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Cillizza: You've been openly critical of Trump for years. Why have so few Republican elected officials followed your lead?

Murphy: They have a lot more Republican primary voters to worry about than I do, I'm not the ballot!

That said, I am amazed after 30-plus years in this racket to see how many pols think being easily re-elected is the highest purpose they have in politics. It's not like we are asking these folks to land on Anzio beach or hold Pork Chop Hill ... all that is required is to show some guts against a blatant demagogue who is massively unprepared by temperament, knowledge or character to be President of the United States.

The threat, and now the problem, of somebody like that running amok in the Oval Office seems, at least to me, like something worth risking your re-election over. Yet our politics have become so careerist and tribal that way too many people seem to swallow their principles all too easily. It's very disappointing.

And I cannot image it's much fun to spend all of your time figuring out how to make yourself slide under a closed door to show you are both pro the "good" Trump and against the "bad" Trump at the same time. Of course after Trump is eventually driven from office, DC will be full of stories about the quiet yet brave patriots who courageously worked against Trump albeit from behind the scenes. Still, I have to applaud the exceptions; Lindsey Graham, Jeb Bush, Jeff Flake, Ben Sasse, John Kasich and a few more. The rest ought to study up on Vichy France.

Cillizza: Charlottesville. Is Trump's handling of what happened a real moment. As in, will Republicans look back and define his presidency as before Charlottesville and after it? If so, why? If not, why not?

Murphy: Yes, I think it was a true boiling-over point. I'm sure it did very little damage to Trump's hard core, but those folks are only enough to half-fill third-tier arenas in base GOP states, not hold the White House. And the energy of the anti-Trump forces is much higher now. Out here in California, they are beating their dreamcatchers into stabbing sticks. While there have been other Trump failures, it was this sad episode that truly revealed how Trump sees the world. He failed the big test of a President. He should have defended American values. Instead he proved he doesn't really understand what those values are. That has lit a very big political fuse.

Cillizza: What should Republican leaders -- in Congress and in the states -- do about Trump? Condemn? Censure? More?

Murphy: To their credit many did condemn Charlottesville, but it should have been far wider and it should have mentioned the President by name. On this issue subtlety is cowardice.

Cillizza: How much danger, in the long term, does Trump pose to the GOP if things continue as they have?

Murphy: Trump's numbers are horrible -- no surprise there after the seven months he's had -- and I don't know a single highly experienced GOP operative who is not deeply concerned about 2018 and the damage Trump is doing to our party.

That said, the future is unknown so I guess we'll have to wait and see. But if this isn't a complete smoldering train wreck, I don't know what one looks like. There remains a whiff of mystical faith in DC around Trump having the power to magically win after he proved the "experts," including me, wrong in 2016.

(But) the numbers show his win in 2016 was quite fluke-ish. He lost the popular vote by millions and only pulled his inside straight in the electoral college by a wafer-thin 78,000 or so votes out of nearly 14 million cast across Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. So his win was a bit of a card trick to begin with and his political strength today is much less than it was on election day in 2016. And demography is still marching against him.

Cillizza: Finish this sentence: "Donald Trump will be president until __________." Now, explain.

Murphy: Again, my crystal ball on Trump is 100% certified as badly cracked. But I'll try. "Donald Trump will be President until early 2019."

Here's why: First, he won't get better. There will be more Trump outrages, despite whatever staff shuffling occurs in the White House. Trump is the atomic clock of Trump craziness; he cannot change.

Second, I fear the GOP will have a very rough midterm election, particularly in the House. Although I want the GOP to win despite Trump, I'm pessimistic. I think (especially after Charlottesville and the next Trump Charlottesville-esque mess whatever that will be) that voting against Trump/the GOP will become a big social value for a lot of young, marginal voters in 2018. If these Democratic-leaning, presidential year voters show up to protest Trump in the midterms, we Republicans will face our worst turnout nightmare and we will lose the House.

If that happens, post-election Donald Trump will be alone, despised by his own party, a failure rebuked by the nation, and politically neutered even more than he is today. He'll channel-surf between reports of various D's and R's setting up to run against him for president in 2020. At that point I think President Trump will pine for the Tower. A resignation is far from impossible, if for no other reason than nothing is impossible with Trump. There is also the Mueller factor and whatever legal jeopardy his family could face. All unknown, but all potentially huge problems for him.

So, if anything, the timetable of trouble could speed up into a deal to leave office in 2018. But I think he'll want to fight out the midterms. If they go badly, I think he cuts his losses.

But this is all a wild guess and I've been wrong before.

Read the original:
Why one big-time Republican consultant thinks Trump won't be president by 2019 - CNN

A Republican state lawmaker in Idaho refused to back away Monday from claims that the deadly violence following a white nationalist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, earlier this month might have been staged with the help of former President Barack Obama.

