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The most likely Republican presidential candidate for 2016 is . . . Mitt Romney?

The former Massachusetts governor has run and lost two bids for the White House in the 2008 Republican primaries and again in the 2012 general election. Whats more, he proved to be a foot-in-mouth candidate who blew his chances of winning in 2012 by writing off 47% of the electorate and suggesting that illegal immigrants self-deport.

And yet, establishment insiders in the GOP tell me that the third time may be the charm.

The smart folks in the party are not committed to any presidential candidate this early, said Scott Reed, the senior political strategist for the US Chamber of Commerce, the powerful business lobby that has scored a string of establishment victories over Tea Party candidates in this years Republican primaries. But Romney cant be dismissed as the guy who lost last time.

You watch him on TV these days, and hes a new guy with total command of the issues and a real presence, Reed added. He could throw an organization together and get the money.

Mitt Romney speaks during a campaign rally in Nevada in 2012.Photo: Getty Images

A wealthy New York-based Republican with close ties to members of the donor class, who spoke to me on the condition of anonymity, wholeheartedly agrees.

Most of the people I talk to who are involved in Republican politics as donors want a winner, he told me. And many of these people are talking about Romney because so many of the things he said in 2012 about Russia being a geopolitical foe and people losing their health insurance under ObamaCare have come to pass.

Until a few months ago, the favorite among establishment Republicans was Chris Christie. And there are still those in the GOP, such as Kenneth Langone, the billionaire co-founder of The Home Depot, who support the New Jersey governor.

You watch him on TV these days, and hes a new guy with total command of the issues and a real presence. He could throw an organization together and get the money.-Political strategist Scott Reed

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Why Mitt Romney may again be the GOPs next great hope

As of 2014, 19 states -- 18 of which are led by Republican governors -- have declined outright to...

The Republican fight against Medicaid expansion is far from over, but there are fewer opponents than there used to be.

The expansion of the government health insurance program was originally supposed to be mandatory under the Affordable Care Act, but the Supreme Court made it optional as part of a landmark decision on the law in June of 2012.

In the wake of the decision, Republican governors flocked to announce they were declining to expand coverage.

As of 2014, 19 states 18 of which are led by Republican governors have declined outright to expand coverage, but some former holdouts are beginning to come to terms with expansion.

This week, Pennsylvania formally agreed to terms with federal regulators, raising the number of states that have expanded coverage for low-income residents under Obamacare to 27. Pennsylvania is the ninth state led by a Republican governor to expand Medicaid.

Another Republican, Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam, also announced Friday that his state will begin the process of preparing a plan for Medicaid expansion.

The state is expected to pursue a hybrid plan to help lower-income residents enroll in plans on the Obamacare exchanges.

Tennessee joins Utah and Indiana in the pool of states where Republican governors are actively negotiating with the Obama administration to expand coverage, and more states could be joining the pool soon.

Democratic governors in Missouri and Virginia are on record for supporting expansion, but have have failed to persuade their respective legislatures to go along.

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Is the Republican fight against Medicaid expansion over?

The New Hampshire Firearms Coalition issued its "Primary Grades" report Saturday and U.S. Senate Republican hopeful Bob Smith earned an A+, which is a mark given to what the group calls a "Second Amendment Leader."

Republican hopefuls Scott Brown received an "F" and Jim Rubens received an "RS," which "indicates a deliberate refusal to accept or respond" to the survey, according to the coalition.

Rubens received an A rating recently from Gun Owners of New Hampshire. Smith was endorsed last week by the Gun Owners of America. Both men were critical of Brown on gun rights during a WGIR-AM radio debate last week. Brown, a gun owner and retired colonel from the Army National Guard, said he had averaged an A- rating from the NRA, which Rubens and Smith challenged.

The New Hampshire Firearms Coalition issued ratings for other candidates with primaries. The ratings included:

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(A Saturday version of Granite Status is below:)

IT WAS DESIGNED in a "tasteful way," state Sen. David Boutin, R-Hooksett, says about one of his recent campaign fliers. The mailer pictures two babies and then a zinger: "These two babies have lived longer in Hooksett than my opponent," Boutin says.

In an interview, Boutin says he aimed to "let the voters know that my opponent just moved from Alton to Hooksett several weeks ago."

