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The past couple of weeks have seen endless pundits predicting gloom and doom for the Democrats next year: Bidens approval rating is down. The party of the incumbent president always loses ground in midterm elections. Republicans control most state legislatures, so the decennial gerrymandering of Congressional districts will play out in Republicans favor. Inflation is up, and thats a pocketbook issue that will matter to voters. Finally, look at the results in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races.

Woe is Democrats!

Someone should offer a (slightly) contrary view.

Ive got some good news for you: Im just the guy to do it.

Three things are actually likely to be working in the Democrats favor by the time of next years midterm elections.

First, the pandemic is likely to be essentially under control in the United States by November 2022. One of the keys to controlling the pandemic is convincing (or coercing) the vaccine-hesitant to get the COVID-19 vaccine. Until the FDA approved approved, not approved through an emergency use authorization the COVID-19 vaccines, the government was hesitant to compel vaccinations. Once the FDA approved the vaccines, the government moved fairly rapidly to require government contractors and large employers to have their employees vaccinated. Although there are legal objections to those vaccination programs, theyre likely to have an impact. And those programs give other private employers the cover they need to require their employees to get vaccinated.

Add to that the availability of vaccines for children over 5 and likely under 5 by next spring and COVID-19 may be essentially under control in the United States by November 2022.

Nothing is certain, of course. Ive restricted my prediction to COVID-19 in the United States; the virus will probably still be running rampant overseas. And theres always the chance that a new, vaccine-resistant variant will emerge, putting public health, and the Democrats, back to square one. But, barring that public health disaster, the United States could almost be back to normal next year, and Democrats will benefit from that.

I suspect that Bidens approval rating will move inversely to infection rates. By November 2022, infection rates will decrease, and Bidens approval rating will improve, along with the Democrats chances.

Second, the economy is looking pretty good right now, and thats likely to continue for another 12 months. Were emerging from the virus; thats likely to continue. Businesses that benefit from the re-opening trade will reap the rewards. Unemployment is currently low and likely to move lower. Wages are increasing.

For the most part, the economy is doing well, and its likely to continue doing well for another year. Democrats will benefit.

Finally, everyone seems to be ignoring the possibility that Trump will be indicted between now and November 2022. New grand juries have been convened in New York and Georgia to investigate possible financial and electoral misconduct, respectively. Isnt the smart money betting that at least one of those two investigations will lead to an indictment?

If an indictment is handed down, any case against Trump is likely to be pending trial in November 2022. This puts Republicans in an awful bind: Trump will continue to insist that candidates pledge loyalty to him, insisting that any indictment is a Democrat-inspired witch hunt. Candidates will want to distance themselves from Trump, but Trump wont permit it. Whats a candidate to do?

Thats a tricky situation for all Republican candidates, and it cant help a political party to have its leading figure at risk of going to prison.

My crystal ball is of course cloudy. None of these events may come to pass. Even if they do, the many advantages that Republicans have in the midterm elections may outweigh the advantages accruing to the Democrats. But fate is funny, and I suspect that Democrats are not in as much trouble as the conventional wisdom suggests.

(Allow me to end on a point of personal privilege: Happy birthday to me! Today marks the eleventh anniversary of this column at Above the Law. Eleven years! Heaven help me, but thanks for reading.)

MarkHerrmannspent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and is now deputy general counsel at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeons Guide to Practicing LawandDrug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy(affiliate links). You can reach him by email atinhouse@abovethelaw.com.

Originally posted here:
Why The Expectation Of A Republican Landslide In November 2022 May Be Overstated - Above the Law

A slate of conspiracy theorists and Republican state officials headlined a rally against COVID-19 mask and vaccine mandates Monday inside the state capitol.

The rally was held on the same day the legislature began its special session on redistricting. Their rhetoric included misleading or false claims about the vaccines and the efficacy of masks, as well as repeated comparisons of the present-day United States to the political climate in Germany before the Nazis took control.

Former ophthalmologist and aggressive anti-vaxxer Jim Meehan was among the events headline speakers. He touted the efficacy of ivermectin in preventing and treating COVID-19, which there is insufficient evidence for, and decried masks as useless, though they have been proven to slow the spread of the disease.

"Listen, ladies and gentlemen, we've got to rise against this medical tyranny. It's gone on too long," Meehan told the crowd on the second floor of the rotunda.

