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This article first appeared on the Atlantic Council site.

As the chaos in Libya continues, recent reports indicate that the United States is considering ramping up its diplomatic and military involvement in Libya.

On July 10, CNN reported that the Trump administration could soon finalize a new policy for Libya to expand US presence in the country.

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If realized, a new policy for Libya must prioritize the stabilization of the country in coordination with key European allies. Despite President Trumps initial hesitation to consider Libya of critical importance to US national security, it has become clearer that the United States cannot ignore the security threat that Libya poses to US allies in the southern Mediterranean.

Southern Europe faces three major security threats emanating from Libya: illegal migration, criminal activity, and terrorism.

Libya is the largest crossing point for migrants to Europe; more than seventy thousand migrants reached Italy this year; the number reached more than 180,000 in 2016. Criminal organizations engage in cross-border human trafficking networks from sub-Saharan Africa to the Mediterranean and smuggle products including drugs and weapons.

A member of the Libyan National Army, loyal to the country's east strongman Khalifa Haftar, in central Benghazi on July 6, 2017, after retaking the area from jihadist fighters. Libyan military strongman Khalifa Haftar on July 5 announced the "total liberation" of second city Benghazi, which was overrun by jihadists three years ago. Defense Secretary Mattis and his Italian counterpart recently discussed how to best intervene in Libya. AFP/Getty

Terrorists and other extremist armed groups in Libya benefit from these criminal activities. Libyas porous borders also benefit terror organizations; ISIS has launched attacks from Libya in neighboring countries such as Tunisia as well as in Europe.

These threats are products, rather than causes, of instability and the absence of rule of law in Libya.

The Libyan coast guards cooperation with powerful armed militia groups in the countrys coastal cities has led to criticisms of human rights abuses. UN investigators and activists have accused some armed groups of patrolling migrant sea crossings in order to protect their own criminal interests.

And while ISIS was pushed out of its Libyan stronghold in Sirte in late 2016 with the help of US airstrikes, the group is by no means eradicated from the country. ISIS may seek to draw on Libyas criminal networks as it regroups.

The UN-backed Presidency Council and Government of National Accord (PC/GNA), meanwhile, remain unable to assert authority over the country as it battles both the opposition in Tripoli and faces opponents in the east.

Against this backdrop, Italy has repeatedly called on the international community, including the United States, to elevate solving the conflict in Libya as a priority for global stability.

So far, those calls appeared to have fallen on deaf ears; Trump in March said that he did not foresee a role for the United States in Libya beyond counterterrorism.

However, the report by CNN could indicate that the administrations view has shifted or that individuals within the administration that recognize the importance of stabilizing Libya may prevail in crafting a Libya policy.

Moreover, a recent meeting between US Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Italian Defense Minister Roberta Pinotti emphasized US and Italian cooperation on terrorism and the migrant crisis; and therefore the importance of solving the Libyan crisis.

According to the CNN report, the new policy for Libya would aim to support reconciliation between rival factions in the east and west and would send up to fifty US special operations troops to Libya on a rotating basis to engage in counterintelligence sharing, as well as possible training of Libyan forces.

The Libya policy would also seek to reopen the US embassy in Tripoli and re-establish a US presence in the city of Benghazi.

This plan could face several immediate challenges. The first of which is the ongoing proxy war in Libya that has severely weakened the PC/GNA.

The United States will need to convince Egypt and the United Arab Emirates to cease their proxy support for the House of Representatives and Khalifa Haftar in the east and push for all parties to come to the negotiating table, led by the UN, in good faith.

Meanwhile, on the issue of training, European training programs for Libyan troops have not seen much success, and US efforts to train forces in Syria in the fight against ISIS also witnessed little progress.

The reestablishment of a US diplomatic presence in Tripoli would send a powerful message of support for the PC/GNA. Italys move earlier this year to become the first Western diplomatic mission to reopen its embassy in Tripoli was a significant vote of confidence for the UN-backed government.

However, fighting continues near Tripoli between rival militia forces opposed to and aligned with the PC/GNA. And although Haftar recently proclaimed Benghazi liberated from Islamists by his Libyan National Army, security in the city remains uncertain.

In particular, the statement in the CNN report that the new policy would call for closer cooperation and intelligence sharing with Haftar, should be viewed warily. It is clear that the eastern strongman must be included in a settlement to end the Libyan conflict.

