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After years of anti-Bush and pro-Obama surges, Republicans began to recapture Senate seats in traditionally red states Tuesday as part of what analysts said is a swing toward what should be a natural GOP majority in the upper chamber of Congress.

Although messaging and money mattered, the general tilt of the election was defined early by the number of GOP-leaning states. The only question was whether Republicans would gain enough to win at least 51 seats, or a majority, in the Senate.

Were seeing the inevitable, irresistible drive of statistics to find its settling point, and these states are reverting back to what they are: Republican states electing statewide Republican officials, said Michael McKenna, a Republican strategist who has tracked Senate trends.

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Indeed, that was exactly what some voters said they were doing when they went to the polls in places such as West Virginia and South Dakota, which shook off longtime Democratic senators and embraced Republicans in what was a calculated party recalibration.

In the last presidential race, West Virginia was a red state. I think we should also have a red senator, Rikki Twyford, 35, said as she cast her ballot in Charles Town for the Republican nominee, Rep. Shelley Moore Capito.

West Virginia has been trending Republican for more than a decade and voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000, but both of its U.S. senators were Democrats.

One of those, Sen. Joe Manchin III, is the most conservative in the Senate. The other, Sen. John D. Rockefeller IV, is surrendering his seat after 30 years, and Democrats put up only token opposition.

Louisiana and Arkansas are also in the midst of a Republican transformation, trailing other Southern states by a decade or so.

But Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University, said Republicans shouldnt count on a presumptive majority.

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Republican Senate wins in red states reflect a natural recalibration

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WASHINGTON The battle over which party controls the Senate and whats left of President Obamas agenda is riding on a few toss-up races as Republicans were positioning to take over.

GOP candidates have been gaining ground in Georgia, Colorado, Kentucky and Iowa, battlegrounds closing in on the six-seat gain the party would need to call the shots in the chamber for the first time since 2006.

In a sign of optimism, the Republican National Committee was the only one of the political committees in DC to schedule a party at the swank W hotel near the White House.

Asked about Election Night party plans at the White House, Press Secretary Josh Earnest replied, Not that I know of.

Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report is bullish on the GOP.

I sense Republican momentum in Colorado and Iowa, she said. If Republicans win both of those, its very hard to see how they dont win the Senate Majority.

Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin gave the opposition a gift in his home state of Iowa with a bone-headed remark about Republican Senate candidate Joni Ernst.

I dont care if shes as good looking as Taylor Swift or as nice as Mr. Rogers, but if she votes like [conservative Rep.] Michele Bachmann, shes wrong for the state of Iowa, Harkin said.

Ernst, a former combat vet, said she was very offended by the comment.

But her opponent, Bruce Braley, who hopes to succeed Harkin, got good news when a new Quinnipiac University poll had the race tied taking some of the sting out of a weekend Des Moines Register survey that showed him in deep trouble and down 7 points.

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Key Senate races lean Republican in bid for control