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Quantum resistant cryptography will be a key part of cybersecurity in the future. Heres what to know about how to protect your data when hackers are armed with quantum computers

Quantum computing is a contentious topic that people tend to either love or hate depending on where theyre seated. On one hand, it represents an incredible opportunity in terms of data processing speeds and capabilities. On the other, its a means through which to destroy the cryptographic algorithms we now rely on to keep sensitive data secure online. This is where something known as quantum resistant encryption comes into play.

But what is quantum resistant encryption? This article explores the history of quantum computing in cryptography, why its a threat to modern online security, and what organizations can do to prepare to implement quantum safe cryptography within their IT environments.

Lets hash it out.

In a nutshell, quantum resistant encryption refers to a set of algorithms that are anticipated to remain secure once quantum computing moves out of the lab and into the real world. (They will replace the public key cryptography algorithms currently used by billions of people around the world every day.)

By the way, when people use any of the following terms, theyre typically talking about the same thing (in most cases):

All of the public key encryption algorithms we currently rely on today are expected to be broken once researchers succeed in building large enough quantum computer. Once that happens, quantum resistant encryption will need to be used everywhere (both by normal [i.e., classical] and quantum computers) so that attackers with quantum computers cant break the encryption to steal data.

Quantum computers are fundamentally different from the computers we use today. These devices use specialized hardware components that bring quantum physics into the equation and allows them to perform certain calculations exponentially faster than even the fastest supercomputer we currently have. (Well speak to that more later in the article.)

Current public key cryptographic algorithms rely on complex mathematics (for example, the RSA encryption algorithm relies on factoring prime numbers while Diffie-Hellman and elliptic curve cryptography, or ECC, rely on the discrete logarithm problem) to securely transmit data. This means that every time you buy an item on Amazon, your browser communicates with Amazons web server via a mathematically derived secure communication channel based on one of these mathematical approaches.

The problem is that some quantum computers will be able to solve these mathematical problems so quickly that hackers would be able to break modern public key encryption within minutes. (Basically, rendering the encryption public key algorithms provide useless.)

According to the National Security Agency (NSA), quantum resistant cryptography should be resistant to cryptanalytic attacks from both classical and quantum computers. With this in mind, these algorithms would be something that can be used both before and after quantum computers are put to use in real-world applications. Theyre designed with quantum computing threats in mind, but theyre not limited to being used only after a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) is created.

Currently, encryption over insecure channels (e.g., the internet) relies on something known as public key cryptography. The idea behind traditional public key algorithms is that two parties (i.e., your websites server and the customer who wants to connect to it) can communicate securely using two separate but related keys: a public key that encrypts data and a private key that decrypts it. They use these keys to exchange secret information that they can use to create a secure, symmetrically encrypted communication channel. (Why symmetric encryption? Because its faster and less resource-intensive than public key encryption.)

Unlike modern algorithms, quantum resistant encryption algorithms will replace existing public key specifications with ones that are thought to be quantum resistant. Again, this is because the modern digital signature and key establishment algorithms we rely on in public key encryption now will no longer be secure when CRQCs become a thing.

NIST says that quantum resistant algorithms typically fall in one of three main camps:

There is a fourth category that some reference stateful hashed-based signatures. But according to NISTs PQC FAQs page:

It is expected that NIST will only approve a stateful hash-based signature standard for use in a limited range of signature applications, such as code signing, where most implementations will be able to securely deal with the requirement to keep state.

We cant give you a specific answer here because, well, nothing has really been decided yet. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has been engaged in a large-scale cryptographic competition of sorts for the past several years. The competition is an opportunity for mathematicians, researchers, cryptographers, educators and scientists to submit algorithms for consideration as future federal standards.

The standards body announced their selection of seven candidates and eight alternate algorithm candidates from the third round of submissions. However, no final decisions have been made regarding which algorithm(s) will be standardized:

To better understand quantum resistant encryption and why its needed, you first need to understand quantum computers and their anticipated impact on cyber security. The idea behind quantum computing is that these devices use quantum mechanics to approach problem solving the general goal of all modern computers in a whole new way and at exponentially faster speeds.

According to research from Mavroeidis, Vishi, Zych, and Jsang at the University of Oslo, Norway, there are two types of quantum computers:

At a basic level, the computers we use today (classical computers) communicate data using specific combinations of 1s and 0s (binary numbers called bits). All modern computers play by these same rules. For example, if I type the word Howdy! the computer uses this combination of bits to communicate the precise combination of keys I press: 01001000 01101111 01110111 01100100 01111001 00100001.

Quantum computers, on the other hand, operate on a new playing field using a different set of rules. Instead of these traditional bits (1s or 0s), it relies on quantum bits, or qubits for short. In a nutshell, instead of looking at either 1s or 0s, quantum computers view data as existing in multiple states, meaning that it can be both 1s and 0s simultaneously (this is known as a superposition). It also uses two other quantum properties entanglement and interference to connect separate data elements and eliminate irrelevant guesses to solve problems more quickly.

