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Further, the division he caused with his attacks on fellow Republicans in the state including the governor and secretary of state, whom he accused as not supporting his lie helped depress turnout. That Democratic control of the Senate meant that his new arch-rival, Senator Mitch McConnell, would have less power was something Trump almost seemed to relish.

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Indeed, ask any Republican why the party lost those races and the first answer you will hear Trump. And evidence is mounting that Trump might again be the reason why Republicans fail to win back Senate control in 2022.

The math on Senate control is simple. The 100 member chamber is evenly divided among the parties. Democrats only control the Senate now because Vice President Kamala Harris can cast a tie-breaking vote.

But if Republicans flip just one seat held by a Democrat, then they will control the Senate, and with that, control whether Bidens nominees get confirmed, whether war can be declared, all the way down to whether bills to name post offices get a vote.

Here is the thing: Some of the most promising recruits Republicans eyed for key Senate races are passing. In each case, Trump was a complicating factor.

The latest came on Thursday as Arizona Governor Doug Ducey passed on running for the Senate against Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly. Ducey has been a particular target of Trump because, like Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, Trump felt Ducey didnt do enough to try to overturn Bidens slim, but solid, win in his state.

Ducey didnt mention Trump in a statement on why he didnt run, but the implication was clear. As is the fact that Trump has ties to Republicans already running in the contest. Ducey may not have wanted to deal with Trump endorsing his primary opponent. Just look at the open Senate seat in North Carolina. Republicans got their top recruit in the race, a former governor, only for Trump to back his opponent and seriously complicate the race.

Ducey is the fourth Republican governor to pass on running against a Democratic incumbent, despite Republicans appearing to have poll numbers on their side this year.

Others who passed on Senate runs include Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, and Vermonts Phil Scott, who turned down the opportunity to compete for the open seat in his state.

Hogan met Trumps wrath as the two fought publicly on how to respond to the early days of the pandemic. As for Sununu, who opted to run for reelection instead, Trumps former campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, claimed Trump told him to find someone to defeat Sununu in a primary.

This is not to suggest that these four Republican governors would have won. It would have been especially hard for a Republican to win in Vermont and Maryland, no matter how good of a Republican year.

Still, only one of them would have had to win for Republicans to have a very good chance at winning back Senate control. Republicans have other paths to victory, including by defeating Democratic incumbents in Georgia, Nevada, and Colorado, but the paths are becoming fewer for one familiar reason.

James Pindell can be reached at james.pindell@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @jamespindell and on Instagram @jameswpindell.

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Trump may have just cost the GOP Senate control (again) - The Boston Globe

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Former President Donald Trump has officially endorsed a plan, created by a man who has self-identified with the Oath Keeper militia, that aims to have Trump supporters consolidate control of the Republican Party.

The plan, known as the precinct strategy, has been repeatedly promoted on Steve Bannons popular podcast. As ProPublica detailed last year, it has already inspired thousands of people to fill positions at the lowest rung of the party ladder. Though these positions are low-profile and often vacant, they hold critical powers: They help elect higher-ranking party officers, influence which candidates appear on the ballot, turn out voters on Election Day and even staff the polling precincts where people vote and the election boards that certify the results.

Just heard about an incredible effort underway that will strengthen the Republican Party, Trump said Sunday in a statement emailed to his supporters. If members of our Great movement start getting involved (that means YOU becoming a precinct committeeman for your voting precinct), we can take back our great Country from the ground up.

Trumps email named Dan Schultz, an Arizona lawyer and local party official who first developed the precinct strategy more than a decade ago. Schultz spent years trying to promote his plan and recruit precinct officers. In 2014, he posted a callout to an internal forum for the Oath Keepers militia group, according to hacked records obtained by ProPublica.

Why dont you all join me and the other Oath Keepers who are inside the Party already, Schultz wrote under a screen name. If we conservatives were to do that, wed OWN the Party.

Federal prosecutors in January charged the leader of the Oath Keepers and 10 of its other members with seditious conspiracy in last years attack on the U.S. Capitol. One of them pleaded guilty, as have several members of the group in related cases who are cooperating with the investigation. The groups leader, Stewart Rhodes, pleaded not guilty.