RepresentativeBryan Zollinger shared an article last week that suggested the Unite the Right marchwas orchestrated by Obama along with other leading Democrats, such as Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe, Charlottesville Mayor Michael Signer and billionaire donor George Soros.

Related: Donald Trump's Charlottesville response will continue to haunt him, says Watergate veteran

Keep up with this story and more by subscribing now

After his sharing of the article from a conservative site calledAmerican Thinker began to receive significant backlash on his Facebook page, Zollinger wrote that he thought the unsubstantiated piece was interesting and thought provoking and that some of the theories were plausible.

Despite the criticism from across Idaho and the country, Zollinger saidhe was not backing away from his belief that there was at least a kernel of truth in the article.

At first, I felt genuinely bad that maybe I had offended somebody, he said in an interview Monday with Idahos Post Register. Since then, the amazing amount of hate and the despicable things that have been said about myself, my wife, my kids, Ive doubled down.

American Thinker regularly posts articles with misleading claims. Its piece on Charlottesville questions whether the rallywas a set up to smear President Donald Trump as a racist.

What if Signer and McAuliffe, in conjunction with Antifa and other Soros-funded groups like Black Lives Matter, planned and orchestrated what happened in Charlottesville and meant for events to unfold roughly as they did? the article read.

White nationalist demonstrators hold shields as they clash with a group of counterprotesters in Charlottesville, Virginia, on August 12. Joshua Roberts/Reuters

Zollinger gave no suggestion of wanting to back away from sharing such unfounded speculation, even raising the possibility of direct involvement by Trumps predecessor.

[Obama] was a community organizer before he was the president of the United States, Zollinger said. Istill do think its plausible.

In Charlottesville, one woman died when a car, reportedlydriven by an individual with links to white supremacists, drove through a crowd of counterprotesters. In the aftermath, Trump received strong criticism, even from members of his own party, for blaming both sides for the violence. The president also said that there were very fine people on both sides, referring to the white nationalists and counterprotesters.

Original post:
Idaho Republican Insists It's 'Plausible' Barack Obama Staged Charlottesville White Nationalist Rally Violence - Newsweek

Still, the back-and-forth has been dramatic.

In a series of tweets this month, Mr. Trump criticized Mr. McConnell publicly, and berated him in a phone call that quickly devolved into a profane shouting match.

During the call, which Mr. Trump initiated on Aug. 9 from his New Jersey golf club, the president accused Mr. McConnell of bungling the health care issue. He was even more animated about what he intimated was the Senate leaders refusal to protect him from investigations of Russian interference in the 2016 election, according to Republicans briefed on the conversation.

Mr. McConnell has fumed over Mr. Trumps regular threats against fellow Republicans and criticism of Senate rules, and questioned Mr. Trumps understanding of the presidency in a public speech. Mr. McConnell has made sharper comments in private, describing Mr. Trump as entirely unwilling to learn the basics of governing.

In offhand remarks, Mr. McConnell has expressed a sense of bewilderment about where Mr. Trumps presidency may be headed, and has mused about whether Mr. Trump will be in a position to lead the Republican Party into next years elections and beyond, according to people who have spoken to him directly.

While maintaining a pose of public reserve, Mr. McConnell expressed horror to advisers last week after Mr. Trumps comments equating white supremacists in Charlottesville, Va., with protesters who rallied against them. Mr. Trumps most explosive remarks came at a news conference in Manhattan, where he stood beside Ms. Chao, the transportation secretary. (Ms. Chao, deflecting a question about the tensions between her husband and the president she serves, told reporters, I stand by my man both of them.)

Mr. McConnell signaled to business leaders that he was deeply uncomfortable with Mr. Trumps comments: Several who resigned advisory roles in the Trump administration contacted Mr. McConnells office after the fact, and were told that Mr. McConnell fully understood their choices, three people briefed on the conversations said.

Mr. Trump has also continued to badger and threaten Mr. McConnells Senate colleagues, including Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona, whose Republican primary challenger was praised by Mr. Trump last week.

Great to see that Dr. Kelli Ward is running against Flake Jeff Flake, who is WEAK on borders, crime and a non-factor in Senate, he tweeted last week. Hes toxic!

At a campaign rally in Phoenix on Tuesday, Mr. Trump alluded to Mr. Flake unfavorably, referring to him as weak on borders and weak on crime without mentioning him by name. He referred to Mr. McConnell only in passing, calling on him to abolish the Senate filibuster.

Senior Republican officials said before the rally that they would stand up for Mr. Flake against any attacks. A Republican super PAC aligned with Mr. McConnell released a web ad on Tuesday assailing Ms. Ward as a fringe-dwelling conspiracy theorist.