Of course, not all qubits are the same. Microsoft recently announced that their Azure Quantum program has unlocked the first step to developing a new type of qubit called a topological qubit. The goal is to resolve the scaling-related issues that other quantum computers face and to eventually help lead to the creation of a quantum computer capable of employing one million or more qubits. (Check out the linked article for more information on Microsofts demonstration.)

Were not going to get into all of the technical aspects of the other quantum properties we mentioned here, either. If you want to learn more about superposition, entanglement and interference, check out this video that explains these concepts in a few different ways:

The takeaway we want you to have is that, on one hand, some quantum computers are poised to solve problems beyond what modern supercomputers can do but faster and more efficiently. They also have the potential for other unimaginable capabilities to do things we havent even thought of yet. On the other hand, some quantum computers are anticipated to be no better than classical computers for some types of tasks. But trying to predict the future in terms of the full impact of quantum computers in the future is easier said than done.

Our understanding of quantum computing is largely theoretical so far, quantum computers can only be used in laboratories due to the machines massive resource and cooling requirements. Quantum chips have to be kept super cold (at -273 degrees Celsius, or what amounts to nearly absolute zero) to operate, and they can only operate for very short bursts. But the concern that cybersecurity and industry leaders have is that as quantum computers eventually become more mainstream, theyll make existing public key encryption algorithms namely, RSA (Rivest Shamir Adleman) essentially useless.

This concern is due to a concept known as Shors Algorithm. The basic overview of the concern about this algorithm, which was first demonstrated in 1994 by the guy who created it (mathematician Peter Shor), is that a powerful enough quantum computer would be able to crack modern public key algorithms pretty much instantly. How would it do this? By having the ability to calculate the factors of enormous numbers i.e., the math that operates at the very heart of modern public key encryption at faster rates than any modern devices could manage.

When you try to crack asymmetric encryption (say, RSA) using a classical computer, youre essentially trying to guess the factors of those mega-sized integers. As you can imagine, this will take a really long time using a regular computer. But with quantum properties like superposition, entanglement and interference coming into play, it can reduce the time required to make those guesses (or eliminate the need to guess some of the numbers entirely) to basically nothing. For example, while it would take upwards of millions of years for traditional computers to figure out the prime factors of 2,000+ bit numbers, a quantum computer could complete the same task within minutes.

While this enhanced speed will be great for creating positive solutions to problems such as coming up with revolutionary new treatments or cures for medical conditions it also poses a problem if these devices fall into the wrong hands.

Now, were not telling you all of this to scare you. The truth is that the threats that quantum computing represents arent new concepts, nor do they represent threats to your business and customers right now. The concept of quantum computing and all of its benefits and dangers has been around for decades and isnt expected to come to fruition yet.

Heres an overview of the history of quantum computing and how the development of quantum resistant cryptography plays a key role in it:

Here are links relating to some of the points on the timeline above:

So, how long is all of this expected to take? The answer depends on who you ask and in what context:

As youve probably seen, change tends to be relatively slow in the cryptographic world. Lets think about it another way. When TLS 1.2 was developed, TLS versions 1.1 and 1.0 were outmoded, but theyre still in use on the web and havent gone away completely. (Were at 14 years and counting at this point since TLS 1.2 was initially released and we now have TLS 1.3, which came out in 2018!)

As we touched on earlier, NIST is working on finalizing the selection of the final algorithms that will become standardized. Once final PQC algorithms are selected, then the next move will be to publish PQC standards as Federal Information Processing Standards (FIPS) and move on to implementations and deployments. Once this occurs, the Cryptographic Algorithm Validation Program (CAPV) will provide certifications for approved implementations of these approved PQC algorithms.

We bring this all up now because were drawing closer to a future when quantum computers are anticipated to become mainstream. It wont happen today, tomorrow, or likely even five years from now. But when it does, organizations will need to be able to support and use the quantum resistant encryption algorithms necessary to help keep data secure in this super-powered computer processing world to come. And things are changing now to prepare for that inevitable future.

On Jan. 19, 2022, the White House released a memorandum specifying that agencies have 180 days to identify any instances of encryption not in compliance with NSA-approved Quantum-Resistant Algorithms or CNSA [] and must report the following to the National Manager:

What does all of this mean at the level of your organization or company? In reality, not much right now for everyday businesses. But lets be realistic here its virtually impossible to be compliant with rules that havent yet been implemented. Its kind of like playing a new sport say, soccer when you dont yet know the rules or how to play it. Sure, you can go through the motions and move the ball down the field. But if you dont know how youre supposed to do it or which goal to aim for specifically, no telling if youre doing it right or if youre moving in the right direction.

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) was anticipating the release of its PQC Round 3 Report by the end of March or early April 2022. (Theres also been talk about announcing a fourth round of study as well.) Now, in all fairness, weve just started the month of April a week ago. But considering that agencies are expected to be compliant with quantum-resistant algorithms by basically July 2022, and the algorithms themselves havent officially been decided upon well, that sure makes things a lot more difficult for organizations that have to be compliant.

However, once NIST decides which algorithm(s) will become the standard, then its up to businesses and organizations to ensure that theyre not using or relying upon any algorithms that may have been deprecated. The standards body is expected to have draft PQC standards available for public comment before the end of 2023 and aims to have a finalized standard ready the following year.