However, in any settlement, a strong central government must be empowered to establish authority and promote good governance; Haftar cannot rule the country militarily. Should Haftar continue to refuse to accept civilian oversight, US intelligence sharing with him and his Libyan National Army would damage the credibility of the PC/GNA.

The United States should pursue a new policy on Libya in coordination with key European partners including Italy that elevates the stabilization of the country as the primary goal.

In doing so, emphasis should be placed on eradicating criminal networks in Libya that exacerbate the migrant issue and empower terror groups. These are the two threats that most significantly impact European national security and therefore the security interests of the United States.

Moreover, greater stability in the country could contribute to empowering the PC/GNA to undertake critical reconstruction efforts.

Italy should continue to press the Trump administration on the importance of stabilizing Libya. Coordinated Western engagement is necessary to end insecurity in the country, address major threats to shared transatlantic interests, and support Libyan efforts to find a negotiated solution to the crisis.

Karim Mezran is a resident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East.

Elissa Miller is an assistant director at the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East.

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With ISIS on the Brink of Defeat, Is Trump Planning a Surge in Libya? - Newsweek

The steady recovery of oil production in Libya and Nigeria in recent months has prompted OPEC to consider limiting the output of the two African producers that are currently exempt from cuts in the deal.

The Joint OPEC-Non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is gathering in Russia on July 24, and has invited Nigeria and Libya to attend to discuss their current production and short-term plans. According to Kuwaits Oil Minister Issam Almarzooq, OPEC might ask the two nations to cap output as soon as possible.

Talk of Libya and Nigeria possibly capping crude production has had little effect on the market, and analysts doubt that a limit would be lower than the current production of the two countries. Observers think that the two producers would agree to cap output when they reach their short-term production targets, which is 1.25 million bpd for Libya and 1.8 million bpd for Nigeria.

If those two OPEC members were to limit output when they reach their desired respective levels of production, all other participants may have to review their quotas to compensate for the African duos increased output, some analysts reckon.

That is, if OPEC and friends really want to do whatever it takes to erase the global oversupply and lift the price of oil.

According to OPECs latest Monthly Oil Market Report, Libya and Nigeria contributed the most to the 393,000-bpd increase in the cartels total crude output in June compared to May. Libyas output jumped by 127,000 bpd to 852,000 bpd, while Nigerian crude production rose by 96,700 bpd to 1.733 million bpd.

The combined Libya-Nigeria production growth last month was nearly half of what OPECs biggest producer, Saudi Arabia, must cut under the deal. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the two exempt producers increased their combined output in the past two monthsMay and Juneby 440,000 bpd, almost the entire volume that Saudi Arabia is taking off the market each month.

So production growth in Libya and Nigeria is really offsetting a large part of the OPEC cuts. Related:The Major Wildcard That Could Send Oil To $120

Libya is right on track to reach its goal to raise crude output to1 million bpdby the end of July.

Nigeria, for its part, signaled on Wednesday that it would be willing to cap when it reaches a stable production of 1.8 million bpd, according to Oil Minister Emmanuel Kachikwu.

"You have to watch it for a couple of months to be sure that what you see as peace is in fact sustained, Kachikwu noted.

Nigeria is very close to reaching 1.8 million bpd, with June production averaging 1.733 million bpd per OPEC secondary sources.

According to Nordine Ait-Laoussine, president of Geneva-based consultant Nalcosa and former energy minister of Algeria, bringing Libya and Nigeria on board without revising the quotas for other members would only be exacerbating the problem of excess supply.

Its not going to be easy just to say Maybe we should just bring Nigeria and Libya into the line and it will be fine, Ait-Laoussine told Bloomberg.

And if Libya and Nigeria do reach their desired production levels, total OPEC output could be close to 33 million bpd by the end of this year, according to Ait-Laoussine.

OPEC would be producing too much if the other quotas are left unchanged, he said.

However, revising the parameters for the cuts would be like OPEC opening a big can of worms, Thomas Pugh, commodities economist at Capital Economics Ltd, told Bloomberg. There is little political will to deepen the cuts, according to Pugh.

Analysts and investment banks have been warning for some time that without steeper cuts by OPEC, oil prices could slip to US$30. The deeper cuts narrative has been going on since the market and OPEC itself had to admit that the oversupply is not diminishing at the pace the cartel had expected. In one of the most recent comments on the topic, OPECs Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said that no further cuts are on the agenda for the July meeting of the JMMC in Russia.

