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Today, OPEC+ grants Saudi Arabia an oil win, Finland elects a new prime minister, and Israels far-right firebrand fights for his own national guard.

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A trip to the gas pump may soon come with sticker shock after OPEC+ announced another set of cuts to oil production on Sunday. Starting in May, the oil cartelled by Saudi Arabia and Russiawill slash output by 1.65 million barrels a day in a bid to push up the global price of crude.

The announcement comes amid a crucial shift in the global economy: Beijings decision to lift zero-COVID restrictions brought its sizable market back online, increasing demand for crude. This created an opportune moment for OPEC+ nations to raise oil prices, said Raad Alkadiri, managing director of energy, climate, and resources at Eurasia Group.

Crude prices were also beginning to settle after last months banking crisis led many hedge funds to fear they were risky assets and sell their oil shares. OPEC+ hopes cutting production will reverse weeks of macroeconomic uncertainty.

But not everyone is happy with the decisionespecially in Washington, where the Biden administration is concerned the move will cause gas prices to rise at home and harm efforts to curb high inflation around the world. Central banks are struggling to rein in inflation without raising interest ratesparticularly in Europe, which could be facing a looming recession in the coming months.

Its also yet another sign of the increasingly rocky relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia. Riyadh has refused to cut ties with Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine, undermining the effectiveness of Western sanctions on Russia. Against U.S. wishes, the cartel announced in October 2022 that it would cut its output by 2 million barrels of oil a day. In response, the United States partially drained its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to support Ukraine and keep oil prices in check.

Last week, however, President Joe Biden said it could take years to refill the reserve, meaning the Wests biggest powerhouse has little ammunition left. They basically used all the bullets they had last year, said Livia Gallarati, a senior analyst at Energy Aspects. Now, theyre left with little to nothing that they can do to counterbalance the impact of the OPEC production cuts.

But its the major oil importers in less developed parts of the world that are expected to bear the brunt of rising petrol prices. Alkadiri predicts Pakistan in particular, which is already struggling with a severe energy crisis, could face significant financial pressure.

Since the nations that announced oil cuts are doing so voluntarily, it is possible for OPEC+ to reverse course. But the likelihood of the bloc doing so is minimal, Gallarati said, and the damage to its relationships with Western allies is done.

China Has Been Waging a Decades-Long, All-Out Spy War by Calder Walton

Israel Is Somewhere Its Never Been Before by Aaron David Miller and Daniel C. Kurtzer

Bidens State Department Needs a Reset by Stephen M. Walt

Tuesday, April 4: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken holds a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Brussels.

G-7 trade ministers meet virtually.

Wednesday, April 5: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits Poland.

Wednesday, April 5, to Saturday, April 8: French President Emmanuel Macron visits China.

Thursday, April 6: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko meet.

Helsinkis electoral twist. Finlands ruling party suffered a bitter defeat, with Prime Minister Sanna Marin losing to center-right former Finance Minister Petteri Orpo in Sundays election. Orpos National Coalition Party secured 20.8 percent of the vote, compared to the 19.9 percent won by Marins Social Democratic Party. Candidate Riikka Purras populist Finns Party won 20.1 percent, a record for the right-wing group.

Marin garnered international attention after securing the top post in 2019 at the age of 34. As the countrys youngest leader in history, Marin won praise at home and abroad for successfully navigating the COVID-19 pandemic, Russias invasion of Ukraine, and Finlands NATO accession bidset to be officially signed on Tuesday. However, she faced political embarrassment in the summer of 2022 when video of her out partying and drinking with friends surfaced. She also failed to keep her party together on key Indigenous rights legislation, journalist John Last wrote for Foreign Policy.

In contrast, Orpo is known for his handling of the 2015 migrant crisis while internal minister. He campaigned on tax and spending cuts, notably to welfare programs like unemployment benefits, as well as reducing public debt. Speaking to journalist Emily Schultheis for Foreign Policy, Orpo said hed be willing to work with the other candidates in building a potential coalitionif significant policy differences were overcome first.

