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Voters take to the polls in the early hours of the morning on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022, during the 2022 Midterm Elections at Ladue City Hall in Ladue, Mo. Brian Munoz/St. Louis Public Radio hide caption

Voters take to the polls in the early hours of the morning on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022, during the 2022 Midterm Elections at Ladue City Hall in Ladue, Mo.

ST. LOUIS Missouri may soon be a barometer for how abortion-related ballot initiatives can affect elections in Republican-led states.

If advocates and volunteers turn in enough signatures by May 5, Missourians will vote on an abortion-rights initiative in November.

Some Democrats in the state hope it energizes voters enough to help candidates running for key statewide and state legislative posts, but in some respects, having the ability to pick and choose policies through a robust initiative petition process could be a double-edged sword.

Voters in Missouri could show that abortion rights initiatives are not a down-ballot Democratic dream everywhere, especially if GOP voters who dislike their party's views on abortion rights still like candidates on most other issues.

Desiree White, a Missouri resident, says the state has the opportunity to break from widespread assumptions about its politics and voting habits.

White is a volunteer for Missourians for Constitutional Freedom, a group trying to repeal the state's ban on most abortions. As she helped gather the signatures needed to appear on the ballot, White says there's ample evidence that Missouri is not some "throwaway state" when it comes to abortion rights just because it tends to back GOP candidates.

"We're not too red," White says. "We long for our freedoms here in all aspects."

Public opinion may show the same. "We know from polling, and from results in other states, that there are a fair number of Republican voters who will vote Republican in other elections, but they don't agree with their party on abortion rights," says Kyle Kondik, who is with the University of Virginia-based Sabato's Crystal Ball. "They can place themselves on a spectrum of supporting abortion rights and say: 'Hey, maybe I even think that this ballot issue is too permissive. However, it's closer to my position than this current law in Missouri, which is among the most draconian in the country.' "

Bryan Pyle poses for a portrait in his home on Thursday, April 25, 2024, in Kirkwood, Mo. Pyle is conservative in his political views, but is against a ban on abortion. Eric Lee/St. Louis Public Radio hide caption

Bryan Pyle poses for a portrait in his home on Thursday, April 25, 2024, in Kirkwood, Mo. Pyle is conservative in his political views, but is against a ban on abortion.

St. Louis County resident Bryan Pyle may be a great example of the type of voter Kondik is talking about.

Pyle signed the Missourians for Constitutional Freedom ballot initiative, which would allow abortion up to what's known as fetal viability. That's defined in the initiative as a point when a medical professional determines a fetus could survive outside of the womb without extraordinary medical intervention.

"We don't need to have people take the rights from other people because they don't like it," Pyle says. "And we should all have the right to make our own decisions."

But Pyle, who voted for Republican candidates in 2016 and 2020, expects to vote for the GOP in 2024. That corresponds with recent polling from Saint Louis University and YouGov showing that 24% of Republican respondents would vote for the Missourians for Constitutional Freedom initiative. That same survey shows a Republican winning the governor's race without too much trouble.

"The best bet that Republicans have in the state is that they get the voters to put their 'red jerseys' on and look at the abortion rights issue as a kind of partisan issue," Kondik says. "But again, my guess is there'll be a significant number of voters who don't do that. And you can imagine it passing even in the midst of an otherwise Republican environment."

Split ticket voting behavior is common in Missouri, where Republicans control all statewide offices and both U.S. Senate seats but thanks to an initiative petition process allowing groups to circumvent the legislature, Missourians have enacted fairly left-of-center policies expanding Medicaid and raising the minimum wage. They also legalized marijuana for adult use and instituted campaign donations.

Some of those results stem from underfunded opposition campaigns. Still, others say it's part of a broader trend allowing voters to back policies that may depart from their chosen candidates' political orthodoxy.

"You're asking voters a single question," says pollster Christine Matthews, who runs Virginia-based Bellwether Research and Consulting. "And they're only considering the abortion issue. When you're looking at a candidate, you're looking at them with a whole lot of different positions and needs and frames in mind."

For their part, GOP candidates in Missouri aren't too worried about abortion rights upending their bids for office in 2024.

U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley, for instance, says he welcomes Missourians deciding for themselves whether to legalize abortion or keep the ban in place. Hawley opposes abortion rights except in cases of rape, incest or the life of the mother. That's out of step with Missouri's law, which doesn't have exceptions for rape or incest.