Youll find that many experts typically sit in one of two camps when it comes to the topic of quantum computing and quantum resistant cryptography. On one end of the spectrum, the first camp aptly named Panicville in the illustration above essentially operates under the assumption that the end of near! Cybersecurity as we know it is about to come crashing down around us at any moment! BEWARE!

The second camp, which weve named Chillville in the above graphic, tends to take very different approach. The perspective here is typically that quantum computing is still a long way off, that its too impractical for real-world applications, or that its something we likely wont have to deal with for years to come, so theres no point in worrying about it now.

Needless to say, neither of these approaches is particularly healthy or beneficial to the security of your organization and its data. Thankfully, though, other experts tend to fall somewhere in the middle lets call it Preparationville. The purveying mindset of experts who sit within this space between the two main camps is that:

Here at Hashed Out, we definitely fall more in the middle of the spectrum; were not panicking about the changes to come but are strongly encouraging customers to start preparing now to the best of their abilities. The NSA shares on its Post-Quantum Cybersecurity Resources site that while it doesnt know when or even if a system capable of cracking public key encryption will make its debut. However, it does make it clear that preparing for an eventual transition to post-quantum cryptographic standards is a must for data security in the future.

Better to be safe than sorry, right?

Great. So, youre being told to prepare, but its hard to prepare for something when you dont really know what tools youll have at your disposal to work with. Its like trying to prepare for a disaster as a homeowner you might not know when something bad will happen, but youre going to take steps to mitigate potential impacts as much as possible.

The same concept here applies with preparing for quantum cryptography. While you may not know which algorithms specifically will be standardized, or specifically when quantum resistant cryptography will need to be implemented, you know its likely going to happen and that you should take steps now to prepare for it.

We get it theres definitely a strong case of you dont know what you dont know going on here. However, you can take steps to stay ahead of the curve as much as possible by taking the time to research and plan your strategy now. Part of this planning should include:

We cant overstate the importance of this task as its something you should already be doing anyhow. Auditing your organizations cryptographic systems, IT infrastructure and applications is crucial for a multitude of reasons. Furthermore, it can aid you as well with the development of your PQC planning and deciding what gets upgraded and when.

If your organization is running on older servers and other related infrastructure, youre likely to need to upgrade before quantum cryptography makes its debut. Something to consider includes having servers with redundant distributed databases that use PQC digital signature algorithms that are connected via quantum key distributed (QKD) connections. (QKD is a concept thats been around since the 80s and involves using quantum mechanics to distribute keys between communicating parties in traditional symmetric algorithm-protected connections.) The idea here is that this may help to protect against quantum attacks and aid in recovery from successful attacks.

What about hardware security modules? Is your organization using one in-house? Is it relying on a third party system? Ensure that whatever HSM youre using has a roadmap to support quantum safe encryption.

We understand your hesitation and dread updating your existing infrastructure is a massive undertaking. It involves major investments in money, time, and personnel-related resources. But this is why its crucial to start planning for and begin implementing these upgrades now. If you roll out the upgrade to your systems over time, it means you wont have to blow all of your capital budget in a single year or two, or risk rushing implementation (which can lead to mistakes) because you decided to wait until crap hits the fan.

Essentially, youre carefully preparing for the impending storm ahead of time (as much as you can). This way, your organization will be less likely to get caught in the downpour others will get swept away in.

The NSA also offers the Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite (CNSA Suite), which is a set of algorithms that the Committee on National Security Systems Policy 15 (CNSSP-15) has identified for protecting classified information (listed in alphabetical order):

Broken cryptosystems are the ugly companion of all the advancements that quantum computing has to offer. This is why major certificate authorities like DigiCert and Sectigo are working now to help prepare for a PQC world on their ends by creating PQC certificate authorities (CAs) and certificates.

DigiCert, which plays a key role in multiple PQC projects, offers a PQC Toolkit to Secure Site Pro customers. This toolkit offers hybrid RSA/PQC certificates, which pair PQC algorithms with classical ones. The goal here is for these certificates to work on both legacy systems (to offer backwards compatibility) and quantum systems once quantum computers finally roll out.

DigiCert estimates that it would take a traditional computer a few quadrillion years to break modern 2048-bit encryption. But considering that we dont know exactly when quantum devices are going to come charging onto the scene, its a good idea to start preparing now for when it does happen. This is why the CA also has created a resource that breaks down the Post Quantum Cryptography Maturity Model. You can use this to figure out how well prepared your organization is (or isnt) for whats the come.

Sectigos Senior Vice President of Product Management Lindsay Kent spoke during one of the companys Identity-First Summit 2022 presentations on certificate lifecycle management. Kent said that the certificate authority expects to have quantum safe security in place by 2026. The plan includes providing customers with a Quantum Safe Toolkit as well that aims to help companies:

The goal here for both CAs is to help companies use these certificates to facilitate quantum safe application-based authentication (instead of network-based authentication) and secure communications via TLS sessions. Its also to ensure that organizations can have certificates in place that support both PQC algorithms and the traditional algorithms that we have in place now.