Moscow arrests Russian dissident. Authorities detained a 26-year-old anti-war activist suspected of being involved with Sundays bombing in St. Petersburg, Russia, which killed a pro-Russia blogger. Around 30 people were injured in the blast. Moscow blamed Ukrainian intelligence as well as agents linked to Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny for the attackwithout providing evidence.

The Kremlins announcement indicates Moscow may begin to further crack down on Russian dissidents in the coming days. Since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia under President Vladimir Putin has engaged in intense disinformation and propaganda campaigns to combat the West.

Justice comes to Kosovo. Former Kosovar President Hashim Thaci begins his trial at a war crimes tribunal in The Hague on Monday. He stands accused of committing more than 100 murdersfrom executions to the deaths of mistreated prisonersduring Kosovos 1998-1999 war of independence against Serbia. Thaci pleaded not guilty.

The guerrilla leader targeted enemies of the Albanian Kosovo Liberation Army during his reign. Thaci, along with three other men, each face six counts of crimes against humanity and four counts of war crimes.

Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir may be the only member of the countrys current government to have secured an even stronger political position from Israels recent turmoil. On Sunday, Israels government approved his call to form a new Israeli National Guard within the National Security Ministry.

The far-right politician is known for pushing Jewish supremacy and anti-Arab racism within Israels Religious Zionist Party. He has endorsed increasing Israeli settlements in the West Bank and sparked anger in January after making a controversial visit to the Temple Mount/al-Aqsa Mosque complex in Jerusalem, a site sacred to both Jews and Muslims. He has also been convicted multiple times for incitement and supporting a Jewish terrorist group.

Now, critics of Ben-Gvir, such as former police chief Moshe Karadi, worry that the national guard, if under Ben-Gvirs direct control, will act as his personal militia and could be used to instigate a coup. A committee composed of the countrys security agencies and the relevant government ministries is expected to discuss the responsibilities ofand control over the new force and submit its recommendations to the cabinet within 90 days, according to a government press release.

It seems the French have found the one thing they can all agree on: banning scooters. Parisians voted to outlaw electric scooters in the capital on Sunday, with an overwhelming 90 percent of votes in favor of the law. Now, if only they can come together on issues like pension reform.

Originally posted here:
OPEC+ Oil Production Cuts Hurt Western Economic Prospects - Foreign Policy

Trumps arraignment

Donald Trump has a busy day ahead of him tomorrow. He returned to the Big Apple Monday night and, after getting some shut-eye in Trump Tower, the former president will head to the Manhattan courthouse on Tuesday for his indictment. After his court appearance and a quick photo-op, hell jet back to Mar-a-Lago before an evening news conference.

Sound like an orchestrated plan? Thats because Trumps team wants to capitalize on the publicity blitz around his arrest to bolster his bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Theres reason to believe this is working: Since the news of his indictment dropped, his campaign claims to have raised $7 million, and his polling numbers have soared above other Republican candidates.

On March 30, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg brought the results of his investigation before a Manhattan grand jury, which voted to indict the former president. Trump is expected to plead not guilty on Tuesday.

While the charges against him have not been revealed, they likely involve Trump's reimbursement to his former attorney and fixer, Michael Cohen, who paid adult film star Stormy Daniels $130,000 in exchange for her silence ahead of the 2016 election. The Trump Organization then filed Cohens $420,000 reimbursement and bonus as a legal expense.

Falsifying business records is only a misdemeanor in New York, but if it is done with the intent to commit or cover up another crime namely, violating campaign finance laws then Trump could be looking at a Class E felony and a minimum of one year in prison.

Trump will be the first former US president to be indicted on criminal charges. But whether his indictment will push the GOP to jump ship in favor of another candidate, or what it means for the campaign if they dont, remains unclear.

On Tuesday, Finland finally joins NATO, lengthening the alliances border with Russia by 800 miles and adding to its ranks some of the worlds most fearsome snow snipers. Good work, Mr. Putin!

