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Welcome to The Heart of the Primaries, Republican Edition

June 23, 2022

In this issue: This weeks marquee primary results and responses to Eric Greitens new ad

Here are recent results from marquee elections weve been following.

Alabama U.S. Senate primary runoff: Katie Britt defeated Mo Brooks 63% to 37% on Tuesday. The pair advanced from a field of six candidates in the May 24 primary. Incumbent Richard Shelby (R), first elected in 1986, did not run for re-election. This is a solidly Republican seat.

Alabamas 5th District primary runoff: Dale Strong defeated Casey Wardynski 63% to 37% on Tuesday. Mo Brooks has represented this district for more than a decade. Strong has served on the Madison County Commission since 2012.

Alaskas special U.S. House primary: Sarah Palin (R), Nick Begich III (R), Al Gross (I), and Mary Peltola (D) were the top four finishers in Alaskas special U.S. House primarythe first top-four congressional primary in U.S. history.

Gross withdrew on Monday. The Division of Elections said Tuesday that fifth-place finisher Tara Sweeney (R) would not advance to the Aug. 16 special general election because Gross withdrew fewer than 64 days before the general. Lawsuits are possible. The final ballot count was Tuesday, and the Division plans to certify results Saturday.

Forty-eight candidates ran in the special primary. Unofficial results from the final ballot count for the top five candidates are below.

Virginias 7th District: Yesli Vega defeated five other candidates, receiving 29% of the vote on Tuesday. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) is running in the redrawn 7th District. Vega serves on the Prince William County Board of Supervisors and had endorsements from Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and former Rep. Dave Brat (R-Va.), whom Spanberger defeated in the old 7th District in 2018. Three independent forecasters rate the general election as Toss-up, Lean Democratic, or Tilt Democratic.

Weve been tracking former President Donald Trumps endorsements in primaries. After Tuesdays elections, Trumps endorsement record is 123-10 (92%). Two endorseesVernon Jones and Jake Evanslost U.S. House primary runoffs in Georgia on Tuesday.

The figures below were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

At least four state legislatorsall Republicanslost in primary runoffs on June 21. Including those results, 111 state legislative incumbents have lost in primaries this year. This number will likely increase: 37 primaries featuring incumbents remain uncalled.

Across the 21 states that have held state legislative primaries so far this year, 5.4% of incumbents running for re-election have lost, continuing an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Of the 21 states that have held primaries so far, five had Democratic trifectas, 13 had Republican trifectas, and three had divided governments, with Democrats controlling the governorship and Republicans controlling both legislative chambers. Across these 21 states, there are 2,650 seats up for election, 43% of the nationwide total.

Missouri U.S. Senate candidate Eric Greitens released a campaign ad Monday in which he carries a gun and tells viewers to get a RINO hunting permit. Greitens primary opponents and the state Fraternal Order of Police criticized the ad.

Greitens identifies himself in the ad as a Navy SEAL and says, Today, were going RINO hunting. Greitens and a group of armed men in military gear then break into a house and throw a flash grenade inside. Greitens says, Join the MAGA crew, get a RINO hunting permit. Theres no bagging limit, no tagging limit, and it doesnt expire until we save our country.

Facebook removed the video from its platform for violating its policies prohibiting violence and incitement. Twitter added a warning to the video, saying, This Tweet violated the Twitter Rules about abusive behavior. However, Twitter has determined that it may be in the publics interest for the Tweet to remain accessible.

Other Senate GOP primary candidates in Missouri criticized the video.

U.S. Rep. Billy Long said the video was distasteful, adding, [Missouri Attorney General Eric] Schmitt nor [U.S. Rep Vicky] Hartzler can beat him, but he may be able to beat himself. The way to beat RINOs like Schmitt and Hartzler is at the ballot box.

State Sen. Dave Schatz tweeted, Completely irresponsible. Thats why Im running. Its time to restore sanity and reject this nonsense. Missouri deserves better.

Hartzler said, Eric Greitens is an abuser, a blackmailer, and less than ten years ago a Democrat. To be clear: The only RINO featured in Eric Greitens web video is himself.