While OPEC and Russian officials are saying that nothing is off the table and nothing is on the table every other day, analysts and investment banks are increasingly citing rising supply from Libya and Nigeria as the main driver together with U.S. shale for the drastic cuts in their oil price forecasts. Earlier this week, BNP Paribas slashed its WTI forecast for 2017 by US$8 to US$49 per barrel and the Brent forecast by US$9 to US$51. The cuts in the 2018 forecasts were even more drastic - down US$16 to US$45 for WTI, and US$15 off the Brent price projection, to US$48. BNP Paribas is the latest bank to slash forecasts in a series of cuts in oil price projections that major banks have made over the past month.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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Capping Libya, Nigeria Output Won't Help Erase The Glut - OilPrice.com

TRIPOLI (Reuters) - Clashes between rival Libyan factions east of Tripoli extended into a second day on Monday, keeping the coastal road shut and preventing residents from returning to their homes, a local town council spokesman said.

The fighting began on Sunday when armed groups opposed to the U.N.-backed government in Tripoli tried to approach the capital and met resistance from rival groups that have aligned themselves with the government.

It is the latest in a series of attacks by armed opponents of the Government of National Accord (GNA), which have continued despite the GNA's attempts to win the cooperation of militias operating in the city and to calm bouts of violence inside or close to the capital.

"At the moment we can hear heavy gunfire," said Al-Shareef Jaballah, a spokesman for the municipality of Garabulli, about 50 km (30 miles) from Tripoli, speaking to Reuters by telephone shortly after midday.

"The clashes have resulted in severe damage to houses and shops because of indiscriminate shelling, and forced a large number of residents ... to flee," he said.

"The coastal road is still closed. The residents who have fled their homes are trapped because of the closure of the road."

The health ministry later confirmed that at least four people including two foreign workers had been killed and 21 wounded over two days of fighting.

The GNA has struggled to impose its authority since arriving in Tripoli in March last year. It has been rejected by factions that control eastern Libya, where military commander Khalifa Haftar has been consolidating his position and installing military-appointed mayors.

As temperatures have climbed this month, parts of western Libya have once again been suffering from power and water cuts that residents have criticised the GNA for failing to resolve.

Reporting by Ahmed Elumami; Writing by Aidan Lewis; Editing by Gareth Jones and James Dalgleish

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Fighting persists east of Libya capital, residents displaced: town official - Reuters

News Roundup - Thu, Jul 13, 2017 The Libya Observer Benghazi Defense Brigades said it has nothing to do with political conflicts or military ones in the west of Libya, denying the news on social media that said it was involved in the clashes in east Tripoli. It added that such news aims at deforming the ... and more »

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News Roundup - Thu, Jul 13, 2017 - The Libya Observer

A series of military victories over extremist Islamic groups along Libya's Mediterranean coastline has forced hundreds of militants, including Islamic State fighters, to seek refuge in the vast deserts of the North African nation, already home to militias from neighboring countries, cross-border criminal gangs and mercenaries.

Libya's lawless, desolate center and south provides a sanctuary for militants to reorganize, recruit, train and potentially plot for a comeback. That is especially important at a time when the Islamic State group lost not only its urban holdings in Libya but is crumbling in Iraq and Syria.

In Libya's remote stretches near the borders with Egypt, Sudan, Chad, Algeria, Niger and Tunisia, multiple armed groups already operate freely. Arms are easily available. Human trafficking and cross-border smuggling, especially fuel, are rampant and lucrative.

Lack of effective border controls has allowed militiamen fighting the Sudanese and Chadian governments to set up camp inside Libya. Alongside them came soldiers-for-hire from places as far afield as Cameroon. Tribal and ethnic rivalries frequently boil over into deadly strife.

Militants "travel back and forth near the southern borders and all the way to the central parts of the country, robbing travelling cars and attacking civilians," said Brig. Gen. Abdullah Nouredeen of the Libyan National Army. "They sometimes work close to the borders since there is money to be made from smuggling and arms trading."

The migration of the militants comes after rivals drove them out of coastal cities like Sirte, Benghazi, Sebratha and Derna. Their dispersion into the desert undermines prospects for a return of stability in oil-rich Libya.

Claudia Gazzini, the International Crisis Group's senior Libya analyst, said IS militants were generally lying low in the desert south of the coastline, moving in small convoys so as not to attract attention or just going home. Others, she explained, were active around Sirte, staging occasional attacks against their adversaries.