But remember who isnt joining the club? Sweden, whose accession bid remains blocked by NATO member Turkey, who says Stockholm still hasnt done enough to quash Kurdish terrorist groups that are at war with the Turkish government. Note that Turkey dropped similar objections about Finland last week but is still squeezing Sweden.

Why? For one thing, Turkeys pugnacious President Recep Tayyip Erdoan faces a very tough election in May, and flexing against the West like this can stoke nationalist passions in his favor. He may also seek concessions from his Western partners elsewhere, say, on Washingtons refusal to sell him state-of-the-art fighter jets, or its support for Kurdish militias in Syria.

For years, Erdoan has played a shrewd game as a NATO member but friend to Putin; a European partner on the migrant crisis but at a price. By greenlighting Finland while holding back on Sweden, hes showing hes willing to be reasonable but that he expects his pound of flesh too. Will it work?

Times are tough economically speaking in Egypt, and President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi is looking to mend and shore up relations across the region. On Monday, el-Sissi traveled to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, aka MBS, the countrys de facto leader.

El-Sissi's visit comes as the economy of import-reliant Egypt is reeling as a result of economic mismanagement and Russias war in Ukraine. (Egypt has been forced to devalue its currency three times over the past year.)

While Riyadh has long doled out funds to help keep cash-strapped Egypt afloat, it recently said that it will no longer hand out blank checks and that Cairo should implement reforms to receive aid. El-Sissi likely wants to convince MBS that hes already making some changes as part of a deal with the International Monetary Fund.

Another big topic on the agenda? Reintegrating Syria, deemed a pariah by the West, into the Arab League. This comes just days after Egypt and Syria held high-level talks for the first time in a decade as Cairo looks to reestablish diplomatic ties with Bashar al-Assad. Indeed, Egypt is just the latest Arab country to welcome Syria back in from the cold, with reports that el-Sissi hopes to eventually win lucrative contracts to help rebuild the war-torn country.

Go here to see the original:
What Were Watching: Trumps day in court, Turkey stuffing Sweden, Egypt buddying up - GZERO Media

Investigators believe many were brainwashed by smugglers and social media posts advertising safe routes to the UK.

But they could now be pivotal in providing vital clues to investigators on the smugglers identities, the routes they take and how they control different camps in Northern France.

The NCA believes migrants will realise the immense danger people smugglers put them, and their children, in and may be motivated by trying to prevent friends and family from being put in peril.

Gangs are also buying cheap, dangerous single-use boats made just for a solitary Channel crossing, the Daily Express understands.

But we're really keen to hear from those individuals.

At the time, they wanted to get here, they're almost brainwashed with the social media from the facilitators.

Theyve arrived here. They may now realise the risks that they've undertaken or the risks their children have been put through, or their family members in the future.

We're really keen to engage with those members of the community now because they may hold some really important information about the facilitators, the groups, and their journey.

Mr Morris said many of the migrants come from countries where there is no trust in the police or the authorities.

He added: Part of our process will be initially using Crimestoppers, completely anonymous and that is the way were going to start to communicate out to individuals.

Our angle is, at the end of the day, they are human beings. Not everyone, although theyve arrived here criminally, committed offences.

We just want to explain the differences between the UK authorities and police forces and start building that trust because, like general policing by consent, were only as good as the intelligence we are getting from our communities.

Yes, some we will need to pursue because they are causing us problems, but there is a vast number that we can work with."

Asked if the NCA had spoken to the Home Office about the idea, Mr Morris said: They understand that theres no one silver bullet. Yes, we will pursue the criminals and those criminal elements.

A lot of our information comes from that initial engagement with migrants as they come off the boats and if there are individuals already here that can tell us about their journeys, and are happy to, then we really want to reach out to them and the Home Office will understand that that will build on our knowledge of the wider threat.

