President Obama and European leaders warned Tuesday of broader economic sanctions on sectors like energy, finance, and arms sales should Russia escalate a delicate situation in Ukraine. Heightened warnings suggest Western leaders are more willing to counter Russia's 'natural gas weapon' with a weapon of their own.
In its showdown with Moscow over Ukraine, the West's 'nuclear option' is a matter of oil and gas.
Subscribe Today to the Monitor
Click Here for your FREE 30 DAYS of The Christian Science Monitor Weekly Digital Edition
Russian energy has appeared largely off-limits as a target of Western sanctions because of the far-reaching impact it could have on the global economy. But the idea is beginning to gain traction among Western leaders who may calculate they have more to gain than lose by constraining Russia's flow of fuel. The threat of energy sanctions, at least, might be enough to deter Russia from moving farther into Ukraine or elsewhere in Eastern Europe.
US and European sanctions against Russia in response to the Crimean annexation have so far been limited to wealthy individuals and a bank connected to Russian President Vladimir Putin's inner circle. But President Obama and European leaders warned Tuesday that could change if Moscow continues its incursions into eastern Europe.
The US has held off on more broad-based sanctions, Mr. Obama said in a press conference Tuesday with Dutch Prime MinisterMark Rutte, "but, should Russia go further, such sectoral sanctions would be appropriate." Those could include energy, finance, and arms sales, Obama added, and officials are currently analyzing the effect of far-reaching sanctions on the global economy.
Targeting Russia's energy sector could have a devastating impact on Mr. Putin's government, which relies on its state-dominated oil and gas industry for about half of its federal revenues. But officials fear such a move could cause a "boomerang effect" that would have an equally significant impact on the economies of Eastern and Central Europe. The European Union relies on Russia for roughly 30 percent of both its imported gas and oil and has only had limited success in long-standing attempts to diversify its energy mix.
It's why both sides have so far steered clear of sweeping curbs on energy trade flows, opting instead to test the waters by targeting specific businessmen and politicians. But Western leaders sounded a more strident tone at a nuclear security summit in The Hague Tuesday, suggesting they were willing to expand sanctions if the situation escalates.
"[A] highly undiversified economy, like the Russian economy, which is so much oil and gas-dependent, which has not invested in infrastructure, invested in other areas of its economy it will be worried if there is a risk in the financial sector, or in weapons, or in trade, or indeed in energy," Mr. Rutte said at the press conference."There could be potential sanctions; it will hurt them. And as I said earlier, we have to design them in such a way that they will particularly hit Russia and not Europe, the US, Canada, or Japan."
Continued here:
Obama warns of energy sanctions if Russia escalates Ukraine crisis (+video)