Democratic Missouri state Representative Ashley Aune, poses for a portrait on Thursday, Jan. 25, 2024, at the state Capitol in Jefferson City. Eric Lee/St. Louis Public Radio hide caption

Democratic Missouri state Representative Ashley Aune, poses for a portrait on Thursday, Jan. 25, 2024, at the state Capitol in Jefferson City.

"My whole adult life I said Roe is wrong because the Constitution gives us the choice of the people," Hawley said earlier this year. "My view is, you gotta let the people decide. So if the people want to vote on this, we should vote on it. We can vote on it every year if they want to."

The three major Republican candidates seeking to succeed Missouri Gov. Mike Parson aren't worried they'll suffer electoral blowback either even if the abortion initiative goes before voters in November.

Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe says it's possible that the initiative could motivate socially conservative voters especially in rural counties and conservative suburbs where the GOP gained ground in the past decade.

"Even if there's Missourians who say there might be some medical exceptions or exceptions for rape or incest, I think if they knew how far it allows it to go it would give them pause," Kehoe says.

Still, recent history shows that abortion rights can impact down-ballot elections. Back in 2012, then-U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill won a resounding reelection victory over GOP opponent former U.S. Rep. Todd Akin. Akin set off a national firestorm after he said on a local television program, "If it's a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down."

Even current GOP candidates, such as gubernatorial hopeful Jay Ashcroft, Missouri's secretary of state, say they don't think the effect of an abortion rights initiative will be nonexistent on other contests. He says it's possible that it could affect state legislative contests, especially in suburban districts where the two parties are more evenly divided.

"Maybe there's certain suburban districts, those kind of 50/50 House districts, or one or two state Senate districts, where maybe that changes the electorate enough to change who gets elected," says Ashcroft.

And Democrats like Lucas Kunce, one of the Democrats running against Sen. Hawley, say the reason to get the abortion rights ballot item up to Missouri voters has less to do with the political impact and more about overturning what he sees as a cruel and overreaching ban.

"The importance of that is not my race, it's the importance of giving women access to the health care that they need," Kunce says. "It is about taking care of everyday Missourians and taking away the weird control that our politicians want to have over women and giving them the ability to make their own decisions."

Missouri state Senator Bill Eigel, a Republican, gestures as he debates with Republican Missouri Senate Floor Leader Cindy O'Laughlin, not pictured, during session on Thursday, Jan. 25, 2024, in Jefferson City. Eric Lee/St. Louis Public Radio hide caption

Missouri state Senator Bill Eigel, a Republican, gestures as he debates with Republican Missouri Senate Floor Leader Cindy O'Laughlin, not pictured, during session on Thursday, Jan. 25, 2024, in Jefferson City.

Unlike other states such as Wisconsin, Missouri's robust initiative petition process makes legalizing abortion possible, but that may change.

Missouri lawmakers have been trying to place another ballot item, presumably on the August ballot, that would raise the threshold to amend the state's constitution. Some lawmakers also want to place other items into the initiative, such as a measure barring noncitizens from voting.

"Folks are rightfully looking for Republicans in the legislature to lead on this issue and protect the constitution," says Missouri Sen. Bill Eigel, who like Kehoe and Ashcroft, is running for governor.

Democrats have decried the other items in the initiative petition overhaul as "ballot candy" meant to confuse voters from the real purpose: making it nearly impossible for organizations to place ballot items up for a vote.

"The voters are not going to be fooled by this effort," says Democratic state Rep. Ashley Aune, noting a similar effort fell flat in Ohio. "What they're trying to do is essentially to end majority rule."

Sen. John Rizzo, the Democratic leader of the Missouri Senate, says he's tried to warn his Republican colleagues that a successful effort to gut the initiative petition process could backfire on the GOP.

He says giving people the right to pick policies different from the candidates they ultimately vote for may help Republicans in the long run.

"That's the thing that allows them to go around the legislature," Rizzo says. "And if they can't do that, and they can't go around the legislature, they're gonna start changing the legislature."

Karlie Kloss, right, speaks to a volunteer for Missourians for Constitutional Freedom, a group attempting to legalize abortion in the state, on Monday, April 1, 2024, at Congregation Shaare Emeth in Creve Coeur, Mo. Brian Munoz/St. Louis Public Radio hide caption

Karlie Kloss, right, speaks to a volunteer for Missourians for Constitutional Freedom, a group attempting to legalize abortion in the state, on Monday, April 1, 2024, at Congregation Shaare Emeth in Creve Coeur, Mo.