Senior members of the NCA also revealed gangs are, en masse, buying cheap boat engines so poorly constructed that they cannot be sold in Europe.

They are also increasingly concerned that profits from Channel people smuggling operations are being reinvested in drug and gun crime networks. People smuggling is feared to be a stepping stone into even more lethal trades.

The Home Office fears around 80,000 migrants will cross the English Channel this year. The NCA admitted 2023 is likely to be another record-breaking year as refugees flee wars, natural disasters and economic catastrophes.

Mr Morris said: When you look at those numbers and why we say they are going to be higher, part of that is because if we look at the areas that are suffering from conflict, and with really drastic living standards, that is increasing.

They [the smugglers] are reassuring people that you can use the small boat method, it is extremely cheap and when you get to the UK, you are over the goal line and you are made for life.

All those messages are wrong. More and more migrants that have arrived by this route are realising it is not such a pleasant environment.

The Daily Express has been told there are criminals in the UK exploiting the Channel migrant crisis.

But the NCA does not currently believe any heads of the smuggling gangs operating in the Channel live in the UK.

Kurdish gangs are still largely believed to control most of the smuggling routes. But the lengths of the beaches in Northern France means there is still space for more gangs to operate, despite many taking control of migrant camps and even certain beaches where they launch their boats from.

The smuggling networks are said to be younger and more chaotic than traditional organised crime networks which rely upon clear structures.

Amid an influx of Albanian migrants crossing the Channel last Summer, investigators were concerned other gangs may try to wrestle control from the Kurds.

Albanian crime gangs have brutally gained control of Britains cocaine market and dominate in nearly every city.

But the NCA told the Daily Express they are not seeing cocaine and gun-running gangs shifting to people smuggling as there are greater profits in the more traditional commodities.

Mr Morris said: The profits that can be made from the people smuggling, small boat method, are there because the volumes of customers, passengers being put on those boats

There are still much better profits on the more traditional commodities. If we are looking at trafficking in a shipment, there may be shared loads. They may mix commodities. It might even put firearms on drugs loads.

The only issue is, and this happens across other commodities, is if they are lower sophisticated, they are starting to make money in this area, then if they want to make more money and become more successful, they will move into those other commodities.

The money they make from this will undoubtedly be invested into those commodities. If you think, one of our issues with the small boat issue, it is UK-specific.

Facilitators are living within their communities, are making money from this and will be expanding into other criminalities.

Were not seeing people coming from drugs or other more traditional commodities. As Ive seen in our thematic reporting, this is their stepping stone into that more profitable work.

People smugglers are trying to boost their profits by cramming more migrants into dangerously poor-quality boats.

But gangs are attempting to cut costs as well, by purchasing single-use boats and engines.

Katherine Tyler, the head of the NCA team fighting organised immigration crime, told the Daily Express: The boats that we are seeing being used are sometimes single-use boats.

They are not boats that you would see for sale through the normal market.

They are specifically made, in order, for single use, perhaps specifically for crossing the Channel.

The greatest concern is that the numbers of migrants per boat is steadily increasing.

Mr Morris added: They are using very low quality engines. Brand new, single use and the indications are they are being bought en mass.

They are low quality, cheap, mass-produced engines which the criminals involved basically use as a single-use disposable engine, like the boat.

Thats probably the actual regard they have for the human beings on the boat.

Read more here:
Migrants to join UK's fight on people smugglers with anonymous tip-offs - Express

The deaths of dozens of migrants at a detention center in Ciudad Jurez, on the Mexico-U.S. border, has brought the migratory crisis into sharper focus. The facility, run by the Mexican National Institute of Migration (INM), has been overcrowded for several years and was engulfed in a fire on Tuesday that has taken the horrors and hardships facing would-be migrants into the United States to a new level. The authorities have placed the death toll at 38 people with 28 more seriously injured, all of them men, in what is the worst tragedy ever to have occurred at a federal immigration center. In its aftermath, questions are being asked about the actions of immigration agents tasked with their care. A video that circulated on social media on Tuesday showed guards fleeing the building and leaving the men locked up while smoke and flames erupted.