When it comes to the Senate, theres an Article 5 understanding: An attack against one is an attack against all, said Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, who has found himself in Mr. Trumps sights many times, invoking the NATO alliances mutual defense doctrine.

The fury among Senate Republicans toward Mr. Trump has been building since last month, even before he lashed out at Mr. McConnell. Some of them blame the president for not being able to rally the party around any version of legislation to repeal the Affordable Care Act, accusing him of not knowing even the basics about the policy. Senate Republicans also say strong-arm tactics from the White House backfired, making it harder to cobble together votes and have left bad feelings in the caucus.

When Mr. Trump addressed a Boy Scouts jamboree last month in West Virginia, White House aides told Senator Shelley Moore Capito, a Republican from the state whose support was in doubt, that she could only accompany him on Air Force One if she committed to voting for the health care bill. She declined the invitation, noting that she could not commit to voting for a measure she had not seen, according to a Republican briefed on the conversation.

Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska told colleagues that when Mr. Trumps interior secretary threatened to pull back federal funding for her state, she felt boxed in and unable to vote for the health care bill.

In a show of solidarity, albeit one planned well before Mr. Trump took aim at Mr. Flake, Mr. McConnell will host a $1,000-per-person dinner on Friday in Kentucky for the Arizona senator, as well as for Senator Dean Heller of Nevada, who is also facing a Trump-inspired primary race next year, and Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska. Mr. Flake is expected to attend the event.

Former Senator Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, a Republican who is close to Mr. McConnell, said frustration with Mr. Trump was boiling over in the chamber. Mr. Gregg blamed the president for undermining congressional leaders, and said the House and Senate would have to govern on their own if Mr. Trump cant participate constructively.

Failure to do things like keeping the government open and passing a tax bill is the functional equivalent of playing Russian roulette with all the chambers loaded, Mr. Gregg said.

Others in the party divide blame between Mr. Trump and Mr. McConnell. Al Hoffman, a former finance chairman of the Republican National Committee who has been supportive of Mr. McConnell, said Mr. McConnell was culpable because he has failed to deliver legislative victories. Ultimately, its been Mitchs responsibility, and I dont think hes done much, Mr. Hoffman said.

But Mr. Hoffman predicted that Mr. McConnell would likely outlast the president.

I think hes going to blow up, self-implode, Mr. Hoffman said of Mr. Trump. I wouldnt be surprised if McConnell pulls back his support of Trump and tries to go it alone.

An all-out clash between Mr. Trump and Mr. McConnell would play out between men whose strengths and weaknesses are very different. Mr. Trump is a political amateur, still unschooled in the ways of Washington, but he maintains a viselike grip on the affections of the Republican base. Mr. McConnell is a soft-spoken career politician, with virtuoso mastery of political fund-raising and tactics, but he had no mass following to speak of.

Mr. McConnell, while baffled at Mr. Trumps penchant for internecine attacks, is a ruthless pragmatist and has given no overt indication that he plans to seek more drastic conflict. Despite his private battles with Mr. Trump, Mr. McConnell has sent reassuring signals with his public conduct: On Monday, he appeared in Louisville, Ky., with Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, for a discussion of tax policy.

Mr. McConnells Senate colleagues, however, have grown bolder. The combination of the presidents frontal attacks on Senate Republicans and his claim that there were fine people marching with white supremacists in Charlottesville has emboldened lawmakers to criticize Mr. Trump in withering terms.

Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee rebuked Mr. Trump last week for failing to demonstrate the stability nor some of the competence required of presidents. On Monday, Senator Susan Collins of Maine said in a television interview that she was uncertain Mr. Trump would be the Republican presidential nominee in 2020.

There are few recent precedents for the rift. The last time a president turned on a legislative leader of his own party was in 2002, when allies of George W. Bush helped force Trent Lott to step down as Senate minority leader after racially charged remarks at a birthday party for Senator Strom Thurmond, Republican of South Carolina.

For the moment, Mr. McConnell appears to be far more secure in his position, and perhaps immune to coercion from the White House. Republicans are unlikely to lose control of the Senate in 2018, and Mr. Trump has no allies in the Senate who have shown an appetite for combat with Mr. McConnell.

Still, some allies of Mr. Trump on the right including Stephen K. Bannon, who stepped down last week as Mr. Trumps chief strategist welcome more direct conflict with Mr. McConnell and congressional Republicans.

Roger J. Stone Jr., a Republican strategist who has advised Mr. Trump for decades, said the president needed to take a scalp in order to force cooperation from Republican elites who have resisted his agenda. Mr. Stone urged Mr. Trump to make an example of one or more Republicans, like Mr. Flake, who have refused to give full support to his administration.

The president should start bumping off incumbent Republican members of Congress in primaries, Mr. Stone said. If he did that, Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan would wet their pants and the rest of the Republicans would get in line.