Wait, doesnt offering backwards compatibility mean that users on classical devices will still be connecting via protocols relying on insecure algorithms once quantum computers become mainstream? Yes. But if you want to continue providing services to customers using legacy systems, thats going to continue until they eventually make the change.

An important part of the planning we talked about earlier is taking the time to review and make changes to your organizations existing internal security procedures and related documentation. Some of the things youll want to consider is what quantum resistant secure access controls and authentication measures youll need to implement. As youve probably guessed, your existing controls wont cut it in a PQC world, so everything will need to be updated to be quantum resistant once NIST publishes its standards.

As we talked about earlier, the widespread use of quantum computing and, therefore, the deployment of quantum resistant cryptography is still on the horizon but is likely at least a good decade or so away. But thats why now is the time to prepare for PQC to help your business stay ahead of the curve. You dont want to be one of the organizations caught unprepared when quantum computers make their mainstream debut.

Read more from the original source:
A Look at Quantum Resistant Encryption & Why It's Critical to Future Cybersecurity - Hashed Out by The SSL Store

By Tushar Gandhi

The term, Quantum Technology (QT), has become immensely popular and is oft-used beyond doubt. A simple search on Googles News section yielded about 75,00,000 results; the top news being Google and Amazon scheduled to attend a White House forum on Quantum Technology.

Now, before we get into the whys of QT, let us take a step back to understand its origins. QT is based on Quantum theory, which is the theoretical basis of modern physics that explains the nature and behaviour of matter and energy at atomic and subatomic levels. Interestingly, the concept of atoms is more than 2,000 years old and we owe it to ancient Greek philosophers, who introduced it. Atom means one that is uncuttable.

The 19th century saw the formulation of hypotheses about subatomic structure and finally in the initial years of the 20th century, scientists including Max Planck and Albert Einstein immensely contributed to our understanding of Quantum theory. The etymology of the term, Quantum, is itself fascinating; it is derived from Latin, meaning how great or how much.

Indeed, the potential of Quantum Technology is limitless. Countries and companies are investing billions of dollars in research and development, and building quantum communication networks to secure their cyberspace especially in the areas of sovereignty and defence. Quantum computing is an important application of QT. Quantum computers fundamentally process information differently than classical computers. Instead of using transistors that can only represent either the 1 or the 0 of binary information at a single time, quantum computers use qubits that can represent both 0 and 1 simultaneously. Since the system operates beyond regular logic, reason and predictability, its randomness of possibilities give access to an exponentially larger computational space.

QT can be used in the areas of computing, supply chain logistics, cryptography, sensing, biology, meteorology, cyber security, artificial intelligence, telecom, banking, internet-of-things, defence, and healthcare. In short, QT is tipped to come up in a big way in our everyday lives in the course of the next 10 years.

This is why according to Gartner, almost 90 percent organisations will be active in quantum computing projects and will utilise quantum computing as a service by 2023. The overall quantum market is forecast to reach $240 million by 2025, growing at a CAGR of 48 percent.

Technology giants such as Google, IBM, Amazon, Toshiba and Microsoft have invested heavily in QT. Google recently achieved quantum supremacy by solving a problem in 200 seconds that would take a classical computer 10,000 years! IBM, in June 2021, launched IBM Quantum System One in Germany, the most powerful quantum computer in Europe. IBM has a network of 150 organizations, including research labs, start-ups, universities and enterprises that are able to access its quantum computers via the cloud.

Governments across the world, including the U.S., UK, Germany, Japan and China, are showing immense interest and progress in QTs future potential. For instance, China established a 4,600 kilometers quantum communications network across the country and is also switching its key defence, banking and financial transactions on quantum communications network. In the U.S., QT is one of Pentagons top modernization priorities which has potential to be leveraged for a variety of military applications. These countries are also providing fiscal and skill-based support, and are partnering with private organizations to build their quantum technology infrastructures.

India too is taking steps towards adopting QT. In the Union Budget 2020, India allocated over $1 billion, over five years, towards the National Mission on Quantum Technology and Applications (NMQTA). Areas of focus include fundamental science, technology development, human and infrastructural resource generation, innovation and start-ups to address issues concerning national priorities.

Separately, the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) plans to build a national quantum communication network in collaboration with Department of Telecommunications. The Department of Science and Technology, which is overseeing disbursement of the allocated $1 billion fund, has identified government institutions to work along with the private sector on areas such as product development, R&D and skills development.

India has, so far, achieved approximately 100 kilometers of quantum network, lagging far behind other countries that have managed to develop thousands of kilometers of quantum network. To quickly progress, India will need to focus on product development and commercialisation, in addition to new, more intensive and sustained R&D efforts. Its impetus on indigenous manufacturing of semiconductors will also go a long way, as these are critical and essential components for development and commercialisation of quantum technologies.

Most countries that have achieved significant progress in quantum have one thing in common strong collaboration among the government, industry and academia. India, too, will need to have these three elements work closely on specific programmes and projects to develop indigenous or Made-in-India QT and networks to make its mark on the global map.