There is no indication that Schultz had any involvement in the Capitol riot.

Schultz told ProPublica he never became a formal member of the Oath Keepers organization. I have taken oaths to support and defend the Constitution as a West Point cadet, as a commissioned U.S. Army officer and as a practicing attorney, Schultz said in a text message. Those oaths do not have expiration dates, by my way of thinking, and I have kept my oaths. In that sense, I am an oath keeper.

According to experts on extremist groups, the Oath Keepers recruit military and law enforcement veterans using the idea that their oath to defend the Constitution never expired. The group then urges people to resist what they say are impending orders to take away Americans guns or create concentration camps.

I dont ever want to be pulling the trigger on an AR-15 in my neighborhood, Schultz said in a 2015 conference call with fellow organizers, referring to the semi-automatic rifle. Oath Keepers, I love them for instilling the oath. But what they need to do also, I think, is spread the message that hey, we can do stuff politically so we never get to the cartridge box.

In more recent interviews on right-wing podcasts and internet talk shows, Schultz has repeatedly described his precinct strategy as a last alternative to violence.

Its not going to be peaceful the next go-round, perhaps, Schultz said in a June interview with the pro-Trump personality David Clements. But it ought to be, and the way to ensure that it will be is weve got to get enough of these good decent Americans to take over one of the two major political parties.

It was not clear whether Trump or his aides were aware that Schultz has self-identified with the Oath Keepers. Trumps spokesperson, Liz Harrington, did not respond to requests for comment.

Schultz has spent months trying to get his idea in front of Trump. Steve Stern, a fellow movement organizer, told ProPublica that he met a former Trump administration official for lunch at Mar-a-Lago, the ex-presidents private club in Palm Beach, in December. While there, Stern said, he got a chance to briefly mention the project to Trump.

Then, last month, Schultz and Stern landed an interview on a talk show hosted by Mike Lindell, the MyPillow CEO who promotes conspiracy theories about the 2020 election. Lindell said he would discuss the plan with Trump personally. Schultz and Stern followed up with a conference call with Harrington and Bannon, according to Stern. Harrington previously worked at Bannons War Room website.

I know the presidents very jacked up about it, Bannon said on his podcast, speaking with Schultz after Trump released the endorsement. Help MAGA, help the America First movement, right? Help the deplorables, help President Trump, help yourself, your country, community, your kids, grandkids, all of it. Put your shoulder to the wheel.

Bannon, who led Trumps 2016 campaign, originally lifted the precinct strategy to prominence in a podcast interview with Schultz last year. After the episode aired, thousands of people answered Bannons call to become precinct officers in pivotal swing states, according to data compiled by ProPublica from county records and interviews with local party officials.

As of last August, GOP leaders in 41 counties reported an unusual increase in sign-ups since Bannons first interview with Schultz, adding a total of more than 8,500 new precinct officers. The trend appears to have continued since then. New precinct officers started using their powers to remove or censure Republican leaders who contradicted Trumps election lies and to recruit people who believe the election was stolen into positions as poll watchers and poll workers.

Her Story Brought Down Alaskas Attorney General. A Year Later, She Feels Let Down.

Bannon received a last-minute pardon from Trump after the former adviser was charged with financial fraud. He has pleaded not guilty to contempt of Congress for defying a subpoena from the committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack. Bannons spokesperson did not respond to requests for comment.

In addition to Bannon and Lindell, the precinct strategy has won support from pro-Trump figures such as former national security adviser Michael Flynn, who urged Trump to impose martial law, and lawyers Sidney Powell and Lin Wood, who led some of the lawsuits seeking to overturn the election results. Right-wing groups such as Turning Point Action, which organized buses to transport rallygoers on Jan. 6, also joined the effort to recruit precinct officers.

While Stern said hes thrilled about Trumps written statement endorsing the precinct strategy, he said he hopes to hear it from Trumps own lips at an upcoming rally. Stern said he plans to be there with tables to sign more people up.

Jeff Kao and Mollie Simon contributed reporting.