But Mr. McConnells allies warn that the president should be wary of doing anything that could jeopardize the Senate Republican majority.

The quickest way for him to get impeached is for Trump to knock off Jeff Flake and Dean Heller and be faced with a Democrat-led Senate, said Billy Piper, a lobbyist and former McConnell chief of staff.

Get politics and Washington news updates via Facebook, Twitter and the Morning Briefing newsletter.

A version of this article appears in print on August 23, 2017, on Page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: Presidents Feud With McConnell Becomes Hostile.

Read the original here:
McConnell, in Private, Doubts if Trump Can Save Presidency - New York Times

Advocates for repealing Nevadas commerce tax have filed a revised petition to reflect the financial impact outlined in a Legislative Counsel Bureau analysis.

CARSON CITY Advocates for repealing Nevadas commerce tax have filed a revised petition to reflect the financial impact outlined in a Legislative Counsel Bureau analysis.

Nevada Controller Ron Knecht and former Las Vegas City Councilman Bob Beers, both Republicans, filed the new petition with the Secretary of States office on Friday. They want voters to overturn the tax passed by the Nevada Legislature in 2015. The tax applies to businesses with annual gross revenues that exceed $4 million.

The fiscal note estimated the financial impact of a repeal at about $161.3 million in Fiscal Year 2019 and $97 million annually in fiscal 2020 and beyond.

Knecht said Tuesday that is the only change in the new petition.

If petitioners can collect 112,544 signatures from registered Nevada voters, a referendum asking to repeal the tax will be on the ballot in the 2018 general election. The deadline to get the signatures is June 19, 2018.

Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval spearheaded passage of the commerce tax as part of a push to better fund and reform public education in Nevada.

Contact Sean Whaley at swhaley@reviewjournal.com or 775-461-3820. Follow @seanw801 on Twitter.

See the original post:
Republican duo revises petition to repeal Nevada commerce tax - Las Vegas Review-Journal

In yesterdays column from Al Hunt in Bloomberg, the veteran political commentator noted that what Democrats needed was not new policies, but a new message. And former Democratic National Committee Chair Howard Dean has an idea on how to craft this: label every person who votes Republican a racist. Yep, thats rightif you vote GOP in 2018, youre a racist because nothing says success like building upon Hillary Clintons deplorable strategy. Dean made these remarks on Joy Reids show on MSNBC on Saturday, saying I think this may be the moment for Trump last weekend. Today, in the 2018 elections, if you vote for a Republican, you're supporting Donald Trump. This has now become a referendum. If you want to vote for a racist in the White House, then you better vote for Republicans. But if you want to vote for Democrats and really have change, that's where I think America is going."

Yeah, Howard, just because theres a D next to your name doesnt mean crap to voters. You have to tell them what you stand for and Hillary Clinton didnt stand for anything except say how awful Donald Trump is for engaging in locker room talk. Yet, the former is what Hunt was referring to, though I have my doubts itll be effective concerning the Lefts embrace of the authoritarian ethos of political correctness and identity politics.

The reason Democrats think this is simple. From polling, Democrats do run the table of a variety of economic issues such as health care and the minimum wage, but the delivery of the message is chopped up. Former Rep. Harold Ford, Jr., whos a fixture on MSNBCs Morning Joe, noted how the Democrats new agenda, the Better Deal, falls short, namely because it places pro-jobs, pro-economic growth, and being pro-consumer as things that are in conflict with one another. Hunt wrote Democrats have to just reconnect with voters, probably because they usually run the table on economic issues, such as health care and the minimum wage. Yet, a good way to tune out is when someone says youre a Nazi or a racist for not voting for my side.

At the same time, Hunt notes the importance of the state-level races, along with the idiocy of having left wing litmus tests for candidates:

Democratic leaders also hope the program will fend off the party's left wing and its fondness for litmus tests like the demand that all Democratic candidates embrace a single-payer health care plan. That would be a gift to Republican candidates, who are suffering from their party's failure and duplicity on health care and are eager to change the terms of public debate.

Similarly, former Democratic chairman Howard Dean wants to deny party support to any candidate who's not sufficiently pro-abortion. Others want uniformity on transgender soldiers, higher corporate tax rates, lower defense spending and impeaching Trump. It's a potential political death spiral of policy proposals that won't play well in closely fought battlegrounds that Democrats need to win.

[...]

Being outsmarted by Republicans the past 10 years has had dire consequences for Democrats. Fewer ideas are percolating up from the states. Republican redistricting schemes have cost at least a dozen House seats and hundreds in state legislatures.

State governments also often serve as farm clubs to develop candidates for higher office and national prominence. Before they start quarreling about policy papers, Democrats need to restock their Triple-A teams.

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Howard Dean: If You Vote Republican in 2018, You're A Racist - Townhall