Greitens was governor of Missouri from 2017 to 2018, when he resigned following allegations of sexual misconduct and misuse of campaign information. This year, Greitens ex-wife alleged that he abused her and one of their children. Greitens denied the allegations.

The Missouri Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) said, The creation and release of this video again demonstrates that Mr. Greitens does not possess the sound judgement necessary to represent the people of Missouri in the United States Senate. The Missouri FOP has endorsed Schmitt in the primary.

Greitens said, We just wanted to demonstrate with a sense of humor and with a sense of fun that we are going to take on RINOS. Greitens said it was entertaining to watch the faux outrage of all of the liberals and RINO snowflakes around the country and around the state.

Twenty-one candidates are running in the Senate GOP primary on Aug. 2. In an Emerson College poll from early June, Greitens received 26% support, followed by Schmitt with 20%, Hartzler with 16%, and Long with 8%. Twenty-seven percent were undecided. The margin of error was +/- 3 percentage points.

Incumbent Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) is not running for re-election.

As we wrote last week, Michigan gubernatorial candidate Ryan Kelley was arrested on June 9 on misdemeanor charges related to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach. A poll the Detroit Free Press commissioned from June 10-13 showed 45% undecided, Kelley with 17%, Garrett Soldano with 13%, Kevin Rinke with 12%, and two others with 5% or less. The margin of error was +/- 4.9 percentage points.

A Target Insyght and Michigan Information and Research Service poll from late May showed 49% undecided. Kelley had 19%, Rinke 15%, Tudor Dixon 9%, and Soldano 6%. The margin of error was +/- 5 percentage points.

The primary is on Aug. 2.

Indiana Republican Party delegates nominated Diego Morales for secretary of state during the partys state convention on June 18. Morales will run against Destiny Wells (D) and Jeff Maurer (L) in the general election. Four candidates competed for the nomination: Morales, incumbent Holli Sullivan, Paul Hager, and David Shelton.

In Indiana, political parties nominate candidates for lieutenant governor, secretary of state, state auditor, state treasurer, and attorney general at state party conventions.

Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) appointed Sullivan in 2021. The Indianapolis Stars Kaitlin Lange wrote that with some frustration within the Republican party over Holcombs handling of the pandemic and other policy choices, [Sullivans] ties to the establishment hurt her campaign more than they helped as she faced three other candidates. [Morales] primarily garnered the support of the more conservative faction of the party, capitalizing on discontent with Holcomb and those associated with him.

According to the Associated Press Tom Davies, Morales said the 2020 presidential election was a scam. Brian Howey of Howey Politics Indiana wrote, [Morales] campaign says that he was misquoted His campaign texted this statement from Morales: I proudly voted for Trump twice, but Joe Biden was elected president in 2020 and legitimately occupies that office today. There were a number of irregularities in that election, including the secretary of state in Pennsylvania changing election rules only 30 days before election day. Those kinds of actions are unacceptable.'

According to Davies, Morales wants to shorten the early voting period, require proof of U.S. citizenship from newly registering voters, and create an election task force.

Colorado and Oklahoma hold primaries on June 28. Weve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Colorado

Oklahoma

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

More here:
Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 28 Ballotpedia News - Ballotpedia News

The only thing standing in the Republicans' way in the 2022 midterm elections is their own candidates.

Nowhere does that promise to be a bigger problem than in Pennsylvania.

Two polls this month have found that the Republican candidates for governor and Senate are trailing their Democratic opponents despite the favorable political environment. In the governors race, state Sen. Doug Mastriano is trailing state Attorney General Josh Shapiro by 3 points in an AARP poll and 4 points in a USA Today/Suffolk University poll. Television doctor Mehmet Oz is trailing Lt. Gov. John Fetterman in their Senate clash by 6 points in the AARP poll and by 9 points in the USA Today/Suffolk University poll.

Republican voters gave Democrats exactly what they wanted in the race for governor. Mastriano was the opponent Shapiro wanted. He even ran advertisements boosting the Republicans name recognition during the primary. Mastriano wanted to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in Pennsylvania and supported former President Donald Trumps conspiracy theory that the election was stolen.