Other speakers framed the fight against vaccine and mask requirements as a Christian battle between good and evil, and the crowd was repeatedly urged to fight mandates. Six teachers fired from Oklahoma City Public Schools for not following a mask requirement made an appearance, as did Oklahoma Secretary of Education Ryan Walters, who is running for state superintendent.

"I'm a teacher, I'm the secretary of education, more importantly than any of that, I'm a parent. Love seeing all the kids here today. By the way, you know what? Your mom and dad are here today because they care about you and your future," Walters said.

Several Republican state lawmakers also spoke, including Broken Arrow Sen. Nathan Dahm, Yukon Sen. Jake Merrick, McCurtain Sen. Warren Hamilton, Tulsa Sen. Joe Newhouse and Shawnee Sen. Shane Jett.

"The federal government, in collusion with corporations and an international cabal, want to control the American people. You do not have to fear a free people who are armed to the teeth if you reflect their will," Jett said.

Attorney General John OConnor was on the schedule but was not seen during a broadcast carried on The Highwire, a website prominent anti-vaxxer Del Matthew Bigtree has used to spread COVID conspiracy theories and urge people not to follow health professionals' advice.

Rallygoers were encouraged to go meet with their state lawmakers afterward.

Excerpt from:
Republican state officials and conspiracy theorists share the stage at capitol rally against COVID vaccine and mask mandates - Public Radio Tulsa

CARMEL Assemblyman Kevin Byrne (R, C Mahopac) has announced thathe will not run for another term in Albany, but will instead seek to become the next Putnam County executive.

Current Putnam County Executive MaryEllen Odell is not eligible to run again in 2022, due to term limits. Byrne announced his campaign intentions in a letter sent to Republican and Conservative county committee members.

Byrne, recognized as one of the most conservativemembers of the state legislature, has received high marks from both the State Republican and Conservative Committees.

His Assembly district includes the Putnam County towns of Patterson, Southeast, Mahopac, and Putnam Valley.

Ourcountyneeds leaders who are unafraid to stand up andmake governmentwork better for taxpayers,his letter said. As county executive, Ill work to make Putnam our states most welcoming county for new business and job creation; to lift property-tax burdens and innovate to make services more efficient and cost-effective.

See the article here:
Conservative Republican to run for county executive - Mid Hudson News Website

He was able to impose his will on legislation, said Joe Vitale, a Democratic state senator. He was a force of nature. So it will be a loss for those of us who respect him and support him.

Mr. Sweeney was closely allied with George E. Norcross, an insurance executive and powerful power broker whose stranglehold on southern New Jersey politics lead many to see him as a shadow governor. The two remained close during both Mr. Murphys administration and former Gov. Chris Christies eight years. Without Mr. Sweeney at the helm of the Senate, and with other Democratic losses in the southern part of the state, Mr. Norcross may no longer possess the ironclad control to shape state policy, though he still counts numerous legislators as allies.

In an interview, Mr. Norcross described Mr. Sweeney as the Lyndon Johnson of the State Legislature who brought order to the chaos. He said the sudden swelling of Republican turnout and independents anger happened with such warp speed, that there was nothing that could have been anticipated or done, because its not like we didnt have the money available to do it.

He added that the Democratic Party will need to change, both in the state and around the country, to win back voters.

The Democratic Party is going to have to, and candidates for office are going to have to, redefine themselves as fiscally responsible legislators and ones that are going to spend government money wisely and not recklessly as is portrayed, Mr. Norcross said. They cant be defined as wanting to defund police or socialist.

Mr. Sweeneys loss sets up a wide open race for his successor. Nicholas Scutari, a Democratic state senator from northern New Jersey, is seen as a possible candidate to replace Mr. Sweeney in the senate leadership. Troy Singleton, a Democratic state senator from southern New Jersey, also has been mentioned as a possible replacement, among many other candidates.

Ed Dobzanski, 56, a union truck driver from Gibbstown, N.J., said he voted for Mr. Sweeney because of the Senate presidents long support for trade unions, but he thought his rivals victory reflects a public desire for change.

I think this is a backlash of the same people being in the same positions a long time, he said. People just wanted change, they are tired of career politicians.

Jon Hurdle contributed reporting from West Deptford Township, N.J.