The author is the CEO and Shreya Kamath is the Researcher at public policy firm Gateway Consulting. Views are personal and not necessarily that of FinancialExpress.com)

Continued here:
Product commercialisation and strong govt-industry-academia collaboration needed for Indias progress on Quantum Tech - The Financial Express

The Quantum Systems Accelerator has been catalyzing the quantum information science (QIS) ecosystem since its foundation in 2020 as a National QIS Research Center. In recognition of the new generation of scientists and engineers preparing to harness the advances in this fast-growing field, QSA continues its series profiling early-career researchers at the centers partner institutions. Three from the Center for Quantum Information and Control at the University of New Mexico contributed their views and explained how they maximize the deep collaborative opportunities at QSA.

Anupam Mitra

Anupam MitraAnupam Mitra is a Ph.D. candidate in Physics at The University of New Mexico and part of the Deutsch Research Group at CQuIC. He focuses on some of the building blocks of neutral atom quantum computers, which involve ultracold atoms cooled to a few micro-Kelvins above absolute zero. Mitra also studies how these ultracold atoms offer the ability to solve quantum problems by simulating model quantum systems. The exponentially large number of variables needed to understand, for example, the properties of matter and energy, make these problems ideal candidates for quantum devices instead of classical computers.

Since middle school, Mitra has been interested in the physics of interference in light waves, and he has also enjoyed building and programming computers. As an undergraduate in Physics and Computer Science at the Birla Institute of Technology and Science in Goa, India, Mitra first learned how quantum phenomena such as superposition, interference, and entanglement can be used for quantum information processing.

What excites you about this growing new field?"The ability to make intermediate-scale quantum systems has led to discoveries of previously inaccessible phenomena and new ways of understanding other quantum phenomena. More complex quantum systems will help us tackle questions about the nature of space and time, the emergence of classical physics from quantum physics, and the properties of large quantum systems. Moreover, they will allow us to have more precise measurements to investigate principles and phenomena beyond what is currently accessible. I hope the research and development in quantum information processing will help humanity, from potentially finding efficient ways to harness solar energy to improving chemical processes like nitrogen fixation."

How has QSA supported your research journey?"QSA has a broad community of researchers tackling several problems at the forefront of quantum information science and technology. Regular interactions with the wider community through seminars, panel discussions, and other events have been beneficial for the rapid exchange of ideas among groups and for sharing knowledge regarding solutions to commonly faced problems. I have benefited from these events, as well as from the broader collaborations with QSA researchers. Moreover, the center-wide discussions about common challenges and issues has reduced the duplication of efforts."

Goals"From a theoretical standpoint, it is easy to imagine ideal quantum systems with well-understood noise and error sources. However, there are always limitations to what contemporary quantum experiments can do, given the complexities introduced by a more extensive quantum system. This reality has been a challenge and a learning experience, so my short-term research goal is to advance quantum information processing with highly excited Rydberg atoms. I also want to finish my doctorate and participate in developing domain-specific robust quantum devices that augment our ability to perform precise measurements, calculate properties of matter, and solve other complex computational problems. Finally, I want to increase diversity, equity, and inclusion in the field, by making it more accessible to underrepresented groups and people whose life circumstances have hindered them from accessing traditional education."

Advice to high-school students"Broadly speaking, scientific research is a collaborative human effort, so the progress we make today is based on the work of others. While many academic circumstances typically encourage us to work by ourselves, communication and exchanging knowledge are essential in science. One can learn from experts by reading their work and speaking with them. It is also essential to reach out to those who aspire to join our efforts, and especially to include groups who have been disadvantaged.

"Specifically, quantum information science and technology is a rapidly growing field that will benefit from researchers from different backgrounds. At present, many of the discussions use the language of quantum mechanics, which is heavy in linear algebra and calculus; thus, an understanding of these concepts can prepare someone better to be a part of the conversation. Most of the problems we are trying to solve are challenging enough to require contributions from many people, and therefore, we would like as many people to join us as possible."

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Pablo Poggi

Pablo PoggiPablo Poggi is a research assistant professor in Physics and Astronomy at the University of New Mexico specializing in quantum control to counteract and tailor the unwanted noise, environmental effects, and errors in quantum devices. In his theoretical research, he pushes the fundamental limitations of quantum control and studies novel methods to build, run, and benchmark quantum simulation devices.

Poggi was the lead organizer for the CQuIC summer course on quantum chaos for QSA members and the broader QIS community. Quantum chaos examines how complex quantum systems use quantum simulators and how features such as hypersensitivity could hinder reliable quantum information processing. Students and faculty across the United States attended the summer course, engaging in the scientific discussions and the lectures.

Poggi first considered physics a career thanks to a high school teacher in Argentina who encouraged him to study the revolutionary theories of relativity and quantum mechanics. Fascinated with quantum theory after reading a book by Einstein, he learned to love math and its connection with physics at the University of Buenos Aires, where he pursued experimental research in an optics lab while finally choosing theoretical research in quantum control.

What excites you about this growing new field?"Quantum physics used to be regarded as a set of bizarre rules that governed the strange behavior of the atomic world. For the past decades, it has been recognized that these rules could be seen as a feature rather than a bug, so that quantum states of superposition may be used to solve computational problems more efficiently. I am particularly excited that there is still a lot to learn about the physics of complex quantum systems, especially out of equilibrium. Quantum devices have a tremendous potential to advance knowledge in this area. The notion of quantum chaos, for example, has taken a new shape in the past few years in the field as researchers started to learn the role of entanglement spreading in many quantum systems and its connection to other system properties such as chaos, ergodicity, and thermalization.