The terror and desperation on display in the video contrast with the initial reactions of the Mexican government. President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador said Tuesday that the migrants had learned they were going to be deported and had set mattresses alight in protest. Some of the 68 men had been detained the previous afternoon in Ciudad Jurez amid a recent crackdown on migrants in the city. Others were returning from the United States, according to local media reports.

What remains unanswered is why the detainees were locked in cells and why the guards did not let them out when the fire started. International organizations have condemned the lack of response from the immigration agents at the center. The United Nations has demanded a thorough investigation. Others have been more critical, such as the NGO Refugees International.The INM has a long history of the abuse of migrants in Mexico, and greater accountability for those abuses could have prevented this tragedy, said Rachel Schmidtke, the NGOs senior lawyer for the region.

Latin America is experiencing an unprecedented migratory crisis, fueled by violence, hunger, lack of opportunity, climate change and political and economic factors. Over the past five years, hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, Hondurans, and Guatemalans, among many other nationalities, have crossed jungles and deserts in an attempt to forge a new life in the U.S. or Canada. Many have died on the journey, victims of organized crime and the networks of traffickers and facilitators who exploit the exodus. Now, the authorities have failed them as well.

The problem is a long-standing one. The administrations of Donald Trump and Joe Biden have both entrusted Mexico with a role in U.S. immigration policy, which consists of stopping new arrivals before they cross the border. Mexico has performed this task with considerable effectiveness. Over the past two years record numbers of migrant detentions have been recorded: 228,115 in 2021 and 444,439 in 2022. North of the Rio Grande, the U.S. government has been closing routes to migrants, including those for political or humanitarian asylum. Title 42 legislation enacted in 2020 under Trump that closed U.S. borders to prevent the spread of coronavirus remains in place under the Biden administration and continues to be used to prevent migrants from seeking international protection, with very few exceptions, despite the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announcing in May 2022 that it was no longer required for pandemic containment.

In Mexico, little has changed in recent years. Lpez Obrador assumed the presidency in December 2018 with a humanist, cross-cutting discourse, which soon found itself at odds with Trumps rhetoric over the construction of a border wall. A barrier that, the Republican president added, he would make Mexico pay for. The battle of wills went back and forth, with Lpez Obrador stating that Mexico would do no such thing. However, Mexico has created its own wall through the INM, which is supported in its role by the Mexican National Guard, created in 2019 under the Lpez Obrador administration.

However, the INMs broad mandate to monitor and detain migrants has failed to prevent the flow. Instead, it has served to hide it, pushing it even further toward the margins. Tragedies have occurred before the Ciudad Jurez fire. In December 2021, a truck full of migrants crashed in Chiapas, southern Mexico, leaving a terrible toll: 54 dead and more than 100 injured. Earlier the same year, in February, a group of 17 migrants passing through Tamaulipas, a border region in Mexicos northeast, encountered a group of police officers who, for reasons that remain unclear, riddled them with bullets. They then set fire to their bodies.

But the Ciudad Jurez is of a different dimension because there, the migrants were under the charge of the Mexican government. The INM, which is nominally dependent on the Secretariat of the Interior, manages the immigration center at the Stanton-Lerdo International Bridge, located a few hundred meters from the U.S. border. Its agents are responsible for the facility and those who are inside it. The center has said that it will cooperate with the investigation, which is being carried out by the Mexican Public Prosecutors Office (FGR).

It remains to be seen how the Mexican government will respond to the tragedy: whether it treats it is a one-off error, blames individual agents for failing to follow protocols, or points the finger at the system as a whole. On Tuesday, Secretary of Foreign Affairs Marcelo Ebrard provided some indication of what the fallout might be. On social media, he said that those directly responsible for the events have been presented before the FGR, without giving further details. On the other hand, some pro-government media outlets have reported that the Attorney Generals Office, which insists responsibility for the fire rests with the migrants, has made progress on its own investigation.