Going forward, she said, IS remnants will likely try to influence and win over groups opposed to Gen. Khalifa Hifter, the Egyptian-backed commander of Libya's national army who has been fighting militants.

"We are already seeing signs that this may have already happened," she said.

Sensing danger, Egypt has begun to closely monitor its borders with Sudan and Libya, fearing the area could turn into a major staging ground for attacks inside its territory. Egypt has said IS militants fighting its security forces in the Sinai Peninsula receive arms and fighters from Libya. It said militants behind recent deadly attacks against Christians were trained in Libya and sneaked into Egypt across the porous desert border.

Like the rest of Libya, the desert towns and villages in the country's central and southern regions have seen law and order vanish since the 2011 ouster and death of dictator Moammar Gadhafi. Across the country, militias many of them with Islamist ideologies have carved out fiefdoms, imposing their will on local administrations.

Some estimates put the number of full-time militiamen in Libya at around 120,000 and IS fighters around 1,000, but there is no way to independently verify these figures.

Gen. Hifter has sought to drive out Islamic militants and bring the center and south under his control but with limited success. He said he intends to seal off Libya's borders with Egypt, Sudan and Chad by early July to stop the flow of arms, fighters and migrants.

It is widely believed, however, that his forces don't have the resources to enforce order in the vast region or take on the hardened militants and militiamen there.

In a sign of desperation over deteriorating security, Libya's national oil company halted shipments to the south, after a series of hijackings of convoys delivering fuel. Invariably, the fuel surfaced later in the black market or in neighboring countries.

The following are key geographical locations for the militants and armed groups:

ZAMZAM VALLEY:

Zamzam Valley is south of Misrata about 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the coast. Scores of IS militants found refuge there after they were defeated last year by militiamen loyal to the U.N.-backed government in Tripoli after a months-long battle. IS fighters in Zamzam Valley occasionally launch attacks against Misrata, the hometown of the militia that drove them out of Sirte, as well as kidnap travelers or attacks checkpoints.

AL-AWAYNAT:

This location in the remote southwestern corner of Libya close to the borders of Algeria and Niger has become something of a "mercenaries central" because of the hundreds of guns-for hire stationed there. The men, mostly from Chad, Niger and Cameroon, are hired mostly to fight under the banners of different militias. They make an average of $2,000 a month when hired. Militias and criminal groups in al-Awaynat, meanwhile, make money from human trafficking, kidnappings for ransom and smuggling of weapons, drugs and fuel.

AL-KUFRA:

Small cells of IS and al-Qaida fighters are believed to have moved to the outskirts of this oasis city in southeast Libya in recent months. Al-Kufra has for decades been torn by a deadly conflict pitting the Arab Alzway tribes against the sub-Saharan African Tabu group, which inhabits a large swath of territory stretching across northern Chad, southern Libya, northwestern Sudan and northeastern Niger.

Alzway dominate the city and accuse the Tabu of harboring criminals and militants from Sudan and Chad. The Tabu deny the charges. Militias from both sides are involved in tit-for-tat raids that often target civilians. The conflict is widely seen as a rivalry over control of border crossings and lucrative smuggling routes.

Two brigades from Hifter's Libyan National Army are stationed at al-Kufra, but they don't have the manpower or resources to enforce law and order in the vast desert area.

SABHA:

Most of the hundreds of militants who managed to flee the assault on Sirte last year are thought to have made it near this town in central Libya.

It was a perfect destination. The city is virtually out of control, with several ongoing conflicts. The main players are Awlad Suleiman, an ethnically Arab tribe, and the Tabu and Twareg, all of whom have for years been vying for a bigger slice of the smuggling trade.

Anti-government militiamen from Sudan and Chad provide a pool of mercenaries for any armed group. They are also involved in cross-border arms smuggling, according to local politician Youssef Kalourki.

IS fighters in the area keep a low profile, spending most of their time in valleys and mountains outside the city.

In May, forces loyal to Hifter seized a nearby air base and several localities. It was a significant victory, but Hifter's forces remain a long way away from controlling the region.

UBARI:

This town southwest of Sabha saw fierce fighting among rival criminal gangs in 2015 that displaced almost the entire population. The hostilities were triggered by an attempt by several militias to control the black market in subsidized fuel provided by the Tripoli government.

Radical militant groups in the area, including al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, are known to be involved in the illicit trade, selling the fuel in neighboring countries for at least 10 times the price in Libya.

Hendawi reported from Cairo.

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Militants find sanctuary in Libya's wild south - ABC News