More:
Republican Truck Driver Beats Sweeney in N.J. Election - The New York Times

Just outside of Shawano, a billboard advertises the COVID-19 vaccine.

"I got the vaccine so I can protect myself and all the people I care about," it reads, alongside a photo of state Assembly Rep. Gary Tauchen, of Hartland.

Tauchen is a Republican, and his district is a conservative area. And like other rural parts of the state, uptake of the vaccine has been slow. Only 42 percent of Shawano County residents are fully vaccinated, according to state data, making it the county with the fifth-lowest vaccination rate in Wisconsin.

Tauchen, who is part of a coalition of leaders called the Community Health Action Team that is behind the new public messaging campaign, wants to see that change.

"I'm a farm boy by trade," Tauchen said. "We don't vaccinate part of our herd, we vaccinate the whole herd. And I think it's important to get as many people vaccinated as you can."

Tauchen is one of a relatively small number of elected Republican leaders in Wisconsin who've been willing to be a part of campaigns to publicly encourage vaccinations. GOP leaders like U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson have spent months promoting false or misleading information about the vaccine. In August, state Senate Majority Leader Chris Kapenga, R-Delafield, encouraged hospital workers to defy their employers' vaccine mandates.

Public health leaders say the politicization of the vaccine campaign has had deadly results.

Consistently for the last year Republicans have been more likely than Democrats or independents to tell opinion surveys they are skeptical of the vaccine. A study published in April found that unlike other groups, self-identified Republicans became more skeptical of the vaccine over time.

By October, the death rate from COVID-19 in rural areas was double what it was in urban regions of the Unites States, according to an analysis from the University of Iowa College of Public Health. Relatively low vaccination rates in rural areas were at least part of the explanation, according to the report. In Wisconsin, the latest data show that in September unvaccinated people were five times more likely than fully vaccinated people to be infected with COVID-19, nine times more likely to be hospitalized and 19 times more likely to die.

That's why the Community Health Action Team, which is organized by the health system ThedaCare, launched the new campaign using grant money from the state Department of Health Services. In addition to the billboards, it includes a series of radio ads in which a Shawano parent and a school board member urge vaccinations as a way to keep schools open; and a doctor describes overloaded conditions at the local hospital.

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"So, when will this pandemic end?" the ads say. "It'll end when those who are able to get vaccinated, are vaccinated."

Public health campaigns promoting the COVID-19 vaccine have been going on for months. DHS paid for billboard campaigns across the state that featured local health providers doctors and nurses who might be recognizable, trusted sources of information to people in their communities. Like most of the country, Wisconsin saw a spike in vaccinations when they became widely available in the spring, followed by a precipitous decline in June. In early November, the state was averaging about 3,600 new vaccinations per day.

Julie Chikowski, vice president of ThedaCare Medical Center-Shawano,acknowledged persuasion happens slowly, and any gains from the new campaign in the Shawano area are likely to be incremental. But she said the group also made efforts to tailor their messages to that specific community.

"We tried to make it more about keeping the schools open, keeping the businesses open," Chikowski said. "We're not saying, 'You need to go get a vaccination,' because that's a huge turn-off for the community ... (People) want to understand: What's in it for Shawano?"

Chikowski said shehopes those messages and the messengers they've chosen can break through the politicized nature of the vaccine debate, at least for some people.

"The goal is to try to open minds, get the politics out of the vaccination process, and have people really look at the science," she said.

Tauchen, who was first elected in 2006, announced in January he would not seek reelection next year. He acknowledged his decision to retire also gives him political freedom to speak in favor of the vaccine without worrying about a backlash from vaccine-skeptical members of the Republican base.

"This is my last term, so I'm not really worried about getting elected again," he said. "I think it's the right thing to do."

Chikowski said she knows a lot of people are tired of thinking about the pandemic. But with cases and hospitalizations once again rising in Wisconsin, that's not a luxury health officials have.

"Is there fatigue? Absolutely, there's fatigue," she said. "But people are still dying, so we don't get to be tired. We get to try to find a new way to have a new message that somehow reaches people that says: Get a vaccination, please."

Originally posted here:
Republican lawmaker's pro-vaccine messages are part of an effort to 'get the politics out of the vaccination process' - Wisconsin Public Radio News