Its not hard to see why Shapiro thought this would be a favorable matchup.

Oz had little business becoming the GOP nominee for Senate. He was a daytime talk show host with questionable conservative credentials, a questionable history of medical advice, and questionable ties to Turkey. Yet GOP primary voters pushed him over the finish line, with encouragement from Trump. Now, he is trailing Fetterman, who hasnt been seen in public for over a month after having a stroke. Roughly 63% of Pennsylvanians view Oz unfavorably.

It is still possible that both will win their races. President Joe Biden isnt getting any more popular. But the fact that both Mastriano and Oz are trailing at this point bodes ill for their chances. Democrats have both races right where they would want them at this juncture, and the time and money needed to keep both candidates afloat would be better spent elsewhere.

Mastriano gives Democrats the best chance of maintaining control of the state, and Oz is jeopardizing the GOPs chances at retaking the Senate majority. They can both be added to the list of GOP liabilities in winnable races. If they both end up losing, Pennsylvania Republicans will have no one to blame but themselves.

Originally posted here:
Pennsylvania Republicans gave Democrats the best chance to win - Washington Examiner

from the told-ya dept

For a while now, as Democrats have insisted that the two main antitrust bills that have been able to scrape together bipartisan support wont have any impact on content moderation, we keep pointing out that the only reason they have Republican support is because Republicans want it to impact content moderation. After all, Ted Cruz was practically gleeful when he talked about using this bill to unleash the trial lawyers to sue over moderation.

Earlier this week, we cheered on a proposal from four Democratic Senators, led by Brian Schatz, to add a tiny amendment to the AICOA bill to say that it cant be used to create liability for content moderation. If, as Senator Amy Klobuchar and others supporting this bill (including my friends at EFF and Fight for the Future) are correct that this bill already cannot be abused to enable litigation over content moderation, this amendment shouldnt be a problem. All it would be doing is clarifying that the bill doesnt do exactly what those supporters say it shouldnt be read to do.

Except the Republicans cant help themselves but to give up the game. The Federalist, not generally the most trustworthy of news sources but generally a reliable mouthpiece for Trumpist Republicans ran an article about the Schatz proposal, saying flat out that Republicans would pull their support for AICOA if the minor amendment Schatz suggested is included.

First, lets remind everyone how simple the proposed amendment is:

Protection for Content Moderation Practices.Nothing in section 3(a)(3) may be construed to impose liability on a covered platform operator for moderating content on the platform or otherwise inhibit the authority of a covered platform operator to moderate content on the platform, including such authority under the First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States, section 230(c) of the Communications Act of 1934 (47 U.S.C. 230(c)), or any other provision of law.

Thats it. If you dont think this bill can or should be used to sue over content moderation, then this shouldnt be a problem. But if you do think websites should be sued for their editorial discretion, well then its a problem. And according to the Federalist, its a real problem. It notes that this Amendment would kill the only conservative or populist ideas along for the ride on the bill.

In other words, its flat out admitting that, as weve been saying all along, the only reason Republicans support the bill is that they see it as a Trojan Horse to sue over content moderation decisions.

And thus, the Federalist notes that nearly all Republicans supporting the bill would walk if this tiny Amendment is included:

Sen. Chuck Grassley, the lead Senate sponsor of the bill, has reportedly already promised Republicans will walk if the changes are made, and hes right: Populists and conservatives like Sens. Josh Hawley, Sen. Ted Cruz, and Rep. Matt Gaetz would flee.

As if to confirm that Republicans will bail if the law is explicit that it doesnt do what supporters of the bill insist it doesnt do, Rep. Ken Buck (who is the lead Republican sponsor of the companion bill in the House) tweeted out the Federalist article, implying that he, too, would bail if the bill is clarified to say it has no impact on content moderation:

So, there you have it. Supporters of the bill can deny all they want that the bill can be used to sue over content moderation decisions, but the Republicans are flat out telling them that the only reason they support the bill is because they believe it can be used to sue over content moderation decisions.

Honestly, that should make supporters of the bill think hard about what it is theyre actually supporting here.

