After Democrats held on to all three Las Vegas-based House    seats for two consecutive election cycles, national Republicans    again took aim at flipping the seats in 2022, with one key GOP    PAC     pouring more money into the districts of Rep. Susie Lee    (D-NV) and Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) than any other in the    country.  
    But while Republicans ultimately did win the House, with a net    gain of nine seats, the path to the gavel did not run through    Las Vegas. Lee won re-election by 4 percentage points; Rep.    Steven Horsford (D-NV) by nearly 5, and Titus by more than 5,    despite even our boss / Nevadas Nostradamus Jon Ralston    predicting Lee would lose her seat.  
    After so many unsuccessful pulls at the electoral slot machine,    have national House Republicans moved on from Las Vegas?  
    Not quite.  
    The three Las Vegas seats are still on the     list of 37 pickup opportunities identified by the National    Republican Congressional Committee, and two Republican    operatives who work on Nevada races, granted anonymity to speak    freely, are optimistic about the prospect of several     self-funded candidates who could emerge as challengers.  
    But with both parties increasingly homing in on seats in New    York and California, Republicans with knowledge of the races    also said they expect less national GOP investment in the    Nevada House races compared with last cycle.  
    Congressional Leadership Fund, the Kevin McCarthy-backed (R-CA)    super PAC that     pumped more than $6 million into Lees race last cycle, has    yet to announce its initial spending, despite having     done so by this point last year.  
    That may not necessarily translate to lower spending totals     given the costly and crowded Las Vegas media market and the    fact that fundraising only increases every cycle.  
    But between competing for ad space and air time with the    presidential race and the U.S. Senate race  not to mention the    frustrating results from last cycle in a midterm historically    linked to big losses by the incumbent presidents party  Lee,    Titus and Horsford are likely not going to be as significant of    a target for Republican leadership as last cycle.  
    Whats different  
    The 2022 cycle was the first assessment for both parties of    Nevada Democrats redistricting plan adopted in 2021, operating    under the strategy that three districts with narrow-ish    Democratic majorities was a more favorable map than maintaining    the traditionally deep blue Congressional District 1 and two    extremely competitive districts. By shifting some suburban    areas with more independent and Republican voters into Titus    safely Democratic district, Democrats gambled that they could    shore up Lees and Horsfords margins while still protecting    Titus.  
    The maps paid off  and now Republicans must consider if they    want to keep putting money into testing them.  
    While intense spending and campaigning is already underway in    swing districts around the country, the Nevada House primary    races have been kind of sleepy right now, in the words of one    Republican strategist. Only one candidate, Congressional    District 4s David Flippo, has reserved television ad time with    less than a month to go before mail ballots are sent out around    the state.  
    Still, that doesnt mean theyre giving up on the seats. In    Lees race in particular, Republicans are excited about GOP    candidate Marty ODonnell, a video game music composer who is        working with the consultants who engineered Gov. Joe    Lombardos (R) successful gubernatorial bid.  
    ODonnell is in a crowded primary with former Treasurer Dan    Schwartz, a fellow self-funder, tax analyst Drew Johnson and    former state Sen. Elizabeth Helgelien. All but Helgelien have        loaned their campaigns hundreds of thousands of dollars,    with Schwartz leading the pack at $800,000 (though Lees cash    on hand remains significantly greater than any potential    opponent).  
    In Congressional District 1, repeat 2022 candidate Mark    Robertson and self-funded restaurateur Flemming Larsen are    squaring off to take on Titus, while in Congressional District    4, Horsford will likely face either Air Force veteran Flippo or    former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee, who has the distinction    of having won elected office before and boasts an endorsement    from Lombardo.  
    In Congressional District 1, Larsen actually has a larger war    chest than Titus, though most of his $1.5 million is loaned.    Powered by a $500,000 loan from himself, John Lee technically    outraised Horsford in the first quarter of 2024, but Horsford    retains a significant cash on hand advantage and the benefit of    having contributions rather than loan money that can be pulled    back at the discretion of the candidate.  
    Given that the presidential election will lead to higher    turnout, Republicans are hopeful that voters who sat the 2022    midterms out might finally turn out and help oust Lee, who has    won three straight terms in a seat that has been competitive    since its creation in 2002, although its boundaries have    changed slightly over the years.  
    Biden is more unpopular now than he was in 2022, a Republican    strategist familiar with the race said, adding that the    conventional wisdom of high turnout boosting Democrats might no    longer be true. We haven't completely grappled with the idea    that higher turnout helps Republicans.  
    On the Democratic side, meanwhile, operatives believe a    superior ground game and well-established incumbent candidates    will keep the three districts in their win column.  
    Political analysts who run major ratings so far seem to agree.    The Cook Political Report rates Lees race as Lean Democrat,    when she used to occupy the Toss Up category; Horsford and    Titus are considered Likely Democrat.  
    House Majority PAC, the high-spending outside group connected    to Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), made the first move    of the cycle by     reserving over $6.8 million in ad spending for the fall in    Las Vegas, including earmarking more than $750,000 for    Spanish-language content.  
    The ad buy signifies both the costly nature of the Las Vegas    market, the fact that there are three seats in the area and its    continued importance to Democratic ambitions  the group is    only spending more in Los Angeles, New York City, Portland and    Detroit.  
    Democratic strategists are confident theyll retain the Las    Vegas seats  and believe the incumbents are particularly    effective and well-disciplined in their messaging, compared    with members in other states.  
    One Democratic strategist said that none of the potential    Republican candidates concern them, and that once outside    Republican spending does come in, they expect the GOPs focus    to be in other states.  
    They're probably not going to spend as much [in Nevada] as    they are doing elsewhere, the strategist said. That's going    to be really indicative of them kind of conceding that they're    not going to win these seats.  
    Editors note: This story appears in Indy Elections, The    Nevada Independents newsletter dedicated to comprehensive    coverage of the 2024 elections. Sign up for the newsletter    here.  
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After losing three straight times, are Republicans as invested in Vegas House seats? - The Nevada Independent