The opponent in question, Jane Cormier, is challenging him in the GOP primary for Senate District 16. The winner faces Democrat Maureen Raiche Manning of Manchester in the general election.District 16 represents Bow, Candia, Dunbarton, Hooksett and Wards 1, 2 and 12 in Manchester.

Boutin says he's received positive response to his baby mailer.

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Dan Tuohy's Granite Status Bob Smith gets A from NH Firearms Coalition

Potential Republican presidential candidates paraded before more than 3,000 conservative activists and donors from across the country here for a two-day summit that ended Saturday, touting their records and trying to look like the future of their party.

The eighth annual Defending the American Dream Summit was sponsored by Americans for Prosperity, among the most powerful conservative political groups in the country, backed by GOP donors Charles and David Koch, whose family amassed a fortune in the oil business.

It's not clear who the Koch brothers might back, given their support for Republican and libertarian causes.

David Koch attended the summit, at one point addressing the crowd and thanking the speakers, in particular Texas Gov. Rick Perry for hosting the summit.

Both Perry and junior Texas Sen. Ted Cruz received raucous applause when they appeared, with many chanting Saturday, "Run, Ted, run!"

"Oddly enough, that's the same thing my wife, Heidi, says to me when I go to the gym," Cruz quipped, never revealing during his speech or a briefing afterward whether he plans to run though he presented a pretty clear platform.

Cruz vowed to roll back Obamacare and hold the line against "amnesty" for immigrants who entered the country illegally, daring President Obama to "join me at the border." He suggested that the U.S. put more economic pressure on Russia for its actions in Ukraine and attack Islamic State "bomb them back to the Stone Age."

"We need a president who will stand up and use every tool at our disposal," Cruz said to applause and repeated standing ovations.

Greg Danson, 30, a conservative from Houston who works in the oil industry, said he was wowed by Cruz, who he said appears more intellectual than Perry, more like the future of the party than the folksy past of George W. Bush.

"I don't think Perry can win. He's not as good in debates. He's not going to beat Hillary," Danson said, alluding to the presumed candidacy of former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Perry, who has been visiting key primary states, emphasized his tough stance on border security.

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Potential GOP presidential hopefuls woo donors, activists at summit

U.S. Representative Ted Yoho, a Florida Republican whos aligned with the small-government Tea Party movement and opposed John Boehners re-election as House speaker, defeated a challenger in a primary today.

With 65 percent of precincts reporting, Yoho had 78 percent of the vote compared with 22 percent for lawyer Jake Rush, according to the Associated Press.

Yoho, seeking a second term, was among 12 Republicans who declined to back Boehner, an Ohio Republican, for another term as speaker in 2013. All 10 who sought re-election are favored to win new terms in the Nov. 4 general election; two ran for the Senate and lost. The bloc of House Republicans opposed to Boehner likely will be bigger after the election.

Yoho, 59, said earlier this month that opposing Boehner hasnt hampered his effectiveness in representing the 3rd District, noting House passage of a bill he sponsored and his service as the only Floridian on the Agriculture Committee.

Even with the challenge I did to leadership, its made our conference better because like-minded Republicans have changed the dynamics on issues including border security, Yoho said at a candidate forum Aug. 4 at Florida Gateway College in Lake City.

Yoho sided with Republican leaders and bucked small-government outside groups in voting last December for a budget deal crafted by Republican Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and Democratic Senator Patty Murray of Washington.

Yohos supporters include the Tea Party Express and FreedomWorks, a Washington-based group that also advocates for a limited federal government.

Rush, a political unknown, received outside help from a super-political action committee funded by his father and his aunt. Super-PACs may raise funds in unlimited amounts to independently aid or oppose candidates.

Yoho, a veterinarian, was a political neophyte in 2012 when he toppled 12-term Representative Cliff Stearns in the Republican primary. The district, which takes in most of Gainesville and some territory between Tallahassee and Jacksonville, is safely Republican in the Nov. 4 general election, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, a Washington group that rates political races.

In southern Florida, Republicans are seeking to reclaim two politically competitive districts Democrats wrested from them in the 2012 election.

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Floridas Yoho Wins Republican Primary Aiding Tea Party