms.

Johnsons seat is up for election in 2022, along with Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, which is likely going to put a spotlight on Wisconsin.Democrats have already circled Johnson's seat as a major race to win.

Johnson was asked the question he must hear daily: Is he running for reelection?

I have not made my decision, that is true.I know what my wife wants me to do, Johnsonsaid, and the crowd laughed. I am not making a decision for quite some time and I dont have to.

U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil toldthe crowd he thinks Johnson is going to run for reelection.

I think hes doing a great job on our behalf in Washington, D.C.," Steil said. "But if its him or whomever, we need to hold that seat. We need to replace Gov. Evers with a conservative governor whosefightingon our behalfto help get our way of life back.

Talk radio hostBrian Schimming, former vice-chair of the Republican Party of Wisconsin,said the race for Johnsons seat was critical to the party and the country.

Its not hyperbole to say that Ron Johnsons seat may decide control of the U.S. Senate, Schimming said, adding he is not anxious for Johnson to decide to run or not. Theres enormous grassroots support for Ron to run again, enormous ... I would say thatwhat hes told me and others that its 50/50.

Schimming was impressed with the crowd that showed up onSaturday.

Schimming acknowledged there may be some frustrationwithin Republican ranks after the results of the 2020 election.

Theres been some ofthatbut Ill tell you, though, theres been a ton of energy, Schimming said.

Our subscribers make this reporting possible. Please consider supporting local journalism by subscribing to the Journal Sentinel at jsonline.com/deal.

Read or Share this story: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/local/milwaukee/2021/03/20/republicans-try-whip-up-energy-anticipation-midterm-elections/4763870001/

More here:
Republican activists gather with an eye toward midterm elections, with Ron Johnson's seat top of mind - Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

She gave the state of Wyoming the middle finger. Hes a traitor. We want a real Republican in there.

These are just some of the criticisms that Republicans have lobbed at the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump after his supporters stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6. The criticisms havent stopped there, either. Trump told attendees at the Conservative Political Action Conference last month to get rid of them all. And all but one of these 10 representatives have been publicly rebuked by state or local GOP officials. In total, nine already face a primary challenger in 2022.

But is this opposition real or just noise? After all, were still a long way from the 2022 primaries, which leaves plenty of time for anger surrounding their votes to impeach Trump to fade.

At first glance, the seriousness of the primary challengers does vary quite a bit, ranging from the very serious that is, other elected officials, who tend to be stronger candidates to political newcomers like a conservative activist best known for getting married in a MAGA dress. Yet, in most cases, these representatives should all have at least some reason to be concerned about winning renomination in 2022 especially those who hail from more Republican-leaning districts.

The 10 House Republicans who backed impeachment, including whether they were publicly admonished by state or local Republican Party committees and whether they have a primary challenger

*Valadao lost reelection in Californias 21st Congressional District in 2018 but won the seat back in 2020.

Admonishment includes a censure or public rebuke by a Republican Party committee at the state, district or county level.

Source: Daily Kos Elections, Federal Election Commission, News Reports, U.S. House of Representatives

The Republican in most danger of losing renomination, South Carolina Rep. Tom Rice, ironically has the most conservative voting record among these 10 members, too. But thanks to South Carolina election rules, he faces a tougher road to renomination than the other nine. Thats because he must capture a majority of the votes in a primary or runoff to win whereas the others only need a plurality. Theres reason to think, too, that Republicans in South Carolinas 7th Congressional District could be especially receptive to a Trump-motivated primary challenge, as it was Trumps strongest district in the states 2016 presidential primary.

In fact, Rice has already been censured by the South Carolina GOP and attracted two challengers, both of whom hold elected office: Horry County school board Chairman Ken Richardson and state Rep. William Bailey. (Bailey hasnt officially announced, but he has taken a big first step in forming an exploratory committee.) Others could run, too. And if Rice does lose, he wouldnt be the first Palmetto State House Republican in recent years to lose a primary after running afoul of conservatives: In 2018, Rep. Mark Sanford lost his primary after being critical of Trump, and in 2010, Rep. Bob Inglis got crushed in a runoff after earning the Tea Partys ire for being too moderate.

After Rice, the next most endangered Republican may be the most well-known name here: Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming. As a part of the House GOPs leadership, Cheney will have a huge campaign war chest to help with her reelection bid, but Republican fury over her vote to impeach Trump runs deep: The Wyoming state GOP has censured her, as have more than half of the partys county committees in the state, while her colleagues in D.C. even held a vote on whether to remove her from leadership.

Anger at Cheney could keep burning, too, given her national profile and because Wyoming Republicans, long the dominant force in state politics, have grown a lot more conservative. For instance, in 2020 an influx of right-wing primary challengers defeated more moderate lawmakers in six state Senate and House districts and mounted major challenges in about a dozen other seats. Those campaigns were largely backed by conservative groups and Republican leaders who wanted to oust Republicans in name only, and the same sentiments could boost Cheney primary challengers like state Sen. Anthony Bouchard and state Rep. Chuck Gray, a pair of right-wing state legislators who have already said theyll take on Cheney.