"We live in a unique moment where quantum technologies are being developed with significant pushes from theory and experiment in academic settings, national labs, and industry. As a theorist, it is particularly exciting to think that our studies and inquiries about the fundamental capabilities to manipulate quantum systems could lead to enabling new features in industrial applications - or even to understanding why certain things cannot be done and thus why the focus should be targeted in another direction.

How has QSA supported your research journey?"Being a part of QSA has allowed me to learn about what others are doing and regularly share my work with the community without attending a formal workshop or conference. Many of my collaborators and colleagues here at UNM are part of the QSA, so participating in these collaborative activities is common. It establishes a genuine connection between different groups, potentially leading to more interdisciplinary work.

"Research-wise, we recently finished a QSA project where we studied how a quantum simulator becomes more error-prone in specific types of situations. We discovered that these situations could be explained partly by concepts developed for quantum physics and classical dynamics systems. Making this connection between quantum information and other topics on firm grounds was challenging. It demanded leaving the comfort zone of our expertise to learn about concepts in condensed matter and nonlinear dynamics, so one of the most rewarding aspects of being part of QSA is being able to engage with many colleagues at other institutions and in different ways. QIS is truly an interdisciplinary field, so having done this is a good practice for the future as well."

Goals"I look forward to taking advantage of all the center-wide knowledge and expertise being developed in a variety of topics and collaborating with people from other institutions to keep up to date and get early access to the most recent developments in QIS."

Advice to high-school students"It is exciting to get involved in QIS research because quantum technologies are still in development. There is a lot to do, and the tasks are very diverse. For example, theres research in quantum algorithms and applications of quantum devices, the fundamentals of quantum information processing, and developing the essential tools in the lab to make the quantum devices. Think about what excites you the most and look for mentors to help you get started. But also, dont be afraid to try different things. Its typically hard to find a good match on the first try and you will gain more tools to tackle problems in your future research. QIS is interdisciplinary, so being in touch with specialized communities with diverse expertise will always be a plus."

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Changhao Yi

Changhao YiChanghao Yi is a graduate student and part of the Crosson Research Group at CQuIC.

Yi specializes in quantum algorithms, specifically those for Hamiltonian simulation to study condensed matter physics and materials science.

What excites about this growing new field?"I think we are in a stage when the development of theoretical physics slows down. There are two main reasons. First, the systems are too complicated to solve even if we know all the basic principles; second, experimental physics is not developed enough to discover new phenomena. I believe the construction and control of complex quantum systems can be helpful in both aspects, so it's fascinating to combine the different knowledge areas in theoretical physics, math, and computer science to create something new.

"I look forward to the realization of quantum computing and how the concepts in quantum information, like entanglement and complexity, can be helpful in our understanding of condensed matter physics and high energy physics.

How has QSA supported your research journey?"My experience with QSA has been helpful in my research because I tune in to the QSA science talks frequently. I have also had the chance to meet researchers with similar experiences and interests. This regular communication broadens my horizon and motivates me to progress. The main challenge is learning how to collaborate with other researchers with different backgrounds. For example, I have a physics undergraduate degree. Still, my mentor at UNM has a background in computer science. And I meet researchers at QSA with a diversity of experiences, so sometimes I need to work on projects with many unfamiliar concepts."

Goals"My short-term goal is to continue my research and gain more theoretical and hands-on experience. My long-term goal is to become a professor in the field."

Advice to high-school students"Quantum information science is a research area with vitality. If you are interested in experiments, computer science, math, or theoretical physics, you can find plenty of questions to work on. This community is growing every day. It's the right time to join now."

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Founded in 1931 on the belief that the biggest scientific challenges are best addressed by teams, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and its scientists have been recognized with 14 Nobel Prizes. Today, Berkeley Lab researchers develop sustainable energy and environmental solutions, create useful new materials, advance the frontiers of computing, and probe the mysteries of life, matter, and the universe. Scientists from around the world rely on the Labs facilities for their own discovery science. Berkeley Lab is a multiprogram national laboratory, managed by the University of California for the U.S. Department of Energys Office of Science.

DOEs Office of Science is the single largest supporter of basic research in the physical sciences in the United States and is working to address some of the most pressing challenges of our time.

For more information, visit Energy.gov.

See original here:
Meet QSA's early-career researchers advancing the QIS frontier - UNM Newsroom

Don Kahle| Register-Guard

I wonder if people living in the Dark Ages knew thats what it was. Did they miss books and learning? Did they guess that their destruction wasnt complete? Did they expect a new societal order to eventually emerge? Or did they just tend their plot of vegetables, hoping not to lose their harvest to marauding barbarians before winters onset?

If were living in a dark age right now, would we know it? How could we tell? We arent starved for food, but we do seem to be tilling our own tiny, shiny rectangles. We seem to be searching for something that will get us through each day. We seek warmth from the glow of our screens, but they dont sustain us. Were stuck in Narnia, where it was always winter but never Christmas.