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Trump Just Endorsed an Oath Keeper's Plan to Seize Control of the Republican Party - ProPublica

Republicans have spent much of the last year trying to recruit competitive contenders for 2022 U.S. Senate races, but without much luck. There was, however, one more dream candidate the party hoped to convince: Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey.

As Republican leaders saw it, the two-term governor would be the most competitive candidate to take on Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in the fall, and so they gave Ducey the hard sell. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell helped lead the lobbying effort, though even George W. Bush got involved, as the party desperately hoped to persuade the Arizonan.

It didnt work. The Arizona Republic reported this morning:

Arizona Republican Gov. Doug Ducey will not run for the U.S. Senate this year, he told donors in a letter obtained by The Arizona Republic, finally putting to rest whether he held aspirations for elected office this cycle. Duceys announcement to some of his closest financial allies ends the long-running effort by national and local Republican leaders and deep-pocketed donors to recruit him for the race against Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., whose reelection could decide which party controls the evenly divided chamber.

If the developments sound familiar, its not your imagination. A month ago, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan also announced he was rebuffing his partys overtures and would not launch a Republican Senate campaign. Before that, GOP leaders practically begged Gov. Chris Sununu to run in New Hampshire, and he also said no. Republicans also asked Gov. Phil Scott to run in Vermont, and he gave the same answer.

Now that Ducey has come to the same conclusion, the result is a rough tally for the National Republican Senatorial Committee: Four sitting governors were asked to run, and all four declined.

Remember, theres ample evidence to suggest this will be a very good year for GOP candidates up and down the ballot, so its not as if these governors rejected party overtures because they faced electoral headwinds.

But as we recently discussed, theres a problem Republicans have struggled to overcome: McConnell and his colleagues want to recruit the best possible candidates to run for Senate seats, but theyve also created a chamber that the best possible candidates dont want to be a part of. Sununu, in particular, very nearly launched a Senate campaign, right up until he talked to GOP senators about their governing plans at which point the New Hampshire governor quickly moved in the opposite direction.

It very likely doesn't help that the party's effective leader is a failed former president, from whom none of these governors want to take orders.

The result of these failed recruiting attempts will likely be a Republican Party stuck with several nominees in competitive races who are both far from the American mainstream and difficult to take seriously.

That doesnt necessarily mean theyll lose. It probably wouldnt be appropriate to name names, but the Senate already has some Republican members who are far from the American mainstream and difficult to take seriously, but they got elected anyway.

But GOP leaders hoped to improve the partys odds by recruiting governors whod be well positioned to succeed. That initiative hasnt worked.

Steve Benen is a producer for "The Rachel Maddow Show," the editor of MaddowBlog and an MSNBC political contributor. He's also the bestselling author of "The Impostors: How Republicans Quit Governing and Seized American Politics."

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Yet another GOP governor rejects Senate Republican overtures - MSNBC

He defended the Republican National Committee this month after it passed a resolution to censure Ms. Cheney and the other Republican member of the Jan. 6 committee, Representative Adam Kinzinger of Illinois; the resolution said they were involved in the persecution of ordinary citizens engaged in legitimate political discourse. In contrast, Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, castigated the party.

In private talks to donors, Mr. McCarthy often does not mention Mr. Trump as he makes his aggressive pitch about the coming red wave and what Republicans would do should they reclaim the majority.

But he is often asked whether Mr. Trump intends to run for president.

Mr. McCarthy has told donors that Mr. Trump has not yet made up his mind and that he has advised the former president to see whether President Biden runs for re-election. Mr. McCarthy also often mentions former House members who he says could make for serious presidential contenders, including Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina and Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida.

On Capitol Hill, Mr. McCarthys basic problem comes down to math. Leadership positions in the House can be secured with a majority vote from the members of each party. But the speaker is a constitutional official elected by the whole House and therefore must win a majority at least 218 votes.

In 2015, after the most conservative House members drove the speaker, John A. Boehner, into retirement, Mr. McCarthy, then the No. 2 Republican, was the heir apparent and he blew it. His biggest public offense was a television appearance in which he blurted out that the House had created a special committee to investigate the attack on a U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya, expressly to diminish Hillary Clintons approval ratings.

I said multiple times at the time, we need a speaker who can speak, recalled former Representative Jason Chaffetz, who challenged Mr. McCarthy for the speakership after the gaffe.