Next up are Midwestern Reps. Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio and Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, who each have a noteworthy challenger with Trump ties: former Trump aide Max Miller will take on Gonzalez, while former Trump Commerce Department adviser Catalina Lauf is running against Kinzinger. Its not just their votes on impeachment that make Gonzalez and Kinzinger vulnerable. According to Voteview.com, their voting records are among the least conservative of all House Republicans despite representing seats Trump carried by 14 to 16 percentage points. Kinzinger in particular has earned a reputation as a Trump critic and was one of eight Republicans to recently support expanding background checks for gun sales.

The six remaining Republicans arent as vulnerable, but at least a couple of them could still run into primary danger.

For instance, for the three members from California and Washington, the top-two primary format should help them weather their primary challenges, as no House incumbent has failed to advance to the general election in those states under this system. But the Washington pair Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler and Rep. Dan Newhouse have more to worry about, having received criticism from the state party, censure from local groups and calls for their resignation. Herrera Beutler might benefit from a crowded primary field, though. Three GOP opponents have already said theyll run against her, but theyre all relatively unknown and could split up the anti-incumbent GOP vote. Newhouse, meanwhile, has to deal with GOP state Rep. Brad Klippert, and other Republicans are eyeing the race, too. Still, Newhouses district is Republican enough that it sometimes sends two GOP candidates to the general election, and in that case, Newhouse might win over some Democratic voters because of his impeachment vote. As for the other representative facing a top-two primary, Rep. David Valadao of California seems in considerably less hot water; hes only earned a letter of condemnation and a GOP challenger who last ran for Congress in New Mexico, finishing third in a three-person Republican primary field.

Likewise, western Michigan Reps. Pete Meijer and Fred Upton also have fewer primary concerns. Some local party officials have censured Meijer, but his district committee deadlocked on a censure motion and GOP officials from the largest county in the district didnt rebuke him either. His primary opponents also arent all that serious (yet), as one finished well behind him in 2020 and the other is that activist I mentioned earlier who is most famous for her MAGA wedding dress. Meanwhile, Upton has been censured by local party committees but so far he has attracted only one primary opponent, who received a microscopic share of the vote (0.15 percent) as a write-in candidate in the 2020 general election.

Lastly, New York Rep. John Katko might not have that much to worry about in the primary, but that doesnt mean itll be smooth sailing in the general election. Katko is the one member without a primary challenger so far and hes also avoided an official rebuke from state and local county Republicans, but that doesnt mean he hasnt angered some of his base. Katko won just over 21,000 votes from Conservative Party voters in 2020 about two-thirds of his 35,000-vote margin of victory but his impeachment vote has already prompted a no confidence vote by one Conservative Party county committee in the district and could lose him the partys endorsement in 2022, which could hurt Katkos reelection chances, especially if he faces a strong Democratic challenger.

Its early yet, so its possible these 10 Republicans curry favor with the party faithful in the coming months, but no matter what they do, their House impeachment vote could still cut their political careers short in the 2022 GOP primaries.

Read the rest here:
9 Of The 10 House Republicans Who Voted For Impeachment Already Have Primary Challengers - FiveThirtyEight

Democrats and Black advocacy groups are, of course, up in arms and trying to stop the GOP.

We can't know how these changes, if they come to pass, would affect future elections. But by looking at two of the most prominent moves Republicans are trying to make, we can see it's not at all clear that Republicans will succeed in helping their electoral prospects.

Let's take a look at two ways of voting Republicans are trying to limit: vote by mail and early Sunday voting.

Starting with vote by mail, Democrats are upset for a simple reason: they overwhelmingly won no-excuse absentee voting nationally and in Georgia.

The higher use of absentee voting was more a product of the coronavirus pandemic than it was anything else. Democrats are far more likely to fear the virus, while Trump railed against mail voting.

Further, the higher turnout this election likely wasn't because of mail voting. While we'll need more data to confirm this, the network exit polls showed that voters who were of voting age in 2016 and did not vote that year were actually less likely to vote by mail in 2020 (22%) than those who had voted by any method in the previous election (36%). They were far more likely to vote on Election Day in 2020 (49%) than those who had voted in 2016 (32%).

If no-excuse absentee voting were responsible for higher turnout, we would have seen a very large turnout boost between 64- and 65-year-olds in Texas. It didn't happen, according to a study from Stanford University. This finding holds when you control for partisanship.

Voting by mail isn't the only thing Republicans are trying to stop. Not too surprising, they're going after Sunday early voting in the Peach State.

Trump won early voting overall in the state, but Sunday early voting is quite popular with Black voters. They were nearly 10 points more likely to vote early in-person than other days of the week, while Whites were 13 points less likely.

The eventual electorate effect of this move, if implemented, is not certain, however.

Sunday early voters made up only about 72,000 of 5 million votes cast in the election.

We don't know exactly how these groups cast a ballot, but we can estimate. We'll assume those White voters and voters of color who voted early on Sunday voted the same way as those who voted early overall in those demographic groups. With that estimate, Biden's margin would have shrunk by between about 6,000 and 7,000 votes.

This would not have been enough to erase Biden's statewide win of a little less than 12,000.

This doesn't mean that what Republicans are doing in Georgia is right, and it doesn't mean that this time they won't help their chances.

See the original post here:
Why the effects of Republican efforts to limit voting aren't clear - CNN