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom are slated to turn in their signatures by May 5. In addition to getting thousands of volunteer signature gatherers and millions of dollars in campaign donations, the campaign also received support from fashion icon Karlie Kloss.

Kloss was in the St. Louis area earlier this month to gather signatures for the abortion initiative. Like other volunteers, she noticed that a good share of people who wanted to sign the petition were Republicans who disagreed with their party on the right to a legal abortion.

"It's no secret that there's an enormous amount of bipartisan support," Kloss said earlier this month in an interview with St. Louis Public Radio. "Many signatures and people showing up here today and organizing this effort are Republicans as well as Democrats."

Kloss, who grew up in the St. Louis suburb of Webster Groves, said the rest of the country should pay attention to what's happening in Missouri and not just for political implications. The lack of abortion access is causing stress on smaller health care facilities, especially in Illinois where the procedure is legal. That's one of the reasons she started a group called the Gateway Coalition to support those facilities.

"It's devastating to me the reality of what is happening and how it has become so politicized," Kloss said. "Because to me, this is a conversation that belongs between an individual and their physician, and an individual and their loved ones. Politicians should not be involved."

Missourians should know sometime over the summer if they're going to vote to legalize abortion.

"To me, this issue is about dignity," Kloss said.

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Voters could support abortion rights and Republicans in November - NPR

Washington, D.C. House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA), Subcommittee on Communications and Technology Chair Bob Latta (R-OH), and Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations Chair Morgan Griffith (R-VA) wrote to NPR CEO Katherine Maher regarding reports of political and ideological bias at the taxpayer-funded public radio organization. In addition to requesting answers to questions, the letter requests Ms. Maher appear before the Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee for a hearing on May 8, 2024.

"The Committee has concerns about the direction in which NPR may be headed under past and present leadership. As a taxpayer funded, public radio organization, NPR should focus on fair and objective news reporting that both considers and reflects the views of the larger U.S. population and not just a niche audience," the Chairs wrote.

They continued , "We also find it disconcerting that NPRs coverage of major news in recent years has been so polarized as to preclude any need to uncover the truth. These have included news stories on matters of national security and importance, such as the Mueller report, the Hunter Biden laptop, and the COVID-19 origins investigation. On each of these issues, NPR has been accused of approaching its news reporting with an extreme left-leaning lens."

In light of the recent, disturbing revelations about National Public Radio (NPR) and its leadership, Ive directed Chair McMorris Rodgers and the Energy and Commerce Committee to conduct an investigation of NPR and determine what actions should be taken to hold the organization accountable for its ideological bias and contempt for facts. The American people support the free press but will not be made to fund a left-leaning political agenda with taxpayer funds. saidSpeaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) regarding the effort.

CLICK HERE to read the letter.

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E&C Republicans Open Investigation into Allegations of Political Bias at Taxpayer-Funded NPR, Request Attendance ... - Energy and Commerce Committee

WASHINGTON Republican lawmakers have one big message on the avian flu outbreak in cows: Calm down.

As the H5N1 strain hops from birds to more than 36 dairy farms in nine states, both Democratic and Republican lawmakers have pressed the Biden administration for quick and clear information on the risks for dairy cows and, potentially, people. But even as new tests show pasteurized milk is safe and agriculture officials impose testing regimens for interstate cattle moves, Republicans have another burgeoning concern that alarm means harm for the dairy industry.

The issue I have is, because its been talked about emotionally, people may respond to that, said Glenn Thompson (R-Pa.), chairman of the House Agriculture Committee. I just point to the swine flu [outbreak in 2009] that had nothing to do with hogs [but] had a significant negative impact on the hog industry.

There has been one reported transmission of the current H5N1 strain to a farm worker, in Texas. Scientists and federal officials have said that while viral fragments in pasteurized milk do not appear harmful, raw milk popular in states like Thompsons, where it is legally sold could still pose a threat.

My concern is [the Biden administration is] going to be using this for more fear porn, said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), a vocal critic of the administrations response to another infectious disease crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic. His state, Wisconsin, has reported H5N1 cases in birds but not cows.

Republicans insist they are not dismissing initiatives to bolster infectious disease resources, at least among livestock. Thompsons committee on Wednesday released an outline for its renewal of the expansive Farm Bill, which allows oversight and support for agricultural programs that include the dairy industry, now in the throes of new testing and surveillance demands.