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Deaths in Ciudad Jurez detention center fire lay bare the harsh reality of migration crisis - EL PAS USA

NEW YORK After learning that a fire at an immigration detention center in northern Mexico killed more than three dozen migrants, Bishop Mark Seitz of El Paso said the tragedy underscores the urgency of addressing the complex humanitarian crisis at the southern border.

Our brother and sister migrants, who are in many cases fleeing extreme violence, persecution, and extreme poverty, deserve dignity, compassion, and the protection of their human rights as children of God, Seitz, who is the U.S. Bishops Conference Migration Committee chair, said in a statement. As a faith community we are called to respond to their suffering with love, empathy, and support.

The fire at the National Migration Institute in Ciudad Jurez the city bordering El Paso killed at least 40 migrants. It started around 10 p.m. after migrants set mattresses ablaze in protest of their pending deportation, according to Mexico President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador.

29 others were injured in the fire and are in delicate-serious condition, the institute said in a statement. There were 68 men from Central and South America held in the facility at the time of the fire. As a protest, at the door of the shelter, they put mattresses and set them on fire, and they did not imagine that this was going to cause this terrible tragedy, Lpez Obrador said at a news conference. We assume it was because they found out they were going to be deported.

Seitz offered his deepest and most heartfelt condolences to the families of the migrants who died and extended prayers for the swift recovery of the individuals who were injured. He also pledged to continue his advocacy for more humane immigration policies.

As we mourn this devastating loss, I call upon people of all faiths and goodwill to join in prayer for the victims and their families, Seitz said. May our collective efforts lead to meaningful change and help prevent such tragedies from occurring.

Directly across from El Paso, Ciudad Jurez has long been a hot spot for migrants to gather before they attempt to enter the United States. U.S. Customs and Border Protection have encountered almost 225,000 migrants trying to illegally cross into El Paso between Oct. 1, 2022, and February 2023, according to agency data. Overall, there have been almost 900,000 total encounters over that time, the data shows. Dylan Corbett, executive director of the El Paso-based Hope Border Institute a faith-based immigration advocacy organization that does humanitarian work in both El Paso and Ciudad Jurez told Crux that the fire is a direct result of U.S. pressure on Mexico to up its immigration enforcement, especially at the northern part of the border. Corbett said Hope has done humanitarian work at the National Migration Institute in Ciudad Jurez in the past, but has not had access in recent months amid the crackdown prompted by the U.S. government.

We know theres a direct line that you can draw from the Biden administration pressuring the government of Ciudad Jurez to increase enforcement to the death that weve seen, Corbett said.

The strategy that weve implemented includes as part of its overhead death, so its an indictment of our approach, Corbett continued. Death cant be the price of immigration enforcement and theres nothing stopping us from putting in place a humane and effective and safe process at the border. Corbett and other immigration advocates have long been critical of the Biden administrations border entry deterrent policies that limit migrants ability to seek asylum, arguing that they are not just illegal but ineffective given the desperation of many migrants. They have argued at a time of record number of migrant crossings at the border that the administration and Congress need to work on comprehensive reform to the nations immigration system and work to address the root causes that force people to migrate in the first place. In the short term, advocates say more effective legal pathways are needed.

The system we allowed to be created in our name is predicated on pain and death and that is what killed them, Corbett said. We have to work to put in place a more just system.

Seitz also works with migrants on both sides of the border, calling Ciudad Jurez El Pasos sister city. He said in the aftermath of the fire, he has been in communication with the bishop of Ciudad Jurez. I have been in contact with Bishop Jos Guadalupe Torres Campos, expressed my prayer solidarity with him and the faithful of his diocese, and offered support to him and the people in his pastoral care in the Diocese of Ciudad Jurez, Seitz said.

Follow John Lavenburg on Twitter:@johnlavenburg

Originally posted here:
Deadly fire at Jurez detention center shows 'urgency' of addressing ... - Crux Now