We feed ourselves daily with conspiracy theories, tribal hatreds and primal envy. The American Library Association counts more book bans in 2021 than ever. The ALA's Office for Intellectual Freedom tracked 729 challenges to library, school and university materials and services last year. Superstition has replaced learning and curiosity.

We can blame Facebook or Twitter, but most of those concerns rehash earlier warnings about television. The generation before was warned about newsreels and radio. Human passivity is the continual culprit. The phonograph replaced front porch music-making.

If were in the dark, its been dark for a long time a century or more. The darkness may be spreading, but it isnt getting darker. Its reach is progressing but its pitch is not. If history is any guide, humans eventually adapt. We may yet see through this darkness.

In my view, it all started during World War I with the popularization of the wristwatch. Americans always had a timepiece in their pocket. Field generals moved it to the wrist so their soldiers could synchronize attacks. Civilians picked up on the trend. Wearing a wristwatch signaled support for the troops. Information has been stalking us ever since.

With pocket watches, we werent told the time unless we asked. Once on our wrists, we stopped seeking information. Information started seeking us. Yes, church bells did that centuries earlier, but those bells didnt target individuals.

Who has ever accidentally looked at their watch, instantly assessed their situation and reflexively felt anything but small and feeble? Follow that trend through the later technologies. Crooning lovers, filmed heroics, radio dramas, television glamour, Instagram vacation photos. Do any of these make us feel better about ourselves? Nope.

Stir the pot with advertising that subsidizes these technologies, making them popular to the point of becoming irresistible. Advertisers are the Greek Chorus, always reminding us that doom awaits. We feel insufficient without their product, helpless and hapless until we succumb. Those voices are now everywhere pervasive, polarizing and personalized.

Its not a cheery picture, I know. What feels like our fate might still be averted. What will lift the pall? Heres a hunch.

Were just a few years away from a quantum leap in computing power literally. Quantum computers will be unimaginably powerful. What we use today will look like Texas Instruments calculators. Thats really all they are. They can only answer questions, not solve problems. We tell our machines what we dont know. Our ignorance propels the machine.

Future computers will be fueled by our curiosity, not by our ignorance. A computer that is able to assign precise GPS coordinates for every grain of sand on a beach wont be used to answer questions. It will instead explore every possible solution to a particular problem. It will extend and accelerate what first lifted humanity our curiosity.

How soon? How well? For whose benefit? No one knows those answers yet.

Don Kahle (fridays@dksez.com) writes a column each Friday and Sunday for The Register-Guard. Past columns are archived atwww.dksez.com.

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Conspiracy theories, tribal hatreds and primal envy: Are these the dark ages? - The Register-Guard

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While IonQ (NYSE:IONQ) is an exciting company in a next-generation industry, I think the company will struggle to keep up with the rapid pace of technological change. The company is competing with companies with more financial resources necessary to pay for the best talent. The company is losing money, and that will not change soon. Constant refinancing or dilution will be required. It's also unclear how much value IONQ has added to its customers. It is difficult to find information and even more challenging to understand the technology behind quantum computing. Much of any potential future success is already priced into its enormous valuation. In addition, the cost of talent and energy is rising, and venture capital is becoming scarcer as interest rates rise. Therefore, I do not see an attractive risk/reward ratio.

IonQ was founded in 2015 by Dr. Christopher Monroe and Dr. Jungsang Kim, who already had decades of experience researching quantum computers. They had "the goal of taking trapped ion quantum computing out of the lab and into the market".

Right now, it's the only public company whose quantum computers are available in big-tech clouds - via Microsoft's (MSFT) Azure and Amazon's (AMZN) Web Services starting in 2019, and Google's (GOOG) cloud starting in 2021. These can be booked by companies, which generates revenue for the company. The company has been listed on the stock exchange since October 2021.

The quantum computing market size is predicted to rise from $89.6 million in 2019 to $1,866.8 million by 2030 (according to the market research report published by P&S Intelligence), equaling a CAGR of 33.1%. Furthermore, on page 3 of their investor presentation, IONQ mentions a $65B TAM by 2030.

Of course, these are all estimates, and I doubt any assessment that goes further than two years into the future. However, it is almost certain that when quantum computers exceed the computing power of today's best classical supercomputers, the market will be there, and it will be huge. This assumes that the performance will also be practically usable without producing errors, which researchers have struggled with so far. There are already quantum computers that are faster than today's supercomputers, but so far, these perform calculations tailored to them and cannot be used for "everything" in general.

According to IBM, how exactly quantum computers will be useful, we do not know yet. Among the early adaptors are Financial managers and banks. Pharmaceutical companies could also become significant beneficiaries, and finally, quantum computers will help elevate machine learning and AI to levels of complexity that are unimaginable for us today. And there will undoubtedly be many other areas of application, but from today's point of view, this is only speculation.

Many technologies are used for quantum computing qubits, such as superconducting, photonics, silicon-based, spin qubits, trapped-ions, etc. IONQ's quantum technology of choice is trapped-ion qubits created from an isotope of a rare-earth metal called ytterbium but will be switched to barium in the next generation. These barium-based systems are supposed to offer several benefits, such as lower error rates, systems that are easier to network, and increased uptime for customers.