The bill summary says it brings together provisions related to livestock health and management, foreign animal disease preparedness. Thompson told STAT that these efforts predated the H5N1 outbreak, but that he is also separately pushing for more funds to back up the initiatives.

Basically, were trying to double what we invest in terms of the trifecta of animal health, or research, infrastructure, and personnel, he told STAT on Tuesday. That would be a roughly $2 billion investment through the budget process that he said has broad support.

The Farm Bill is scheduled for a May 23 markup by Thompsons committee, its first step towards passage; a new federal budget, on the other hand, is on a distant horizon. In the meantime, state health officials and farm workers have already expressed concerns about keeping up with new federal testing requirements for dairy cows.

Scientists and even some Democrats say that testing, and the federal governments information-sharing, have been too limited to get a clear picture of the H5N1 risk for other cows and potentially humans.

Some were left shocked when the Food and Drug Administration and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last month released data showing that cases among cows were more widespread than previously thought, and that viral fragments were found in milk.

The basic question here is why wasnt more done to prevent this? Once this moves into cattle, potentially pigs, all this is increasing the chances for it to be contagious in humans, said Nigel Sizer, executive director of a network of scientific research and advocacy organizations, Preventing Pandemics at the Source.

Stephen Ostroff, a former FDA deputy commissioner for food and veterinary medicine, also voiced concerns about how widespread testing truly is, and the lack of clear public communication about risks.

Its very reminiscent of the early stages of Covid, when we were flying a little bit blind, because we simply didnt have sufficient testing capacity to be able to know exactly who was infected, said Ostroff. The lack of context for it is really a challenge. How many samples were tested? Where were they from?

Democrats from dairy-laden states are also calling for a federal action plan to aid farmers struggling to isolate and test herds.

The federal government has to step up to help our dairy farmers and producers weather and combat this outbreak, stop the spread of this virus, and ensure consumers know what is being done to keep them safe, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) said in a letter to agriculture officials Thursday.

But at least for now, Republicans are urging Americans to not panic.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), the highest ranking Republican on the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee, in April asked federal health and agriculture officials for committee briefings on the bird flu developments.

He told STAT on Tuesday that he texted CDC Director Mandy Cohen directly and they are trying to set up a briefing, and she stressed that its not spread to humans.

Cassidy admitted hed like to have more information about potential risks, but it seems like they are appropriately monitoring it.

See more here:
Republicans, concerned about dairy industry, urge calm about H5N1 bird flu - STAT

House Speaker Mike Johnson and top Republican leaders on Tuesday said they were stepping up their efforts to combat antisemitism on college campuses, including by holding additional hearings with top university administrators and potentially withholding millions of federal dollars from universities that fail to keep Jewish students safe.

The federal government plays a critical role in higher education, and we will use all the tools available to us to address this scourge, said Mr. Johnson, who last week visited Columbia University and said he would support the National Guard being deployed there if pro-Palestinian protests, which he said had grown violent and antisemitic, continued.

A news conference called to discuss what was billed as a House-wide crackdown on the virus of antisemitism spreading throughout college campuses was the latest example of Republicans finding fresh ways to publicly condemn the unrest that has erupted on campuses across the country over Israels war in Gaza, and to exploit the divisions the conflict has exposed among Democrats.

It was a House hearing Republicans called in December to discuss antisemitism on campuses that intensified public scrutiny of how university administrators were dealing with the pro-Palestinian protests, and the G.O.P. has missed few opportunities since then to spotlight those issues.

Attacking elite institutions of higher education has long been a conservative preoccupation. But in the current moment, Republicans also see immediate political advantages. It has given them an attack line against President Biden and Democrats, who they argue have been unwilling to condemn protests that veer into antisemitism or move to shut them down for fear of angering their progressive base, much of which sympathizes with the pro-Palestinian protests.

At the same time, the issue has united a fractured Republican Party that has tried to position itself as the true friend of Jewish Americans and of Israel.

Mr. Johnson said there had been lawlessness and chaos on campuses throughout the country, and that at Columbia University in particular, pro-Hamas agitators had taken over the campus, which he said had become a bastion of anti-Jewish hatred.

Representative Tom Emmer of Minnesota, the No. 3 Republican, said his goal was to deliver a message to the university administrators who have chosen to be complicit in these movements for hate.