Filed Under: aicoa, amy klobuchar, antitrust, brian schatz, chuck grassley, content moderation, ken buck

Read the original here:
Republicans Announce That If Content Moderation Is Written Out Of Antitrust Bills, They'll Pull Their Support - Techdirt

Veteran GOP pollster Frank Luntz said on Thursday that a recent New Hampshire poll showing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) narrowly edging out former President Trump indicates Republicans are saying its time to move on from Trump.

During an interview on CNNs New Day, Luntz and the networks chief White House correspondent, Kaitlan Collins, spoke about the University of New Hampshires latest Granite State Poll, which found that 39 percent of likely GOP primary voters in the state would back DeSantis as their first choice in a list of Republicans who are considered possible presidential candidates.Trump, meanwhile, received 37 percent support in that poll. The results are within the surveys margin of error of 5.5 percentage points.

DeSantis is the greatest threat to Trump when it comes to the Republican Party, Collins said.

Its more than a threat, Luntz noted. The governor is proving that his approach and what hes trying to accomplish and what he has accomplished in Florida is more significant and Republicans are now saying its time to move on.

The pollster noted that Trump is still the most popular political figure within the GOP, adding that the former president now has a specific challenger for the upcoming 2024 presidential election.

Trump and DeSantis have not officially announced that they are running in the 2024 presidential election, though the former president has at times teased the possibility.

The development comes against the backdrop of hearings conducted by the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot, which have sought to show the role that Trump and his allies have played in pressuring then-Vice President Mike Pence and state officials to overturn the 2020 election results.

Theres now polling out that shows that Donald Trump is actually paying a price for what these hearings are showing, Luntz said on Thursday.

Read more here:
GOP pollster Frank Luntz: Republicans are saying its time to move on from Trump - The Hill

Former President Donald Trump has railed against the January 6 panel's public hearings.Chet Strange/Getty Images

Frank Luntz, a GOP pollster, told CNN that Trump is "paying a price" over the January 6 hearings.

He added that Trump can "send out his emails," but they're "having less and less of an impact."

Luntz also commented on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, calling him "more than a threat" to Trump.

Conservative pollster Frank Luntz said this week that he thinks former President Donald Trump's popularity is being damaged by the January 6 panel's public hearings on the Capitol riot.

Speaking on CNN's New Day program, Luntz said the panel focused "too much" on politicians but commented that the hearings are still hurting Trump.

"Donald Trump is actually paying a price for what these hearings are showing. So it's having an impact, even among Republicans," Luntz said.

He also commented on the public hearings not providing enough visual material of the actual riot.

"And in the end, the American people react to the visuals, not just the verbal, not just the conversation, and it is those visuals that proved to them that something really awful happened on January 6," he added.

Luntz also told CNN that polling in New Hampshire showed that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is ahead of Trump in the state.

"Ron DeSantis is actually ahead of Donald Trump in a very credible survey. Trump's numbers are actually falling. And that is what's changing the dynamic here," Luntz said, adding that these changing impressions might influence whether Trump eventually runs for president again in 2024.

Asked about how DeSantis might fare in 2024, Luntz told CNN that the Florida governor was now "more than a threat" to Trump. Luntz highlighted that DeSantis had been proving himself and giving Republicans an opportunity to say that "it's time to move on" from Trump.

"Make no mistake, Donald Trump is the most popular political figure within the Republican Party, but there is now a specific challenger," Luntz said. "And Trump can yell and scream and send out his emails, I'm on his list, and they're all emotional, and they all are meant to blow things up, but they're having less and less of an impact with every single month."

Story continues

Luntz has openly criticized Trump on several occasions. For instance, in May last year, Luntz said Trump's baseless claims of voter fraud might cost the GOP the House in 2022. In April, Luntz revealed that Republican lawmakers were privately "laughing at" Trump behind his back because they think of him as a "child."

Meanwhile, Trump has railed against the January 6 panel's public hearings, demanding equal airtime on national TV and releasing a 12-page statement bashing the investigation while continuing to tout his baseless claims of voter fraud.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Link:
Top GOP pollster says Trump is 'paying a price' even among Republicans for what the January 6 hearings have revealed - Yahoo News