Ultimately, Republicans recruited Paul D. Ryan, the Ways and Means Committee chairman and former vice-presidential nominee, for the job.

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Courting G.O.P.s Mainstream and Extreme, McCarthy Plots Rise to Speaker - The New York Times

House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy expects to be a happy chappy in November unless Donald Trump pushes him aside. Photo: Shutterstock

Whatever is bad for the current Democratic-controlled federal government of the United States is good for the Republican Party as it looks forward eagerly to this Novembers midterms. There is no landscape more inviting than a narrowly held trifecta for your opponents: Democrats will bear responsibility for the mood of voters troubled by a stubborn pandemic, a sudden burst of inflation, a dangerous unstable international situation, and the inability of the governing party to deliver on many of its ambitious promises. The underwhelming nature of the Democratic victory in 2020 (especially in the House, where Democrats lost seats instead of posting the gains they expected) makes hanging on to the trifecta very difficult and historically improbable, particularly given President Bidens poor job approval ratings, which have stabilized in the low 40s for the moment.

So its not surprising to see exceptional optimism emanating from Republican circles. According to The Hill, GOP strategists are now raising their own expectations and preparing for a wave that will sweep not only contests in highly competitive territory but those that could turn blue areas red:

This year, the first midterm after a presidents been elected with both houses of Congress, it sets up really well, said one GOP strategist with experience working in Colorado. And theres been nothing, literally nothing to date, that looks to disrupt a really, really positive environment for candidates running in red, purple and blue areas. Thats why the map has a really huge opportunity to stretch.

Well, theres the little matter of a Donald Trump, who threatens to take away some of the focus that typically makes midterms a referendum on the current presidents performance while also creating unnecessary primary fights that may not result in the strongest possible general-election candidates. And Republicans need to be realistic about the possible extent of their midterm gains if they want to target their resources effectively and avoid their own disappointing election. This isnt easy at a time when hype and spin and proclamations of impending total victory seem to be part of the GOPs DNA, partly thanks to the former president.

But the stretching of the map of competitive races does seem likely if the bad economic and foreign news continues. Add in the stalling of the Democratic legislative agenda in Congress and continued Republican interference with voting rights in the states and you dont have an atmosphere likely to produce strong Democratic turnout in November.

How far could Republicans reach? Pretty far, as The Hill notes:

Republicans have already begun allocating staff and money for ad buys and touting strong candidate recruitment in states like New Mexico and Colorado, which are not at the core of the midterm fight but could be caught in a red wave if it rises high enough. Connecticuts gubernatorial race and Washington states Senate election also fall in that expansion category, as do House races against some Democrats who saw double-digit wins in 2020.

Aside from the possibility of unexpected Senate and gubernatorial gains (not to mention the secretary of State races that Trump has been eyeing with bad intent), its the House that Republicans are most focused on given how close (five seats) they already are to a majority. The fact that 30 House Democrats are retiring this year (the most since 1992) is another strong omen, much like birds in flight before a big storm. As Punchbowl News reports, the head of the House GOPs campaign committee, Tom Emmer of Minnesota, is talking pretty big:

If we win 18 seats,its a larger majority than 1994, Emmer noted. If we win 30 seats, its larger than 2010. And I think the number is 32 but correct me if Im wrong If we win 32 seats, its the largest Republican majority in 100 years.

Now, that would be a wave! But as Emmer undoubtedly knows, big House gains in years like 1994 and 2010 created less than majestic majorities because they occurred when Republicans were deep in a hole going into the cycle (they had 176 seats prior to the 1994 midterms and 179 prior to 2010; they have 213 now). Thus Democrats had more exposure to losses because they held more marginal seats. A more reasonable, if still ambitious, expectation might be something like the 13 net House seats they gained in 2014. That would still make Kevin McCarthy speaker (unless some backbench House Freedom Caucusled revolt toppled him) but not with a majority much more comfortable than Nancy Pelosis today.

So Republicans currently have a wind at their backs, but a big win wont come easily to a party as extremist and sometimes chaotic as theirs.

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Republicans See Red Wave and Look to Make It Even Bigger - New York Magazine