Representative Virginia Foxx, Republican of North Carolina and chairwoman of the Committee on Education and the Workforce, said she had summoned administrators from Yale, U.C.L.A. and the University of Michigan to appear before a House panel on May 23.

We have come to take our universities back, said Ms. Foxx, who was with Mr. Johnson at Columbia last week.

Representative Frank Lucas, Republican of Oklahoma and chair of the Committee on Science, Space and Technology, said the universities that had allowed the protests to grow were no longer in compliance for funding from the National Science Foundation. He said his committee would study whether they had violated the conditions for receiving taxpayer dollars.

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House Republicans, Seeking Political Edge Amid College Protests, Spotlight Antisemitism - The New York Times

The 2024 presidential race remains extremely close between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, according to the latest polling from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist. Evan Vucci/AP; Eduardo Munoz/pool/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

The 2024 presidential race remains extremely close between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, according to the latest polling from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist.

The fear factor is real in America, but Democrats and Republicans are scared for the country's future for different reasons, the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.

They also believe very differently about what children who will inherit that future should be taught.

Looking at this year's presidential election, the survey also found big shifts with key voter groups, along generational, racial and educational lines.

It also explored how third-party candidates and so-called "double haters" who have unfavorable ratings of both President Biden and former President Donald Trump could affect the race.

Finally, it finds a jump in Republicans now believing Trump has done something unethical, as he continues to contend with dozens of criminal charges and legal troubles.

Democrats overwhelmingly said teaching children to treat others as you would want to be treated, the "Golden Rule," is the most important value to teach children. That was followed farther back by "education being the key to success" and "be happy and follow your dreams."

Democrats are most concerned about a rise in extremism and fascism, topping everything else by a wide margin.

Republicans, on the other hand, said instilling children with faith in God, teaching them that hard work and discipline pay off, and to abide by the "Golden Rule" were most important.

Their biggest concerns for the country were a lack of values and becoming weak as a nation.

Fewer than half of respondents said they're following Trump's New York hush money trial closely, but with the Republican primary over and Trump's continued legal troubles, a majority of Republicans now say they believe Trump has done something wrong, whether that's something unethical or illegal.

The number of Republicans saying Trump has done something unethical has jumped 12 points since February, from 34% to 46%. Still, only 8% of Republicans think he's done something illegal, compared to almost half of respondents overall (47%).

A whopping 77% overall think Trump has done something illegal or at least unethical, and a majority believes the investigations into his conduct are fair.

When looking at the presidential election, Biden and Trump remain in a virtual tie among registered voters, with 50% for Biden and 48% for Trump. Among people who say they are "definitely voting" in November, Biden's lead expands out to 5 points, 52%-47%. The survey shows Biden is doing better with groups that say they're likely or definitely voting older voters and college-educated whites, in particular.

That may seem like the same old story two well-known candidates who were expected to be in a close race are now in a close race. But the top line numbers mask important shifts taking place by age, race and education.

Here are some key findings:

Age

Race and education

Polls have been unclear about which candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has the potential to pull support from more. This survey shows him taking a bit more from Biden than from Trump.

Biden's 2-point lead with all adults and 5-point lead with registered voters evaporates when RFK Jr. and others are considered. RFK Jr. takes in 11% of the vote, which is about how much he's been registering on average in previous Marist polls and other surveys.

It's no secret that there's a lot of cynicism and disaffection among many voters. Highlighting the country's partisanship, respondents said both men essentially represent equal threats to democracy, and majorities say they dislike both.

In this survey, 56% have an unfavorable view of Trump, and 54% have an unfavorable opinion of Biden. That's the well from which RFK Jr. is drawing.

In a matchup between Biden, Trump and RFK Jr., RFK Jr. gets 31% with those who have an unfavorable rating of both Trump and Biden, the "double haters." Another 31% of the "double haters," when faced with this choice, chose Trump and only 20% side with Biden.

That's a major warning sign for Biden because in 2020, Biden did well with "double haters," according to Democratic pollsters. When it's just Biden against Trump, the two men are statistically tied with the group, 46% for Trump, 45% for Biden.

Among the other groups RFK Jr. gets his most support: independent women (22%), independents overall (17%), those in the West (15%), parents with children under 18 (14%), white women with college degrees (14%), those under 45 (13%) and Gen Z/Millennials.

The survey of 1,199 adults was conducted April 22-25 by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/- 3.6 percentage points.

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2024 election poll: Trump vs. Biden and what Republicans and Democrats fear - NPR