Overall, IONQ is more focused on keeping errors low, as their systems are already commercially available. It could be a potential risk for the company to commit to a specific technology too early and thus be less free to research than the competition: a side effect of the IPO. From now on, the market expects sales to rise sharply.

The current system operates with 20 algorithmic qubits and is expected to multiply within the next few years. However, it is essential to remember that while these long-term projections are a goal for companies, they are never sure to happen.

IONQ march presentation

Meanwhile, on November 15, IBM (IBM) introduced a chip with more than 100 qubits. The 'Eagle' chip is a step towards IBM's goal of creating a 433-qubit quantum processor next year, followed by one with 1,121 qubits, named Condor, by 2023. Already in 2019, Google announced a 54 qubit processor with the goal to build a "useful quantum computer" by 2029.

Other competitors include Honeywell (HON) and several Chinese companies that are going their independent way in this area. As we can see, it's a crowded business where we'll see a lot of discoveries and research in the future. It's impossible to predict who will build the most superior systems for years to come. But one thing is certain: This will require massive capital and talent. Currently, IONQ has only 97 employees (according to Seeking Alpha's company profile), which sounds like almost nothing and makes me wonder how this small company can compete with multi-billion dollar companies. Sure, they have partners like the University of Maryland and South Korea's Q Center. But will this be enough? I don't know. But what I know is...

IONQ currently has a market capitalization of $2.5B with debt of $4.2M and "cash, cash equivalents, and investments" of $603M as of December 31, 2021, resulting in an enterprise value of approximately $1.9B. According to the latest press release, 2021 revenues were $2.1M ($1.6M in Q4), representing an EV/S ratio of 904. The company expects sales in 2022 to be between $10.2M and $10.7M, which would correspond to a price to sales ratio of about 180.

The 2021 net loss was $106.2 million, and the adjusted EBITDA loss was $28.3 million. For 2022, adjusted EBITDA loss is expected to be approximately $55 million. So the cash burn rate continues to accelerate, but at least the cash reserves are sufficient for a few more years. Nevertheless, there is no indication if and when the company will ever be cash flow positive. In the current monetary and geopolitical environment, energy is becoming more expensive, and salaries are higher, especially for the highly educated talent that IONQ needs. They are permanently competing with rivals who can comfortably pay any compensation.

One thing I always check when stock prices appear high is whether there has been insider selling. I interpret that as a sign that those sellers think their price is overvalued. So there's not much to see here, especially since the stock price was double in December. Nevertheless, I mention it anyway because it is always valuable to check insider selling.

openinsider

I could not find out the price for bookings of the quantum computers. Then I realized that there is very little information:

Or in other words: I find it extremely difficult to assess whether this is a sticky business with high added value for IONQ's customers or not. Without knowing that, how should private investors like us evaluate our investments? The technical descriptions and developments are hard to understand for private investors. For example, how is anyone supposed to understand whether barium-based systems will be better than those made of ytterbium? So you always have to rely on the information provided by the company. At the same time, we don't know what the competition is currently researching and how far they are already behind closed doors. It will be the same as in every area of the economy: whoever offers the best product at the best price will prevail.

So there is a lot of uncertainty. Nevertheless, the valuation is so high that years of strong growth are already priced in. It is not an appealing risk-reward ratio. There is a lot of downside potential at this valuation, and I can hardly think of a trigger that would send this enormously high valuation even higher now.

But of course, there are also many positive things about the company. They have proven their concept and already have quantum computing systems in the clouds and successfully monetize them. This could well indicate that the company is technically further ahead than the competition, especially regarding a lower error rate, which research struggles with a lot.

Furthermore, the management team consists of high-caliber and highly educated people. Some have been researching the subject for decades and have previously done fundamental quantum research at universities. Furthermore, there is now a joint R&D with Hyundai to create the next generation EV batteries. The company also has high-profile investors (Amazon, Google) and customers (Goldman Sachs, Accenture).

The company may be a takeover candidate. While they are not generating much revenue, the intellectual property could be precious. Moreover, their system is already running on the clouds of Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. Therefore, it would not be far-fetched if one of these three companies were interested in a takeover. IONQ's technology and employees would most likely complement their research. At the moment, of course, this is just pure speculation, but it should be kept in mind, especially if you want to short the stock because of its valuation.

It is a tempting stock to short. However, there is also risk: The hype around the share and quantum computers may continue or intensify. Furthermore, the company could be a takeover candidate. If you want to short, be sure to place a stop order so that the risk is limited. If you don't want to do that, I think this company is an excellent candidate to wait and see. It is likely that at some point, the company will not reach its quarterly targets, and on that day, the share price will fall sharply. There will be a better time for an entry if you ever want to enter.

For all these reasons, an investment is out of the question for me. So far, there is only meager revenue, a lot of research to do, a high valuation, and a business model that I can't assess. Moreover, a competitor could make a breakthrough any day, causing the company to fall behind technologically. Nevertheless, it is a stock I want to keep on my watchlist since it could possibly be a potential winner of one of the next megatrends.

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IonQ: Enormous Valuation And The Competition Is Big-Tech - Seeking Alpha